Traditional theories of industrial restructuring assign the most explanatory weight of the structural change phenomenon to increasing pressures via globalization and falling trade barriers. This thesis offers a new model of thinking about industrial restructuring that includes multiple stressors. The thesis focuses on three main drivers of structural change: market pressures, environmental regulation and changes in land use and land pricing, using two case studies of leather and footwear industrial clusters in Mexico, located in the cities of León and Guadalajara. Evidence of multiple drivers of structural change is found in the dissertation. Furthermore, responses to restructuring drivers in León and Guadalajara are found to be substantially different. Firms in the leather and footwear cluster in León have implemented countervailing strategies such as price competition, government lobbying, and more recently, investment in socio-economic research (competitiveness) projects. However, firms in the leather and footwear cluster in Guadalajara focused on a specific, high-end target market. At the larger, urban scale, footwear and its allied industries in the city of León resisted change and have tried to remain in operation while the city of Guadalajara has focused on a diversification strategy, attracting new (arguably more technically advanced) industries. This thesis offers empirical and theoretical advances. Empirically, it applies a firm demographics approach to the study of industrial clusters under multiple stressors. This approach has not been previously used on Mexican data. Theoretically, it demonstrates that future analyses of industrial complexes’ structural change can be strengthened through the use of an integrated assessment framework investigating the effect of multiple stressors (market forces, land pricing, technical change, environmental regulations, and consumer preferences) on industrial restructuring. / Science, Faculty of / Resources, Environment and Sustainability (IRES), Institute for / Graduate

Integrated Assessment Models (IAM)s play a key role in climate policy research; however, many IAMs are limited by their treatment of technological change. This is a particularly vexing limitation because technological change significantly affects the optimal carbon policy. We propose a means of incorporating technological change within the Dynamic Integrated Model of the Climate and Economy (DICE). We modify DICE to allow it to adjust the cost of CO2 abatement based on the demand for solar photovoltaic generating capacity. We find that deployment of solar photovoltaics (PV) is highly sensitive to returns to scale and the grid integration costs associated with PV intermittency. At low returns to scale integration costs cause PV to be deployed in steps, reducing the benefit of scale effects; at higher returns to scale PV is deployed smoothly but is arrested integration costs become significant; and when returns are high PV becomes so inexpensive that it’s deployed widely in spite of integration costs. The implication of this behavior is that the optimal allocation of research and development resources depends on returns to scale in the solar market: if returns to scale are low, R&D should focus on PV itself, while if they’re high, R&D should focus on reducing integration costs.

Abstract In Paper [I], I develop the FOR-DICE model to analyze optimal global forest carbon management. The FOR-DICE is a simple framework for assessing the role of the boreal, tropical, and temperate forests as both a source of renewable energy and a resource to sequester and store carbon. I find that forests play an important role in reducing global emissions, especially under ambitious climate targets. At the global level, efforts should focus on increasing the stock of forest biomass rather than increasing the use of the forest for bioenergy production. The results also highlight the important role of reducing tropical deforestation to reduce climate change. In Paper [II], I develop the FRICE to investigate the role of two key efforts to increase the stock of forest biomass, namely, afforestation and avoided deforestation. FRICE is a multi-regional integrated assessment model that captures the dynamics of forest carbon sequestration in a transparent way and allows me to investigate the allocation of these actions across space and time. I find that global climate policy can benefit considerably from afforestation and avoided deforestation in tropical regions, and in particular in Africa. Avoided deforestation is particularly effective in the short run while afforestation provides the largest emissions reductions in the medium run. This paper also highlights the importance of not solely relying on avoided deforestation as its capacity to reduce emissions is more limited than afforestation, especially under more stringent temperature targets. In Paper [III], we investigate how uncertainties linked to the forest affect the optimal climate policy. We incorporate parameter uncertainty on the intrinsic growth rate and climate effects on the forest by using the state-contingent approach. Our results show that forest uncertainty matters. We find that the importance of including forest in climate policy increases when the forest is subject to uncertainty. This occurs because optimal forest response allows us to reduce the costs associated with uncertainty. In Paper [IV], we explore the implications of asymmetries in climate policy arising from not recognizing forest carbon emissions and sequestration in the decision-making process. We show that not fully including carbon values associated with the forest will have large effects on different forest controls and lead to an increase in emissions, higher carbon prices, and lower welfare.  We further find, by investigating the relative importance of forest emissions compared to sequestration, that recognizing forest emissions from bioenergy and deforestation is especially important for climate policy.

