To meet society’s needs for water, food, fuel and fibre the natural land cover throughout the world has been extensively altered. These alterations have impacted on hydrological responses and thus on available water resources, as the hydrological responses of a catchment are dependent upon, and sensitive to, changes in the land use. Similarly, changes in the climate through enhanced carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere have resulted in increased temperature and altered precipitation patterns that alter hydrological responses. In combination, land use change and global climate change form a complex and interactive system, whereby both human influences and climate change manipulate land use patterns, and changes in land uses feed back to influence the climate system, with both impacting on hydrological responses. Relatively few studies have been undertaken examining the combined impacts of climate change and land use change on water resources, with no consensus emerging as yet as to combined influence of land use change and climate change on hydrological responses and the role of geographical characteristics in determining the overriding influence. There is, however, agreement that the effect on hydrological responses will be amplified. Given that South Africa is currently water stressed and considered to be highly exposed to climate change impacts, an understanding of hydrological responses to the complex interactions between land use and climate change is crucial to allow for improved integration of land use planning in conjunction with climate change adaptation into water resources management. To determine the sensitivity of land use to changing climate, a sensitivity study assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the areas climatically suitable for key plantation forestry species was undertaken. Under sensitivity scenarios of climate change the climatically optimum areas for specific forest species were shown to shift, with optimum areas changing in extent and location between and within South Africa’s provinces. With potential for shifts in land use due to climate change shown, the imperative to improve understanding of the dynamics between land use and climate change as well as the subsequent impacts on hydrological responses was further established. For the assessment of climate-land use-water interactions, a process-based hydrological model, sensitive to land use and climate, and changes thereof, viz. the daily time step ACRU model was selected. In order to increase the confidence in results from the model in a study such as this, its representation of reality was confirmed by comparing simulated streamflow output against observations across a range of climatic conditions and land uses. This comparison was undertaken in the three diverse South African catchments chosen for the study, viz. the semi-arid, sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment in the north of the country, which has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas, the Upper Breede catchment in the winter rainfall regions of the south, where the primary land uses are commercial orchards and vineyards, and the sub-humid Mgeni catchment along the eastern seaboard, where plantation forestry is dominant in the upper reaches, commercial plantation sugarcane and urban areas in the middle reaches, and urban areas dominate the lower reaches. Thus, in effect a space for time study was undertaken, thereby reducing the uncertainty of the model’s ability to cope with the projected future climate scenarios. Overall the ACRU model was able to represent the high, low and total flows, and thus it was concluded that the model could be used with confidence to simulate the streamflows of the three selected catchments and was able to represent the hydrological responses from the range of climates and diversity of land uses present within the catchments. With the suitability of the model established for the theme of this research, the understanding of the complex interactions between hydrological responses and land use could be improved. The hydrological responses of the three selected catchments to land use change were varied. Results showed that the location of specific land uses within a catchment plays an important role in the response of the streamflow of the catchment to that land use change. Furthermore, it was shown that the contributions of different land uses to the streamflow generated from a catchment are not proportional to the relative area of those land uses, and the relative contribution of the land use to the catchment streamflow varies with the annual rainfall of the catchment. With an improved understanding of the dynamics between land uses and hydrological responses, the impacts of climate change on hydrological responses were assessed prior to analysing the combined impacts on land use and climate change. Five plausible climate projections from three coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models covering three SRES emissions scenarios which were downscaled with the RCA3 regional climate model and adjusted using the distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach for bias correction were used as climate input to the ACRU model, with future projections applied to a baseline land cover scenario compared to historical climate applied to the same baseline land cover scenario. No consistent direction of change in the streamflow responses was evident in the Mgeni and Luvuvhu catchments. However, decreases in streamflow responses were evident for all five scenarios for the Upper Breede. With an understanding of the separate impacts of land use and climate change on hydrological responses, an analysis of the combined impacts was undertaken to determine which changes were projected to be of greater importance in different geographical locations. Results indicated that the drier the climate becomes, the relatively more significant the role of land use becomes, as its impact becomes relatively greater. The impacts of combined land use and climate change on the catchments’ streamflow responses varied across both the temporal and spatial scales, with the nature of the land use and the magnitude of the projected climate change having significant impacts on the streamflow responses. From the research undertaken, the key results were • that the climatic variable to which plantation forestry species are most sensitive is rainfall; • that optimum growth areas for plantation forestry are projected to shift under changing climates, having a potentially significant impact on the landscape and thus on the hydrological responses from the landscape; • that the daily time-step, physical-conceptual and process-based ACRU model is appropriate for use in land use change and climatic change impact studies as shown through a space for time study; • that the contributions of different land uses to the streamflow generated from a catchment is not proportional to the relative area of that land use and that, as the mean annual precipitation of a subcatchment decreases, so the disparities between the relative areas a land use occupies and its contribution to catchment streamflow increases; • that specific land use changes have a greater impact on different components of the hydrological response of a catchment; • that land uses which currently have significant impacts on catchment water resources will place proportionally greater impacts on the catchment’s water resources if the climate were to become drier; thus the drier the climate becomes, the more relatively significant the role of land use becomes; • that when considering any hydrological impacts of land use change, climate change or combined land use and climate change, assessments need to consider the scale where the localized impacts may be evident, the progression of the impacts as the streamflow cascades through the catchment, as well as the impacts at the whole catchment scale where the accumulation of the effects through the catchment are evident; and lastly • that each catchment is unique with its own complexities, feed forwards and feedbacks, thus each catchment will have a unique threshold as to where land use change or climate change begins to have a significant influence of the hydrological response. Given these complex interactions between land use, climate and water, there is a growing imperative to improve the understanding of the movement of water within catchments, to be receptive and adaptive to new concepts and information, and to developing resilient and adaptive water management strategies for the future in a way that minimises the risks and maximises the benefits to potential impacts of climate change. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2012.

