Dissertation (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A number of themes run through this dissertation, the first of which is the importance of money in facilitating decentralised decision making by lowering transaction costs and by contributing to the definition and maintenance of property rights. A second (and more melancholy) theme is that government control of money has often been poor, and systematically so since the War. This leads to a third theme, the combined force of economic theory and central bank practice of the last quarter of a century or so has led to clearer limits to the discretionary power of government in the management of money. These limits are increasingly expressed as contingent rules containing explicit targets for monetary policy, for example an inflation target. The objective of this thesis is to evaluate inflation targeting both normatively and positively as a framework for monetary policy. A set of criteria from the New Institutional Economics literature is used to evaluate the extent to which inflation targeting captures the lessons from the three themes mentioned above, in both normative and positive dimensions. The practical importance of the thesis is in the application of this institutional evaluation to the inflation the targeting regime of recent vintage in South Africa, which leads to a number of policy recommendations. Part I consists of three chapters of which the first two are mainly abstract and concerned with the theory of the New Institutional Economics. The third chapter has a historical character and considers the history of and recent trends in monetary policy. These trends are consistent with adopting an inflation target as a framework for monetary policy. The second part of the thesis starts with a theoretical consideration of monetary policy rules in chapter 4, and is followed by a discussion of one such rule, inflation targeting, in chapter 5. This discussion starts with the theory of inflation targeting, but proceeds to details of actual inflation targeting central banks, with special reference the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). The history of anti-cyclical monetary in South Africa is also considered empirically to determine whether inflation targeting would represent an important new direction on this issue. Chapter 6 follows with a literature review of the empirical record of the first decade of inflation targeting internationally. The seventh chapter is the core of the thesis and provides the institutional evaluation of inflation targeting. This evaluation is applied to the present inflation targeting regime in South Africa, and leads to recommended policy reforms. These policy reforms are mapped on a two-dimensional chart that indicates their priority and the expected cost of the associated institutional reform. Additionally a new econometric methodology is used in chapter 7 to gauge the contribution of monetary policy to the more stable economy of recent years. In part 3 the focus of the thesis turns to certain political economy considerations that arise from the independence of the central banks (as is typical for inflation targeting central banks). Chapter 8 considers the issue of central bank independence and is followed by an application of constitutional economics to inflation targeting in chapter 9. Whereas the bulk of the dissertation is concerned with the positive evaluation of inflation targeting, chapter 9 attempts a normative evaluation using the Pareto-Wicksell criterion. Both the positive and normative assessments in this thesis support the case for inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policy, / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van hierdie proefskrif is 'n institusionele evaluering van inflasieteikening as raamwerk vir monetêre beleid. Vir hierdie doel is 'n stel kriteria saamgestel uit die literatuur van die Nuwe Institusionele Ekonomie met die oog op 'n positiewe en 'n normatiewe evaluering van inflasieteikening as 'n raamwerk vir monetêre beleid. Die praktiese waarde van die tesis lê in die stel institusionele hervormings wat voorgestel word om die stelsel van inflasieteikening in Suid- Afrika meer doeltreffend en normatief meer gewens te maak. Etlike temas loop deur die proefskrif, maar veral drie verdien vermelding in die opsomming, naamlik: eerstens, die belangrikheid van die monetêre stelsel om gedesentraliseerde besluitneming te vergemaklik en as bydraende faktor in die vestiging van eiendomsreg. Tweedens, hoewel moderne owerhede tipies 'n monopolie op die plaaslike geldeenheid bestuur, het die monetêre bestuur in die moderne tydgewrig (veral sdert WOII) veel te wense oorgelaat. Hierdie wanbestuur was boonop telkens sistematies. Derdens, beide teoretiese ontwikkelings en die praktyk van sentrale bankwese het die afgelope kwarteeu aanleiding gegee tot 'n terugrol van die regering se rol in monetêre beleid en die toenemende gebruik van sistematiese beleidsreëls as raamwerk vir monetêre beleid. Die eerste deel van die proefskrif beskou die teorie van die Nuwe Institusionele Ekonomie in hoofstukke 1 en 2. Die derde hoofstuk is histories van aard en beskou die geskiedenis van moderne monetêre beleid en die tendense wat daaruit afgelei kan word. Afdeling twee fokus meer nougeset op inflasieteikens en begin met die teorie van beleidsreëls in hoofstuk 4. Die vyfde hoofstuk volg met 'n interpretasie van inflasieteikens as een van die sogenaamde terugvoerreëls vir monetêre beleid wat sedert die laat sewentigerjare ontwikkel is en sedertdien gewild geword het. 