京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・論文博士 / 博士(社会健康医学) / 乙第13005号 / 論社医博第9号 / 新制||社医||9(附属図書館) / 32933 / 京都大学大学院医学研究科社会健康医学系専攻 / (主査)教授 川上 浩司, 教授 玉木 敬二, 教授 小西 靖彦 / 学位規則第4条第2項該当 / Doctor of Public Health / Kyoto University / DFAM

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This study develops a methodology to analyze the interregional impact of Federal grants to provincial governments. The approach is an application of Input-Output analysis. The methodology is empirically implemented to illustrate the extent that employment income generated by Federal grants to a province spills over into other regions. These spillovers are recorded at an individual industry level and at the regional level. Four grant programs are investigated. These are equalization payments, and three conditional grants: health, social welfare, and education. An interregional Input-Output model is developed for sixteen industries in five regions: the Atlantic provinces, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, and the United States. For each region, the government sector is specified by five final demand vectors which correspond to the three expenditure categories of the conditional grant programs, transportationcommunication, and a general category which includes all other provincial government expenditures. This empirical model is based on three sources: the interregional Input-Output table of Canada developed by the Agricultural Economic Research Council, five provincial government expenditure functions estimated for each Canadian region in the model, and the regional government final demand vectors. The results indicate that the gross employment income generated by federal grants is partially contained within the region receiving the ,grant. Ten dollar per capita increases in equalization payments to individual regions generate additional employment income in other regions which varies from $0.63 to $0.03 per capita. In all cases, these per capita spillovers are less than.the per capita employment income generated in the recipient region.For all equalization payments, Ontario received the greatest per~capita spillin followed by Quebec. The smallest per capita spillin accrues to either the Atlantic provinces or the United States. In general, this pattern of spillovers reflects the pattern of employment income.generated in each industry of these regions as equalization payments are increased. However, exceptions are observed. For example, the spillover to the Quebec leather and textile industry which is generated by the equalization payment to Manitoba is larger than the local employment income effect in this industry. A similar pattern of regional per capita spillovers is observed for conditional grants. In general, the largest per capita spillovers are generated by conditional health grants. Overall, the methodology and results indicate how federal grant programs can accommodate interregional spillovers and their consequences for the regional and interindustry distribution of employment income. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

The purpose of the study is to explore the accuracy of the Input-Output model and its derivative, the Occupation-Based model in investigating the impacts of the 2007 economic crisis on the tourism-related industries and the local economy in the Metro Orlando Area, Florida. The 2007-2008 total visitor expenditure change is taken as an initial shock from the economic crisis on the region's tourism-related industries, and the total impacts are measured in terms of industry output (sales), employment and annual occupational wage. The estimation results are compared with the actual data to verify the accuracy of the modeling results. Paired-sample T tests are performed to determine whether the difference between the actual and estimated results are statistically significant or not. The findings suggest that the Input-Output model tends to overestimate the negative effects from the 2007 economic crisis in terms of output and employment, especially on the tourism-related industries. While the estimation results indicate the 2007 economic crisis greatly damaged the local tourism-related industries between 2007 and 2008, the actual data show that most of these industries experienced output and employment growth in that one year period. Moreover, the study findings also indicate that the Occupation-Based model has the tendency of overestimating the annual wage loss, especially for the occupations which take up large employment ratio in an industry. By investigating the local economic activities during the study period, this study made some explorative efforts in explaining such discrepancies. Theoretical and practical implications are then suggested.

Numerous studies in the hospitality field have focused on the importance of the convention industry to the economic well being of the local tourism industry. Because of intense competition between convention centers, destinations are practicing strategies of expanding their convention facilities and related infrastructure. Unfortunately, many of these expansions appear to have been based on feasibility studies that failed to present rigorous reviews and examinations regarding alleged claims of positive impacts and over-optimistic operational pro-forma statements. The main objective of this study is to propose an alternative framework for feasibility studies, which consists of an updated, rigorous methodology to calculate a more comprehensive picture, on what convention centers can deliver on public and private investment. Data from the Orange County Convention Center (OCCC) in Orlando, Florida were used for assessing this proposed framework.

