This study discusses the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the different channels. The analysis is conducted using generalized impulse response functions derived from a factor-augmented vector error correction (FAVECM) model. The FAVECM methodology as developed by Lee (2009) extends the factoraugmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model to analyze long-run and shortrun dynamics of non-stationary variables. This recenly derived FAVECM model combines the advantages of factor model and the VECM model. The estimations are conducted using 174 macroeconomic time series in monthly frequency for the period January 2000 to September 2009. Results indicate that interbank call loan rate, deposit rate and prime lending rate are conintegrated, which provides sufficient evidence of the existence of the credit channel in monetary transmission system. Other GIRF results are generally consistent of the expected monetary policy effectiveness.

This study revists Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and discusses the monetary policy transmission mechanism in exchange rate channels. The analysis is conducted using generalized impulse response functions derived from a Factor- Augmented Vector Error Correction (FAVECM) model. The FAVECM methodology as developed by Lee (2009) extends the Factor- Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model to analyze long-run and shortrun dynamics of non-stationary variables. This recently derived FAVECM model combines the advantages of factor model and the VECM model. The estimations are conducted using 157 macroeconomic time series in monthly frequency for the period January 2000 to September 2009. Results indicate that PPP exists and expansionary devaluation effect in Taiwan. Other GIRF results are generally consistent of the expected exchange rate effectiveness.

Abstract Japan is the second largest economic power in the world. It has a great deal of FDI outflows but few FDI inflows. Therefore, Japan is in the serious situation of ¡§FDI balance of payments deficit.¡¨ In terms of inward FDI stocks as a percentage of GDP and gross fixed capital formation, Japan is the lowest place of G-7. The purpose of this research is focusing on discussing the shortage of FDI inflows and causing factors which lower the desires of investments in Japan by using the simplest way which is based on the actual situation and the limit of the information in Japan. This paper takes the quarterly data of Japan from 1978 to 2005 and four variables (wage index, real exchange rate, trade and FDI inflows). In this research, the unit root test is used to check if the data have the stationarity or not, and then it uses vector autoregression model (VAR) to proceed impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition. According to the result of these two approaches, we can figure out the influences of four variables for each other, and then find out the causing factors which lead Japan to have less FDI inflows. The calculation shows that the reason which leads Japanese wages to increase gradually results not only from real exchange rate, trade and FDI inflows, but also from Japanese labor system (lifetime employment system and payment according to working seniority) and the labor quantities. The causality runs from real exchange rate to trade is greater than vice versa. Trade has a positive impact from the real exchange rate which means that the depreciation can accelerate trade. However, the main factor of hindering FDI inflows is Japanese high wages rather than real exchange rate or trade. Therefore, in order to get rid of the depression which was caused by the bubble economy in 1990s, Japanese government not only opens up the restrictions in policy but also takes the control of the prime costs into the most important consideration.

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In this master thesis multiple time series of shipping industry and financial data are analysed in order to create a forecasting model to forecast freight rate indices. The data of main interest which are predicted are the two freight rate indices, BDI and BDTI, from the Baltic Exchange. The project investigates the possibilities for aggregated Vector Autoregression(VAR) models to outperform simple univariate models, in this case, an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) with seasonal components. The other part of this thesis is to model market shocks in the freight rate indices, given impulses in the other underlying VAR-model time series using the impulse response function. The main results are that the VAR-model forecast outperforms the ARIMA-model in forecasting the tanker freight rate index (BDTI), while the the bulk freight rate index(BDI) is better predicted by the simple ARIMA when calculating the forecast mean square error. / I denna avhandling analyseras multipla tidsserier över rederinärings- och finansiell data i syfte att skapa en prognosticerande modell för att prognosticera fraktratsindex. Dataserierna som i huvudsak prognosticeras är fraktratsindexen BDI och BDTI från Baltic exchange. I projektet undersöks om en aggregerad Vektor Autoregressiv(VAR) modell överträffar en univariat modell, i detta fall en Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) med säsongsvariabel. I andra delen av denna avhandling modelleras chocker i fraktratsindexen givet impulser i de andra underliggande tidsserierna i de aggregerade VAR-modellerna. Huvudresultaten är att VAR-modellens prognos överträffar ARIMA-modellen för tankerraterna (BDTI), medan bulkraterna(BDI) bättre prognosticeras av ARIMA-modellen, i avseende på prognosernas beräknade mean square error.

