The three essays of this dissertation inform tax policy design. It is a compilation of empirical and experimental research work. The first and the second essays explore the performance of a recent tax policy reform at the sub-national level in India in terms of revenue efficiency as well as economic efficiency. India is among the only three countries in the world to have adopted a sub-national VAT. Therefore, empirically examining its performance not only improves the understanding of this important tax policy reform but also informs tax policy decision-making at the sub-national level in other developing countries. India transitioned to the state-level VAT between the years 2003 and 2008. Among other things, it was expected to achieve revenue growth and decrease tax cascading on commodities by improving economic efficiency of the indirect tax system. In the first essay, I model the impact of the VAT on revenue by adding revenue dependent administrative and compliance costs associated with taxation to an existing model developed by Keen and Lockwood (2010). The theoretical results show that replacing one type of indirect tax with another improves long-run revenue efficiency only if there is a net decrease in the administrative, compliance and distortionary costs of taxation at the margin. I then compile a unique state-level dataset for the years 1990 to 2010 to determine changes in the long-run revenue efficiency from the use of the VAT. This essay contributes to the literature by extending an existing revenue efficiency model and testing it in the unique situation of India’s sub-national VAT. The results reveal a significant improvement in the long-run revenue efficiency of the sales tax instrument used by state governments. The model implies this improvement is driven by a net fall in the marginal taxation costs from the use of the state-level VAT. This finding has important implications on the role of a sub-national VAT in the future as an effective tax instrument in the developing countries. The second essay appeals to the general theory of tax incidence which suggests that a VAT will have less impact on prices than a traditional turnover tax because the VAT does not “get stuck” in the production process as a turnover tax does. The impact should be larger for goods that have more components to the production process as the tax then “touches” more of the final product. In this essay I measure the change in the level of tax cascading with VAT by using multiple waves of the state- and household-level expenditure surveys. Specifically I test the impact of the VAT on the real consumption of households on a variety of consumption goods. I find the biggest significant decrease in the tax cascading burden of the long-term durable goods which essentially involve the maximum production components. This result is found in the 18 more developed states of India which are the focus of the empirical analysis due to data constraints. The third essay is an experimental research which looks at the influence of institutions on the economic burden of an excise tax. The traditional long-run tax incidence theory establishes that the economic incidence of an excise tax is independent of the assignment of the liability to pay tax. However, the theory is silent on the possible effects of the market institutions on tax incidence. Since all markets need an institution to function and every market institution has its own unique price and quantity determination property, it is important to understand its bearings on the incidence of taxes. Existing experimental research has tested economic incidence under many different market institutions but no previous research systematically analyzes and compares the incidence of a unit tax under two important market institutions we deal with in everyday life. One of these institutions is posted offer which dominates the consumer goods markets in developed countries and the other is double auction which is frequently observed in developing countries. I report a significant impact of these market institutions on tax incidence. In particular, I find that consumers bear a much higher burden of a unit tax in the posted offer markets as compared to the double auction markets and their burden further increases when the liability to pay the tax is on the seller.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:44:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T13:57:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 07297.pdf: 2897384 bytes, checksum: ade16901adf7663b2eb89bed60b5b413 (MD5) / Dissertacao (Mestrado Profissionalizante em Lasers em Odontologia) / IPEN/D-MPLO / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares, IPEN/CNEN-SP; Faculdade de Odontologia, Universidade de Sao Paulo

The current energy situation is taking a turn towards renewable energies, due to the new pacts to curb global warming. These agreements, together with governmental aid, are facilitating an escalation in the production and improvement of new energy systems and the price decrease due to a larger-scale production. Within these energy alternatives, solar energy is found, specifically the subject to be treated in this project is photovoltaic energy, due to its exponential growth in the last 10 years, new tools are being developed for its monitoring and modelling. Therefore, the main objective of this thesis is to develop a method  for installation testing of a PV-system. The method should give the installed nominal power of the system and show if the maximum power point trackers work as expected. A large PV-system was installed on the roof of Gävle Arenaby during 2017. A measurement system for monitoring of the power of the system and of the solar irradiance was installed. Different parameters have been taken into account for the adjustment of the model that vary the performance of the system. These factors are: the irradiance received, the module temperature and the angle of incidence. It has been concluded that the results obtained indicate a correct adjustment of the theoretical power against the real power, which means, a correct operation of the generated model. Besides, the expected power follows a linear trend, reaching the power set by the manufacturer for Standard Test Conditions. The results show that the monitored modules-strings fulffill the promised performance and the method for installation testing work as expected. The linear correlation between corrected power and irradiance means that the maximum power point tracker in the inverter works independent of the power.

