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La croissance rapide du commerce mondial au cours des deux dernières décennies a été caractérisée par une évolution économique accrue couplée à de l’instabilité économique des pays émergents. D’après la littérature, la spécialisation technologique est souvent associée à la croissance, la compétitivité et la stabilité économique. Partant de ce double constat, nous analysons dans cette thèse l’impact de la spécialisation des pays émergents sur leur croissance et leur stabilité économique et nous évaluons l’impact de la compétitivité (elle-même liée à la spécialisation) de ces pays sur leurs performances à l’exportation.Dans un premier chapitre, nous délimitons le contour définitionnel des notions de spécialisation selon les différentes théories.Après avoir déterminé le plus objectivement possible une liste de pays émergents en se référant aux critères les plus utilisés dans la littérature et après avoir mesuré le degré de spécialisation de ces pays, nous étudions la carte de leur spécialisation technologique sur la période 1995-2014. D’après cette cartographie, nous remarquons une mauvaise orientation de la spécialisation dans ces pays. Ces derniers se caractérisent essentiellement par une forte spécialisation dans les articles manufacturés à forte intensité de main-d’œuvre et provenant de ressources naturelles et dans les articles à faible technologie qui sont des spécialisations à faible valeur ajoutée. La spécialisation dans la haute technologie est en grande partie tirée par les importations, les produits exportés étant principalement issus d’activités de montage.Dans le duexième chapitre, nous évaluons dans un premier temps l’impact des spécialisations technologiques des pays émergents sur la croissance économique et nous comparons les résultats trouvés à ceux des pays développés et en développement. Nous constatons que les différents types de spécialisation ont un impact positif sur la croissance des pays émergents. Mais cet impact positif, ne peut pas occulter la mauvaise orientation de cette spécialisation (résultat du chapitre 1).Dans un deuxième temps, nous étudions l’impact de la compétitivité (prix et hors-prix) des pays émergents sur l’évolution de leurs exportations. Nous remarquons que l’impact de la compétitivité-prix sur l’évolution des exportations des pays de notre échantillon varie selon l’indicateur utilisé. Il est négatif quand nous utilisons le taux de change et positif quand nous utilisons la productivité.Nous trouvons aussi que l’impact de la compétitivité structurelle, expliquée par les dépenses dans la haute technologie et par la spécialisation dans la haute technologie, est positif. Cela peut être expliqué par la demande mondiale croissante dans les produits de haute technologie.Dans le troisième et dernier chapitre, nous nous intéressons à la relation entre spécialisation et stabilité économique et nous comparerons cette relation avec celle observée dans les pays développés. Nous constatons que les pays dont la spécialisation est basée sur les ressources naturelles sont plus instables et que l’impact de la spécialisation dans la haute technologie dépend du niveau de développement du pays. L’impact est négatif pour les pays développés et positif pour les pays émergents. Cette différence dans l’impact peut être due à la politique d’assemblage utilisée par la plupart des pays émergents, politique qui consiste à importer la majeure partie des produits de haute technologie (HT) sous forme de pièces et composants. / The fast growth of the world trade during the last two decades was characterized by an improved performance as well as an economic instability of emerging countries. According to the literature, the technological specialization is often associated with growth, competitiveness and economic stability. Recognizing this, we analyze the impact of the specialization of emerging countries on their growth and on their economic stability and we estimate the impact of the competitiveness (itself related to specialization) of these countries on their export performance.In a first chapter, we outline the contours of the notion of specialization according to the various theories.Having determined as objectively as possible a list of emerging countries referring to the most criteria used in the literature and having measured the degree of specialization of these countries, we study the map of the technological specialization in emerging countries over the 1995-2014 period. According to this cartography, we notice a bad orientation of their specialization. These countries are essentially characterized by a strong specialization in Labour-intensive and resource-intensive manufactures and low-tech items that are low value-added specialization. The specializing in high technology is largely driven by imports. Exports are mainly drawn by assembly activities.In the second chapter, we first assess the impact of technological specializations of emerging countries on their economic growth and we compare the results with those found in the developed and developing countries. We find that different types of specialization have a positive impact on the growth of emerging countries. But this positive impact cannot hide the misdirection of this specialization (result of Chapter 1).Second, we study the impact of competitiveness (price- and non-price competitiveness) of emerging countries on the development of their exports. We note that the impact of price-competitiveness on the evolution of the exports of the countries in our sample depends on the indicator used. It is negative when we use the exchange rate and positive when we use productivity.We also find that the impact of the structural competitiveness, measured by the expenses in the high technology and by the specialization in the high technology, is positive. It can be explained by the more and more increasing world demand in the high-technology products.In the last chapter, we focus on the relationship between specialization and economic stability and we compare this relationship with that observed in developed countries. We find that countries whose specialization is based on natural resources are more unstable and that the impact of specialization in high technology depends on the country's level of development. The impact is negative for developed countries and positive for emerging countries. This difference in the impact may be due to the assembling policy used by most emerging countries and which leads to import of high-tech products (HT) as parts and components.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse external economic stability of the Czech Republic. The external economic stability is defined and basic theory related to especially intertemporal approach to external balances is reviewed. Special consideration is given to the transition character of the economy. The descriptive as well as econometric analysis (VAR and cointegration models) find that the Czech Republic is not dangerously imbalanced. A potential threat is found to be reresented by government budget deficits due to the problem of twin deficits.