The temporal distribution of rainfall , viz. the distribution of rainfall intensity during a storm, is an important factor affecting the timing and magnitude of peak flow from a catchment and hence the flood-generating potential of rainfall events. It is also one of the primary inputs into hydrological models used for hydraulic design purposes. The use of short duration rainfall data inherently accounts for the temporal distribution of rainfall, however, there is a relative paucity of short duration data when compared to the more abundantly available daily data. One method of overcoming this is to disaggregate courser-scale data to a finer resolution, e.g. daily to hourly. A daily to hourly rainfall disaggregation model developed by Boughton (2000b) in Australia has been modified and applied in South Africa. The primary part of the model is the . distribution of R, which is the fraction of the daily total that occurs in the hour of maximum rainfall. A random number is used to sample from the distribution of R at the site of interest. The sample value of R determines the other 23 values, which then undergo a clustering procedure. This clustered sequence is then arranged into 1 of 24 possible temporal arrangements, depending when the hour the maximum rainfall occurs. The structure of the model allows for the production of 480 different temporal distributions with variation between uniform and non-uniform rainfall. The model was then regionalised to allow for application at sites where daily rainfall data, but no short duration data, were available. The model was evaluated at 15 different locations in differing climatic regions in South Africa. At each location, observed hourly rainfall data were aggregated to yield 24-hour values and these were then disaggregated using the methodology. Results show that the model is able to retain the daily total and most of the characteristics of the hourly rainfall at the site, for when both at-site and regional information are used. The model, however, is less capable of simulating statistics related to the sequencing of hourly rainfalls, e.g. autocorrelations. The model also tends to over-estimate design rainfalls, particularly for the shorter durations . / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2005.

South African commercial plantations occupy an estimated 1.5 million hectares of the country and as the demands for timber products increase, this area is expected to increase. However, further expansion is limited, not only by the suitability of land, but also by the pressures from other water users. As a result the need has arisen for simulation models that can aid decisionmakers and planners in their evaluation of the water requirements of forestry versus competing land uses at different spatial scales. Different models exist to perform such tasks and range from simple empirical models to more complex physically-based models. The policies of the National Water Act (1998) relating to forestry serve to highlight the requirements of a model used for the assessment of afforestation impacts and these are discussed in this document. There is a perception that physically-based distributed models are best suited for estimation of afforestation impacts on a catchment's water yield since their physical basis allows for extrapolation to different catchments without calibration. Furthermore, it is often stated that the model parameters have physical meaning and can therefore be estimated from measurable variables. In this regard, a review of physically-based modelling approaches and a comparison of two such hydrological models forms the main focus of this dissertation. The models evaluated were the South African ACRU model and the Australian topography-based Macaque model. The primary objective of this research was to determine whether topography-based modelling (Macaque model) provides an improved simulation of water yield from forested catchments, particularly during the low flow period, compared to a physically-based model (ACRU model) that does not explicitly represent lateral sub-surface flow. A secondary objective was the evaluation of the suitability of these models for application in South Africa. Through a comparison of the two models' structures, the application of the models on two South African catchments and an analysis of the simulation results obtained, an assessment of the different physically-based modelling approaches was made. The strengths and shortcomings of the two models were determined and the following conclusions were drawn regarding the suitability of these modelling approaches for applications on forested catchments in South Africa:• The ACRU model structure was more suited to predictive modelling on operational catchments, whilst the more complex Macaque model's greatest limitation for application in South Africa was its high input requirements which could not be supported by the available data. • Despite data limitations and uncertainty, the Macaque model's topography-based representation of runoff processes resulted in improved low flow simulations compared to the results from the ACRU simulations, indicating that there are benefits associated with a topographically-based modelling approach. • The Macaque model's link to the Geographic Information System, Tarsier, provided an efficient means to configure the model, input spatial data and view output data. However, it was found that the ACRU model was more flexible in terms of being able to accurately represent the spatial and temporal variations of input parameters. Based on these findings, recommendations for future research include the. verification of internal processes of both the ACRU and Macaque models. This would require the combined measurement of both catchment streamflow and processes such as evapotranspiration. For the Macaque model to be verified more comprehensively and for its application in operational catchments it will be necessary to improve the representation of spatial and temporal changes in precipitation and vegetation parameters for South African conditions. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of Natal ,Pietermaritzburg, 2002.