Neurobehavioural problems (i.e. cognitive impairment/behaviour problems) are common in childhood epilepsy. There are very limited data in children with early-onset epilepsy (CWEOE; onset ≤4 years). This study: (1) estimated the incidence of early-onset epilepsy, (2) described the spectrum and prevalence of neurobehavioural problems in CWEOE, and their risk factors, and (3) explored eye-gaze behaviour as a marker of neurobehavioural problems. This two year, prospective, population-based, case-controlled study identified newly diagnosed CWEOE in South East Scotland using active multi-source capture-recapture surveillance. CWEOE and controls completed detailed age-appropriate neuropsychological assessment - including Bayley III/WPPSI III, NEPSY II and social-emotional behaviour questionnaires. Children completed five eye-tracking tasks which assessed memory, attention, and social cognition. 59 CWEOE were identified (36M:23F); ascertainment-adjusted incidence 62/100,000 ≤4yrs/yr (95%CI 40-88). Asian and White-European children were at increased risk of epilepsy. 46 CWEOE (95%CI 62-84, 27M:19F) and 37 sex-age matched controls (18M:19F) underwent neuropsychological assessment. CWEOE had poorer general cognitive ability (p < .001, η²=.24), and increased parent reports of abnormal behaviour – significantly so in adaptive behaviour, ASD behaviours, hyperactivity/inattention, and atypical social behaviour. Overall 63% of CWEOE met criteria for neurobehavioural problems across multiple domains, vs 27% of controls (p < .001). Risk factors varied by domain. Prematurity and symptomatic/cryptogenic aetiology were common risk factors but other seizure-related variables were not. CWEOE with social problems exhibited abnormal eye-gaze behaviour toward social stimuli. Subtle atypicalities in sustained attention were noted in CWEOE, and an unexpected absence of antisaccade production was seen in all children. This is the first population-based study to describe the neurobehavioural profile, and explore eye-gaze behaviour, in CWEOE. Neurobehavioural problems are present, detectable, and highly prevalent in CWEOE, with implications for medical, psychosocial and educational resource provision, and provides an argument for early intervention. Eye-tracking may be a viable marker of neurobehavioural problems, and this study provides impetus for future eye-tracking investigations in CWEOE. Lastly, certain ethnic groups may be at increased risk of early-onset epilepsy in Scotland, providing opportunity for targeted intervention.

