This master´s thesis examines the development of real estate financing in relation to the credit crunch. Accordnig to main causes of fluctuations in history, comparing interest rates, mortgage loans, property development and investment in time, it models the evolution of optimal interest rates of real estate market. The loans’ optimal parameters with combination of types of bank financing in the real estate market with regard to its sustainable development as a separate and independent global market with strong inclusion among the other market sectors, are formed there. In this dissertation the analysis of financing methods will be used, comparative method of commercial banks‘ interest rate and analysis of commercial interest rates‘ structure. The result of the work we expect to be optimistic, realistic and pessimistic scenarios of futher development of real estate finance market and the model of the optimal interest rates‘ structure.

In the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008, regulatory authorities have implemented stricter policies to ensure more prudent risk management practices among banks. Despite the growing importance of demand deposits for banks, no policies for how to adequately account for the inherent interest rate risk have been introduced. Demand deposits are associated with two sources of uncertainties which make it difficult to assess its risks using standardized models: they lack a predetermined maturity and the deposit rate may be changed at the bank’s discretion. In light of this gap, this study aims to empirically investigate the modeling of the valuation and interest rate risk of demand deposits with two different frameworks: the Economic Value Model Framework (EVM) and the Replicating Portfolio Model Framework (RPM). To analyze the two frameworks, models for the demand deposit rate and demand deposit volume are developed using a comprehensive and novel dataset provided by one the biggest commercial banks in Sweden. The findings indicate that including macroeconomic variables in the modeling of the deposit rate and deposit volume do not improve the modeling accuracy. This is in contrast to what has been suggested by previous studies. The findings also indicate that there are modeling differences between demand deposit categories. Finally, the EVM is found to produce interest rate risks with less variability compared to the RPM. / Till foljd av nanskrisen 2008 har regulatoriska myndigheter infort mer strikta regelverk for att framja en sund nansiell riskhantering hos banker. Trots avistakontons okade betydelse for banker har inga regulatoriska riktlinjer introducerats for hur den associerade ranterisken ska hanteras ur ett riskperspektiv. Avistakonton ar forknippade med tva faktorer som forsvarar utvarderingen av dess ranterisk med traditionella ranteriskmetoder: de saknar en forutbestamd loptid och avistarantan kan andras nar sa banken onskar. Med hansyn till detta gap fokuserar denna studie pa att empiriskt analysera tva modelleringsramverk for att vardera och mata ranterisken hos avistakonton: Economic Value Model Framework (EVM) and Replicating Portfolio Model Framework (RPM). Analysen genomfors genom att initialt ta fram modeller for hur avistarantan och volymen pa avistakonton utvecklas over tid med hjalp av ett modernt och unikt dataset fran en av Sveriges storsta kommersiella banker. Studiens resultat indikerar att modellerna for avistarantan och avistavolymen inte forbattras nar makroekonomiska variabler ar inkluderade. Detta ar i kontrast till vad tidigare studier har oreslagit. Vidare visar studiens resultat att det modellerna skiljer sig nar avistakontona ar egmenterade pa en mer granular niva. Slutligen pavisar resultatet att EVM producerar ranteriskestimat som ar mindre kansliga for antanganden an RPM.

Finding the optimal capital structure has been a relevant subject for many decades. Therehas for a long time been a discrepancy between observed leverage ratio and those proposedby theory, with many different theories suggested and developed throughout time. One ofthose theories is the Contingent Claims Analysis (CCA). Based initially on Black & Scholes’option-pricing theory and formulas, and pioneered by Merton, the CCA-methodology hasthroughout the years been developed further and moved from pricing liabilities todetermining capital structures. The research and development on CCA-models have for thepast years mostly been on a theoretical level and less about its practical applicability. Thosefew applications that have been made were based on the U.S. market and companies.Ju and Ou-Yang developed one of the most recent CCA-methodologies in 2006,abbreviated as the JOY-model in this study. What distinguishes this model is its ability toshow the non-monotone relation of debt maturity and debt face amount through the morecomplex tradeoffs between tax benefits, bankruptcy costs and transactions cost. With a fewchanges made to it, and with almost all data from the Swedish market and companies, theJOY-model yields higher leverage ratios than what the 5 analyzed companies have today.The optimal leverage ratio, defined as debt value/firm value ranges from 10 – 40% and theoptimal debt maturity period is at 4 – 6 years. Out of all the model parameters, the long-runmean of the stochastic risk-free interest rate has the biggest impact on the final results. TheJOY-model and CCA in general are complex and resource intense models that need certainimprovements. Nonetheless, its overall potential is still promising.

