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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Risco global da gripe aviária

Hubner, Alysson January 2007 (has links)
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Sociologia Política. / Made available in DSpace on 2012-10-23T03:25:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 248376.pdf: 623101 bytes, checksum: a7887c8e8a25d571d42e7efaa3330f08 (MD5) / O presente trabalho analisa sob uma perspectiva sociológica as medidas preventivas tomadas frente aos riscos da Gripe Aviária no Estado de Santa Catarina (Brasil). Ainda que a doença não esteja presente no Brasil, consideramos importante entender como tais medidas são formuladas e adotadas e que articulações sociais, políticas e econômicas são desencadeadas frente a um tipo de risco que pode ser de graves conseqüências na alta modernidade. O principal foco de estudo foi como o Estado e as agroindústrias em Santa Catarina (entre as mais importantes do país) estão percebendo e agindo com relação à Influenza Aviária. A dissertação inicia com a definição do que é a Gripe Aviária, traçando uma incipiente perspectiva histórica da doença, para em seguida contextualizá-la internacional, nacional e regionalmente. A luz da teoria da estruturação (Anthony Giddens) e da sociedade de risco (Ulrich Beck), consideramos como a ciência lida com as contingências e ambivalências na sociedade de risco ou alta modernidade. No trabalho de campo foram realizadas entrevistas junto aos membros do Comitê Estadual de Sanidade Avícola do Estado de Santa Catarina, espaço social onde ocorre a interação entre Estado e Agroindústria. Este Comitê desenvolve as medidas preventivas. A partir das entrevistas foram observadas diferenças quanto ao discurso político e científico; a emergência de seis pontos de tensão articulados ao risco; e algumas questões específicas dos fatores sociais e políticos da Influenza Aviária. A partir deste material e de uma extensa pesquisa bibliográfica, a Influenza Aviária é analisada na dinâmica da globalização, levantando-se três tipos de ambivalências: a ambivalência da Influenza Aviária, a do risco em si, e a dos meios de comunicação. No final foram avaliados os diferentes tipos de conhecimento envolvidos no debate, no qual estão presentes os peritos, os meios de comunicação e os leigos. Uma conclusão desta dissertação aponta para a heterogeneidade de conhecimentos envolvida nos conflitos e o debate sobre o controle da Gripe Aviária, abrangendo diferentes racionalidades, como aspecto central para entender as medidas tomadas para seu controle. Em termos gerais, procuramos mostrar como a constituição e atividades do Comitê Estadual expõem as complexas relações entre riscos globais e ações regionais. The present work analyzes through a sociological perspective the preventive measures taken in Santa Catarina State (Brazil) in relation to possible risks of the Avian Flu. Even if the illness is not present in Brazil, we consider important to understand how such measures are formulated and adopted and what economic, political, and social articulations are triggered due to a type of risk that can be of serious consequences in the high modernity. The main focus of study was how the State and the agro-industries in Santa Catarina (between the most important of the country) perceive and acte regarding the Avian Flu. The dissertation initiates with the definition of the Avian Flu, drawing an incipient historical perspective of the illness, for right away put it into international, national and regional contexts. Concerning the theory of structuration (Anthony Giddens) and of the risk society (Ulrich Beck), we consider how science deals with the contingencies and ambivalences in high modernity. In the fieldwork were carried out interviews with the members of the State Committee for the Avian Sanitary Control of Santa Catarina State, social space where take place the interaction between State and agro-industries. This Committee develops the preventive measures. From the interviews we observed differences regarding the scientific and political discourse; the emergency of six tension points articulated to the risk; and some specific social and politics factors. From this material and an extensive bibliographical research, the Avian Flu is analyzed in the dynamic of globalization, raising three kinds of Ambivalences: the one related to the Avian Flu, to the risk itself, and to the media. At the end we evaluate the different kinds of knowledge involved in the debate, in which are present the experts, the media and the laymen. A conclusion of this dissertation emphasized the importance of considering the heterogeneous knowledge involved in the conflicts and the debate about the Avian Flu, including different rationalities, to the understanding of its control. In general terms, we considered that the constitution and activities of the State Committee expose the complex relations between global risks and regional actions.
2