Introdução: O câncer de mama tem se mostrado a neoplasia mais incidente entre as mulheres de todo o mundo. Entretanto, percebe-se que a incidência apresenta grande variação geográfica, sugerindo que a ação dos fatores de risco varie acentuadamente entre as diferentes populações. Assim, estudos em determinadas populações sobre os seus fatores determinantes para câncer de mama podem contribuir para melhorar as estratégias de saúde pública, reduzindo sua morbi-mortalidade. Objetivo: Avaliar potenciais fatores de risco para câncer de mama em uma população de Porto Alegre e construir um modelo multivariado com estes fatores para predição de risco de câncer de mama. Delineamento: Estudo de coorte de base populacional. Método: Foram selecionadas 4.242 mulheres com idades entre 40 e 69 anos, sem história pregressa de câncer de mama, em atendimento em unidades básicas de saúde de Porto Alegre, as quais foram submetidas a rastreamento mamográfico. Elas foram avaliadas em relação aos seguintes fatores de risco: raça, tabagismo, etilismo, idade da menarca, idade do nascimento do primeiro filho, número de gestações, idade da última gestação, tempo de amamentação, história de ooforectomia e histerectomia, idade da menopausa, tempo de uso de reposição hormonal, uso de contraceptivo hormonal, histórico de biópsias mamárias, história familiar, peso e altura. A coleta de dados referente aos potenciais fatores de risco para câncer de mama foi realizada em dois momentos distintos, sendo a primeira coleta realizada durante o período de recrutamento das participantes compreendido entre os anos de 2004 e 2006 nas unidades básicas de saúde e a segunda coleta de dados foi realizada no momento em que as participantes compareciam ao centro de referência para a primeira visita de rastreamento mamográfico. As variáveis coletadas em ambos os momentos eram complementares, porém algumas variáveis estavam presentes em ambos os instrumentos de coleta de dados, as quais foram analisadas apenas as variáveis coletadas no segundo momento por serem mais atuais. As variáveis categóricas foram descritas por frequências e percentuais. As variáveis quantitativas com distribuição simétrica foram descritas pela média e o desvio padrão e as variáveis com distribuição assimétrica pela mediana e o intervalo interquartil (percentis 25 e 75). A associação entre câncer de mama e potenciais fatores de risco foi avaliada através de um modelo logístico multivariado. Em todas estas análises, um valor de p abaixo de 0,05 foi considerado estatisticamente significativo e foi analisado e considerado o IC95%. Resultados: Um total de 73 participantes de 4.242 apresentaram diagnóstico de câncer de mama. A análise multivariada considerando todas as pacientes, de 40-69 anos, mostrou que quanto maior a idade (OR=1,08, 95%IC: 1,04-1,12), maior a altura (OR=1,04, 95%IC: 1,00-1,09) e história de biópsia mamária anterior (OR=2,66, 95%IC: 1,38-5,13) estavam associadas a desenvolvimento de câncer de mama. Por outro lado, o número de gestações (OR=0,87, 95%IC: 0,78-0,98) e uso de terapia de reposição hormonal (OR=0,39, 95%IC: 0,20-0,75) foram associados como fator protetor para câncer de mama. Adicionalmente, realizamos análise separando as participantes em grupos de 40-49 anos e 50-69 anos, pois algum fator de risco poderia ter comportamento específico nestas faixas etárias. Nenhum fator de risco adicional foi identificado com esta estratificação etária, sendo que alguns fatores perderam significância estatística. No grupo de 40-49 anos, altura e biópsia mamária anterior mantiveram-se como fatores de risco. No grupo de 50-69, biópsia mamária anterior manteve-se como fator de risco e número de gestações e uso de terapia de reposição hormonal mantiveram-se como fator protetor. Diversas sub-análises não contribuíram para o entendimento como reposição hormonal o qual foi identificado como fator protetor. Conclusão: Em nosso estudo o modelo de predição de risco indica que devem ser avaliadas as seguintes variáveis nesta população específica de 40 a 69 anos: idade, altura, realização de biópsias mamárias anteriores, número de gestações e utilização de terapia de reposição hormonal. Estes achados estão de acordo com a literatura e agregados a outros estudos podem ajudar a compreender melhor o modelo causal de câncer de mama na região sul do Brasil. / Introduction: Breast cancer has been the most common cancer among women worldwide. However, it is clear that the incidence has great geographic variation, which suggests that the action of risk factors varies substantially between different populations. Thus, studies on the determining factors for breast cancer in certain populations may contribute to improve public health strategies and reduce morbimortality. Objective: Assess potential risk factors for breast cancer in a population in southern Brazil and build a multivariate model using these factors for breast cancer risk prediction. Methods: 4,242 women aged between 40 and 69 years without a history of breast cancer were selected at primary healthcare facilities in Porto Alegre and submitted to mammographic screening. They were evaluated for the following risk factors: race, smoking, alcohol consumption, age at menarche, age at the birth of first