Extreme precipitation events that occurred between March 24 and March 26 of 2015 in the region of the Atacama Desert (26-29 degrees S) left around 30000 victims, being one of the biggest events over the past 50 years, with total a cost of reconstruction of about 1.5 billion dollars. The mudflows which increased during the flashflood inundated much of the city of Copiapo and Tierra Amarilla. This manuscript aims to model the mudflow of March 2015 in the Rio Copiapo, specifically in the towns of Copiapo and Tierra Amarilla. The modeling process is performed using the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation Model (RAMMS) that allows modeling the dynamics of the mudflow in two dimensions, only using the topographic features of the modeling domain. Calibration of the model was carried out successfully using data from inundation heights captured around the city after the 2015 event. A detailed analysis of the hydrometeorological event is carried out using satellite images obtained from Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), and pluviometric and hydrographic data available in the Copiapo River basin. The simulation of the flood is reproduced with maps of inundation heights associated with two modeling scenarios. The maximum flood heights are ultimately used for developing risk maps at both sites. According to our results, the RAMMS model is an appropriate tool for modeling mudflow and mapping flood risk to improve hydrological risk management in arid and semiarid basins of Chile.

Os eventos hidrológicos se tornaram recorrentes nos últimos anos no Brasil. Diversos elementos contribuem para o aumento da frequência destes eventos nas áreas urbanas, entre eles se destaca o uso e ocupação do solo inadequados, que tornam as cidades brasileiras cada vez mais vulneráveis, acarretando prejuízos a população, chegando a vítimas fatais em alguns casos. A gestão de risco relacionada aos desastres naturais muita das vezes se restringe ao uso do monitoramento da chuva como elemento deflagrador da emissão de um alerta de risco e deixa de considerar o sistema de drenagem implementado no município como um elemento que fomenta tais eventos. Com intuito de auxiliar na tomada de decisão dos gestores, este trabalho avaliou a estimativa de precipitação do produto Merge (Cptec/INPE) e o comparou com as estações do INMET em quatorze municípios brasileiros contidos na área de estudo proposta. Além disso, também desenvolveu a ferramenta Monte Carlo que estima valores de precipitação, em função de dados de precipitação do produto Merge em conjunto com fatores condicionantes para as áreas Alfa e Beta do estudo, finalizando com a geração de um arquivo para simulação hidráulica no software livre SWMM. As análises dos resultados obtidos foram avaliadas utilizando o Erro médio (EM) e a Raiz do erro médio quadrático (REMQ) para o período de 21 novembro a 1º de dezembro de 2017. Os resultados observados apontaram para variações entre o produto Merge e as estações do INMET que podem ter sido ocasionados pela diferença espacial e temporal da varredura do satélite em relação ao acumulado do pluviômetro. A área Beta apresentou melhores resultados do que a área Alfa, sendo este fato explicado pela proximidade com a estação Uberaba (A5568) e pela amostra de valores estimados de precipitação serem mais representativos para o evento estudado do que para a área Alfa para o evento estudado. Em relação a simulação hidráulica realizada na bacia hidrográfica do córrego das Lages, os resultados obtidos apresentaram uma correlação melhor para a precipitação estimados pela área Beta, com destaque para os nós localizados no córrego das Bicas e no córrego das Lages na região próxima a junção destes dois afluentes que atingiram a cota de transbordamento de referência do estudo. Portanto, a ferramenta computacional Monte Carlo, associada ao software SWMM mostrou-se satisfatória e possível de ser utilizada para auxiliar os gestores da tomada de decisão de envio de alertas para áreas de risco hidrológico. / Hydrological events have become recurrent in recent years in Brazil. Several elements contribute to increasing the frequency of these events in urban areas, including inadequate land use and occupation, which render Brazilian cities increasingly vulnerable, resulting in losses to the population, leading to some cases of fatalities. Risk management related to natural disasters often restrict itself to the use of atmospheric monitoring as a triggering element for the issuance of a risk alert and fails to consider the drainage system implemented in the municipality as an element that encourages such events. In order to assist managers in decision making, this work evaluated the precipitation estimation of the Merge product (Cptec / INPE) and compared it with the INMET stations in fourteen Brazilian municipalities within the proposed study area. In addition, it also developed the Monte Carlo tool that estimates precipitation values as a function of precipitation data of the Merge product together with conditioning factors for the Alpha and Beta areas of the study, ending with the generation of a file for hydraulic simulation in the software free SWMM. The analysis of the obtained results was evaluated using the Mean Error (EM) and Root Mean Square Error (REMQ) for the period from November 21 to December 1, 2017. The observed results pointed to variations between the Merge product and the seasons of the INMET that may have been caused by the different spatial and temporal of the satellite scan in relation to the accumulated rain gauge. A Beta area has a result that is an Alpha area, a fact explained by the proximity to Uberaba station (A5568) and by the sample of estimated values of the more representative attraction for the studied event than for an Alpha area for the event studied. In relation to the hydraulic simulation performed in the Lages stream water catchment area, the results obtained presented a better the correlation for the precipitation estimated by the Beta area, especially the nodes located in the Bicas stream and in the Lages stream in the region near the junction of these two tributaries that reached the reference overflow the quota of the study. Therefore, the Monte Carlo computational tool, associated to the SWMM software, was satisfactory and possible to be used to help decision-makers to send alerts to hydrological risk areas.