A gripe aviária e a volatilidade dos preços da carne de frango

Dantas, Fabiano January 2008 (has links)
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Sócio-Econômico. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia. / Made available in DSpace on 2012-10-23T23:48:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 262524.pdf: 519374 bytes, checksum: d7241e195df4a2650217a26b013cdf5b (MD5) / O surto de gripe aviária ocorrido no final de 2005, tendo como focos principais a União Européia e a Ásia, causou grandes perdas econômicas ao setor. O Brasil, apesar de ser considerado país livre da doença, também sofreu impactos por conta do grande volume de exportações de carne frango realizado pelo país, e que foram prejudicadas pela grande contração na demanda externa. O presente trabalho busca identificar impactos deste evento na volatilidade dos preços e dos retornos dos preços internos e externos da carne de frango. Além disso, foi realizado um estudo a respeito da relação entre o preço externo e interno da carne de frango. Por meio dos métodos de cointegração confirmouse a hipótese de existência de uma relação de longo prazo entre os preços internos e externos da carne de frango. Com relação aos impactos do surto na volatilidade de preços e retorno dos preços, os modelos GARCH construídos indicam o aumento da volatilidade no caso do retorno dos preços internos e a redução no caso do retorno dos preços externos. The outbreak of avian influenza occurred in late 2005, with the major targets being the European Union and Asia, generated great economic losses to the sector. Brazil, despite being considered a country free of this disease, also felt impacts due to chicken meat exports made by the country, which has been hampered by the large contraction in external demand. This study seeks to identify impacts of this event in the volatility of prices and returns of internal and external prices of chicken meat. Moreover, a study was conducted on the relationship between the external and internal price of chicken meat. Through the methods of cointegrating confirmed the possibility of existence of a external and domestic prices of chicken meat. With relation of the impacts of the outbreak of volatility in prices and return prices, the models constructed GARCH indicate the increased volatility in the case of return on domestic prices and a reduction in case of return on external prices.
3

Molecular epidemiology and biological properties of avian influenza viruses of subtype H5N1 and H9N2