child, number of pregnancies, age at the last pregnancy, duration of breastfeeding, history of oophorectomy and hysterectomy, age at menopause, duration of hormone replacement therapy, use of hormonal contraceptives, history of breast biopsies, family history, weight and height. The collection of data related to potential risk factors for breast cancer was conducted at two different times. The first collection was held during the recruitment of participants from 2004 to 2006 at primary healthcare units and the second data collection was performed at the time the participants went to the reference center for the first mammographic screening visit. The variables collected at both times were complementary, but some variables were present in both data collection instruments, and only the variables collected in the second phase were analyzed because they were more current. Categorical variables were described as frequencies and percentages. Quantitative variables with symmetric distribution were described as the mean and standard deviation, and variables with asymmetrical distribution as median and interquartile range (25th and 75th percentiles). The association between breast cancer and potential risk factors was evaluated using a multivariate logistic model. In all these analyses, a p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant with a 95% CI. Results: A total of 73 participants among 4,242 had a breast cancer diagnosis. The multivariate analysis considering all patients aged 40-69 years showed that older age (OR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.04-1.12), higher height (OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00-1.09) and history of previous breast biopsy (OR = 2.66, 95% CI: 1.38 - 5.13) were associated with the development of breast cancer. Conversely, the number of pregnancies (OR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.78-0.98) and use of hormone replacement therapy (OR = 0.39, 95% CI: 0.20 - 0 75) were associated as a protective factor for breast cancer. Additionally, we performed an analysis separating the participants into groups of 40-49 years old and 50-69 years old, since a risk factor could have a specific behavior in these age groups. No additional risk factors were identified within this age bracket, and some factors lost statistical significance. In the 40-49 year old group, height and previous breast biopsy remained as risk factors. In the 50-69 year old group, a previous breast biopsy remained as a risk factor and the number of pregnancies and use of hormone replacement therapy remained as a protective factor. A number of sub-analyses did not help us understand why or how hormone replacement acted as a protective factor. Conclusion: In our study, the risk prediction model indicates that the following variables should be assessed in this specific population from 40 to 69 years old: age, height, having had previous breast biopsies, number of pregnancies, and use of hormone replacement therapy. These findings are consistent with the literature and combined with other studies may help to better understand the causal model of breast cancer in southern Brazil.

No description available.

This thesis develops novel statistical methodology for estimating the incidence and the prevalence of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) using routinely collected surveillance data. The robust estimation of HIV incidence and prevalence is crucial to correctly evaluate the effectiveness of targeted public health interventions and to accurately predict the HIV- related burden imposed on healthcare services. Bayesian CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are a key tool for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their competing contribution to the observed surveillance data. Improving the effectiveness of public health interventions, requires targeting specific age-groups at high risk of infection; however, existing methods are limited in that they do not allow for such subgroups to be identified. Therefore the methodological focus of this thesis lies in developing a rigorous statistical framework for age-dependent back-calculation in order to achieve the joint estimation of age-and-time dependent HIV incidence and diagnosis rates. Key challenges we specifically addressed include ensuring the computational feasibility of proposed methods, an issue that has previously hindered extensions of back-calculation, and achieving the joint modelling of time-and-age specific incidence. The suitability of non-parametric bivariate smoothing methods for modelling the age-and-time specific incidence has been investigated in detail within comprehensive simulation studies. Furthermore, in order to enhance the generalisability of the proposed model, we developed back-calculation that can admit surveillance data less rich in detail; these handle surveillance data collected from an intermediate point of the epidemic, or only available on a coarse scale, and concern both age-dependent and age-independent back-calculation. The applicability of the proposed methods is illustrated using routinely collected surveillance data from England and Wales, for the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM).