We analyze the policy implications of aversion to Knightian uncertainty (ambiguity) about the possibility of tipping points. We demonstrate two channels through which uncertainty aversion affects optimal policy in the general setting. The first channel relates to the policy's effect on the probability of tipping, and the second channel to its differential impact in the pre- and post-tipping regimes. We then extend a recursive dynamic model of climate policy and tipping points to include uncertainty aversion. Numerically, aversion to Knightian uncertainty in the face of an ambiguous tipping point increases the optimal tax on carbon dioxide emissions, but only by a small amount.

<p>Stochastic information, to be understood as &quot;information gained by the application of stochastic methods&quot;, is proposed as a tool in the assessment of changes in climate.</p> <p>This thesis aims at demonstrating that stochastic information can improve the consideration and reduction of uncertainty in the assessment of changes in climate. The thesis consists of three parts. In part one, an indicator is developed that allows the determination of the proximity to a critical threshold. In part two, the tolerable windows approach (TWA) is extended to a probabilistic TWA. In part three, an integrated assessment of changes in flooding probability due to climate change is conducted within the TWA.</p> <p>The thermohaline circulation (THC) is a circulation system in the North Atlantic, where the circulation may break down in a saddle-node bifurcation under the influence of climate change. Due to uncertainty in ocean models, it is currently very difficult to determine the distance of the THC to the bifurcation point. We propose a new indicator to determine the system's proximity to the bifurcation point by considering the THC as a stochastic system and using the information contained in the fluctuations of the circulation around the mean state. As the system is moved closer to the bifurcation point, the power spectrum of the overturning becomes &quot;redder&quot;, i.e. more energy is contained in the low frequencies. Since the spectral changes are a generic property of the saddle-node bifurcation, the method is not limited to the THC, but it could also be applicable to other systems, e.g. transitions in ecosystems. </p> <p>In part two, a probabilistic extension to the tolerable windows approach (TWA) is developed. In the TWA, the aim is to determine the complete set of emission strategies that are compatible with so-called guardrails. Guardrails are limits to impacts of climate change or to climate change itself. Therefore, the TWA determines the &quot;maneuvering space&quot; humanity has, if certain impacts of climate change are to be avoided. Due to uncertainty it is not possible to definitely exclude the impacts of climate change considered, but there will always be a certain probability of violating a guardrail. Therefore the TWA is extended to a probabilistic TWA that is able to consider &quot;probabilistic uncertainty&quot;, i.e. uncertainty that can be expressed as a probability distribution or uncertainty that arises through natural variability.</p> <p>As a first application, temperature guardrails are imposed, and the dependence of emission reduction strategies on probability distributions for climate sensitivities is investigated. The analysis suggests that it will be difficult to observe a temperature guardrail of 2&deg;C with high probabilities of actually meeting the target.