Parvin, Rokshana 24 February 2015 (has links)
Rokshana Parvin Molecular epidemiology and biological properties of avian influenza viruses of subtype H5N1 and H9N2 Institute of Virology Submitted in November 2014 Pages 106, Figures 7, Table 1, References 339, Publications 4 Keywords: Avian Influenza Virus, H5N1, H9N2, Reassortment, Mutation, Replication and Growth kinetics Introduction Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are the major cause of significant disease outbreaks with high morbidity and mortality worldwide in domestic birds resulting in great economic losses. Especially the subtypes of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) H5N1 and low pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIV) H9N2 became the most prevalent AIVs in poultry causing regular disease outbreaks in many countries of Asia, the Middle East and Europe and are still ongoing events. Therefore, continues monitoring, surveillance and characterization of the circulating viruses are of high priority. Objectives The current study was designed for three main objectives; i) Molecular epidemiology of the HPAIV H5N1 in migratory birds in Bangladesh, ii) Molecular characterization of the AIV subtype H9N2 and iii) Biological properties of the AIV subtype H9N2. Materials and methods In first the part of the investigations, two HPAIV H5N1 strains were confirmed from 205 pools of fecal surveillance samples in Bangladesh. The two isolated H5N1 viruses were characterized by genome amplification and sequence analysis of the all eight genome segments. In the second part of the investigations, a confirmed AIV H9N2 from a retrospective analysis derived from a poultry farm in Bangladesh was characterized. Furthermore, three AI-H9N2 viruses were isolated and characterized from a commercial broiler and broiler breeder flock with clinical respiratory manifestations in Egypt. Full length genome amplification, cloning, sequencing and comprehensive phylogenetic analyses were performed for all eight genome segments. In the final part of the study, four selected Eurasian lineage H9N2 viruses - three G1 sub-lineages H9N2 and one European wild bird H9N2 virus - were propagated in embryonated chicken eggs (ECE) and Madin-Darby canine kidney epithelial cell culture systems. The ECE-grown and cell culture-grown viruses were monitored for replication kinetics based on tissue culture infectious dose (TCID50), hemagglutination assay (HA) and quantitative real time RT-PCR (qRT-PCR). The cellular morphology after infections was analyzed by immunofluorescence assay and cellular ELISA was performed to screen the sensitivity of the viruses to amantadine. Results The two newly isolated HPAIV H5N1 strains from migratory birds belonged to clade 2.3.2.1 and clustered together with other recently isolated viruses in Bangladesh derived from ducks, chickens, quails and crow. The amino acid sequences were also genetically similar although, some unique amino acid substitutions were observed. These substitutions were not related to the known conserved region of the molecular determinants of the virus. The phylogenetic analyses of the isolated AIV H9N2 from Bangladesh and Egypt revealed their close relationship with their respective contemporary isolates and maintained ancestor relation with A/Quail/HK/G1/1997 confirming that all studied H9N2 belonged to G1 sub-lineage. All six internal gene segments of the Bangladeshi AIV H9N2 showed high sequence homology with the HPAIV subtype H7N3 from Pakistan. In addition, also the PB1 internal gene showed high nucleotide homologies with a recently circulating HPAI-H5N1 virus from Bangladesh. Thus, the Bangladeshi AIV H9N2 is genetically a unique strain which shares internal gene segments with different HPAI viruses and takes part in reassortment events. On the other hand, the internal gene segments of the Egyptian H9N2 viruses were similar to the other members of the G1 sub-lineage with no evidence of reassortment events. In this virus rather point mutations within their respective gene segments are observed. With regard to the biological characterization, the three G1-H9N2 viruses produced comparatively higher titer than the Eurasian wild type-AIV H9N2. Overall, the ECE-grown viruses yielded higher titers than cell culture-grown viruses. Following a single passage in cell culture, individual nucleotide substitutions were noticed in HA, NA and NS gene sequences but none of them are related to the conserved region that can alter virus pathogenesis or virulence. All of the studied H9N2 viruses were sensitive to amantadine. Conclusion The present study demonstrated for the first time the presence of HPAI H5N1 in the wild migratory bird population in Bangladesh and determine as one of the major cause to introduce the new clade of HPAIV H5N1 into the Bangladeshi poultry flocks. The Bangladeshi AIV H9N2 strain has exhibited two independent reassortment events with HPAIV of subtype H7N3 and H5N1.The Egyptian AIV H9N2 strains were limited to regular point mutations which is very common for AIVs. The G1-H9N2 viruses showed a higher replication profile when compared to European wild bird-AIV H9N2. Both the ECE and MDCK cell system allowed efficient replication but the ECE system is considered as the better cultivation system for H9N2 viruses in order to get maximum amounts of virus within a short time period. In this study new strains of AIV H9N2 and H5N1 with significant genetic constitutions were described. Thus, continuous monitoring of the field samples, rapid reporting soon after outbreaks, molecular characterization to confirm the emergence of new reassortant strains and the biological properties to know its impact on the virulence are recommended. / Rokshana Parvin Molekulare Epidemiologie und biologische Charakterisierung von aviären Influenzaviren der Subtypen H5N1 und H9N2 Institut für Virologie Eingereicht im November 2014 Seiten 106, Abbildungen 