The 2007-2008 US subprime mortgage crisis evolved into a financial crisis that negatively affected many economies in the world and therefore it was widely referred to as the global financial crisis. Since the beginning of this financial crisis of 2008-2009, South Africa experienced a significant increase in its household debt to income ratio. In the main, the aim of this dissertation is to investigate the prominent factors contributing to the rise in the level of household debt in South Africa. Also, we study the response of household debt to various shocks originating from the aforementioned crisis. Additionally, in the context of our timeline (1985 Q1-2012 Q1) we will extrapolate possible graphical trends in the rise and fall of household indebtedness in South Africa associated with various crises. Working from past research papers and a theoretical framework developed by Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, seven macroeconomic variables will be considered to examine the rise of household borrowing to income namely; the real house price index, consumer price index. real income, real prime rate, real household consumption expenditure, real gross domestic product and real household savings. Both a long-run cointegration analysis and a short-run error correction model will be used to evaluate the relationship between household debt and the chosen variables by estimating a Vector Error Correction Model. Furthermore, the Variance Decomposition and the Generalized Impulse Response Function will be utilized to assess the impact of household debt to various shocks emanating from the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The different models and tests conducted in this research will be executed using the statistical software package EVIEWS 7. Based on the results, household debt was seen to have been fairly affected by the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The cointegration analysis maintains that in the long run, household borrowing is positively and significantly determined by consumer price index and real household consumption. In addition, it confirms that household borrowing is negatively affected by real household income and real GOP. The rest of the variables were found insignificant. Nevertheless, the short run error correction model reveals that about 3.6% of the disequilibrium will be corrected each quarter for the equilibrium state to be restored. Also, the Variance Decomposition results confirmed that the South African household debt is mostly affected by shocks from real house price index, real household income, real household consumption and real household savings, respectively. Furthermore, the Generalized Impulse Response Function results established the significant positive response of household debt to a shock from real house price index and real household consumption. The response of debt to shocks from consumer price index, real household savings and real income is negative and this outcome is confirmed by the theory. However, the response of debt shows fluctuating behaviours to shocks from LRIN, LRPR and LRGDP over the estimated period. In conclusion, our econometric investigation highlighted the main causes of the high levels of household debt in South Africa both in the short and long run. The Generalized Impulse Response Functions confirm that shocks like the occurrence of the 2007-2008 financial crisis will have a significant impact on real house price index, consumer price index, real household consumption and real household savings. The Engle granger results show that there exist no significant relationship between household debt and unemployment in South Africa over the period 1980 to 2010. However, we propose that this result may have been significant if quarterly unemployment data was available and included in the main data set. Finally, based on the stability, validity and reliability of our model, we recommend its use to facilitate policy analysis and decision making regarding household debt levels in South Africa. / Thesis (M.Com.( Economics) North-West University, Mafikeng Campus, 2012

Bakgrund och Problem: Aktiemarknaden påverkas både av inhemska och utländska faktorer. Därför är det av intresse att se vilka makroekonomiska variabler som påverkar den svenska aktiemarknaden. Anledningen till att Sverige har valts som den geografiska punkten är att det är av intresse att se hur ett litet land som Sverige, som har en öppen ekonomi påverkas av de utvalda makroekonomiska variablerna. Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att med hjälp av information samt analys, studera hur de olika makroekonomiska variablerna påverkar den inhemska aktiemarknaden. Olika faktorer som påverkar aktiemarknaden kommer att lyftas fram för att i sin tur även se till de olika branscherna. Metod: Då data enbart består av hämtning av tidigare information fokuseras det enbart på sekundärdata i form av historiska siffror samt historiska undersökningar. De statistiska tester som tillämpas är Granger Causality test, Johansens Cointegration test, Impulse Response Function test, ADF test, KPSS test, Mulitpel regression. Slutsats: Med de resultat som presenterades i denna studie, skulle vi nog inte kunna säga att vi har ett svar över vilka aktier en investerare ska införskaffa. Dock skulle vi kunna poängtera att den potentiella investeraren bör ha dessa variabler i beaktning vid beslut. Genom att studera dessa variabler kan man få en känsla om vilket håll variablerna kommer att röra sig och på så sätt säga att de kan påverka aktieindexen. Att bara kolla på de makroekonomiska variabler som denna studie belyser räcker inte för att förstå hur aktieindex kommer att se ut i framtiden, men det är en bit på vägen till att förstå aktiemarknadens rörelse.