</p> <p>In part three, an integrated assessment of changes in flooding probability due to climate change is conducted. A simple hydrological model is presented, as well as a downscaling scheme that allows the reconstruction of the spatio-temporal natural variability of temperature and precipitation. These are used to determine a probabilistic climate impact response function (CIRF), a function that allows the assessment of changes in probability of certain flood events under conditions of a changed climate. </p> <p>The assessment of changes in flooding probability is conducted in 83 major river basins. Not all floods can be considered: Events that either happen very fast, or affect only a very small area can not be considered, but large-scale flooding due to strong longer-lasting precipitation events can be considered. Finally, the probabilistic CIRFs obtained are used to determine emission corridors, where the guardrail is a limit to the fraction of world population that is affected by a predefined shift in probability of the 50-year flood event. This latter analysis has two main results. The uncertainty about regional changes in climate is still very high, and even small amounts of further climate change may lead to large changes in flooding probability in some river systems.</p> / <p>Stochastische Information, zu verstehen als &quot;Information, die durch die Anwendung stochastischer Methoden gewonnen wird&quot;, wird als Hilfsmittel in der Bewertung von Klima&auml;nderungen vorgeschlagen.</p> <p>Das Ziel dieser Doktorarbeit ist es, zu zeigen, dass stochastische Information die Ber&uuml;cksichtigung und Reduktion von Unsicherheit in der Bewertung des Klimawandels verbessern kann. Die Arbeit besteht aus drei Teilen. Im ersten Teil wird ein Indikator entwickelt, der die Bestimmung des Abstandes zu einem kritischen Grenzwert ermöglicht. Im zweiten Teil wird der &quot;tolerable windows approach&quot; (TWA) zu einem probabilistischen TWA erweitert. Im dritten Teil wird eine integrierte Absch&auml;tzung der Ver&auml;nderung von &Uuml;berflutungswahrscheinlichkeiten im Rahmen des TWA durchgeführt.</p> <p>Die thermohaline Zirkulation (THC) ist ein Zirkulationssystem im Nordatlantik, in dem die Zirkulation unter Einfluss des Klimawandels in einer Sattel-Knoten Bifurkation abreißen kann. Durch Unsicherheit in Ozeanmodellen ist es gegenw&auml;rtig kaum m&ouml;glich, den Abstand des Systems zum Bifurkationspunkt zu bestimmen. Wir schlagen einen neuen Indikator vor, der es erm&ouml;glicht, die N&auml;he des Systems zum Bifurkationspunkt zu bestimmen. Dabei wird die THC als stochastisches System angenommen, und die Informationen, die in den Fluktuationen der Zirkulation um den mittleren Zustand enthalten sind, ausgenutzt. Wenn das System auf den Bifurkationspunkt zubewegt wird, wird das Leistungsspektrum &quot;roter&quot;, d.h. die tiefen Frequenzen enthalten mehr Energie. Da diese spektralen Ver&auml;nderungen eine allgemeine Eigenschaft der Sattel-Knoten Bifurkation sind, ist die Methode nicht auf die THC beschränkt, sondern weitere Anwendungen k&ouml;nnten m&ouml;glich sein, beispielsweise zur Erkennung von &Uuml;berg&auml;ngen in &Ouml;kosystemen.</p> <p>Im zweiten Teil wird eine probabilistische Erweiterung des &quot;tolerable windows approach&quot; (TWA) entwickelt. Das Ziel des TWA ist die Bestimmung der Menge der Emissionsreduktionsstrategien, die mit sogenannten Leitplanken kompatibel sind. Diese Leitplanken sind Begrenzungen der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels, oder des Klimawandels selber. Der TWA bestimmt daher den Spielraum, den die Menschheit hat, wenn bestimmte Auswirkungen des Klimawandels vermieden werden sollen. Durch den Einfluss von Unsicherheit ist es aber nicht m&ouml;glich, die betrachteten Auswirkungen des Klimawandels mit Sicherheit auszuschlie&szlig;en, sondern es existiert eine gewisse Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Leitplanke verletzt wird. Der TWA wird daher zu einem probabilistischen TWA weiterentwickelt, der es erm&ouml;glicht, &quot;probabilistische Unsicherheit&quot;, also Unsicherheit, die durch eine Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung ausgedr&uuml;ckt werden kann, oder die durch den Einfluß von nat&uuml;rlicher Variabilit&auml;t entsteht, zu ber&uuml;cksichtigen.</p> <p>Als erste Anwendung werden Temperaturleitplanken betrachtet, und die Abh&auml;ngigkeit der Emissionsreduktionsstrategien von Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen über die Klimasensitivit&auml;t wird bestimmt. Die Analyse ergibt, dass die Einhaltung einer Temperaturleitplanke von 2&deg;C sehr schwierig wird, wenn man hohe Wahrscheinlichkeiten des Einhaltens der Leitplanke fordert.