7, Tabelle 1, Literaturangaben 339 , Publikationen 4 Schlüsselwörter: Aviäres Influenza Virus, H5N1, H9N2, Reassortment, Mutation, Replikation und Wachstumskinetik Einleitung Weltweit kommt es in der Geflügelproduktion durch Infektionen mit aviären Influenzaviren (AIV) zu hohen Morbiditäts- und Mortalitätsraten und damit verbunden zu hohen wirtschaftlichen Verlusten. Zu den bedeutenden AIV in der Geflügelwirtschaft werden die hoch pathogenen aviären Influenzaviren (HPAIV) des Subtyps H5N1 sowie AIV des Subtyps H9N2 gezählt. Letztere besitzen die Charakteristika von niedrigpathogenen aviären Influenzaviren. Durch diese Subtypen kommt es regelmäßig in vielen Ländern in Asien, im Nahen Osten und Europa zu wiederholten Krankheitsgeschehen. Dies bedingt die dringende Notwendigkeit von andauerndem Monitoring, Überwachung und Charakterisierung der zirkulierenden Viren. Ziele der Untersuchungen Die vorliegende Studie soll folgende drei Hauptfragestellungen beantworten: i) Molekulare Epidemiologie des HPAIV H5N1 bei Zugvögeln in Bangladesch, ii) Molekulare Charakterisierung von AIV des Subtyps H9N2 und iii) Biologische Eigenschaften von AIV des Subtyps H9N2. Materialien und Methoden Der erste Teil der Arbeit befasst sich mit zwei HPAIV Stämmen des Subtyps H5N1, welche im Monitoring Programm in Bangladesch von insgesamt 205 gepolten Kotproben, isoliert wurden. Die Charakterisierung der beiden Isolate erfolgte durch Vervielfältigung der acht Genomsegmente und nachfolgende phylogenetische Analysen. Der zweite Teil der Arbeit beschreibt die retrospektive Analyse eines AIV des Subtyps H9N2, welches von einer Geflügelproduktionsanlage in Bangladesch eingesandt wurde. Weiterhin wurden aus einer Geflügelmast- und Legehennenhaltung mit respiratorischer Symptomatik drei AIV des Subtyps H9N2 isoliert und charakterisiert. Auch hier wurde das gesamte Genom amplifiziert, kloniert und nachfolgend phylogenetisch analysiert. Im letzten Teil der Studie wurden vier europäische AIV H9N2 Isolate, von welchen 3 Isolate zur H9N2 Sublinie G1 gehören und ein Isolat von einem Wildvogel selektiert und in embryonierten Hühnereiern (EHE) und auf Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) Zellen passagiert. Mittels 50% tissue culture infectious dose (TCID50), Hämagglutinationstest (HA) und RT-real-time-PCR (qRT-PCR) wurden von diesen so passagierten Viren die Vermehrungskinetik bestimmt. Die Morphologie der infizierten Zellen nach Infektion wurde mittels Immunfluoreszenztest analysiert. Eine Bestimmung der Amantadin Empfindlichkeit dieser Viren erfolgte mit einem ELISA. Ergebnisse Die beiden neuen HPAIV des Subtyps H5N1 von Zugvögeln können in die Clade 2.3.2.1 eingeordnet werden und clustern mit kürzlich aus Enten, Hühnern, Wachteln und Krähen isolierten AIV aus Bangladesch. Eine Verwandtschaft der Viren konnte auch auf Ebene der Aminosäure Sequenz gezeigt werden, obwohl einige einzigartige Aminosäure Austausche nachgewiesen wurden. Diese Austausche zeigen keine Verbindung mit bekannten konservierten Regionen der molekularen Determinanten der Viren. Die phylogenetische Analyse der AIV aus Bangladesch und Ägypten zeigt eine deutliche Verbindung mit den derzeit zirkulierenden AIV auf diesem geographischen Gebiet sowie die Verwandtschaft zu dem Isolat A/Quail/HK/G1/1997. Dies bestätigt, dass die in dieser Studie analysierten AIV zu der Subline G1 gehören. Alle sechs internen Gensegmente des AIV H9N2 aus Bangladesch zeigen eine hohe Sequenz Homologie mit einem HPAIV des Subtyps H7N3 aus Pakistan. Zusätzlich zeigt das interne Gene PB1 eine hohe Homologie auf Nukleinsäureebene zu einem derzeit in Bangladesch zirkulierenden HPAIV des Subtyps H5N1. Somit ist das AIV H9N2 aus Bangladesch als ein einzigartiges Isolat anzusehen, welches durch Reassortierung interne Gensegmente mit hochpathogenen AIV teilt. Im Gegensatz dazu, sind die internen Gene des AIV H9N2 aus Ägypten sehr ähnlich zu anderen Mitgliedern der Sublinie G1, welche keine Hinweise auf Reassorierung zeigen. Nur einzelne Punktmutationen konnten in den entsprechenden Gensegmenten nachgewiesen werden. In Hinblick auf die biologische Charakterisierung, konnte in den drei AIV H9N2 der Sublinie G1 vergleichsweise höhere Titer nachgewiesen werden als in einem europäischen AIV H9N2 Wildtypisolat. Insgesamt zeigten die in EHE passagierten Viren höhere Titer als die MDCK-Zell passagierten Viren. Schon nach einer Passage auf Zellkultur konnten einzelne Nukleotidaustausche in den HA, NA und NS kodierenden Gensegmenten nachgewiesen werden, wobei keine dieser Veränderungen einen Einfluss auf konservierte Regionen haben, die die Pathogenese oder Virulenz der Viren beeinflussen. Alle untersuchten H9N2 Viren sind sensitiv gegenüber Amantadin. Schlussfolgerungen Die vorliegende Studie zeigt erstmalig das Vorkommen von HPAIV H5N1 bei Zugvögeln in Bangladesch, welches als Haupteintragsquelle der neuen HPAIV H5N1 in der dortigen Geflügelhaltung angesehen wird. Das AIV H9N2 aus Bangladesch zeigt zwei unabhängige Reassortierungen mit HPAIV des Subtyps H7N3 und H5N1. Hingegen zeigt das ägyptische AIV H9N2 Punktmutationen, welche sehr typisch für diese Viren sind. Die hier untersuchten AIV H9N2 der Sublinie G1 zeigen im Vergleich zu einem europäischen AIV H9N2 eine höhere Replikationsrate. Eine Replikation der Viren konnte in EHE und MDCK-Zellen gezeigt werden, jedoch wird das EHE als das geeignetere System für die Kultivierung von H9N2 Viren betrachtet, da hier in einer kürzeren Zeitspanne mehr Virus produziert werden kann. Des Weiteren konnten in dieser Studie neue Isolate von AIV des Subtyps H9N2 und H5N1mit einem bedeutenden genetischen Aufbau beschrieben werden. Daher wird ein kontinuierliches Monitoring von Feldproben, unverzügliche Meldung von Ausbruchsgeschehen, die molekulare Charakterisierung zur Dokumentation eventuell auftretender neuer Reassortanten sowie Untersuchungen der biologischer Eigenschaften zur Virulenzbestimmung empfohlen.
4

