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This research examines the nature and impact of financial repression in the Trinidad and Tobago economy using cointegration time series techniques and disequilibrium econometrics. While the former is employed to estimate the impact on savings, investment and growth, the latter is mainly used to test whether the characteristics which depict a financially repressed economy are present in Trinidad and Tobago. Trinidad and Tobago has not previously been the subject of such a study, and neither estimation methods have been used to investigate financial repression. While the real interest has been most frequently used to measure financial repression, six proxies are utilised in this study: the real interest rate; dummy variables; commercial banks' reserve requirement; inflation; the difference between the domestic and the foreign interest rate and a variable to measure the overvaluation of a country's currency. With respect to the latter there are two definitions: the difference between the official and the blackmarket exchange rate and the degree of exchange rate misalignment. The results using real interest rates and inflation measures of financial repression suggest that while liberalisation cannot be seen as the solution to increasing savings and investment it may promote economic growth. When all the other proxies are examined the impact of financial repression on the economy is negative albeit statistically insignificant in most instances. There is some indication that exchange rate should be devalued so as to reduce exchange rate misalignment and reduce the widening gap between the official and blackmarket rate. On the basis of these results the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis cannot be rejected. However the results when inflation and real interest rates are the relevant proxies for financial repression as well as the low significance levels of other proxies, ought to serve as warning signals to avoid implementing drastic liberalisation measures too quickly.

ΛCDM cosmology is described in terms of general relativity and the Robertson-Walker metric. The evolution of the observable universe, currently dominated by dark energy (Λ) and cold dark matter (CDM), is presented in terms of its thermal history. CDM is extended to include an inflation epoch that accelerates the early expansion rate to near exponential levels. It is shown that inflation solves several problems in CDM and produces perturbations in the metric that lead to the observed anisotropies in the Cosmic Microwave Background and the formation of large scale cosmological structures. Various theories of inflation are explored. Predictions of inflation theories are compared to observations published by the Planck Collaboration. The paper concludes with an examination of “𝜶-attractor” theories of inflation based on a modified form of gravity.

Consumer price index captures the changing costs of the consumer basket of a typical household. Despite differences in spending patterns, change in con- sumer price index is used as a measure of inflation for the whole population. The aim of this thesis is to assess how close to the official inflation rate house- holds are and determine which groups have significantly different inflation. Using the Czech data from the Household Budget Survey over the 1990-2012 period we calculated specific inflation for each household in our sample. We first found out that on average only two thirds of households are close to the official inflation rate, which led us to the construction of subgroup price indices. In the empirical part, we examined the effect of household characteristics on inflation by applying the fixed effects estimation. We found that low-income households, pensioners, households in urban areas and households with few members have higher than average inflation.

Research report (M.Com. (Development Theory and Policy))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Business and Economic Sciences, 2013. / The global financial crisis has shaken not only the foundations of the financial system but also elements of macroeconomic stability, particularly monetary policy as it relates to the central bank institution and its fundamental operations. This paper is centred on examining the aspects of the inflation-targeting framework both theoretically and practically, as the fulcrum around which modern central banking functions, in the context of the crisis and the economic conditions thereafter. This discussion is based on the idea that there exist spaces for broadening and extending the mandate of the central bank beyond inflation targeting and that crisis conditions have gone to show that.

Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management in Finance and Investments in the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management Wits Business School at the University of the Witwatersrand February 2017 / For developed economies, it has been shown that the slope of the yield curve is a good indicator of the future path of real output and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive abilities of the yield curve slope for domestic growth and inflation in emerging market economies. Given the sovereign risk premia in these economies, it also assesses whether adding the sovereign risk spread to the yield curve spread improves the predictive content of the yield curve. It finds that the yield curve can predict real output at both the short and long forecasting horizons in emerging economies, the extent of which differs across countries. It also finds that the predictive performance for inflation is weaker than that of output growth, especially in the shorter forecasting horizons, and that the sovereign risk spread has additional predictive content for growth and inflation. This suggests that market participants and monetary policy makers in these economies should supplement their forecasting models with information contained in the yield curve to forecast domestic growth and inflation. / MT2017

