No description available.

Every year floods are responsible of a significant number of human losses, many of which could be avoided with a broader implementation of flood forecasting systems. Nevertheless, there are still some technological and economic limitations that impede the creation of these systems in many parts of the world. At the core of many flood forecasting systems is a hydrologic model that transforms the weather forecast into a flow forecast. Using real-time modeling for potential floods poses a series of problems: if the model is complex, the computational power required can be significant, and consequently expensive, and if the model is simple enough to run on regular computers in the time allotted, it is likely that the results will not be accurate enough to be useful. I propose the development of a standardized method for using pre-computed scenarios as an alternative to real-time flood modeling. I explain how pre-computing has been used on other realms in the past, and how it is beginning to be implemented in different branches of hydrology, the prediction coastal flooding due to storms or tsunamis being one of the most developed. My research has focused on answering the questions that arise during the design stage of a flood forecasting system not only for rain or snow driven floods, but also by anthropogenic-produced floods. I analyze the number of parameters and their granularity to be used to create the scenarios, the accuracy of the results, different strategies to implement the systems, etc. Finally, I present some test-cases of the application of the method, and assess their results.

No description available.

KINEROS and PSRM-QUAL:J two distributed parameter event-based hydrologic models, were applied to Foster Creek Watershed, Louisa County, Virginia. The simulations of the two models were conducted using published data and a ten year database from the Foster Creek Watershed, Louisa County, Virginia. Data management and analysis was supported through the use of PC-VirGIS, a DOS based GIS package developed by the Information Support Systems Laboratory, Virginia Tech. The performance of the two models were based on the criteria established to compare the simulated and recorded peak discharge rates , total runoff volumes and time to peak. Goodness of fit criteria were based on graphic comparison relative error, model efficiency, linear regression, hypothesis testing and variance. Based on these measurements, the simulated results by both models were acceptable. KINEROS generally made better predictions of peak discharge rate and time to peak. Hydrograph shapes also generally matched the recorded sequence more closely. PSRM-QUAL simulated the total runoff volume slightly better than KINEROS. The sensitivity of KINER OS and PSRM-QUAL to the model input parameters was evaluated. For KINEROS, peak discharge rate and runoff volume were very sensitive to changes in rainfall amount, saturated hydraulic conductivity and effective capillary drive. For PSRM-QUAL, peak discharge rate and total runoff volume were very sensitive to changes in SCS CN, initial abstraction coefficient and rainfall amount. / Master of Science

