Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / This study reports the development and use of an original methodology to measure inflation credibility, as well as the first results of such measurement in terms of an inflation credibility barometer. The barometer is an instrument measuring the degree of acceptance of the accuracy of historic inflation figures. Despite the lack of knowledge about inflation and the low inflation credibility recorded by this first calculation of an inflation credibility barometer for South Africa, valuable information about inflation is unveiled to the authorities. The research results serve as a benchmark, but cannot be compared to earlier research, as this study represents the first systematic measurement of inflation credibility in South Africa. The barometer yields better results than the limited current international measurement of perceptions of the accuracy of historic inflation figures. The barometer (i) reports the credibility of inflation figures as a figure between zero and 100; (ii) will highlight changes in credibility over time with repeated use; (iii) can be explained easily to the general public; (iv) provides for international comparison between countries; and (v) can be used by all countries. The use of inflation credibility barometers and changes in barometer readings over time can also serve as an early warning system for changes in inflation perceptions that might feed through to inflation expectations.

There has been a multi-decade disinflationary period that, with the conjunction of recent pandemic-related events, led to extremes in various economic metrics: record lowest interest rates and inflation, increasingly loose monetary and fiscal policies leading to severe debt levels and money supply - all resulting in a multi-front pressure on inflation to start increasing, and after 30 years, for economic environments to reach an inflection point from disinflation to reflation. How would various market sectors perform if suddenly inflation starts to surge? Previous research of similar events, such as in the 1970s, as well as theory, points towards certain market sectors and asset classes, such as commodities, to outperform their peers. Research on this topic is fairly scarce, thus, to better prepare for such an inflationary event and gain insight on which market sectors are best to invest in or avoid, this paper conducts an investigation to explore that scenario. By looking at 11 major market sectors over 10 countries' historic inflationary points that shifted from disinflation to reflation, analysis determined that, while certain sectors are indeed more sensitive to changes in inflation than others, many more are sensitive to changes in interest rates that normally accompany inflation. Sectors such as Energy, Consumer Discretionary and Financials would perform well during this period, while sectors such as Information Technology would historically underperform. Contrary to the theory, not enough relation was discovered by the analysis towards the commodity sector as a whole to overperform, however, that does not mean that none exist. Further research is still required on this topic to increase knowledge and awareness so that the negative impact of inflationary events like the ones of the 1930s and 1970s can be avoided and even taken advantage of.

