La seguente Tesi di Dottorato si articola in cinque saggi che esaminano alcuni importanti aspetti legati all'energia in Africa subsahariana, e in particolare all'interazione tra lo sviluppo socio-economico e le sue implicazioni per l'ambiente a livello regionale e globale. I saggi sono introdotti da un capitolo di avvicinamento generale ai temi trattati. Questo capitolo prepara il lettore offrendo un riassunto delle principali sfide legate all'energia nel contesto subsariano e formulando le domande di ricerca e gli strumenti sui quali si basa la tesi stessa. Le principali implicazioni di ciascuno dei saggi, sia per la ricerca che per i decisori politici, vengono poi presentate in un capitolo di discussione finale. Il primo saggio esamina la problematica dell’accesso all'energia, e in particolare all'elettricità. Viene illustrato il ruolo dei dati satellitari e dell'analisi statistica dei dati geospaziali nel migliorare la comprensione della situazione dell'accesso all'elettricità in Africa subsahariana. Il saggio include un'analisi delle disuguaglianze che caratterizzano la qualità dell'accesso all'elettricità nella regione. Il risultato principale è che, dopo decenni, la disuguaglianza nell'accesso all'energia sta iniziando a diminuire. Essa rimane però prominente, in particolare per quanto riguarda la quantità di energia consumata. Viene stimato che gli sforzi di elettrificazione tra il 2020 e il 2030 debbano triplicare il loro passo per raggiungere l'obiettivo di sviluppo sostenibile SDG 7.1.1. Il secondo saggio consiste di una piattaforma di valutazione della domanda energetica bottom-up spazialmente esplicita per stimare il fabbisogno energetico tra le comunità in cui l'accesso all'elettricità è attualmente carente, come identificato con la metodologia introdotta nel primo saggio. La valutazione non si limita al fabbisogno energetico residenziale, ma include un resoconto dettagliato, basato sugli usi finali, del fabbisogno energetico di scuole, strutture sanitarie, pompaggio dell'acqua per l'irrigazione, lavorazione delle colture e microimprese, i principali motori dello sviluppo rurale. Viene condotto uno studio nazionale per il Kenya per dimostrare l'importanza di considerare molteplici fonti di domanda oltre al residenziale quando l'obiettivo è sviluppare una strategia di elettrificazione che supperisca veramente alla povertà energetica. Si dimostra poi che esiste un notevole potenziale di crescita della produttività e della redditività rurale grazie all'apporto di energia elettrica. In molte aree, questi profitti locali potrebbero ripagare gli investimenti nelle infrastrutture di elettrificazione in pochi anni. Il terzo saggio analizza un aspetto specifico dell'interazione tra pianificazione dell'accesso all'elettricità, domanda di energia residenziale e adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici. Vengono combinati dati e scenari climatici, satellitari e demografici per produrre una stima globale spazialmente esplicita della domanda di circolazione e condizionamento dell’aria non soddisfatta a causa della mancanza di accesso all'elettricità. Sulla base di modelli integrati di elettrificazione climatica-energetica e geospaziale, risulta che in Africa sub-sahariana, l'hotspot globale della povertà energetica, tenere conto del fabbisogno di circolazione e condizionamento dell’aria locale stimato (in aggiunta agli obiettivi di consumo residenziale di base) determini una riduzione sostanziale della quota di sistemi standalone come l'opzione di elettrificazione meno costosa entro il 2030, e un importante aumento della capacità di generazione di elettricità e dei requisiti di investimento. Tali risultati suggeriscono la necessità di una maggiore considerazione delle esigenze di adattamento climatico nella pianificazione dei sistemi energetici dei paesi in via di sviluppo e nella valutazione del trade-off tra l'espansione della rete elettrica centrale e sistemi decentralizzati per raggiungere un’elettrificazione universale. La pianificazione dell'elettrificazione deve essere tecnicamente efficiente, ma deve anche considerare l'ambiente politico-economico in cui gli investimenti vengono canalizzati. Il quarto saggio valuta il ruolo della governance e della qualità regolatoria nel quadro di modellazione dell'accesso all'energia elettrica. In particolare, si introduce un indice di governance dell'accesso all'elettricità basato su più indicatori che viene poi implementato nel modello di elettrificazione IMAGE-TIMER. L’effetto dell’indice viene modellato attraverso il suo effetto modificatore sui tassi di sconto privati (una misura del rischio e della disponibilità ad accettare costi futuri rispetto ai costi attuali). I risultati mostrano che la governance e la qualità regolatoria nell'accesso all'elettricità hanno un impatto significativo sul mix tecnologico ottimale e sui flussi di investimenti privati per raggiungere l'elettrificazione universale in Africa subsahariana. In particolare, un ambiente rischioso scoraggia l’investimento da parte dei fornitori privati di soluzioni di accesso decentralizzato all'energia, con il rischio di lasciare molti senza elettricità anche oltre il 2030. Il quinto e ultimo saggio analizza il settore energetico africano da un punto di vista ‘Nexus’. Il saggio valuta l'affidabilità del sistema energetico nei sistemi energetici dominati dall'energia idroelettrica (come in molti