</p> <p>Im dritten Teil wird eine integrierte Absch&auml;tzung der &Auml;nderungen von &Uuml;berflutungswahrscheinlichkeiten unter Einfluss des Klimawandels durchgef&uuml;hrt. Ein einfaches hydrologisches Modell wird vorgestellt, sowie ein Skalierungsansatz, der es erm&ouml;glicht, die raum-zeitliche nat&uuml;rliche Variabilit&auml;t von Temperatur und Niederschlag zu rekonstruieren. Diese werden zur Bestimmung einer probabilistischen Klimawirkungsfunktion genutzt, einer Funktion, die es erlaubt, die Ver&auml;nderungen der Wahrscheinlichkeit bestimmter &Uuml;berflutungsereignisse unter Einfluss von Klima&auml;nderungen abzusch&auml;tzen.</p> <p>Diese Untersuchung der Ver&auml;nderung von &Uuml;berflutungswahrscheinlichkeiten wird in 83 großen Flusseinzugsgebieten durchgef&uuml;hrt. Nicht alle Klassen von &Uuml;berflutungen k&ouml;nnen dabei ber&uuml;cksichtigt werden: Ereignisse, die entweder sehr schnell vonstatten gehen, oder die nur ein kleines Gebiet betreffen, k&ouml;nnen nicht ber&uuml;cksichtigt werden, aber großfl&auml;chige &Uuml;berflutungen, die durch starke, langanhaltende Regenf&auml;lle hervorgerufen werden, k&ouml;nnen ber&uuml;cksichtigt werden. Zuguterletzt werden die bestimmten Klimawirkungsfunktion dazu genutzt, Emissionskorridore zu bestimmen, bei denen die Leitplanken Begrenzungen des Bev&ouml;lkerungsanteils, der von einer bestimmten Ver&auml;nderung der Wahrscheinlichkeit eines 50-Jahres-Flutereignisses betroffen ist, sind. Letztere Untersuchung hat zwei Hauptergebnisse. Die Unsicherheit von regionalen Klima&auml;nderungen ist immer noch sehr hoch, und au&szlig;erdem k&ouml;nnen in einigen Flusssystemen schon kleine Klima&auml;nderungen zu gro&szlig;en &Auml;nderungen der &Uuml;berflutungswahrscheinlichkeit f&uuml;hren.</p>

National access to modern energy is deemed by Malawi government as the driving force to attain social-economic development. To achieve this, optimal decisions in energy planning and investment are considered important. This study evaluates potential pathways that will inform better policy design and investment option in energy sector. The Integrated Assessment Modelling method has been used to integrate social, economic and environmental variables that affect energy systems, and further analyses potential energy pathways in relation to these earth systems. The Long-range Alternatives Energy Planning system (LEAP) has been used to run a continuous time series from 2008 to 2063 of the three energy policy pathways (scenarios) using: (1) the current Malawi National Policy and Strategies on Energy (MwNEP) (2) the United Nation’s Sustainable Energy for All strategy (SE4ALL) and (3) Business as Usual (REF) scenario. The analysis indicates an exponential growth in energy demand for both MwNEP and SE4ALL scenario with a slight higher demand in SEAll over MwNEP Scenario. In both cases Biomass remains an important energy source beyond the 2030. Thus, the SDG 7 will not be achieved by 2030. Similarly, energy demand trends in MwNEP and SE4ALL scenarios continue to grow beyond available energy stocks and generation capacity which will lead to a shortfall in energy supply. Environmentally, the GHGs emissions in MwNEP are higher than the SE4ALL scenario. This is reflected in the pro-environment policy objective pursued by SE4ALL scenario. In the medium-term LEAP analysis favours advancement of alternative renewable energies at household level like solar photovoltaic (PV) for lighting and sustainable biomass energy for cooking. In the long-run, scaling up the adoption of renewable energy in form of solar, wind and hydro-electricity to meet the energy gap. At the same time, designing and adhering to implementation of sustainable energy plans that cuts energy sources from fossil fuels and allow easy accesses to affordable renewable energies will result in a success of Malawi’s energy system.