'n Toenemende aantal ontwikkelde- en ontwikkelende-lande het gedurende die afgelope dekade (en langer) inflasieteikens as raamwerk vir monetêre beleid aangeneem. Hoofstuk ses evalueer die empiriese rekord van hierdie kort geskiedenis. Die sewende hoofstuk is die kern van die tesis en bevat die institusionele evaluering van die inflasieteikens aan die hand van die kriteria saamgestel in hoofstuk 1, met spesifieke toepassing op Suid-Afrika. 'n Nuwe ekonometriese tegniek word ook in hoofstuk 7 gebruik om die bydrae van monetêre beleid tot die meer stabiele ekonome van onlangse tydgewrig te kwantifiseer. Die netelige institusionele kwessie van onafhanklik sentrale banke word rue 111 hoofstuk 7 bespreek rue, maar staan oor tot deel drie van die proefskrif waar die politieke-ekonomie van inflasietekens bespreek word. Hoofstuk 8 handel dan oor onafhanklike sentrale banke, met toepassing op die SARB, terwyl hoofstuk 9 'n toepassing is van die konstiutionele ekonomie op inflasieteikening. Hoofstukke 8 en 9 bied derhalwe verdere positiewe evaluering van die instrument-onafhanklike SARB onder inflasieteikens, asook 'n normatiewe evaluering van inflasieteikens aan die hand van die Pareto-Wicks ell kriteria wat uit hoofstuk 2 spruit. Beide die normatiewe en positiewe evaluerings ondersteun die saak ten gunste van inflasieteikens as raamwerk vir monetêre beleid.

M.Com. (Economics) / Inflation is the continuous, meaningful increase in the price level of an economic system. A distinction can be drawn between demand-pull factors (where demand exceeds the supply) and cost-push factors (prices are pushed higher by an increase in wages or input prices) as causes of inflation. Cost-push inflation is the result of the exercising of bargaining power by certain groups, e.g. trade unions. Prices can escalate as a result of competition between trade unions and firms for higher wages or competition between trade unions for a bigger portion of the national income. The aim of trade unions is to maintain the standard of living of their members, whose only source of income is the sale of their labour. Trade unions have a number of mechanisms, e.g. strikes and the withdrawal of co-operation, by means of which they can force an employer to meet their demands. Trade unions usually bargain collectively with employers regarding their wage demands. There are great differences of opinion among economists whether trade unions are the cause of inflation or whether they only contribute to inflation. Trade unions grouped themselves in organisations to look after the concerns of their members while employers have also grouped themselves in organisations. The government also plays an important role in the labour market, especially because' of the payment of unemployment benefits. Trade unions can contribute to inflation because wage increases are declared nationally, trade unions refuse to· accept any cuts in wages, contracts between employers and employees make provision for increases in salaries and also include a stipulation regarding cost of living adjustments. Trade unions can increase wage demands by being more militant, the spillover effect and wage imitation. The first white trade unions were established in the second half of the previous century and black trade unions in the early 1900' s. The numbers of especially the black trade unions increased considerably during the seventies and eighties, to such a degree that black trade unions have almost 3 million members and consist of 23,9 percent of the total economically active population. As a result of their great numbers, strikes have also shown an escalating tendency (there were 908 strikes per year during the period 1987 to 1992). The annual average inflation rate in South Africa reached double figures in 1974 and has not moved back to single figures since. If wage demands since 1985 are compared to this, the wage demands from 1987 to 1991 were higher each year than the inflation rate. Trade unions definitely have an influence on wages as the increase in minimum wages of unskilled labourers were mostly higher than. that of skilled workers. The increase in productivity has however, not kept up to date with the increase in wage rates.