Die vorliegende Bachelorarbeit untersucht, inwieweit die Inflation die Buchbranche und deren Preis-entwicklung beeinflusst und welche Auswirkungen sie auf Verlage, den Buchhandel und die Leser-schaft bisher hatten, aktuell haben und zukünftig haben werden. Während der Untersuchung der Jahre 2019 bis 2022 und ihrer Auswirkungen auf die deutsche Verlags- und Buchhandelsbranche stehen insbesondere die Auswirkungen der Corona-Pandemie und steigender Betriebskosten im Mittelpunkt. Dabei wird ein besonderes Augenmerk auf die theoretischen Grundlagen der Inflation und deren Ein-fluss auf die Wirtschaft, speziell auf die Buchbranche, gelegt. Es wird eine gründliche Analyse der Entwicklungen und Herausforderungen für Verlage und den Buchhandel durchgeführt, wobei Umsatz-trends, die Bedeutung der Buchpreisbindung und die Preisgestaltung innerhalb der Branche berück-sichtigt werden. Zudem werden die Auswirkungen von Papiermangel und Transportschwierigkeiten auf die Buchproduktion sowie die steigenden Betriebsausgaben in den Bereichen Lohn-, Miet-, Ener-gie- und Transportkosten untersucht. Die Bachelorarbeit basiert auf einer umfassenden Analyse der aktuellen Situation der Buchbranche und bietet einen Ausblick auf zukünftige Entwicklungen und notwendige Anpassungen in der Preispolitik und Förderung. Außerdem wird verdeutlicht, dass die Inflation bestehende Probleme im Buchmarkt verschärft und Strategien erfordert, um die Branche wirtschaftlich zu stabilisieren und ihren kulturellen Beitrag langfristig zu sichern. Die Arbeit dient als Grundlage für die Diskussion über die zukünftige Ausrichtung der deutschen Verlags- und Buchhan-delsbranche und bietet Ansätze für weitere Forschungen in diesem Bereich.:Abbildungsverzeichnis 5 Abkürzungsverzeichnis 6 1. Vorwort 7 2. Theorie 8 2.1 Allgemeines zur Inflation 8 Inflationsgeschichte 8 Inflationsbegriff 9 Berechnungsarten (VPI und BIP-Deflator) 9 2.2 Inflationsarten 13 schleichende Inflation 13 trabende Inflation 13 Hyperinflation 14 zurückgestaute / verdrängte Inflation 15 Stagflation 16 verdeckte / unerwartete Inflation 17 Disinflation 17 gefühlte Inflation 18 Deflation 18 2.3 Inflationsursachen 19 monetäre (nachfrageinduzierte) Inflationstheorien 19 Nicht monetäre (kosten- und angebotsinduzierte) Inflation 20 Nachfrageinflation 21 Angebotsinflation 24 2.4 Inflationsauswirkungen 25 Verteilungswirkungen 25 Rentner und Pensionäre 25 Gläubiger-Schuldner 26 Lohn-Lag 27 Transfereinkommen 27 Vermögensverteilung 27 Wachstumswirkungen 28 leichte Preisänderung 29 Hyperinflation 29 Flucht in Sachwerte 29 steigende Inlandspreise 29 Arbeitsmarktwirkung (Phillips-Kurve) 30 2.5 negative Inflationseffekte 32 nicht antizipierte Inflation 33 antizipierte Inflation 34 2.6 positive Inflationseffekte 34 3. Praxis (Verlag, Buchhandel, Leser) 35 3.1 Branchenentwicklung und Rahmenbedingungen in der Buchbranche 35 Entwicklungen und Trends in der Buchbranche (2019-2022) 35 Umsatzanalyse 35 Entwicklung Editionsformen und Warengruppen 37 Verlagsbuchhandel 38 Sortimentsbuchhandel 39 Die Rolle der Buchpreisbindung 39 Preisgestaltung in der Buchbranche 41 3.2 Einflussfaktoren auf die Preisgestaltung in der Buchbranche 42 Herausforderungen in der Buchproduktion 43 Papiermangel und Transportschwierigkeiten 43 Titelproduktion 44 Kostensteigerungen bei Betriebsausgaben 45 Lohnkosten und Stellenabbau 45 Mietkosten und Aussterben der Innenstädte 48 Energiekosten 49 Transportkosten 50 Auswirkungen auf die restliche Wertschöpfungskette 52 Vermarktung 52 Konsumenten 52 4. Zusammenfassende Betrachtung/ Fazit 54 Anhang 57 Literaturverzeichnis 72 Selbstständigkeitserklärung 76

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Recent increases in inflation rates make it essential that inflation be considered and properly treated in engineering economic studies. This research report presents a survey to determine how practitioners of engineering economics are accounting for inflation in their studies. After looking at inflation in general, and defining it, this report identifies the major existing techniques of handling inflation. It then discusses each in terms of advantages and disadvantage in evaluating investment projects. Finally, the report recommends an appropriate technique, and presents a computer program which calculates the present worth based on this technique which permits the user to analyze the effects of inflation over a range of values.

No / There are problems in practice with dealing with inflation and exchange rate changes in the financial analysis of projects. This paper reviews existing procedures for dealing with changing prices, identifies problem areas and explains how they can be dealt with. The approach is manageable in its complexity, comprehensive in its coverage and consistent in so far as possible with both economic and accounting disciplines. It is illustrated with an example of a productive sector project with a ten-year life cycle.

This study investigates the relationship between stagflation and price stability and full employment and four economic scenarios and the economic condition. The data used in the study were obtained from government publications and were analyzed using hierarchical multiple regression. The standard inferential apparatus were employed. Give independent variables were found to be significant in explaining the causes of stagflation. These were: absolute change in M1, oil embargo of 1974, corporate profits, output per hour, and Iranian crisis of 1979. In conclusion, the causes of economic instability do not rest with one single theory or factor, but a combination of several.

This thesis investigates the relationship between inflation and long term GDP/capita growth on the OECD countries from 1970–2014. Data is secondary collected from acknowledged organizations and institutes and consist of a paneldataframework. The study is conducted with a Log-Semilog-regression model analysis and the dependent variable in question isGDP/capita growth. The main focus of the study is the effects of the independent variable inflation on growth. Several independent explanatory variables are included to avoid bias and help determine the impact of inflation on growth. The empirical resultssuggest a positive effect of inflation on gdp/capita growthin most models. The findings are not in line with estimations of this study in regards to theory. The results could however be explained by otherwork on the subject and give rise to curiosity for further studies.