Conception d'inhibiteurs de furine résistants aux peptidases appliquée à la prévention de la prolifération virale de type Influenza A H5N1

Moussette, Philippe January 2014 (has links)
De nos jours, le scénario d’une pandémie à l’échelle mondiale est de plus en plus surveillé par l’Organisation mondiale de la santé en plus d’être exploité par le cinéma et les médias à sensations fortes. La réalité est que plusieurs épidémies ont ravagé la population sur terre à travers les époques telle que ce fut le cas lors de l’éclosion de la peste noire au XIV siècle en Europe et en Asie ou encore le VIH en Afrique encore aujourd’hui. La grande majorité des populations étant concentrée dans des mégalopoles et le transport international étant toujours plus développé et accessible rend une simple épidémie susceptible de se transformer rapidement en pandémie. Plus récemment, l’éclosion de la grippe aviaire H5N1 a décimé d’importantes populations d’oiseau en Asie et certains cas de contamination humaine fatale ont même été répertoriés. Comme les virus mutent rapidement, il serait donc pertinent de connaître leurs mécanismes de prolifération et tenter de les maîtriser afin de les neutraliser avant l’éclosion d’une souche se propageant d’humain à humain. Or, il a été découvert qu’une famille d’endoprotéases à sérines, les proprotéines convertases, sont impliquées dans diverses pathologies dont l’influenza-A H5N1. La furine, première proprotéine convertase à avoir été découverte, semble à l’origine de l’activation de ces virus. Nous avons donc choisi d’entreprendre la conception de divers inhibiteurs de furine dans le but de développer un agent antiviral contre cette pathologie. En ayant une approche impliquant la biologie structurelle et en effectuant une conception rationnelle d’inhibiteurs, nous avons développé des inhibiteurs de furine ayant à la fois une bonne affinité pour l’enzyme ainsi qu’une bonne stabilité en milieu biologique, tout en tentant de comprendre les principes fondamentaux de la liaison avec ces enzymes. Nos résultats ont démontré que diverses techniques peuvent être exploitées afin de concevoir des composés pouvant cibler la furine avec une bonne affinité. Le rationnel derrière la conception de ces composés a été démontrée à l’aide d’outils modernes de visualisation tridimensionnels de biomolécules en mettant en évidence les fonctionnalités importantes des complexes enzymes-substrat et enzyme-inhibiteurs afin de bien vulgariser la biologie structurelle inhérente au projet.
5

Comparing influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) expression in three different baculovirus expression systems

Elliott, Alexandra 05 September 2012 (has links)
In this study, the expression of HA, a key immunogenic protein of influenza viruses, in insect cells was compared using three baculovirus expression strategies: protein over-expression, surface (GP64) display, and capsid (VP39) display. Further, a recombinant virus expressing NA, another immunogenic influenza virus protein, was generated and fused to an HA epitope-tag. Western immunoblot using various antibodies, including those against HA, demonstrated the expression of HA and NA for all recombinant viruses. HA showed stronger expression when fused to the C-terminus of VP39 than the N-terminus, but unlike other expression methods, there was no observable cleavage of HA in VP39-displayed viruses. Cells infected with only over-expressed and surfaced-displayed HA were biologically active, and capable of hemadsorption and hemagglutination of chicken red blood cells. These results suggest that GP64 display or over-expression are the most efficacious modes of HA-expression for use as antigen to detect anti-HA antibodies in poultry. / NSERC, OGS, OMAFRA, CPRC
6