This thesis describes the development of a decision support tool to be used in the operation of Vanderkloof Dam on the Orange River so that the supply of water to the lower Orange River can be optimised. The decision support tool is based on a hydrodynamic model that was customised to incorporate real time data recorded at several points on the river. By incorporating these data into the model the simulated flows are corrected to the actual flow conditions recorded on the river, thereby generating a best estimate of flow conditions at any given time. This information is then used as the initial conditions for forecast simulations to assess whether the discharge volumes and schedules from the dam satisfy the water demands of downstream users, some of which are 1400km or up to 8 weeks away. The various components of the decision support system, their functionality and their interaction are described. The details regarding the development of these components include: • The hydraulic model of the Orange River downstream of Vanderkloof Dam. The population and calibration of the model are described. • The modification of the code of the hydrodynamic engine so that real time recorded stage and flow data can be incorporated into the model • The development of a graphical user interface to facilitate the exchange of data between the real time network of flow gauging stations on the Orange River and the hydraulic model • The investigation into the effect of including the real time data on the simulated flows • Testing the effectiveness of the decision support system. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of Natal, Durban, 2002.

Bibliography: p. 474-514. / xli, 601 p. (some folded) : ill., maps (one col.) ; 30 cm. / Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Adelaide, 1995

Bibliography: p. 474-514. / xli, 601 p. (some folded) : ill., maps (one col.) ; 30 cm. / Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Adelaide, 1995

[Truncated abstract] During the last fifty years mathematical models of catchment hydrology have been widely developed and used for hydrologic forecasting, design and water resources management. Most of these models need large numbers of parameters to represent the flow generation process. The model parameters are estimated through calibration techniques and often lead to ‘unrealistic’ values due to structural error in the model formulations. This thesis presents a new strategy for developing catchment hydrology models for representing streamflow and salinity generation processes. The strategy seeks to ‘learn from data’ in order to specify a conceptual framework that is appropriate for the particular space and time scale under consideration. Initially, the conceptual framework is developed by considering large space and time scales. The space and time scales are then progressively reduced and conceptual model complexity systematically increased until ultimately, an adequate simulation of daily streamflow and salinity is achieved. This strategy leads to identification of a few key physically meaningful parameters, most of which can be estimated a priori and with minimal or no calibration. Initially, the annual streamflow data from ten experimental catchments (control and cleared for agriculture) were analysed. The streamflow increased in two phases: (i) immediately after clearing due to reduced evapotranspiration, and (ii) through an increase in stream zone saturated area. The annual evapotranspiration losses from native vegetation and pasture, the ‘excess’ water (resulting from reduced transpiration after land use change), runoff and deep storage were estimated by a simple water balance model. The model parameters are obtained a priori without calibration. The annual model was then elaborated by analysing the monthly rainfall-runoff, groundwater and soil moisture data from four experimental catchments. Ernies (control, fully forested) and Lemon (53% cleared) catchments are located in zone with a mean annual rainfall of 725 mm. Salmon (control, fully forested) and Wights (100% cleared) are located in zone with mean annual rainfall of 1125 mm. Groundwater levels rose and the stream zone saturated area increased significantly after clearing. From analysis of this data it was evident that at a monthly time step the conceptual model framework needed to include a systematic gain/loss to storage component in order to adequately describe the observed lags between peak monthly rainfall and runoff.