The purpose of this paper is to analyse external economic stability of the Czech Republic. The external economic stability is defined and basic theory related to especially intertemporal approach to external balances is reviewed. Special consideration is given to the transition character of the economy. The descriptive as well as econometric analysis (VAR and cointegration models) find that the Czech Republic is not dangerously imbalanced. A potential threat is found to be reresented by government budget deficits due to the problem of twin deficits.

Yes / Every day the news is filled with increasingly depressing news about the economy. The recent Autumn Statement (29 November 2011) to the House of Commons by UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, confirmed that the cause of a potential ?double dip? recession in the British economy lay largely at the doors of the European Union and, in particular, the eurozone. It is easy to understand why some commentators feel that perhaps the European single currency is in its death-throes, and that the European Union itself needs major structural revisions. But for the sake of perspective it is important to remember the underlying rationale behind the ?European project? which remains as relevant today as it did in the 1950s.

This study investigates the relationship between stagflation and price stability and full employment and four economic scenarios and the economic condition. The data used in the study were obtained from government publications and were analyzed using hierarchical multiple regression. The standard inferential apparatus were employed. Give independent variables were found to be significant in explaining the causes of stagflation. These were: absolute change in M1, oil embargo of 1974, corporate profits, output per hour, and Iranian crisis of 1979. In conclusion, the causes of economic instability do not rest with one single theory or factor, but a combination of several.

The purpose of this study is to identify the core of the problem of why the democratization in Russia didn’t achieve a full consolidation after the Soviet Union fell as well as why the country returned to an authoritarian regime. This is a theory based study, where the two theories are tested against the case of Russia in 1991-2004. This, in order to find a common factor in response to the questions. The chosen time perspective is based on Gorbachev's resignation until Putin's first term of office. The theories used are Linz and Stepan's five arenas for a successful consolidation of democracy and Huntington's theory of authoritarian nostalgia. Since the theories will be tested and found support in different texts, the method used is a qualitative text analysis, more specifically a content analysis. The result indicates that the lack of economic stability is a major issue that plays a central role. Unless this criteria is met, there will be no successful consolidation in the country and a backlash to the authoritarian regime will happen. In conclusion, the study also shows common factors in both theories that are of an explanatory element to the study's existing problem.

The topic of the final thesis is the impact of oil on economic and political stability of petro-states. The first chapter summarizes basic data about oil, its reserves, production and consumption, as well as about oil trade and oil prices. Basic information about OPEC is included in this chapter.The second chapter includes different theories about effects of oil wealth on economic, political and social development in petro-states. The third chapter is an attempt to apply theories from chapter two on OPEC countries. The aim of the thesis is to present impacts of oil on OPEC countries.

This paper studies the endogenous evolution of investment behaviour under the various macroeconomic circumstances, which might be relatively constructed by free-float, fixed and target zone regimes as the economic stability policy. It applies the issues of stock price target zone policy to a simultaneous stochastic differential equation system. We construct the stochastic macro model which utilized the basic conception of Dornbusch [1976] with the different price adjustment mechanism. In addition, we intend to apply the topological method which used by Miller and Weller [1991] to analyze the general economic property from the non-recursive model. The main purpose of this paper is to discuss how the public’s expectation affects the dynamic loci of commodity and stock price when the public agents have the perfect or imperfect credibility. We utilize this model to investigate whether stock price target zone regime will have honeymoon effect or not, when the government announce to execute the stock price target zone policy in the various situations. Moreover, we discuss whether stock price target zone can simultaneously stabilize other variables in the different situations.

The traditional model of Western mental health treatment for survivors of torture has focused mainly on posttraumatic stress disorder and related conditions. This model is symptoms-focused in which the goal is to reduce pathology. In this model, the mental health professional is the expert and the survivors learn from the professionals. Using grounded theory methodology, the current study seeks to expand the understanding for treatment of torture survivors by investigating, from the perspective of the torture survivors, the process of “getting better” after torture. By asking the survivors to explain this process, this study broadens the focus of areas of healing and intervention to include social, psychological, political, and biological aspects of their lives that need to be impacted in order for them to get better. Eleven adult torture survivors (9 men and 2 women) from various African and Asian countries described their process of getting better through qualitative interviews. A model of getting better was developed to describe this process. The central phenomenon of this process is moving on from difficult past experiences. Participants described a multi-dimensional process that includes various environmental factors and intrapersonal beliefs and coping strategies that promoted moving on and getting better. These multi-dimensional themes include using belief and value systems, establishing safety and stability, and establishing social support in order to move on. Once the survivors felt a sense of safety and support, they felt empowered to take action to move on from their past. These action strategies include disclosing torture experiences, controlling memories, supporting others, and utilizing available supports. Moving on led to improved relationships, more adaptive functioning, improved health, and release from emotional pain. Findings of this study were consistent with current literature documenting recovery after torture and other traumatic experiences. Implications for both theory and practice are discussed and directions for future research are delineated.