There is a considerable amount of literature arguing that economics and business journalism is growing. This subfield of journalism is important as economics issues impact on everyday lives of the people. Media have an important role to inform people about the economy and give them a voice to take part in public debates. The down side though is that economics journalism is criticised for not serving the public well in this aspect. Evidence suggests that economics journalism lost its critical character and that there is closer in economics debates. Using content analysis, this study examines coverage of inflation as reported by South African print media. Three major findings emerged: 1) Evidence shows that there are a variety of cases of inflation. 2) There are also similarities among newspapers on what they view as causing inflation. 3) However, media do not draw sources from all sectors of society. The elite, who are educated people and government officials, are over-accessed while the ordinary citizens - although also affected by inflation – are marginalized. Company and government sources top source lists in the media. It is argued that sources play an important role in shaping the news content. They do so by identifying problems and prescribing potential solutions. They set parameters and define terms of reference. However, media also play a mediating role. They do so by selecting sources and structuring sources in stories. They may chose to quote or report what their sources say and even comment on it. This study concludes that in South Africa ordinary citizens have no voices in economics debates. Media used bureaucratic sources only and that is a consonant agenda on inflation coverage amongst newspapers. The heavy reliance on bureaucratic sources and the exclusion of some sectors of society in sources lists raises questions about impartiality of these sources on issues relating to their organisations and institutions. These are not viable sources that could provide information that could expose abuse of power.

Since the 1970s, the international economic system has become prone to the volatility and undue effects associated with booms and busts. This forty year period spanning the present has exhibited restrained growth and repressive economic development. Critical changes to the system are presented by the transition from "Fordism" to the post 1970s neoliberal regime and the globalization of world markets. Underpinning this transformation is an ideological shift towards free market capitalism and the adoption of "reduced form" market models. These "reduced form" models appear to hinder economic sustainability as their grounding in economics fails to account for real economic activity. This thesis aims to provide a more holistic perception of sustainability, one that provides a sound basis on which to develop sustainable economic policy. The Regulationist Approach presents the requisite understanding of economic sustainability required within this research. The inclusion of economic, historical and socio-political fields of research proposes a wider understanding of the political economy and sustainability. The application of the Regulation Approach to the South African economy illustrates many problem areas that require attention. The examination found that firstly, aggregate demand in the South African economy was unsustainable due to the debt driven nature of demand under the asset price bubble of the mid to late 2000s. Secondly, aggregate supply also proved unsustainable as government is failing to provide any substantive growth within important sectors of the economy such as education and the provision of general services. Furthermore, the adoption of inflation targeting in South Africa poses a barrier to sustained economic growth as it focuses singularly on price inflation. The "reduced form" model of inflation targeting fails to account for market failures and a number of vital indicators of sustainability most notably, debt levels and asset prices. The inclusion of these indicators, and financial stability more generally, are found to provide a more holistic and sustainable approach to macroeconomic policymaking.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2003. / Some digitised pages may appear illegible due to the condition of the original hard copy / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Since 1989 an increasing number of countries have introduced inflation targeting as a monetary policy and many of them have achieved great success. This apparent success has led some to speculate that inflation targets might also be desirable for countries at somewhat lower stages of economic development, including South Africa. The idea of an inflation target for South Africa has, in fact drawn growing support as a practical response to the increasing difficulty of monetary targeting with a liberalised capital account and was implemented in the country on 23 February 2000. Inflation targeting makes the exchange rate less flexible in response to foreign shocks and thus lessens the automatic stabilisation provided by flexible exchange rates. There is some argument to suggest that South Africa may not be a good candidate for an inflation target relative to other countries that have introduced similar policies because of the relative importance of foreign shocks and the weak linkage between monetary policy and inflation. The study of both developing iand developed countries and also countries with and without explicit inflation targeting policies has shown that there is no evidence to substantiate that South Africa should have less success at curtailing inflation through the adoption of inflation targeting. The study explores the economic history and tradition of each of the evaluated countries, namely Australia, Chile, Germany, New Zealand, South Africa and the United States of America, with specific reference to the history and cause of inflation. It is summarised for each individual country based on the policy or approach that the country has adopted and the apparent success thereof. