Zugl.: Münster (Westfalen), Universiẗat, Diss., 2009.

The inflationary paradigm has become widely accepted as an accurate framework in which to describe the physics of the early universe, due both to the conceptual advantages of the idea and the agreement of its predictions with observational data. However, it remains to be determined which of the many detailed theories of inflation correctly describe the universe in which we live. Any such theory faces the challenge of making accurate predictions which agree with observation while also fitting consistently into a theory of high energy physics. Within this challenge there exists the great opportunity to constrain speculative models of fundamental physics. Inflation thereby provides an observational window into theories conventionally thought to be unreachable by experiment. Measurements of anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background radiation and the distribution of large scale structure have proved to be invaluable tools to probe inflation. There has been recent interest in examining the deviations from gaussianity in the statistics of the observed fluctuations. These higher order statistics, if conclusively discovered, stand to teach us a great deal about inflation. Forthcoming data including improved measurements of the cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization will provide additional means to investigate the inflationary era. It is important to understand precisely what impact inflation has had on the universe we observe and thus understand precisely what observation can tell us about inflation and how it may fit into a fundamental theory of physics. We will show the conditions under which the cosmological correlation functions generated during inflation are conserved, and thus identify the conditions which allow us to use observations today to learn about inflation. We first prove a general result which applies only to the leading approximation of the correlation functions, and then we discuss how to treat the additional complications that come with subleading corrections. Next, we will discuss the observational implications of achieving the conditions for conservation for a particular class of inflationary models. Lastly, we discuss one example of how observations can be used to probe non-inflationary physics beyond the standard cosmological model. / text

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Inkomstklyftor hindrar en ekonomis utveckling på flera sätt. Senare studier fokuserar på inflation och demokratins påverkan på inkomstklyftor. Resultaten är dock inte självklara och skiljer sig beroende på studien som genomförts. Denna uppsats bidrar till forskningen kring inflationen och demokratins påverkan på inkomstklyftor genom att fokusera på effekter i Latinamerika under åren 1976-1993. Detta eftersom Latinamerika har en historia med höga inkomstklyftor och har drabbats länge av hög och i vissa fall hyperinflation samtidigt som många av länderna blev demokratiska under perioden. Resultaten ger ytterligare belägg för att detta samband in te är självklara. Uppsatsen finner att inflation är en icke linjär funktion samt att det finns tillräckligt med statistiskt belägg för att demokrati har en negativ påverkan på inkomstklyftor. Hög- samt hyperinflation har en positiv påverkan på inkomstklyftor och hyperinflation har större effekt än höginflation. Uppsatsen finner dessutom att interaktionstermen mellan demokrati och hög- respektive hyperinflation är signifikant skiljt från noll och påverkar inkomstklyftorna positivt.

The goal of this dissertation is to analyze issues that arise when policy makers try to learn about the economy while their policies are affecting it. The dissertation takes the form of three essays. The first essay examines how optimal policy affects equiUbrium economic outcomes in environments in which agents are both imperfectly informed about the state of the economy and able to learn by observing the actions of others. This type of environment, in which there is social learning, has received growing attention, but to date there has been little examination of strategic policy making in such settings. In particular, the question of whether policy, in the absence of a commitment technology, can be designed to increase the speed of information revelation remains open. The essay builds on a real options model of investment and shows how this framework can be extended to derive time consistent policies and the related equilibrium outcomes in social learning environments. By comparing the equilibrium induced by a policy maker to both the laissez-faire outcome and the social optimum, it is shown that the policy maker is able to achieve the second best outcome and reduce delay to the efficient level even in the absence of commitment. The second essay raises the question of whether the fact that policy makers play a dual role, as both information gatherers and economic managers, can explain the flattening of the Phillips Curve relationship between inflation and real activity that has been observed in both Canada and the U.S. over the 1990s. The paper models the central bank as both a provider of liquidity in a world where pre-set prices would otherwise cause potential gains from trade to go unrealized and a gatherer of information about real developments in the economy. The bank's information complements that of private agents so that, the central bank and private agents both wish to learn from the other. In equilibrium, this interaction gives rise to a Phillips curve relationship which both exhibits causality running from real activity to prices and justifies a feedback from prices to the setting of monetary instruments. The model implies that a decline in the slope of the Phillips curve may be a result of improvements in the manner in which central banks gather information about the economy. An investigation of the data for Canada and the U.S. finds support for the model. The third essay attempts a more thorough empirical investigation of the issues raised in the previous chapter. The paper enriches the dynamic aspects of the model to further examine its properties, but focuses mainly on attempting to uncover whether the types of changes to the Phillips curve relationship which had been previously documented in Canada and the U.S. have occurred in other OECD countries. The paper investigates this question using both single country and panel estimation and finds that the phenomenon of a declining slope in the Phillips curve relationship is prevalent in OECD countries throughout the 1980s and 1990s. Finally, the paper attempts to exploit the cross country data to provide more formal tests of the model's predictions regarding policy innovations and inflation targeting regimes. The results suggest that the model compares favourably to other potential explanations of the decline in the slope of the Phillips curve.

