A common belief about inflation and economic growth has developed during recent years. This belief is that a “low” and stable inflation rate favors economic growth. The underlying arguments for this are that a low inflation rate create a beneficial playground for all participants. A playground which will meliorate investments and ensure a stability for consumers which in return will give a favorable environment for the economy to thrive. This paper aims to clarify this relationship between inflation and economic growth in Sweden between the period 1971-2017 and thus investigate the co-integration relation between the two variables. Additional test will be conducted to explore a potential threshold level of inflation. This threshold level is defined as the point where inflation starts to harm growth.

Thesis (M. Com. (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2015 / South Africa is among a number of countries that have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework since 1990. This policy was adopted in the year 2000 in South Africa, and there have been a growing number of concerns about the effects of inflation targeting on economic growth in South Africa. The main purpose of this study is to determine these effects of inflation targeting on economic growth in South Africa. In this paper, the author used co-integration and error correction model to empirically examine the long-run and short-run dynamics of inflation targeting effects on economic growth. A final conclusion that inflation targeting does not have significant negative effects on economic growth is drawn from two interesting results. Firstly, there is an insignificant negative relationship between inflation targeting and economic growth. Secondly, the influence that inflation targeting has on the relationship between the lag of inflation and economic growth is also insignificant. These findings have important policy implications. Therefore, the critique that the SARB achieves relatively low inflation at the expense of low economic growth is a misconception. This led to the conclusion that the SARB should maintain its monetary policy framework of inflation targeting which has helped it to reduce inflation. Keywords: Inflation targeting, inflation, economic growth, error correction model, monetary policy.

I study to what extent consumers’ expectations of inflation are formed differently in the short run for countries that belong to a monetary union, which implies a common inflation-targeting central bank, in contrast to countries with national inflationtar geting central banks. I measure if there are differences in consumers’ reaction s to inflation deviation from target, persistency of expected inflation and the ability to predict accurate inflation in the respective considered countries. I also measure average deviation and average absolute deviation of actual and expected inflation from the inflation target. The results suggest that the respective country’s average reaction to inflation deviation from target, degree of persistent expectation and the ability to predict accurate inflation rates are in the same range as well as the results for the average and average absolute deviations. Therefore, I conclude that there are no substantial differences in the formation of consumers’ expectations in countries belonging to a monetary union and countries with national inflation-targeting central banks, in the short run.

Harvard Univ., Diss.--Cambridge (Mass.), 1993.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Johns Hopkins University, 2004. / Vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 114-119).

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / Em modelos inflacionários não-isentrópicos, a contribuição para o espectro de potência é essencialmente proveniente das flutuações térmicas. Esta é a situação oposta a da inflação fria, onde as flutuações de origem quântica fornecem toda contribuição para o espectro. Pouca ou nenhuma importância tem sido dada ao regime intermediário, onde as flutuações quânticas e térmicas são comparáveis. Neste trabalho, tendo como bases a inflação não-isentrópica e a inflação estocástica de Starobinsky, propomos um quadro geral onde é possível tratar de maneira conjunta, explícita e transparente tanto a contribuição de origem quântica quanto a de origem térmica para o espectro de potência do inflaton.O espectro de potência geral obtido reproduz, nos limites apropriados, todos os resultados caracteríssticos tanto da inflação fria, quanto da inflação não-isentrópica. Com o objetivo de checar a consistência e a viabilidade do modelo, foram usados os típicos potenciais polinomiais característicos da inflação caótica. Apesar destes potenciais já estarem praticamente descartados pelas observações no contexto da inflação fria, surpreendentemente pudemos constatar que efeitos dissipativos e de temperatura são capazes de restaurar a compatibilidade dos mesmos com os parâmetros cosmológicos inferidos através dos dados do nono ano do WMAP. Através da inserção de tais efeitos na dinâmica de grandes escalas do inflaton, estendemos ainda alguns resultados relacionados ao cenário conhecido como inflação eterna. / In nonisentropic inflationary models, the contribution to the power spectrum is essentially derived from thermal fluctuations. This is the opposite situation than the cold inflation, where the quantum fluctuations provide the total contribution to the spectrum.Little or no importance has been given to the intermediate case, where quantum and thermal contributions are comparable. In this work, relying on nonisentropic inflation and Starobinsky's stochastic inflation program, we propose a general framework that aims to describe explicitly and in a transparent way both quantum and thermal contributions to the inflaton power spectrum. The result for the power spectrum reproduces, when we take appropriate limits, the standard expressions of cold and nonisentropic inflation. In order to check model consistence and its viability, we made use of typical single field polynomial-type inflaton potential. Despite this kind of potential be strongly disfavored by observations in the cold inflation context, we surprisingly found that dissipative and temperature effects are able to restore their compatibility with cosmological parameters inferred from 9-year WMAP data. Farther, by inserting such effects on the large scale dynamics of inflaton field, we extend some results related to the eternal inflation scenario.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / Em modelos inflacionários não-isentrópicos, a contribuição para o espectro de potência é essencialmente proveniente das flutuações térmicas. Esta é a situação oposta a da inflação fria, onde as flutuações de origem quântica fornecem toda contribuição para o espectro. Pouca ou nenhuma importância tem sido dada ao regime intermediário, onde as flutuações quânticas e térmicas são comparáveis. Neste trabalho, tendo como bases a inflação não-isentrópica e a inflação estocástica de Starobinsky, propomos um quadro geral onde é possível tratar de maneira conjunta, explícita e transparente tanto a contribuição de origem quântica quanto a de origem térmica para o espectro de potência do inflaton.O espectro de potência geral obtido reproduz, nos limites apropriados, todos os resultados caracteríssticos tanto da inflação fria, quanto da inflação não-isentrópica. Com o objetivo de checar a consistência e a viabilidade do modelo, foram usados os típicos potenciais polinomiais característicos da inflação caótica. Apesar destes potenciais já estarem praticamente descartados pelas observações no contexto da inflação fria, surpreendentemente pudemos constatar que efeitos dissipativos e de temperatura são capazes de restaurar a compatibilidade dos mesmos com os parâmetros cosmológicos inferidos através dos dados do nono ano do WMAP. Através da inserção de tais efeitos na dinâmica de grandes escalas do inflaton, estendemos ainda alguns resultados relacionados ao cenário conhecido como inflação eterna. / In nonisentropic inflationary models, the contribution to the power spectrum is essentially derived from thermal fluctuations. This is the opposite situation than the cold inflation, where the quantum fluctuations provide the total contribution to the spectrum.Little or no importance has been given to the intermediate case, where quantum and thermal contributions are comparable. In this work, relying on nonisentropic inflation and Starobinsky's stochastic inflation program, we propose a general framework that aims to describe explicitly and in a transparent way both quantum and thermal contributions to the inflaton power spectrum. The result for the power spectrum reproduces, when we take appropriate limits, the standard expressions of cold and nonisentropic inflation. In order to check model consistence and its viability, we made use of typical single field polynomial-type inflaton potential. Despite this kind of potential be strongly disfavored by observations in the cold inflation context, we surprisingly found that dissipative and temperature effects are able to restore their compatibility with cosmological parameters inferred from 9-year WMAP data. Farther, by inserting such effects on the large scale dynamics of inflaton field, we extend some results related to the eternal inflation scenario.