In this paper we propose a time-varying parameter VAR model for the housing market in the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan and the Euro Area. For these four economies, we answer the following research questions: (i) How can we evaluate the stance of monetary policy when the policy rate hits the zero lower bound? (ii) Can developments in the housing market still be explained by policy measures adopted by central banks? (iii) Did central banks succeed in mitigating the detrimental impact of the financial crisis on selected housing variables? We analyze the relationship between unconventional monetary policy and the housing markets by using the shadow interest rate estimated by Krippner (2013b). Our findings suggest that the monetary policy transmission mechanism to the housing market has not changed with the implementation of quantitative easing or forward guidance, and central banks can affect the composition of an investors portfolio through investment in housing. A counterfactual exercise provides some evidence that unconventional monetary policy has been particularly successful in dampening the consequences of the financial crisis on housing markets in the United States, while the effects are more muted in the other countries considered in this study. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Research report, presented to the SBL, Unisa, Midrand / In the midst of a global recession, this study explored whether the act of obtaining motor vehicle finance has become more onerous since the implementation of the National Credit Act, 2005, (NCA), and to determine which variables are contributing to the phenomenon of declining motor finance figures. A quantitative research methodology was applied whereby a portion of the analysis was based on historical motor finance application data attained from a medium sized motor finance institution. Another portion considered survey data obtained from 152 South African consumers and 42 Credit Analysts collected by way of self administered questionnaires. Various statistical tools, including Independent Sample t-Tests and Pearson product-moment correlation tests were applied to the data. The results of the study indicate that the act of obtaining motor finance has indeed become more complex since the inception of the NCA. Of the variables tested, motor vehicle retail prices and general living costs were identified as the main impediments limiting the amount of motor finance granted in the South African motor finance sector.

Syftet med uppsatsen är att beskriva och analysera hur slopandet av revisionsplikten har påverkat låneräntan för mikroföretag. För fem år sedan avskaffades revisionsplikten för småföretag, så kallade mikroföretag, vilket gör det intressant att studera vilka effekter denna lagändring har medfört. Syftet med lagändringen var att det skulle leda till en minskad administrativ börda och öka konkurrenskraften. Tidigare forskning har dock kommit fram till att denna lagändring medfört ökade kostnader så som ökade lånekostnader. En kvantitativ studie med en deduktiv ansats har genomförts på aktiva svenska mikroföretag. Datainsamlingen har skett från databasen Retriever Business och enbart fokuserat på finansiell data. Genom linjär multipel regression har företag studerats under perioden 2013-2012 samt 2010-2009. Studien har ett eklektiskt angreppssätt. Hypotesen har framställts utifrån teorier som agentteorin, intressentteorin, institutionell teori samt tidigare forskning. Det finns ett flertal bakomliggande faktorer som påverkar låneräntan. Studien har kunnat konstatera både signifikanta och icke-signifikanta samband. Det generella svaret på studiens frågeställning är att det finns andra faktorer än revisorn som påverkar låneräntan. Den individuella effekten av revisorn på låneräntan kunde inte konstateras. / The purpose of the thesis is to describe and analyze how the abolition of the statutory audit has affected the interest rate for micro firms. It has passed five years since the abolition of the statutory audit for small firms, also called micro firms, which makes it interesting to study the effects of this legislative act. The purpose of this legislation was to decrease the administrative burden and increase the competitiveness. Although, prior research has concluded that this legislative change has led to increased costs such as increased costs of borrowing. A quantitative study with a deductive approach has been made on operating Swedish micro firms. The dataset has been retrieved from the database Retriever Business and has only been focusing on financial data. Companies have been studied through a multiple linear regression for the time period 2013-2012 and 2010-2009. The thesis has an eclectic approach. The hypothesis has been developed through theories such as agency theory, stakeholder theory and institutional theory together with prior research. There are several underlying factors that affect the interest rate. The study has established both significant and non-significant relationships. The general answer to the study’s problem is that there are other factors than the auditor that affects the interest rate. The individual effect of the auditor on the interest rate could not be established.