L’objectif de ces travaux est de connaître et évaluer les caractéristiques épidémiologiques des cancers de la cavité orale et de l’oropharynx. Ces deux localisations partagent des facteurs de risque en commun, et sont de fait souvent regroupées dans les études épidémiologiques. Cependant, la découverte de facteurs de risque spécifiques, telle l’infection par le virus du papillome humain pour les cancers de l’oropharynx, nous conduit à fournir des taux d’incidence spécifiques avec la classification anatomique de ces cancers. En réorganisant les données disponibles dans la base des données du Centre International de Recherche sur le Cancer, nous avons recherché les cas incidents au niveau mondial et recalculé les taux d’incidence dans les registres de 60 pays, pendant la période 1998-2002. La classification TNM n’est pas disponible dans les bases de données du CIRC. Nous avons identifié et contacté les registres du cancer qui ont déclaré son recueil. Cela nous a permis de créer et structurer une base des données innovante et inédite, dont les informations ont été analysées par rapport à la qualité. Finalement nous avons comparé la distribution de stades précoces et avancés dans 8 pays. Les résultats montrent que l’incidence des cancers de la cavité buccale et de l’oropharynx est très hétérogène au niveau mondial par rapport à la sous localisation des tumeurs, à l’âge d’incidence, au ratio homme/femme et au stade clinique. / Oral cavity and oropharynx cancers : International incidence and TNM classification in population-based cancer registries The aim of this work was to know and to evaluate the epidemiological patterns of oral cavity and ororpharynx cancers. These topographies share some common risk factors and they are often grouped in epidemiological studies. However, the implication of the human papilloma virus in oropharyngeal tumors lead us to provide incidence rates according to the anatomical classification of these tumors. We reorganized the incidence data available at the International Agency for Research on Cancer, for the period 1998-2002. Incidence rates were calculated for oral cavity and oropharynx cancers separately for 60 countries. As the TNM classification is not available on the IARC database we contacted the cancer registries that declared to abstract and collect it. Based on their data we created and structure a new, innovative and quality controlled. Finally, we compared the TNM stage distribution among 8 countries. The results show that the oral cavity and oropharynx cancers have a very heterogeneous distribution in the studied registries concerning tumor sub-sites, age of incidence, male to female ratio and clinical stage.

Epidemiology of the incidence of foodborne disease in the Czech Republic In my thesis I focused on the incidence of foodborne disease in the Czech Republic and their prevention. Group of foodborne disease, which is dominated by the fecal-oral transmission, is strongly influenced by the human factor. Foodborne disease easier occurs in communities of large group of people and in particular there where are problems with compliance with basic hygiene. Presented work is an abbreviated synthesized look at existing development and current severity of foodborne illnesses. The aim is not a detailed data analysis of individual foodborne illness, but their global assessment of occurrence in the Czech Republic. This is specifically focused only on selected infectious diseases where is possible to show long-term changes. A separate chapter is devoted to detailed incidence of viral hepatitis A, which is currently a very hot topic. Furthermore, I also present information on the recent epidemic of HAV in the Czech Republic in 2008. In the first section of presented thesis I describe process of collection and completion of related data in Czech Republic, also programs which are currently used for collection of data and their evaluation. I have also indicated external factors influencing disease emergence. In the second part, I compiled information on selected diseases and processed those into a graphs and maps of occurrence. Based on knowledge of the occurrence of these trends, it could be used for recommendation of effective infection control measures affecting the spread of the disease. The outcome of my thesis shows that in the Czech Republic are primarily important acute diarrheal diseases of bacterial and viral origin. For number of foodborne illnesses the trend of occurrence in Czech Republic is at very low level and the problem is with their import from developing countries with endemic occurrence. Certain foodborne diseases are eliminated, as we have in place specific immuno-prevention for long time. Good example is elimination of polio disease in the Czech Republic. Due to positive influence on certain diseases even more comes to the forefront diseases of infectious origin and importance of their actual and relative increase. As example are certain bacterial and viral diseases. Most significant are salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and viral hepatitis. This development can be worldwide observed. In economically highly developed countries all this is associated with the growth of the food industry. The incidence of the campylobacteriosis disease in the Czech Republic yearly exceeds 20 thousand cases, which is the most common human zoonosis. Given the importance of this issue the aim of my thesis is not proposing solution. The aim is only to map and point out the current epidemiological situation of occurrence of selected foodborne diseases in the Czech Republic.

Tax incidence of implementation of the third Rate of Value Added Tax. Thesis. Brno: Mendel University in Brno, 2016. Thesis deals with Tax incidence of implementation of the third Rate of Value Added Tax in the amount of 10 % on selected products (i.e. books, medication and children´s nutrition). On the basis of the monitoring of the prices of selected commodities conducted from October 2014 to March 2015, is determined and analysed the real Tax incidence of implementation of the third Rate of Value Added Tax to the buyer and to the seller.