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Vanaf 1989 het al hoe meer lande inflasie mikpunte as deel van hul monetêre beleid ingestel en baie van hulle het groot sukses behaal. Hierdie klaarblyklike sukses het ander daarnatoe gelei om te glo dat inflasieteikens ook van belang in minder ontwikkelde lande, Suid- Afrika ingesluit, mag wees. Die konsep van inflasiemikpunte het inteendeel positiewe reaksie uitgelok as 'n potensiële antwoord op toenemende moeilike valute teikens en is in Suid- Afrika vanaf 23 Februarie 2000 toegepas. Inflasieteikens veroorsaak dat wisselkoerse weens buitelandse ekonomiese skokke minder buigbaar is, dit verlaag dus die outomatiese stabiliteit wat buigbare wisselkoerse voorsien. Daar word gesê dat Suid- Afrika, in vergelyking met ander lande, wat die beleid alreeds toegepas het, nie 'n goeie kandidaat is vir inflasieteikens is nie weens die belangrikheid van buitelandse skokke en die swak koppeling tussen monetêre beleid en inflasie. Hierdie studie, wat beide ontwikkelde en ontwikkelende lande, met of sonder formele inflasieteikens, ondersoek, dui aan dat daar geen bewys is dat Suid- Afrika minder sukses kan behaal deur die toepasssing van formele inflasieteikens nie. Die studie is gemik daarop om die ekonomiese geskiedenis en tradisie van elk van die bespreekte lande, naamlik, Australië, Chile, Duitsland, Nieu- Seeland, Suid- Afrika en die VSA te ondersoek, met spesifieke verwysing na die geskiedenis en oorsaak van inflasie in daardie lande. Elke land word volgens die beleid of benadering wat toegepas is, en die klaarblyklikr sukses daarvan, opgesom.

M.Com. (Economic Development and Policy Issues) / Monetary policy is not only the process by which the monetary authority of a country controls the supply of money, but is furthermore a sufficient tool to overcome the problem of economic growth and unemployment. This can take place when the policy instruments – interest rates (Repo) and money supply growth (M3) – have significant effects on these macroeconomic variables. However, the issue of the efficacy of monetary policy on GDP growth and employment creation is at the centre of debates among researchers. Some researchers are of the opinion that the objective of monetary policy in achieving and maintaining price stability is founded on the idea that inflation is not good for economic growth, employment creation and income equality but, instead, only secures macroeconomic environment. In South Africa, the efficiency of different monetary policy tools, inflation and money-supply targeting, on economic performance has been questioned. Moreover, the issue of the high level of unemployment remains controversial among scholars. Therefore, the structural vector-error correction model (VECM) methods was used with quarterly data in order to investigate the impact of aggregate money supply (M3), interest rate (Repo) and real exchange rate on CPIX (inflation) , economic growth (GDP volume rate) and unemployment (joblessness rate) in South Africa for the period 1986 to 2010. The results show that both monetary-policy regimes have positively impacted on economic growth, but the impact of the pre-inflation-targeting regime is higher. Moreover, a weak positive liaison between monetary policy and unemployment is observed, but the post-inflation-targeting regime shows a higher percentage decrease in unemployment than the pre-inflation targeting period. Beyond any doubt, the research approves the engagement of the SARB to monitor (target) CPIX (inflation) due to its ability to ensure price stability and create a stable economic environment favourable to economic performance.

The control of inflation requires a forecast of the future path of the price level and its indicators. Targeting inflation directly requires that the central bank (SARB) form forecasts of the likely path of prices paying close attention to a variety of indicators that shows the predictive power of inflation in the past periods. Inflation indicators might be cointegrated with the rate of inflation to predict the future inflation rates. Forecasting inflation may be very difficult at a particular period due to the fact that the array candidate indicators of inflation may neither be very stable nor very strong in their relationships with the rate of inflation. Although this might be the case, this research uses testable effects of each of the South African inflation indicators to the rate of inflation using econometrics tools to find that they have a long run trend with the rate of inflation in South Africa. It has been found that each of the indicator variables has a long run relationship with the rate of inflation. The major conclusion is that inflation indicator variables like money supply (M3), oil price, gold price, total employment, interest rates, exchange rates and output growth can be useful inflation indicators in targeting the future trends of inflation in South Africa according to the data used in this research although some studies in some countries find that inflation targeting is an insufficient framework for monetary policy in the presence of financial exuberance. The money supply, the oil prices, interest rates, the exchange rates, prices of gold, the employment and output growth are co-integrated with the rate of inflation representing a long-run relationship.