Submitted by Marina Alves Ferraz null (marinaaferraz@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-03-04T14:57:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Pedrini.M.AF.dissertação_final.pdf: 6365438 bytes, checksum: d72d8b494e5dd313a3dd15d4a45ba79a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Marlene Zaniboni null (zaniboni@bauru.unesp.br) on 2018-03-05T15:59:19Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 pedrini_maf_me_bauru.pdf: 6365438 bytes, checksum: d72d8b494e5dd313a3dd15d4a45ba79a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-03-05T15:59:19Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 pedrini_maf_me_bauru.pdf: 6365438 bytes, checksum: d72d8b494e5dd313a3dd15d4a45ba79a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-01 / O debate sobre o aquecimento global nas últimas décadas e também o aumento da frequência e intensidade de acontecimentos extremos causados por eventos hidro-meteorológicos e climatológicos levou a uma maior ênfase em estudos de desastres naturais. No Brasil as secas e as enxurradas são as tipologias mais recorrentes, sendo que a chuva é o evento desencadeador com maior incidência de danos. A análise cruzada de danos e seus fatores geradores relacionados a eventos hidrológicos indica que a chuva intensa é o evento mais preponderante para a ocorrência de desastres naturais relacionados à drenagem. O objetivo do trabalho foi a elaboração do mapa de risco à inundação urbana (alagamento, enchente e enxurrada) da cidade de Bauru e também a comparação entre dados obtidos de pluviômetros automáticos e dados de radar. Os dados de precipitação foram obtidos de pluviômetros automáticos instalados na cidade de Bauru. A probabilidade de ocorrência dos eventos hidrológicos foi estimada pelas equações IDF (intensidade, duração, frequência). Os resultados desta pesquisa foram espacializados e classificados em função de sua severidade verificando-se que eventos com baixo período de retorno geram danos significativos. Foi elaborado um mapa de perigo atribuindo pesos aos fatores ambientais e sociais com o auxílio de SIG (Sistema de Informação Geográfica). O estudo de caso desta pesquisa pode auxiliar os órgãos competentes na implementação de sistemas de alerta precoce e políticas de prevenção. / The current debate about global warming in recent decades and also the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events caused by hydro-meteorological and climatological events led to a greater emphasis on natural disasters studies. In Brazil, droughts and floods are the most recurrent typologies, with rain being the main event that causes the majority of the damages. Cross-analysis of damage triggering events related to rain indicates that heavy rain is the most significant event in the occurrence of natural disasters related to drainage. The objective of this research was the elaboration of an urban flooding risk map for Bauru and also the comparison between data of rain gauges and radar. Precipitation data was obtained from rain gauges installed in the city of Bauru. The probability of occurrence of hydrological events was estimated by the IDF (intensity, duration, frequency) equations. The results of this research were spatialized and classified according to its severity and they showed low return events cause significant damage. A map of hazard areas was developed with the help of GIS (Geographic Information System) software. The case study of this research can help the local governments with the implementation of early warning systems and prevention policies.

Le changement climatique devrait induire une augmentation des précipitations pendant l'hiver et le printemps dans les régions tempérées et la côte nord de l'Europe. Dans les écosystèmes fluviaux, les précipitations affectent directement le débit des eaux courantes et les rivières subiront des crues plus sévères. En outre, la température de l'air et de l'eau augmenteront à travers le monde. Ces nouvelles conditions environnementales vont avoir des conséquences sur la phénologie des espèces et les interactions prédateurs/proies. Les jeunes truites fario (Salmo trutta L.) commencent leur alimentation exogène en mars/avril. Cette étape critique de leur cycle de vie induit d’importants changements aussi bien physiologiques que comportementaux. Pour permettre un bon développement des individus et un taux de survie élevé, les proies doivent être disponibles et abondantes, en particulier à ce moment de l’ontogénèse où les juvéniles sont vulnérables au manque de nourriture et à la prédation. Des expériences en milieux contrôlés ont été menées pour quantifier la sensibilité à différentes modalités de vitesses de courant de trois espèces d’invertébrés couramment consommées par les salmonidés et pour évaluer l’effet de la température sur le métabolisme d’alevins en situation de jeûne. Des expériences en milieu semi-naturel ont été mises en place pour mieux comprendre les effets d’une crue sur la communauté d’invertébrés et sur la survie, le comportement et la croissance des alevins en première alimentation. Il apparaît que la crue impacte différemment les truites en fonction du moment de la saison auquel elles commencent à s’alimenter (au début ou à la fin du printemps) et de la productivité du système. / Global Climate Change will increase precipitations in the temperate and Northern coast of Europe during winter and spring. In riverine ecosystems, precipitation affects directly the discharge of running waters and, thus, it is predicted that streams will face more severe floods. Additionally, air and water temperature will increase all over the world. These new environmental conditions can alter the phenology of species and predator/prey interactions. Newborns of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) start their exogenous feeding in March/April. This stage is a critical step as individuals undergo huge physiological and behavioral changes. To allow a good development and a high survival rate, prey has to be abundant, particularly during early ontogenesis when they are most vulnerable to food scarcity and predation. In this thesis, experiments in controlled-environment were conducted to estimate the effect of water velocity on the preferred prey taxa for salmonids and to understand the effect of temperature on the metabolism of alevins facing starvation. Experiments in semi-natural conditions were set up to better understand the effects of floods on invertebrate communities and on survival, behavior and growth of first-feeding alevins. Our data support that floods affect trout differently depending on when they start feeding (early or late spring) and the availability of prey in their environment.