Submitted by Luiz Felipe Laudari Giovannetti (luiz.giovannetti@itau-unibanco.com.br) on 2013-12-18T11:20:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Luiz Felipe_Inflação de Serviços_Pressao_de_demanda_ou _de_custos.pdf: 845142 bytes, checksum: a21285a150bb6d5c5061cf9f029f7d45 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-12-18T14:28:56Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Luiz Felipe_Inflação de Serviços_Pressao_de_demanda_ou _de_custos.pdf: 845142 bytes, checksum: a21285a150bb6d5c5061cf9f029f7d45 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-12-18T15:46:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Luiz Felipe_Inflação de Serviços_Pressao_de_demanda_ou _de_custos.pdf: 845142 bytes, checksum: a21285a150bb6d5c5061cf9f029f7d45 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-11-29 / A persistence in services inflation in Brazil between 2005 and 2013 and a large change in relative prices between tradables and non-tradables have occurred at the same time as wages have grown faster and unemployment has decreased sharply in the country. This paper aims to identify the main factors behind the behavior of the price of services, and in particular, whether wages have mainly pushed services inflation from the costs side or from the demand side. Based on a VAR model with exogenous variables to control for costs and demand channels, this study concludes that the rise in wage costs has been more important than demand effects in explaining high services inflation during this period. / A persistência da inflação de serviços no Brasil entre 2005 e 2013, e forte alteração do preço relativo entre preços de serviços e preços de comercializáveis coincidiu temporalmente com forte aumento da renda nominal da população e queda do desemprego. Esta dissertação tem como objetivo identificar os fatores que foram mais importantes na formação dos preços dos serviços e se os salários contribuíram para a aceleração dos preços através do aumento de custos no setor ou através do aumento da demanda por estes itens. A partir de um modelo VAR com variáveis exógenas de controle para custos e para a demanda, o estudo conclui que as pressões de custo foram mais importantes para explicar o comportamento da inflação de serviços no Brasil no período considerado.

This paper examines Czech experience with inflation targeting. It tries to assess empirically character of deviations from inflation targets throughout the time. It assess situation also in an international context. Consequently it analyse ability of IT regime to anchor inflation expectations in context of CNB?s forecasting performance. Results imply that although deviations were quite frequent in the Czech Republic, their occurrence has not been a barrier for delivering lower inflation and its lower volatility. Notwithstanding, its volatility remains significantly above the range experienced in the EU and the EMU countries. Regarding the inflation expectations, monetary policy surprises tend to be smaller over time,signalising that IT regime is priced by the markets. Thus, credibility of the CNB, concerning anchoring of inflation expectations, seems to improve after introduction of IT regime. It also indicates that IT regime is a quite appropriate regime for the upcoming period of time, which will be end up by the entry in the EMU.

The objective of this research is to analyze residential, unsecuritized and securitized real estates’ ability to hedge inflation in Sweden and compare it to stocks’, bonds’ and gold’s ability to hedge inflation.This research is based on both descriptive statistical and econometric analysis methodology with use of both quarterly and annual data series. First are the correlations between assets and actual, expected and unexpected inflation analyzed. Inflation betas are then estimated for all assets based on an ordinary least square model. The results indicate that, during the researched period 1993-2011, none of the studied exposures of real estate are a hedge against actual, expected nor unexpected inflation. As expected the results also indicate that both stocks and bonds have a negative relation to inflation, while gold seems to be a partial hedge against inflation. However, all inflation betas have a low R square and low statistical significance in general. Real estate in Sweden is not a hedge against inflation as it traditionally is perceived to be and real estate returns might be driven by business cycles, accessibility to financing and expectations of interest rates rather than inflation.