Thesis (M.Ing.)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The objective of this research has been to compare nonpoint sources assessment techniques for simulating phosphorous production in rural catchments which have a variety ofland use types. Four nonpoint source assessment techniques capable of simulating phosphorous production, operating at different spatial and temporal resolutions, were selected after an intensive literature review. The model selection criteria included the capability to simulate phosphorous production, the need for the study to cover a range of spatial and temporal resolutions, model data requirements, model affordability and availability in South Africa. The models selected using these criteria are the Phosphorous Export Model (PEM) (Weddepohl & Meyer, 1992), Impoundment and River Management and Planning Assessment Tool for Water Quality Simulation Model (IMPAQ) (DWAF,1995), the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) (Bricknell,1993) and the Agricultural Catchments Research Unit Model (ACRU) (Smithers and Caldecott, 1994). Four ofthe study catchments were selected within the Berg River basin in the Western Cape and the remaining four were selected within the Amatole catchments in the Eastern Cape. The four subcatchments in the Berg River basin are the Twenty-Four Rivers, Leeu River, Kompanjies River and Doring River catchments and the four in the Amatole catchments are the Upper Buffalo, Cwencwe, Yellowwoods and Gqunube River catchments. The range of land use/cover types comprises: Western Cape catchments : wheat, grapes, natural vegetation and forestry Eastern Cape catchments : natural vegetation and forestry The PEM and IMPAQ models were applied reasonably successfully to all the catchments to simulate phosphorous production, with the observed flow as the input. The HSPF model could not successfully be applied to the catchments to simulate both the catchment hydrology and phosphorous production. Hence, the investigation into HSPF was abandoned, and in its place, the ACRU daily phosphorous yield model was incorporated at a fairly late stage in the research. ACRU was applied to only the Western Cape catchments. The estimated parameters for different land use types were compared to investigate the potential for parameter transfer in space and time. Both the PEM and IMP AQ models showed promise that land use parameters could be transferred in time for catchments located in the Western Cape catchments, but did not show promise for catchments located in the Eastern Cape. The IMPAQ model showed promise that land use parameters could be transferred in space for catchments located in the Eastern Cape, but did not perform as well in the Western Cape catchments. The PEM model showed promise that land use parameters could be transferred in space for catchments located in the Western Cape, but did not perform as well in the Eastern Cape. Since the ACRU phosphorous yield model was included at a late stage of the research, the potential for land use parameter transfer in space and time could not investigated. The model results were verified at the relevant flow and water quality gauging stations. The ACRU phosphorous model verification results showed promise for catchments located in humid parts of the Berg River basin, but did not perform as well in the catchment located in the semi-arid part. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH: I. Intensive research should be undertaken to develop a database ofland use parameters/ export coefficients related to phosphorous production (and other non-conservative constituents) in South African catchments. Availability of these parameters would make phosphorous modelling much easier. HSPF should be configured and calibrated, more especially its water quality component, for catchments with hourly rainfall and rainfall stations located within/on the catchment boundaries, to investigate its performance under South African conditions. Given the complexity of the HSPF algorithms and the time required to familiarise oneself with the model, it is recommended that such an investigation be undertaken which is not inclusive of any other models. The spatial resolution ofPEM is extremely coarse, and should be improved to allow the user to partition the total flow in the catchment according to contributions from the variety ofland use types and to estimate soluble and particulate phosphorous parameters for each land use type. A study should be undertaken to investigate the potential for the ACRU phosphorous yield model parameter transfer in time and space. Sampling frequency of water quality data in South Africa should be improved, because it is difficult to assess the performance of the calibrated water quality models, more especially phosphorous export models, due to a lack of continuous data sets. Rainfall data collection in gauged catchments, more especially Western Cape catchments (e.g. Twenty-Four Rivers, Leeu, Kompanjies and the Doring River catchments), should be improved. There should be at least one rainfall gauging station located within the catchment boundaries. This would contribute towards achieving reasonable hydrological calibration or verification. Since runoff is the driving factor for water quality components, improved hydrological calibration/verification would result in reasonable water quality calibration/verification. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van die navorsing was om die simulering van fosfaat produksie in landelike gebiede, wat 'n verskeidenheid grondgebruike het, met behulp van nie-punt bron evaluerings tegnieke te evulaeer. Vier nie-punt bron evaluerings tegnieke, met die vermoë om fosfaat produksie op verskillende ruimtelike en tyds resolusies te simuleer, is gekies na 'n intensiewe ondersoek van beskikbare literatuur. Die kriteria vir die keuse van die model het ingesluit die vermoë om fosfaat produksie te simuleer, die behoefte vir die studie om 'n reeks van ruimtelike en tyds resolusies te simuleer, model data vereistes, model bekostigbaarheid en beskikbaarheid in Suid Afrika. Die gekose modelle, gebaseer op bogemelde kriteria, was die PEM, IMPAQ, HSPF en ACRU modelle. Vier van die opvanggebiede gebruik in die studie, was in die Bergrivier bekken in die Wes-Kaap en vier was in die Amatole opvanggebiede in die Oos-Kaap. Die vier opvanggebiede in die Bergrivier bekken is die Vier-en- Twentigriviere, Leeurivier, Kompanjiesrivier en die Doringrivier en die vier opvanggebiede in die Amatole opvanggebiede is die Bo-Buffels, Cwencwe, Yellowwoods, en die Gunubierivier opvanggebiede. Grondgebruik beslaan die volgende: Wes-Kaap opvanggebiede : koring, druiwe, natuurlike weiding en plantasies. Oos-Kaap : natuurlike plantegroei en plantasies Die PEM en IMPAQ modelle is met redelike sukses in al die opvanggebiede gebruik vir die simulasie van fosfaat produksie, met die waargenome vloei as invoer. Die HSPF model kan nie met enige sukses gebruik word om beide die opvanggebied hidrologie en fosfaat produksie, te simuleer nie. Die HSPF model is dus uitgeskakel en in 'n redelike laat stadium van die studie met die ACRU daaglikse fosfaat leweringsmodel vervang. Die ACRU model is net op die Wes-Kaap opvanggebiede toegepas. Die beraamde parameters vir die verskillende grondgebruik tipes is vergelyk om die potensiaal vir parameter oordrag in ruimte en tyd te ondersoek. Beide die PEM en IMPAQ modelle het belowend vertoon ten opsigte van die oordrag van grondgebruik parameters in tyd vir opvanggebiede in die Wes- Kaap, maar het geensins belowend vertoon vir die Oos-Kaap opvanggebiede nie. Die IMPAQ model het belowend vertoon ten opsigte van die ruimtelike oordrag van grondgebruik parameters vir die Oos-Kaap opvanggebiede, maar het nie so goed vertoon in die Wes-Kaap opvanggebiede nie. Die PEM model het belowend vertoon ten opsigte van die ruimtelike oordrag dat grondgebruikte parameters in die Wes-Kaap opvanggebiede is, maar het nie so goed in die Oos-Kaap opvanggebiede vertoon nie. Aangesien die ACRU fosfaat leweringsmodel op 'n laat stadium van die navorsing ingesluit is, kan die potensiaal vir die oordrag van grondgebruik parameters in ruimte en tyd nie ondersoek word nie. Die model resultate is by die toepaslike vloei en waterkwaliteit meetstasies geverifiëer Die resultate van die ACRU fosfaat model verifikasie het belowend vertoon vir opvangebiede in die humiede gedeeltes van die Bergrivier bekken, maar het nie so goed vertoon in die semi-droeë deel van die opvangebied nie. AANBEVELINGS VIR VERDERE NAVORSING : Y4 Intensiewe navorsing moet onderneem word ten einde in 'n databasis van grondgebruik parameters/oordrag koëffisiente met betrekking tot fosfaat produksie (en ander niekonserwatiewe bestandelle ) in Suid Afrikaanse opvanggebiede op te bou. Beskikbaarheid van hierdie parameters sal fosfaat modellering vergemaklik. Die HSPF model moet opgestel en gekalibreer word, meer spesifiek ten opsigte van die waterkwaliteit komponent, vir opvanggebiede met uurlikse reënval en reënvalstasies binne of op die opvanggebied grense, om die model se vertoning onder Suid Afrikaanse omstandighede te ondersoek. Gegewe die kompleksiteit van die HSPF algoritmes en tyd benodig om met model vertroud te raak, word dit aanbeveel dat so 'n ondersoek onderneem word met uitsluiting van die ander modelle. Die ruimtelike resolusie van die PEM model is uitermatig grof, en behoort verbeter te word ten einde die gebruiker toe te laat om die totale vloei in die opvanggebied in ooreenstemming met die bydraes van die onderskeie grondgebruik tipes te verdeel en om oplosbare en partikulere fosfaat parameters vir elke grondgebruik tipe te beraam. 'n Studie om die potensiaal vir die ruimtelike en tydsoordrag van die ACRU fosfaat leweringsmodel parameters te ondersoek, moet onderneem word. Die frekwensie van waterkwaliteit monitering in Suid Afrika moet verbeter word, aangesien dit moelik is om, weens 'n gebrek aan deurlopend waargenome data, die vertoning van gekalibreerde waterkwaliteit modelle te ondersoek, meer spesifiek nog fosfaat uitvoer modelle. Reënval inligting versameling in gemete opvanggebied, meer spesifiek die Wes-Kaap opvanggebiede (bv.Vier-en-Twintigriviere, Leeu, Kompanjies en Doringrivier opvanggebiede), behoort verbeter te word. Daar behoort ten minste een reënval stasie binne die opvanggebied grense te wees. Dit sal bydra tot die bereiking van redelike hidrologiese kalibrasie ofverifikasie. Aangesien afloop die dryfveer van die waterkwaliteit komponente is, sal verbeterde hidrologiese kalibrasie/verifikasie lei tot redelike waterkwaliteit kalibrasie/verifikasie.