This dissertation examines the welfare effects of inflation on employment and output in three different market settings. The theoretical frameworks build on recent studies in the monetary search literature that explicitly models the microfoundations of money and study how monetary policy interacts with real variables. The first essay studies the relationship between inflation and unemployment in a general equilibrium framework where inflation has differential effects on employed and unemployed workers. The model finds that inflation can either increase or decrease employment and output, depending on goods and labor market institutions. Sales taxes, the degree of competitiveness in the goods market and imperfect indexation of unemployment insurance benefits are the major factors determining the direction of this relationship. Through a comparison of these parameters, the model predicts an inflation-unemployment relation that is qualitatively consistent with the empirical evidences. The second essay, co-authored with Liang Wang and Randall Wright, investigates the effect of inflation on people's trading behavior in the goods market. By focusing on buyers' search intensity on the extensive margin, the model unambiguously predicts a rise in inflation leads to an increase in the speed with which agents spend their money and velocity. This is consistent with the phenomenon described by the conventional "hot potato" effect of inflation. We also discuss the welfare implications of different monetary policy. In some circumstances inflating above the Friedman rule may be optimal, but the effect of inflation on output is always negative. The third essay, co-authored with Allen Head, Guido Menzio and Randall Wright, examines the effect of monetary growth on output in a general equilibrium model where price stickiness arises as an equilibrium outcome. The model makes several predictions about individual firms' price adjustment behavior that are consistent with micro data. For instance, the frequency (duration) of price changes increases (decreases) with inflation and the price change hazard declines over time. In contrast to the New Keynesian literature, price rigidities in our model does not generate monetary non-neutrality. Higher inflation reduces real output in the long run, but changes in the aggregate price level has no effect on real allocations. / Thesis (Ph.D, Economics) -- Queen's University, 2010-07-17 00:52:41.487

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This study reports the development and use of an original methodology to measure inflation credibility, as well as the first results of such measurement in terms of an inflation credibility barometer. The barometer is an instrument measuring the degree of acceptance of the accuracy of historic inflation figures. Despite the lack of knowledge about inflation and the low inflation credibility recorded by this first calculation of an inflation credibility barometer for South Africa, valuable information about inflation is unveiled to the authorities. The research results serve as a benchmark, but cannot be compared to earlier research, as this study represents the first systematic measurement of inflation credibility in South Africa. The barometer yields better results than the limited current international measurement of perceptions of the accuracy of historic inflation figures. The barometer (i) reports the credibility of inflation figures as a figure between zero and 100; (ii) will highlight changes in credibility over time with repeated use; (iii) can be explained easily to the general public; (iv) provides for international comparison between countries; and (v) can be used by all countries. The use of inflation credibility barometers and changes in barometer readings over time can also serve as an early warning system for changes in inflation perceptions that might feed through to inflation expectations. Sampling results used to calculate a South African inflation credibility barometer show little public understanding of the rate of inflation. Owing to an increased focus on inflation figures in countries using an inflation-targeting monetary policy, central banks entrusted with such a policy should adopt a communication strategy highlighting the calculation and measurement of the rate of inflation. This study shows that no generally accepted international benchmarks for successful central-bank communication strategies have been developed, but the use of the methodology developed in this study will assist in the assessment of the effectiveness of communication strategies. This study makes three further contributions of significance to available literature on inflation in South Africa. The first is an analysis of price increases and inflation over a period of 85 years (1921 to 2006) and a selected comparison of salaries and remuneration over a period of 78 years (1929 to 2006). To this end data sets were developed for comparative purposes, thereby distinguishing between perception and reality about the accuracy of inflation figures over time. As this comparison has not been done before, a methodology was developed that can be used in future research. Based on these comparisons an inflation accuracy indicator (JAI) is developed for the first time. The research showed no systematic over or under-reporting of price increases, therefore confirming the general accuracy of the consumer price index (CPI) over time. As with the inflation credibility barometer, this methodology can be used internationally to confirm the accuracy of countries' inflation figures over time. This methodology can also be used by developing countries with capacity constraints in economic modelling and forecasting. The second contribution to available literature is the first analysis of South Africa's experience with inflation over a period of 85 years from the perspective of the central bank. This analysis highlights not only the difficulties encountered by a central bank to contain inflation, but also focuses the attention on the policy errors of the authorities in their quest to contain rising prices. The third contribution is an analysis of international and domestic initiatives aimed at improving the accuracy and measurement of inflation. The implications of these initiatives for developing countries are considered in the interest of a level international playing field between developed and developing countries. / Thesis (Ph.D.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 2007.

This study analyses various perspectives on inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework in South Africa. The study uses semi-structured interviews with participants who represent the perspectives of trade unions, SARB, and academics amongst others. All the interviews were recorded on audio tape to ensure accuracy and effective data collection. The interviews of all participants were analyzed to establish degrees of similarities and differences amongst them. The study also looks at the relationship between inflation and interest rates. The use of interest rates as a tool to curb inflation is also discussed, as is the effect of the exchange rate on inflation. The Philips Curve Theory and the Fisher Hypothesis provide empirical evidence to support inflation targeting. Moreover, the perspective raised by the ANC Alliance partners were that an inflation band of 3% - 6% is too narrow, too low and hampers economic growth. Then Analysis suggests a significant policy shift away from inflation targeting after the 2009 elections, as a result of dissatisfaction from the Alliance partners of the ruling party. The main objective of this study is to solicit perspectives on inflation targeting from various political parties, trade unions, businesses, the SARB and academics, as well as investigate case studies from other countries. An underlying task of this study is to predict what South Africans should expect from a Zuma Government with regard to monetary policy. / Thesis (MBA)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, 2009.