Thesis advisor: Andrew Jorgenson / Global climate change is among the greatest crises facing humanity in the 21st century. Mitigating the impacts of climate change requires a substantial reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. Despite the urgency, climate actions are lacking in many nations. A rich body of cross-national research on human drivers of emissions is devoted to identifying effective leverage points for emission abatement, which primarily focuses on aggregate emission measures such as production-based accounts and consumption-based accounts. However, a nation’s carbon-emitting activities are not monolithic, but can instead be classified into distinct components based on important characteristics such as the supply chain stage to which they belong. These emission components likely have heterogeneous relationships with certain anthropogenic drivers or mitigation measures. Yet, analyses using aggregate emission measures are unable to detect such heterogeneity or inform the unique strategy that might be required to effectively mitigate each emission component. I address this gap using the three empirical chapters of this dissertation. In the first empirical chapter, I propose an analytical framework of Multidimensional Emissions Profile (MEP), which situates nations’ contributions to global greenhouse gas emissions into four distinct components: (1) emissions generated by domestic-oriented supply chain activities; (2) emissions embodied in imports; (3) emissions embodied in exports; and (4) direct emissions of end user activities. I then apply the MEP framework to analyze the relationships between national affluence and the four emission components for 34 high-income nations. I find that as these nations grow wealthier, affluence is increasingly decoupled from direct emissions of end user activities but remains positively associated with the other three emission components in various ways. The findings suggest that emission-suppressing mechanisms associated with growing affluence are effective in mitigating direct end user emissions—typically the smallest component—but not the other three emission components. Therefore, high-income nations should prioritize mitigating emissions generated by supply chain activities outside the end use stage. The second empirical chapter is an examination of how renewable energy deployment is related to these emission components in high-income nations. I find that renewable energy deployment mitigates emissions by domestic-oriented supply chain activities, and with increasing effectiveness over time; yet it remains ineffective in curbing the other three emission components, indicating the existence of structural barriers that prevent the decarbonization effect of renewables from spilling over to these three emission components. These barriers must be overcome in order to achieve the full decarbonization potential of renewable energy deployment. In the third empirical chapter, I investigate the time-varying relationships between domestic income inequality and the four emission components, in order to unpack the multiple pathways linking income inequality to emissions. The results suggest that the relationships change over time, vary across emission components, and differ between measures of income inequality, which indicate variations in the causal pathways, both over time and across emission components. The findings from all three empirical chapters support the validity of the MEP framework. The relationships between greenhouse gas emissions and national affluence, renewable energy deployment, and domestic income inequality are multidimensional: these anthropogenic forces curb some emission components but spur others. Climate policies targeting these anthropogenic forces should optimize their decarbonization benefits while neutralizing the mechanisms through which they drive growth in emissions. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2022. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Sociology.

In this master’s thesis project, future scenarios for year 2050 were constructed for Denmark, Finland and Sweden using an environmentally extended input-output analysis (EEIOA). Scenarios were constructed based on national sustainability targets. A case-specific five stage modeling approach was developed. Approach consists of changes in input-output tables for Electricity grid, Fossil primary energy, Industry sectors, Transport and Allocation of fossil fuel replacements. To represent business-as-usual development, EEIO tables for 2009 were used as reference and baseline scenarios. Constructed scenario models resulted in substantial CO2 emission reductions compared to baseline scenario. In scenario results for Denmark, emissions reduced 98.17 %, in Finland 81.41 % and in Sweden 77.90 %. Furthermore, based on Planetary Boundary framework, greenhouse gas emission carrying capacities were estimated in sectoral level for 2050. Carrying capacities for year 2050 for Denmark, Finland and Sweden were 9909.99 kton CO2-eq, 9049.42 kton CO2-eq and 18691.96 kton CO2-eq, respectively. Compared to radically reduced emissions in scenario results, Denmark and Sweden reached emission levels below estimated national carrying capacities. For Finland, carrying capacity level was exceeded by 2437.77 ktons. EEIOA was found to be an efficient tool for constructing and analyzing explorative long-term scenarios. In addition, it is possible to integrate absolute sustainability thresholds to EEIOA. Scenario results indicate that implementation of the existing national sustainability targets would lead to radical emission reductions in Denmark, Finland and Sweden by 2050 compared to business-as-usual development. Based on the scenario results, transport and industry sectors were identified as the emission hotspot sectors in 2050. EEIOA is a noteworthy method for decision-support for assessing sustainability strategies. With EEIOA, it is possible to allocate and study national sustainability targets on a sectoral level, and that way potentially substantially increase the effectiveness and implementation of defined sustainability targets. However, further research on modeling dynamics, data quality and underlined uncertainties are needed before studied approaches can develop into decision-support tools.