A Disaggregation model was tested for arid land stream flow generating. The test was performed on data from Black River, near Fort Apache, Arizona. The model was tested in terms of preserving the relevant historical statistics on both monthly and daily levels, the monthly time series were disaggregated to a random observation of their daily components and the daily components were then reaggregated to yield monthly values. A computer model (DSGN) was developed to perform the model implementation. The model was written and executed on the Macintosh plus personal computer Data from two months were studied; the October data represented the low flow season, while the April data represented the high flow season. Twenty five years of data for each month was used. The generated data for the two months was compared with the historical data.

Abstract not available

"May 2002" Includes list of papers published during this study Errata slip inserted inside back cover of v. 1 Includes bibliographical references (leaves 331-357) V. 1. [Text} -- v. 2. Appendices Develops an alternative design flood estimation methodology. Establishing a relationship between catchment characteristics and the rainfall excess frequency duration proportions enables the definition of these proportions for generic catchment types, increasing the potential for translation to catchments with limited data but similar hydrographic properties, thereby improving design process.

"May 2002" / Includes list of papers published during this study / Errata slip inserted inside back cover of v. 1 / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 331-357) / 2 v. : ill. (some col.), col. maps ; 30 cm. / Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library. / Develops an alternative design flood estimation methodology. Establishing a relationship between catchment characteristics and the rainfall excess frequency duration proportions enables the definition of these proportions for generic catchment types, increasing the potential for translation to catchments with limited data but similar hydrographic properties, thereby improving design process. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Adelaide, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2002

Thesis (M.S.)--University of Tennessee, Knoxville, 2003. / Title from title page screen (viewed Mar. 22, 2004). Thesis advisor: Carol P. Harden. Document formatted into pages (x, 149 p. : col. ill., col. maps). Vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 72-78).