Conception d'inhibiteurs de furine résistants aux peptidases appliquée à la prévention de la prolifération virale de type Influenza A H5N1

Moussette, Philippe January 2014 (has links)
De nos jours, le scénario d’une pandémie à l’échelle mondiale est de plus en plus surveillé par l’Organisation mondiale de la santé en plus d’être exploité par le cinéma et les médias à sensations fortes. La réalité est que plusieurs épidémies ont ravagé la population sur terre à travers les époques telle que ce fut le cas lors de l’éclosion de la peste noire au XIV siècle en Europe et en Asie ou encore le VIH en Afrique encore aujourd’hui. La grande majorité des populations étant concentrée dans des mégalopoles et le transport international étant toujours plus développé et accessible rend une simple épidémie susceptible de se transformer rapidement en pandémie. Plus récemment, l’éclosion de la grippe aviaire H5N1 a décimé d’importantes populations d’oiseau en Asie et certains cas de contamination humaine fatale ont même été répertoriés. Comme les virus mutent rapidement, il serait donc pertinent de connaître leurs mécanismes de prolifération et tenter de les maîtriser afin de les neutraliser avant l’éclosion d’une souche se propageant d’humain à humain. Or, il a été découvert qu’une famille d’endoprotéases à sérines, les proprotéines convertases, sont impliquées dans diverses pathologies dont l’influenza-A H5N1. La furine, première proprotéine convertase à avoir été découverte, semble à l’origine de l’activation de ces virus. Nous avons donc choisi d’entreprendre la conception de divers inhibiteurs de furine dans le but de développer un agent antiviral contre cette pathologie. En ayant une approche impliquant la biologie structurelle et en effectuant une conception rationnelle d’inhibiteurs, nous avons développé des inhibiteurs de furine ayant à la fois une bonne affinité pour l’enzyme ainsi qu’une bonne stabilité en milieu biologique, tout en tentant de comprendre les principes fondamentaux de la liaison avec ces enzymes. Nos résultats ont démontré que diverses techniques peuvent être exploitées afin de concevoir des composés pouvant cibler la furine avec une bonne affinité. Le rationnel derrière la conception de ces composés a été démontrée à l’aide d’outils modernes de visualisation tridimensionnels de biomolécules en mettant en évidence les fonctionnalités importantes des complexes enzymes-substrat et enzyme-inhibiteurs afin de bien vulgariser la biologie structurelle inhérente au projet.
7

Modelo para a previsão de demanda internacional de carne de frango produzida no Brasil

Magagnin, Glênio January 2008 (has links)
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Tecnológico. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de Produção. / Made available in DSpace on 2012-10-24T02:48:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 261561.pdf: 897966 bytes, checksum: d25f3cd89afc8d612e50147f5ab78386 (MD5) / Este trabalho foi elaborado com objetivo de utilizar diferentes metodologias de previsão para verificar se é possível predizer, com maior acurácia que a previsão ingênua, os volumes de exportação de Carne de Frango Inteiro e Carne de Frango Corte do Brasil. Utilizaram-se para predição a Suavização Exponencial, a metodologia ARIMA, Regressão Dinâmica e a combinação destas metodologias. Com a aplicação da metodologia de Regressão Dinâmica, busca-se também determinar variáveis independentes que influenciam, no período avaliado, o volume de venda de Carne de Frango Inteiro e Corte brasileiro para o mercado externo. Com a grande queda nas vendas destes produtos no ano de 2006, em relação aos anos anteriores, a busca de um regressor que possa explicar esta queda também é objetivo importante deste trabalho. Como o evento da ocorrência de casos de contaminação de animais e humanos é frequentemente citado por instituições ligadas ao setor de produção de carnes como sendo a causa das quedas de vendas em 2006, este tema também é avaliado cuidadosamente neste trabalho. Todas as predições geradas com os diferentes métodos de previsão apresentaram resultados mais acurados que a previsão ingênua. Os resultados dos modelos de regressão dinâmica gerados mostram que existe correlação entre a ocorrência de reportagens sobre gripe aviária no jornal americano The New York Times e a queda do volume de exportação brasileiro de carne de frango em 2006.

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