This thesis examines the effects of budget deficits on the current account imbalance and inflation in African countries. The aims of this thesis are; first, to use higher frequency data. Most studies in African countries use annual data; by contrast we use quarterly data. Second, to examine the dynamic interaction between fiscal deficits and current account imbalances using VAR models. Third, to explore the long-run relationship between the twin deficits, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) of Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001). Fourth, to assess the long-run relationship between the twin deficits using the threshold autoregressive models of Hansen and Seo (2002). Fifth, to model inflation as being non-linearly related to fiscal deficits using the asymmetric cointegration approach of Enders and Siklos (2001). The second chapter discusses the theoretical framework and review of the empirical literature on twin deficits and fiscal deficits and inflation. We find much evidence in support of the twin deficits hypothesis that increase in government deficits leads to increase in the current account deficits. There is little empirical study on the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis. From the twin deficits literature, we observe that where the twin deficits hypothesis holds there is a high degree of openness and also countries operates a flexible exchange rate. The empirical literature on fiscal deficits and inflation suggests that fiscal deficits are inflationary in high inflation economies and developing countries, but not in low inflation and developed countries. The third chapter examines the time series properties of the series using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, the Phillip-Perron test and the Lee and Strazicich (2003) two-break unit root test. Results for the unit root test reveals that majority of the series are significant in their first differences. By contrast applying the LM two structural break test shows that the majority of the series are significant around two structural breaks. The fourth chapter analyses the twin deficits hypothesis using a VAR model. Results show that a positive government deficit shock increases the current account deficit in Botswana, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Morocco, South Africa and Tanzania while the current account improves in response to a positive government deficit shock in Cameroon and Uganda. Also in response to a positive government deficit shock, the current account remains constant in Kenya, Nigeria and Tunisia. The fifth chapter examine the long run relationship between the twin deficits hypothesis accounting for structural breaks using the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model. Results show that the fiscal deficit in the twelve African countries has long run impact on the current account deficit. The sixth chapter examines the relationship between fiscal deficit and current account deficit using the bi-variate threshold cointegration model of Hansen and Seo (2002) for nine countries where the fiscal deficits and current account deficits were significant at first differences. We find evidence of a positive cointegrating relationship between the current account and the fiscal balances for Botswana, Cameroon, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria and Tanzania; and a negative cointegrating relationship in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda. The seventh chapter examines the long-run relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation in eleven African countries using the TAR and M-TAR models of Enders and Siklos (2001). Results show that fiscal deficits and inflation are asymmetry in Botswana, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco and Tanzania. This thesis centres on the twin deficits and fiscal deficits and inflation in African countries. Conclusions from the empirical chapters indicate that large fiscal deficits is the cause of current account deficits, and that fiscal deficits are inflationary. This study further suggests that African countries should spend their resources on projects that will accelerate the level of growth and development.

Standard models of cosmology use inflation as a mechanism to resolve the isotropy and homogeneity problem of the universe as well as the flatness problem. However, due to various well known problems with the inflationary paradigm, there has been an ongoing search for alternatives. Perhaps the most famous among these are the cyclic universe scenarios which incorporate bounces. As these scenarios have a contracting phase in the evolution of the universe, anisotropies and inhomogeneities would be expected to blow up on approach to the bounce. Thus, it is reasonable to ask whether the problems of homogeneity and isotropy can still be resolved in these scenarios. In this thesis, I will focus on the problem of the resolution of the isotropy problem. I begin with a brief review of anisotropic, spatially homogeneous geometries of cosmological interest. Next, I review the existing literature on bouncing cosmologies, and discuss the mechanism of bounce studied in previously proposed models, as well as their theoretical and observational advantages and disadvantages. I then discuss the process of isotropisation in the contracting phase of each bounce. In this phase of the evolution, the mechanism of ekpyrosis is used in most cosmological scenarios which incorporate a contracting phase to mitigate the problem of anisotropies blowing up on approaching the bounce. I start by studying anisotropic universes and I then examine the effect of the addition of ultra-stiff anisotropic pressures on the ekpyrotic phase. I then consider evolving such anisotropic universes through several cycles with increasing expansion maxima at each successive bounce. This eventually leads to flatness in the isotropic case. My aim is to see if the resolution of the flatness problem also leads to a simultaneous resolution of the isotropy problem. In the next chapter, I consider the effect of non comoving velocities on the shape of this anisotropic bouncing universe. In the final section of my thesis, I consider anisotropic cosmological models within the context of canonical quantum cosmology and investigate the quantum behaviour of anisotropies.

Denna studie undersöker sambandet mellan reporänta och inflationstakt för att se om styrkan på sambandet avtar om Riksbanken övergår till en negativ reporänta. I studien ifrågasätter vi likviditetsfällan och estimerar en regressionsmodell som innehåller laggade värden på reporäntan. Detta tillvägagångssätt gör det möjligt att diskutera om penningpolitiken har tappat sin förmåga som ett ekonomiskt stabiliseringsverktyg när reporäntan gått över till negativ nivå. Studien visar att även om reporäntan är negativ så förefaller korrelationen mellan reporäntan och inflationstakten vara ungefär lika stark som i perioder med positiv reporänta. Detta resultat implicerar att Riksbanken kan stimulera ekonomin trots att reporäntan är negativ.

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