This study investigates the long-term and short-term dynamic relationships among the variables of stock returns and institutional investors' buy-sell difference in Taiwan's stock market for the sample periods from Jan., 2000 through May, 2009. Some econometrical methodologies are used in this study, such as unit test, vector autoregressive model, cointegration test, vector error correction model, impulse response function. The major empirical results are shown as follows: 1. Cointegration test For the sample periods, one long-term equilibrium relationship is found from the Johansen's cointegration test, significantly with 5% confidence level between stock year returns and the buy-sell difference for the foreign investment institutions, the domestic investment institutions, and the dealers. The long-term equilibrium relationship is Ry=1.65*QFII+4.28*FUND+35.22*DLR-1142.6. 2. VECM estimation (1)With the vector error correction model (VECM) being applied to the sample periods, the findings indicate that the changes of stock returns are not influenced among the short-term dynamic relationships by the changes of institutional investors' buy-sell difference, but only affected by one-period-lag of itself. (2) Among the short-term dynamic relationships, the changes of foreign investment institutions' buy-sell difference are affected by one-period-lag of institutional investors that positively affected by one-period-lag of the dealers, and inversely affected by one-period-lag of itself and one-period-lag of the domestic investment institutions. However, it is positively affected by one-period-lag of long-term equilibrium, which indicates foreign investment institutions follow positive feedback trading strategies. (3)The changes of the domestic investment institutions' buy-sell difference are only affected by one-period-lag of itself among the short-term dynamic relationships. (4)The changes of the dealers' buy-sell difference are positively affected among the short-term dynamic relationships by one-period-lag of the foreign investment institutions. As for the long-term relationships, it is affected by one-period-lag of long-term equilibrium, which also indicates the dealers follow positive feedback trading strategies. (5)The foreign investment institutions and the dealers have the mutual feedback relationship.

The aim of this work is understand how the Exchange rate volatility affects the cearensesâs exports. Many researchers have appointed that an increase in the exchange rate volatility generate risk factors on trade. Therefore, understand the relationship between volatility and trade is fundamental to forecast better the behavior of trade under instabilities of the exchange markets, as the recent international crisis. The period of analysis is from 2002 to 2011 and the data has monthly frequency. Two methodologies are used to investigate this relationship: short run, through impulse response function, obtained from a VEC; long run, through the Johansen cointegration test. The results showed that the exchange volatility reduces the exports of CearÃ. / O objetivo deste trabalho à entender como a volatilidade da taxa de cÃmbio afeta as exportaÃÃes cearenses. Diversos autores tÃm apontado que uma volatilidade da taxa de cÃmbio mais elevada pode estar associada a fatores de risco de exportaÃÃo e importaÃÃo. Dessa forma, entender o relacionamento entre esses componentes à fundamental para aumentar o poder de previsibilidade, especialmente, em perÃodos de instabilidade econÃmica, em que a volatilidade da taxa de cÃmbio tende a ser maior. Nesse trabalho, utilizou-se de dados com frequÃncia mensal entre 2002 a 2012. Duas anÃlises foram feitas: uma de curto prazo, atravÃs da abordagem de funÃÃes impulso resposta obtidas a partir de um VEC e outra de longo prazo atravÃs do teste de cointegraÃÃo de Johansen (1991). Dos resultados encontrados, verificou-se que a volatilidade da taxa de cÃmbio tem efeito sobre as exportaÃÃes cearenses tanto no curto quanto no longo prazo. Ambos, longo e curto prazo, a volatilidade da taxa de cambio reduz o quantum exportado, indicando que tal volatilidade pode ser interpretada como risco associado as exportaÃÃes.

This research examines the impact of external shocks on Nigeria’s output performance for the period 1981 – 2015. It aims to bring to the fore the importance of considering external shocks during policy design and implementation. The multivariate VAR and VECM frameworks were used to evaluate the impact of the shock variables on Nigeria’s output performance and to achieve the stated objectives. Findings show that the external shock and domestic policy variables have short-run effects on Nigeria’s output performance. Also, all the measures of external shocks and domestic policies display some viable information in explaining the variabilities in Nigeria’s output performance over the horizon. The comparison between the results of the VECM and the unrestricted VAR shows that the unrestricted VAR model outperformed the VECM. The overall result of the study confirms the view about the vulnerability of the Nigerian economy to external shocks. These shocks explain more than half of the variance in real output performance and have varying effects on output performance in Nigeria. The dynamic response of output performance to each of the defined shock variables show that output performance responds rapidly to the shock variables, while its response to the domestic economic variables is seemingly moderate. Finally, the variance decomposition show that international crude oil price and terms of trade have the largest share in accounting for the variability in output performance, followed closely by the shares of capital inflows and monetary policy.