La thèse propose une approche originale pour évaluer les évolutions à moyen terme des équilibres entre usages et ressources en eau à l’échelle de bassins versants. Un cadre de modélisation intégrant les dynamiques hydro-climatiques et des activités humaines ainsi que les liens entre demandes et ressources en eau a été développé et appliqué sur deux bassins d’échelles différentes et aux usages de l’eau contrastés : l’Hérault (2500 km2, France) et l’Ebre (85000 km2, Espagne). Les écoulements naturels ont été simulés avec un modèle hydrologique conceptuel et un modèle de gestion de barrage piloté par les demandes associées et les contraintes de gestion a été implémenté. Les demandes en eau municipal, industrielle et d'irrigation ont été estimées à partir de données socio-economiques, agronomiques et climatiques. Des débits environnementaux seuils, en-dessous desquels les prélèvements sont limités, ont été pris en compte. La chaîne de modélisation a été calée et validée sous les conditions anthropiques et hydro-climatiques non-stationnaires de 40 années passées, avant d’être appliquée sous quatre combinaisons de scénarios de changements climatiques et d’usages de l’eau, permettant ainsi de différencier les impacts climatiques et anthropiques. Des simulations climatiques de l’exercice CMIP5 ont été utilisées pour générer 18 scénarios climatiques à l’horizon 2050, et un scénario tendanciel des usages de l’eau a été proposé sur la base de tendances socio-écononomiques locales. La disponibilité en eau a été comparée à la demande à travers des indicateurs de fréquence et d’intensité de satisfaction. L'impact des scénarios climatiques sur la disponibilité et la demande en eau pourrait remettre en question les allocations et débits environnementaux envisagés pour les décennies à venir. Les limitations de prélèvements pourraient devenir pus fréquentes, et la pression anthropique sur les milieux aquatiques pourrait s'intensifier. Pour évaluer le potentiel d’adaptation aux changements climatiques, une analyse de sensibilité des indicateurs aux principaux facteurs d’évolution de la demande et de la gestion de barrages a été réalisée. L’efficacité et la robustesse de mesures individuelles varient entre les bassins et selon les nœuds de demande. Un scénario d’adaptation combinant différentes mesures a ensuite été testé. Ce scénario pourrait réduire sensiblement le stress hydriquel, cependant sa robustesse vis-à-vis des incertitudes climatiques pourrait être insuffisante. Afin d'atteindre un équilibre durable entre usages et ressources en eau et de réduire la vulnerabilité des usages de l'eau, une complémentarité doit être trouvée entre des études quantitatives à l'échelle de bassins versants, comme celle menée dans cette thèse, et des études locales de la vulnérablité socio-économique et des capacités d'adaptation. / This thesis proposes an original approach to assess multi-decadal changes in the balance between water use and availability in managed river basins. A modeling framework integrating human and hydro-climatic dynamics and accounting for linkages between resource and demand was developed and applied in two basins of different scales and with contrasted water uses: the Herault (2500 km2, France) and the Ebro (85000 km2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model, and a demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Urban, industrial and agricultural water demands were estimated from socio-economic and agronomic and climatic drivers. Environmental flows were accounted for by defining streamflow thresholds under which water withdrawals were strictly limited. This framework was successfully calibrated and validated under non-stationary human and hydro-climatic conditions over a past period of 40 years before being applied under four combinations of climatic and water use scenarios to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Climate simulations from the CMIP5 exercise were used to generate 18 climate scenarios at the 2050 horizon and a trend water use scenario was built based on demographic and local socio-economic trends by the mid-21textsuperscript{st}century. Indicators comparing water supply to demand were computed. The impact of the tested climate projections on both water availability and demand could question the water allocations and environmental requirements currently planned for the coming decades. Water shortages for human use could become more frequent and intense, and the pressure on water resources and aquatic ecosystems could intensify. To assess the