A large literature has related the failure of interest rate parity in the foreign exchange market to the existence of a time-varying risk premium. Nevertheless, most modern open economy DSGE models imply a (near) perfect interest rate parity condition. This paper presents a stylized two-country incomplete-markets model in which countries have strong precautionary motives because they face international liquidity constraints, the presence of which successfully generates a time-varying risk premium: the country that has accumulated debt after experiencing relative worse times has stronger precautionary motives and its asset carries a risk premium. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University / ENGLISH ABSTRACT : In this thesis, we first review the traditional pre-credit crunch approach that considers a single curve to consistently price all instruments. We review the theoretical pricing framework and introduce pricing formulas for plain vanilla interest rate derivatives. We then review the curve construction methodologies (bootstrapping and global methods) to build an interest rate curve using the instruments described previously as inputs. Second, we extend this work in the modern post-credit framework. Third, we review the calibration of the SABR model. Finally we present applications that use interest rate curves and SABR model: stripping implied volatilities, transforming the market observed smile (given quotes for standard tenors) to non-standard tenors (or inversely) and calibrating the market volatility smile coherently with the new market evidences. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Geen Afrikaanse opsomming geskikbaar nie

本研究中，考慮連續時間下，附最低保證之長期最適投資策略；在利率模型中，為較能符合現實狀況，我們採用CIR模型；另外，在此策略中，我們將投資人之風險偏好加入模型中研究，最適化投資人到期時財富之效用函數，並用Cox & Huang之市場中立評價方法來解決數學模型問題。此篇研究顯示，最適之投資策略可以等價於某些共同基金之投資組合，這些共同基金能利用金融市場上之主要資產(market primary assets)來複製。 / In this study, we consider a portfolio selection problem for long-term investors. Dynamic investment strategy with the continuous-time framework incorporating the minimum guarantees are constructed. Maximizing expected utility of the terminal wealth is employed by investors to trade off profits in good future state against losses incurred in worse states. Follow the previous works of Deelstra et al. (2003), we concentrate on the simplest case of a one-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model in formulating the stochastic variation from the interest rate risks. Under the market completeness assumption, the fund growth is modelled under the market neutral valuation and the optimal rules are mapped into the static variational problem of Cox and Huang (1989). In this study, we show that the optimal portfolio is equivalent to a certain mutual fund that can be replicated by the market primary assets

<p>The purpose of this study is to examine what affects the changes in credit spreads. A</p><p>regression model was performed where the explanatory variables were; volatility,</p><p>SP&500 index, interest-rate level the slope of yield curve and the dependent</p><p>variable was credit spread for each of CSUSDA, CSUSDBBB, and CSUSDB. We</p><p>found a positive correlation between these independent variables (Volatility, S&P</p><p>500index) and a negative correlation between interest-rate level and credit spreads.</p><p>These results were consistent with our hypothesis. However, the link between the</p><p>slope of yield curve and credit spreads was positive and that was inconsistent with</p><p>our hypothesis and some previous studies. The conclusion of this paper was a</p><p>change in credit spread is related to the variables that we used in our model. And</p><p>these variables explained about 50 per cent of this change.</p>