The upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) is one of the primary sources of water for the western United States, and increasing temperatures likely will elevate the risk of reduced water supply in the basin. Although variability in water-year precipitation explains more of the variability in water-year UCRB streamflow than water-year UCRB temperature, since the late 1980s, increases in temperature in the UCRB have caused a substantial reduction in UCRB runoff efficiency (the ratio of streamflow to precipitation). These reductions in flow because of increasing temperatures are the largest documented temperature-related reductions since record keeping began. Increases in UCRB temperature over the past three decades have resulted in a mean UCRB water-year streamflow departure of 21306 million m(3) (or -7% of mean water-year streamflow). Additionally, warm-season (April through September) temperature has had a larger effect on variability in water-year UCRB streamflow than the cool-season (October through March) temperature. The greater contribution of warm-season temperature, relative to cool-season temperature, to variability of UCRB flow suggests that evaporation or snowmelt, rather than changes from snow to rain during the cool season, has driven recent reductions in UCRB flow. It is expected that as warming continues, the negative effects of temperature on water-year UCRB streamflow will become more evident and problematic.

Pakistan, as an agriculture based economy, is vulnerable to various hydrometeorological hazards ranging from tropical cyclones, thunderstorms, tornadoes, drought, rain, hail, snow, lightning, fog, wind, temperature extremes, air pollution, and climatic change. However, three of the most pressing challenges in terms of water resource availability, that are different in nature, but are inter-linked to each other are discussed over here. We begin with the Karakoram Anomaly that is considered as one of the most mysterious and most speculated phenomena on Planet Earth. Though, it is confined to the glaciers in the eastern Hindukush, western Karakoram and northwestern Himalayan mountain ranges of Northern Pakistan that are not responding to global warming in the same manner as their counterparts elsewhere, because, their retreat rates are less than the global average, and some are either stable or growing. However, the Karakoram Anomaly has baffled scientific society for more than a decade since its earliest discovery in the year 2005. The reasons of the Karakoram anomaly were mainly associated to physiography of the area and role of climate was considered marginal till now, as climate is influencing glaciers differently all over the globe. Here, for the first time, we present a hydro-meteorological perspective based on five decades of synoptic weather observations collected by the meteorological network of Pakistan. Analysis of this unique data set indicates that increased regional scale humidity, cloud cover, and precipitation, along with decreased net radiation, near-surface wind speed, potential evapotranspiration and river flow, especially during the summer season, represent a substantial change in the energy, mass and momentum fluxes that are facilitating the establishment of the Karakoram Anomaly. In turn, it is influencing the availability of glacier melt in River Indus in summer season. Secondly, we developed a hydrometeorological data sets for Pakistan as they are extremely important for water related impact studies and future climate change scenarios. Presently, major sources of gridded temperature and precipitation data generation are in-situ observations, satellite retrieved information and outputs from numerical models. However, each has its own merits and demerits. Among them gridded observed data sets are considered superior if the gauge density is better. Unfortunately, precipitation gauge network of Pakistan is poorly presented in prior gridded products. Therefore, a daily in-situ observation based, 0.05º×0.05º gridded temperature and precipitation data set for Pakistan, for the period of 1960-2013 is developed. It is named as PAK-HYM-1.0, that is an abbreviation of Pakistan and Hydrometeorology, and 1.0 indicates that it is the first version. This data set is developed by utilizing data from 67 meteorological stations of Pakistan. This number of observation sites is 2 to 4 times higher than that used in prior similar products, and this product can be adopted as an operational information product that can be updated on daily basis. Finally, we focused on meteorological and hydrological droughts in Pakistan. We have reconstructed history of drought in Pakistan using in situ observations based high resolution gridded data through Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) methodology on different time scales. Furthermore, we have explained the transition of meteorological drought to hydrological drought using river inflows data of large rivers of Pakistan, and explained the sensitivity of different rivers to rainfall and temperature of different seasons. On the basis of this analysis, we have proposed a solution of construction of water reservoirs to tap water resources from northern mountains as inflows from these mountains has potential to perform as a buffer against droughts in low-lying areas of Pakistan. In addition to that, we have demonstrated the potential of Palmer Drought Sensitivity Index (PDSI) as an operational tool for drought monitoring in Pakistan.