The major objectives of this study are to: (i) improve the understanding of what is meant by economic diversification and economic diversity, (ii) provide a comprehensive conceptual framework for region-specific analysis of the relationship between changing economic structure and economic performance measured in terms of the growth, stability, and distribution of income and employment, and (iii) construct an operational model of a regional economy that can be used to assess the impacts of alternative development strategies. This study attempts to sort out the overlaps, contradictions, and gaps among the different economic and finance theories, and the different definitions and measures of economic diversification and diversity. The subject of economic diversification or diversity is addressed in the context of the question: "What is the relationship between a region’s changing economic structure and performance?" A structural model of a regional economy, an extended input-output model based on a social accounting matrix (SAM), serves as the foundation of the conceptual framework and operational model. The SAM-based input- output model explicitly depicts the functional relationship between economic structure and performance. The region’s demand, production technologies, and trade flows are included as part of economic structure. Economic performance is measured as the growth, stability, and distribution of regional income and employment, by occupation group. The structural model is used to analyze the relationship between economic structure and performance for a given time period, and to analyze changes over time. Growth, stability, and distributional impacts are considered simultaneously. By doing this, potential tradeoffs can be explicitly addressed. To identify the structural sources of growth and stability, the SAM-based input-output model is decomposed at different points in time. By decomposing a SAM-based model it is possible to analyze structural sources of growth and stability in terms of both supply and demand factors. Alternative development strategies can be modelled using this conceptual framework. The operational model quantifies the relationship between: (i) the anticipated growth and stability of exogenous final demands, and (ii) the anticipated growth, stability, and distribution of endogenous income and employment, by occupation group. The operational model focuses attention on the distributional impacts of changing economic structure and performance. The relationship between a region’s social welfare, and the aggregation scheme and accounting stance used in the analysis of economic impacts are explicitly addressed. As such, there are explicit social welfare criteria for comparing and ranking alternative development strategies. The operational model presented in this study is well-suited to many popular input-output application packages. / Ph. D.

Yes / This paper explores the issue of fairness in global supply chains. Taking the Western European clothing supply chain as a case study, we demonstrate how applying a normative indicator in Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA) can contribute academic and practical insights into debates on fairness. To do so, we develop a new indicator that addresses some of the limitations of the living wage for SLCA. We extend the standard form of living wage available for developing countries to include income tax and social security contributions. We call this extension 'living labour compensation'. Using publically available data, we estimate net living wages, gross living wages, and living labour compensation rates for Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) in 2005. We then integrate living labour compensation rates into an input-output framework, which we use to compare living labour compensation and actual labour compensation in the BRIC countries in the Western European clothing supply chain in 2005. We find that in 2005, actual labour compensation in the Western European clothing supply chain was around half of the living labour compensation level, with the greatest difference being in the Agricultural sector. Therefore, we argue that BRIC pay in the Western European clothing supply chain was unfair. Furthermore, our living labour compensation estimates for BRIC in 2005 are ~ 35% higher than standard living wage estimates. Indeed, adding income taxes and employee social security contributions alone increases the living wage by ~ 10%. Consequently, we argue there is a risk that investigations based on living wages are not using a representative measure of fairness from the employee's perspective and are substantially underestimating the cost of living wages from an employer's perspective. Finally, we discuss implications for retailers and living wage advocacy groups. Living labour compensation extends the living wage, maintaining its strengths and addressing key weaknesses. It can be estimated for multiple countries from publically available data and can be applied in an input-output framework. Therefore, it is able to provide a normative assessment of fairness in complex global supply chains. Applying it to the Western European clothing supply chain, we were able to show that pay for workers in Brazil, Russia, India, and China is unfair, and draw substantive conclusions for practice.

Yes / Rising demand for cheaper textiles and clothing in Western Europe is well documented, as are changes in the Textiles and Clothing industry's globalised production structure. We apply a sub-systems global multi-regional input–output accounting framework to examine the sustainability implications of meeting Western European demand for textiles and clothing goods between 1995 and 2009. Our framework estimates environmental and socio-economic impacts of consumption in a consistent manner and shows where these occur both geographically and in the value chain. The results demonstrate that Western European textiles and clothing consumption remains dependent on low-cost labour from Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC), principally in the Textiles and Clothing and Agricultural sectors. Conversely, we show that the wage rate for BRIC workers in the global value chains serving Western European textiles and clothing consumption has risen over time but remains low relative to the wage rate paid to Western European workers. Likewise, we find that profits are increasingly generated within BRIC and that they are now at comparable levels to those generated in Western Europe. We find a slight overall decrease in the amount of carbon emitted in the production of textiles and clothing goods for Western Europe between 1995 and 2009. However, the trend is not linear and the importance of different underlying drivers varies over the timeseries. We conclude by discussing the implications of these results for a more sustainable future for Western European textiles and clothing consumption.