efficiency of potential adaptation measures under climate change scenarios, the sensitivity of water stress to variations in the main drivers of water demand and dam management was tested. The effectiveness and robustness of individual measures varied between the basins and within each basin. Finally an adaptation scenario combining different measures was tested in both basins, using the integrative modeling framework. This scenario led to encouraging results regarding the decrease of water stress. However, the adaptation strategies were shown to be insufficiently robust to climate change uncertainties. To achieve a sustainable balance between water availability and demand and reduce the vulnerability of water uses to climate change, a complementarity needs to be found between basin-scale studies of the water balance, such as the ones conducted in this thesis, and local assessments of vulnerability and adaptive capacity.

The loss of ecosystem resilience and rangeland (often referred to as veld in South Africa) productivity is a major problem in the semi-arid Savanna environments of southern Africa. The over-utilization of rangelands in the Molopo region of the North- West Province in South Africa has resulted in profound habitat transformations. A common regional indicator of rangeland degradation is the imbalance in the grasswoody ratio, characterized by a loss of grass cover and density with increased shrub or tree density. This can result in major reductions of rangeland productivity for the grazing animal, forcing land users to apply active or passive restoration actions to improve rangeland condition, control the thickening of woody species (bush thickening), mitigate economic losses and restoring the aesthetical value of the Savanna environment for ecotourism and game hunting aspects. This study formed part of the multinational EU-funded PRACTICE project (“Prevention and restoration actions to combat desertification: an integrated assessment”). The first aim of the study was to evaluate locally applied restoration actions using a participatory approach, followed by interviews with certain stakeholders that formed part of a multi-stakeholder platform (MSP) related to the livestock and game farming community in the Molopo. Participants of the MSP ranked indicators according to their relative importance regarding the restoration actions on an individual basis. The individual ranking results were combined with quantitative bio-physical and qualitative socio-economic measurements for each indicator in a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), whereby the alternative actions were ranked according to their relevancy and performance. The results were then shared with members of the MSP in order to stimulate discussion among the members and contribute to the social learning of the project outcome. The overall positive response and acceptance of results by members of the MSP changed the perceptions and objectives of the land users regarding rangeland management. This type of participatory assessment was therefore found to be very promising in helping to identify more sustainable actions to mitigate rangeland degradation in the Molopo Savanna region. There is, however, still an urgent need to create legal policy frameworks and institution-building, to support local-level implementation in all socio-ecological and economic settings, particularly in communal areas. The second aim was to evaluate the effect of two chemical bush control actions (chemical hand- (HC) and aeroplane control (AC)) as well as rotational grazing (RGM) on the Molopo Savanna vegetation. Results show that rangeland productivity, i.e. forage production and grazing capacity, was found to be negatively related to the woody phytomass in the savanna system studied. Bush thickening influenced grass species composition which was commonly associated with a decline in the abundance of sub-climax to climax grasses, respectively. All three actions (HC, AC & RGM) significantly reduced the woody phytomass and increased forage production and grazing capacity. Although AC resulted in the highest reduction of woody phytomass, the highest forage production and grazing capacity was found under RGM. The second highest grazing capacity was found in HC sites, which was due to a high abundance of perennial, palatable climax grass species. Results from this study also show that the patterns and compositions of grass species, grass functional groups (GFGs) and woody densities indicated by RGM and chemical HC, best resemble a productive and stable savanna system that provides important key resources to support both grazing and browsing herbivores. / MSc (Environmental Sciences), North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2014