No description available.

published_or_final_version / Civil Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

Observational and modelling studies show that the warming of the Arctic is leading to shrub expansion. This shift in vegetation cover is expected to significantly alter the distribution of snow across the landscape and the interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere. Shrubs capture wind-blown snow, increasing snow depth and decreasing winter water loss through sublimation, and bend beneath the weight of snow, affecting albedo. Snow is highly insulative and affects the soil hydrological and thermal properties. Therefore, as the snow-vegetation-soil interactions is expected to be at the core of feedback loops leading to further shrub expansion, there is a need for models to be able to simulate these processes accurately. Initially using the community land surface model JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) this study investigates the effects of shrub-tundra on snow and runoff. Alternative formulations of soil processes are proposed, which are better adapted to the representation of subgrid heterogeneity in cold regions than the current model formulation, and evaluated over the Abisko and Torne-Kalix river basins. In addition, a high resolution shrub bending model, which calculates the exposed winter shrub fraction, is developed and parameterised for use alongside the snow cover parameterisation in JULES in order to provide a better representation of shrub-specific processes. This revised JULES more than doubles the efficiency coefficient and halfs the negative bias between modelled and observed runoff in the shrub-tundra Abisko basin. However, the current structure of the model is found to be inadequate for use in investigating the effect of shrub-tundra expansion because it calculates a single energy balance for the snow-free and the snow-covered areas. To address this issue, a distributed three-source (snow-shrub-ground) model (D3SM) is developed. D3SM is evaluated against snow and energy ux measurements from a shrub-tundra basin in the Yukon, Canada, and is found to reproduce snowmelt energetics well. The effects of shrub expansion on the energy balance of the basin during snowmelt are then investigated by increasing the vegetation fraction and canopy height of the current shrub distribution, which is found to be positively correlated with topography. D3SM shows that the most significant effects of shrub expansion in the basin are to reduce the spatial variability of snow depth and to increase the sensible heat flux from the surface to the atmosphere.

Abstract not available

Land Surface Parameterization (LSP) schemes have evolved from simple tipping-bucket models to fully interactive models, including parameterizations which account for exchanges of momentum, energy, mass, and biogeochemistry. As the demand for greater realism has increased, so has the complexity of LSPs which now includes some parameters that may not be universally relevant to all regions of the globe. The performance of LSP schemes depends on the magnitude of structural, data-related (input and output), and parameter uncertainties in the model. Parameter estimation uncertainty can be reduced by calibrating LSPs against measurements available at field sites. Given the multiple outputs of the models, multi-objective optimization approaches are performed. Some of the parameter values used in LSPs have originally obtained from laboratory studies which analyzed plant behavior under a range of conditions in enclosed chambers. The research described in this dissertation takes advantage of currently available data from several eddy covariance flux towers located mainly in the Brazilian Amazon basin to estimate parameter values of a widely-used LSP scheme, version 3 of the Simple Biosphere model (SiB3). Background climatological data was used to assess the representativeness of the data collection period that might have affected model calibration. Variance-based sensitivity analysis was then used to investigate potential structural deficiencies in SiB3 and to reduce the dimensionality of the subsequent optimization by identifying those model parameters that merit calibration. Finally, some structural and conceptual aspects of SiB3 were tested inside Biosphere 2 Tropical Rain Forest biome (B2-TRF) under meteorological conditions that resemble those predicted in future climate scenarios for the Amazon basin.

Thesis (M.S.)--Florida State University, 2004. / Advisor: Dr. T.N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, College of Arts and Sciences, Dept. of Meteorology. Title and description from dissertation home page (viewed June 18, 2004). Title and description from dissertation home page (viewed <date>). Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis (Ph.D. Earth Sciences)--University of Waikato, 2005. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 232-246) Also available via the World Wide Web.

No description available.