[Truncated abstract] The use of uncertainty analysis is gaining considerable attention in catchment hydrological modeling. In particular, the choice of an appropriate model structure, the identifiability of parameter values, and the reduction of model predictive uncertainty are deemed as essential elements of hydrological modelling. The chosen model structure must be parsimonious, and the parameters used must either be derivable from field measured data or inferred unambiguously from analysis of catchment response data. In this thesis, a long-term water balance model for the Susannah Brook catchment in Western Australia has been pursued using the ?downward approach?, which is a systematic approach to determine the model with the minimum level of complexity, with parameter values that in theory are derivable from existing physiographic data relating to the catchment. Through the analysis of the rainfall-runoff response at different timescales, and the exploration of the climate, soil and vegetation controls on the water balance response, an initial model structure was formulated, and a priori model parameter values estimated. Further investigation with the use of auxiliary data such as deuterium concentration in the stream and groundwater level data exposed inadequacies in the model structure. Two more model structures were then proposed and investigated through formulating alternative hypotheses regarding the underlying causes of observed variability, including those associated with the absence of a contribution of deep groundwater flow to the streamflow, which was indicated by deuterium concentration and internal dynamics characterized by the observed groundwater levels. ... These differences are due to differences in the time delay between rainfall and recharge between upland and riparian regions. The ages of water recharging the groundwater and discharging from the catchment were estimated by assuming a piston flow mechanism. In the deeper, upland soils, the age of recharging water was considerably larger than the unsaturated zone delay would suggest; a recharge response 16 days after an infiltration event may involve water as much as 160 days old. On the other hand, the delay and the age of recharging water were much lower in the shallow riparian zone. Where the upland zone contributes significantly to discharge, the predicted difference between the rainfall-discharge response time and the average age of discharging water can be significant.

Thesis (MSc (Geography and Environmental Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2005. / Since mechanised borehole drilling began in South Africa in the late 1800s, over 1 100 000 boreholes have been drilled. As the country’s growing population and the perceived impacts of climate change increase pressure on water surface supplies, attention is turning to groundwater to meet the shortfall in water supply. This will mean even more drilling will take place. Until the introduction of the Standard Descriptors for Boreholes, published in 2003, South Africa has not had a set of guidelines for borehole information capture. This document provides a detailed description of the basic information requirements needed to describe and characterise the process of drilling, constructing, developing, managing and monitoring a borehole. However, this document stands alone as a specification with little or no implementation or interpretation to date. Following the development and publishing of the ArcHydro data model for water resource management by the CRWR based at the University of Texas at Austin, there has been a great deal of interest in object-oriented data modelling for natural resource data management. This thesis describes the utilisation of an object oriented data modelling approach using UML CASE tools to design a data model for South African Boreholes, based on the Standard Descriptors for Boreholes. The data model was converted to a geodatabase schema and implemented in ArcGIS.

A crescente produção de carga orgânica e de nutrientes em bacias hidrográficas tem levado, historicamente, rios a significativas mudanças nos padrões de qualidade da água, na diversidade e riqueza biológica e nos usos nobres de suas águas. Neste trabalho, a qualidade da água na bacia do rio Doce foi avaliada através de um modelo hidrológico integrado a um SIG, denominado SGAG (Sistema Georeferenciado de Apoio ao Gerenciamento). O sistema foi capaz de analisar o efeito de lançamentos múltiplos de efluentes na qualidade da água do rio Doce no período de estiagem. O modelo foi calibrado satisfatoriamente utilizando os dados de monitoramento ao longo do curso do rio Doce. Cenários de planejamento também foram estabelecidos, simulados e avaliados. As simulações mostraram que as medidas propostas para os cenários de planejamento promovem uma significativa redução das concentrações dos poluentes em comparação com o cenário atual, principalmente no cenário de tratamento universal. O modelo hidrológico em ambiente SIG proposto mostrou ser uma ferramenta promissora e simples para investigação da qualidade da água de bacias hidrográficas sujeitas a lançamentos pontuais de efluentes. / The increase of organic and nutrient loading in watersheds have led to significant changes in water quality patterns in rivers. In this work we evaluated the water quality of the Basin of River Doce basin through an hydrologic model integrated with GIS, called SGAG (Georeferencing Management Support System). The model was calibrated using water quality monitoring data throughout River Doce extension. Moreover planning scenarios were established, simulated and evaluated. The simulations indicated that the corrective measures in the planning scenarios promoted a significant decrease of the pollutant concentrations in comparison with the current situation. The hydrological model coupled with GIS environment have shown to be a simple and a promising tool to investigating water quality in basins subject to point sources of pollution.