Dans plusieurs territoires agricoles, les débits des rivières pendant l’étiage sont régulièrement inférieurs aux normes, signant des situations de « déséquilibre structurel » entre offre et demande en eau. Les différents acteurs du territoire peinent à s’accorder sur les changements à engager, d’autant que les impacts de ces changements sont incertains. Que valent alors les différentes propositions avancées pour résoudre le déséquilibre hydrique ? Je réponds à cette question en concevant une démarche d’évaluation multicritère multi-acteur que je déploie sur le territoire de l’Aveyron aval – Lère (Sud-Ouest de la France). Quatre scénarios - trois visant à réduire l’irrigation et un à améliorer le stockage de l’eau - sont comparés au travers de simulations informatiques (modèle MAELIA) et de jugements d’acteurs (outil KERBABEL DST). Les scénarios se différencient en termes d’intensité et de diversité des impacts simulés, d’intérêts ou préjudices perçus par les acteurs, et de capacité à produire du consensus ou de la discorde. Les connaissances développées à l’issue de cette thèse sont d’ordres agronomique, socioéconomique et méthodologique. / In many agricultural landscapes, river flows during the low-water period regularly fall below regulatory thresholds, indicating situations of structural imbalance between the water offer and demand. The various stakeholders disagree on the changes to implement, especially since the impacts of these changes are uncertain. In this context, how valuable are the different proposals to solve the water imbalance? I answer this question by designing a multi-actor multicriteria evaluation method, which I adapt to the downstream Aveyron watershed (South-Western France). Four scenarios – three aiming to reduce irrigation withdrawals and one improving water storage – are compared based on computer simulations (MAELIA model) and stakeholder judgments (KERBABEL deliberation support tool). Scenarios differ from each other in terms of magnitude and diversity of the simulated impacts, perceived advantages and weaknesses, and capability to generate consensus or discord among stakeholders. Agronomic, socioeconomic and methodological knowledge is derived from this thesis.

Em geral, a relação entre fatores ambientais e a saúde é de natureza sistêmica, envolvendo várias áreas do conhecimento. Um dos desafios dentro dessa questão são as abordagens integradas de avaliação em saúde ambiental, que reúnem dimensões técnico-operacionais, socioeconômicas e políticas, ultrapassando as avaliações que consideram apenas questões de exposição e efeito. O objetivo da presente tese foi avaliar, com base em abordagem de avaliação integrada em saúde ambiental, o impacto à saúde decorrente da implantação de intervenções em saneamento, em populações de comunidades localizadas em unidades de conservação de uso sustentável na região do Médio Juruá, no estado do Amazonas. O processo de avaliação foi amparado na abordagem metodológica Avaliação Integrada de Impacto em Saúde Ambiental (AIISA) e utilizou como principal instrumento conceitual o modelo de organização de indicadores Força Motriz-Pressão-Situação-Exposição-Efeitos-Ações (FPSEEA), aplicado em dois estágios bem definidos: i) Estágio Antes: período anterior à implantação das intervenções em saneamento nas comunidades estudadas e ii) Estágio Depois: período de pelo menos seis meses após a finalização da implantação e funcionamento das intervenções. Os resultados obtidos no componente de efeito a partir da comparação entre os dois estágios, que refletem os efeitos diretos na saúde, apontaram uma redução média de 65% da morbidade por diarreia, 22% da morbidade por parasitoses intestinais e aumento da qualidade de vida da população, representado por uma redução média de 63% de insatisfação com a comunidade e aumento de 100% da percepção da relação entre o aumento da qualidade de vida e o saneamento. Esses resultados indicam que houve impactos positivos à saúde da população decorrentes das intervenções em saneamento. O modelo FPSEEA utilizado trouxe informações que permitiram uma análise ampliada e em cadeia dos impactos da variação de cenários para exprimir esses efeitos positivos na saúde. Assim, foi possível realizar uma avaliação integrada do impacto de ações em saneamento na redução de doenças e no aumento da qualidade de vida das