The fact that South Africa has a floating exchange rate policy as well as an open trade policy leaves the country’s import, producer and consumer prices susceptible to the effects of exchange rate movements. Given the central role that inflation targeting occupies in South Africa’s monetary policy, it becomes necessary to determine the nature of influence of exchange rate changes on domestic prices. To this end, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import, producer and consumer prices in South Africa. Furthermore, it explores whether the direction and size of changes in the exchange rate have different pass-through effects on import prices, that is, whether the exchange rate pass-through is symmetric or asymmetric. The paper uses monthly data covering the period January 1980 to December 2005. In investigating ERPT, two main stages are identified. The initial stage is the transmission of fluctuations in the exchange rate to import prices, while the second-stage entails the pass-through of changes in import prices to producer and consumer prices. The first stage is estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) cointegration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage pass-through is determined by estimating impulse response and variance decomposition functions, as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. The study follows Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle’s (2004) approach in estimating pass-through asymmetry with respect to appreciations and depreciations. In addition, the thesis adapts the analytical framework of Wickremasinghe and Silvapulle (2004) to investigate the pass-through of large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results suggest that ERPT in South Africa is incomplete but relatively high. Furthermore, ERPT is found to be higher in periods of rand depreciation than appreciation which supports the binding quantity constraint theory. There is also some evidence that pass-through is higher in periods of small changes than large changes in the exchange rate, which supports the menu cost theory when invoices are denominated in the exporters’ currency.

This study investigates the contribution of bank credit extension to the private sector to inflation in South Africa, covering the period 1970:1-2006:4. The long-run impact of bank credit on inflation is investigated by means of the Johansen co integration model. The short-run ynamics of the inflation is subsequently modelled by means of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies two co integrating equations linking inflation and its eterminants. The results suggest that the long-run relationship between inflation and bank credit to the private sector is negative and statistically significant at 10% level. The determinants that are significant at 5% level are: money supply, real gross domestic product, the money market rate, rand/dollar exchange rate and imports. The results are consistent with previous findings. The speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the equilibrium path was found to be negative at 10.56% per quarter, which is consistent with findings by Ohnsorge and Oomes (2003) for Russia. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the co integrating vector describes a long-run inflation equation. The impulse response functions confirm the theoretical expectations except for the import prices. The most persistent and significant shocks observed are on impulse response functions of money supply and bank credit to the private sector. The variance decomposition results also suggest that inflation responds quicker to innovations from money supply and the money market rate. The overall results provide evidence that the surge in inflation is associated with an increase in money supply as well as the instability in exchange rate. The effects of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation are reflected through changes in import prices. Based on the results we conclude that an increase in bank credit during the period 1970:1-2006:4 had a negative mpact on inflation in South Africa.

An analysis of the current monetary policy framework in South Africa, which followed the exampie of a number of developed countries by implementing an inflation-targeting regime in 2000, is presented. The primary goal of the framework is to establish price stability, with financial stability a secondary objective. However, as has been evident in other countries, price stability does not guarantee financial stability. Movements in asset prices and the development of asset price bubbles have resulted in a number of episodes of financial instability, which negatively impacted on the growth and development of the countries involved. In addition, the majority of these episodes have occurred in periods of low and stable inflation. The dissertation analyses whether monetary policy would be more efficient if asset price movements were incorporated within the inflation-targeting regime. International experience indicates that early intervention of monetary policy can dampen the negative effects that result when an asset price bubble "bursts". However, if the monetary authorities act too early the effects on the economy can be just as disruptive. The literature is scrutinized to establish what the most effective form of monetary policy should be. The results are then transposed within the South African context to establish how the South African Reserve Bank can best ensure both price and financial stability.