populações estudadas. Nesse processo avaliativo foi possível detectar de maneira consistente, dentro do contexto da área de estudo, que além dos efeitos na saúde, aspectos importantes na cadeia causal contribuíram de forma integrada para a expressão desse efeito. Em relação ao modelo FPSEEA aplicado no contexto da tese, concluímos que os pressupostos utilizados em sua concepção permitem que ajustes sejam feitos no modelo de acordo com o contexto para o qual o seu uso foi proposto, sendo possível validar e ajustar os elementos e indicadores do modelo proposto para o seu uso em outras propostas de avaliações integradas com enfoque nos impactos à saúde decorrentes de ações em saneamento. Dessa maneira, reforçamos que, mesmo diante da escala local dos resultados, o processo de avaliação contribuiu para auxiliar o planejamento de ações no campo do saneamento, viabilizando novos modelos de intervenções, redefinição de prioridades e redirecionamento de ações relacionadas ao saneamento e saúde, buscando a redução da pobreza, universalização do acesso ao saneamento e garantia dos direitos essenciais do cidadão com equidade no meio rural brasileiro. / In general , the relationship between environmental factors and health is systemic in nature , involving various fields of knowledge . One of the challenges of this issue involves integrated environmental health impact assessment approaches, which combine technical and operational, socio-economic and political dimensions, surpassing aproaches that consider only unicausualities of exposure and effect . The aim of this thesis was to evaluate , based on an integrated environmental health impact assessment , the health impact resulting from the implementation of water supply and sanitation interventions in populations of communities located in sustainable use forest reserves in the Middle Juruá river in state of Amazonas . The evaluation process was supported in methodological approach Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment (IEHIA) and used as the main conceptual framework a model for organizing indicators Driving Force - Pressure - Situation - Exposure - Effect - Action (DPSEEA) , applied in two well defined stages : i ) Before Stage : prior to the implementation of interventions in water supply and sanitation in the studied communities and ii ) After Stage : period of at least six months after implementaion and operation of the interventions . The results regarting the Effect component from the comparison between the two stages, which reflects directly the effect on health, , showed an average reduction of 65% in morbidity from diarrhea , 22 % of morbidity from intestinal parasites and an increased quality of life , represented by a mean reduction of 63 % of dissatisfaction with the community and 100% increase in the perception of the relationship between the increase in quality of life and sanitation. These results indicate that there were positive health impacts due to due the implemented interventions. The model DPSEEA used in this study brought information which enabeled the development of a broad and integrated analysis of the impacts of the variation in cenarios to express these positive health effects. Thus, it was possible to perform an integrated assessment of the impact of waster supply and sanitation interventions to reduce disease and increase the quality of life of the studied population. This evaluation process enabeled the cosistent detection, within the context of the study area, that in addition to the health effects , important aspects of the causal chain contributed in a integrated way to the expression of this effect . Regarding the DPSEEA model applied in the context of the thesis, we conclude that the assumptions used in its design allow adjustments to be made in accordance to the context for which the model is supposed to be used. This enables the validation and ajustment of the elements and indicators of the proposed model to allow its use in other Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment proposals which focus on health impacts of water supply and sanitation interventions. Thus, we reinforce that even with the local scale carcateristicas of our results, the evaluation process contributed to assist the planning of actions in the field of water supply and sanitation , enabling new models of interventions , redefining priorities and redirecting actions related to water supply and sanitation to increase health, reduce poverty, and ensure essential rights to citizens of rural areas of Brazil with equity.