paesi dell'Africa centrale e orientale) e del ruolo che i cambiamenti climatici e gli eventi estremi possono esercitare su di esso. Il lavoro combina analisi qualitative e quantitative per (i) proporre un solido framework per evidenziare le interdipendenze tra energia idroelettrica, disponibilità di acqua e cambiamento climatico, (ii) analizzare sistematicamente lo stato dell'arte sugli impatti previsti dei cambiamenti climatici su l'energia idroelettrica nell'Africa subsahariana e (iii) fornire evidenza empirica sui trend passati e sulle traiettorie di sviluppo futuro del settore. I risultati suggeriscono che il cambiamento climatico influenzerà l'affidabilità e la sicurezza della fornitura elettrica attraverso diversi canali. Ad esempio, molti dei principali bacini idrologici sono stati caratterizzati da una diminuzione del livello idrico nel corso del ventesimo secolo. Si evidenzia come tuttavia una diversificazione del mix di generazione elettrico sia finora stata promossa solo in un numero limitato di paesi. Si suggerisce infine che l'integrazione delle fonti rinnovabili variabili con l'energia idroelettrica possa aumentare la resilienza del sistema. / This dissertation is a collection of five essays examining some important energy-related aspects at the interplay of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s development and its interactions with the regional and global environment. The essays are introduced by a general overview chapter – highlighting the core energy-related challenges of SSA and the scope of this work. The main implications of the essays, both for research and for policymakers, are then considered in the final discussion chapter. The first essay focuses on access to modern energy, and chiefly on electricity. I illustrate the role of satellite data and the statistical analysis of geospatial data in improving the understanding of the electricity access situation in sub-Saharan Africa. The essay includes an analysis of inequality characterising the electricity access quality in the region. The main finding is that after decades, energy access inequality is beginning to decline but it remains prominent in particular as far as the quantity consumed is concerned. I find that electrification efforts between 2020 and 2030 must triplicate their pace to meet Sustainable Development Goal 7.1.1. The second essay develops a spatially-explicit bottom-up energy demand assessment platform to estimate the energy needs among communities where access to electricity is currently lacking, as identified with the methodology introduced in the first essay. The assessment is not restricted to residential energy needs, but it includes a detailed, appliance-based account of power needs for schools, healthcare facilities, water pumping for irrigation, crop processing, and micro enterprises, the key drivers of rural development. I carry out a country-study for Kenya to show the importance of considering multiple demand sources beyond residential when the aim is developing an electrification strategy which truly overcomes energy poverty. I also show that there is considerable potential for rural productivity and profitability growth thanks to the input of electric energy. In many areas, these local profits might pay back the electrification infrastructure investment in only few years. The third essay analyses a specific aspect at the interplay between electricity access planning, household energy demand and climate change adaptation. I combine climate, satellite, and demographic data and scenarios to produce a global spatially-explicit estimate of unmet ACC demand due to the lack of electricity access. Based on integrated climate-energy and geospatial electrification modelling, I find that in sub-Saharan Africa, the global hotspot of energy poverty, accounting for the estimated local ACC needs on top of baseline residential consumption targets determines a substantial reduction in the share of decentralised systems as the least-cost electrification option by 2030, and a major ramp-up in the power generation capacity and investment requirements. My results call for a greater consideration of climate adaptation needs in the planning of energy systems of developing countries and in evaluating the trade-off between the central power grid expansion and decentralised systems to achieve universal electrification. Electrification planning must be techno-economically efficient, but it must also consider the political-economic environment where investment needs to be channelled. The fourth essay evaluates the role of governance and regulatory quality in the electricity access modelling framework. In particular, I introduce an Electricity Access Governance Index based on multiple indicators implement it into the PBL’s IMAGE-TIMER electrification model through its modifier effect on private discount rates (a measure of risk and willingness to accept future costs vis-à-vis present costs). The results show that governance and regulatory quality in electricity access have a significant impact on the optimal technological mix and the private investment flows for reaching universal electrification in sub-Saharan Africa. In particular, risky environment crowd out private providers of decentralised energy access solutions with the risk of leaving many without electricity even after 2030. The fifth and final essay takes a nexus perspective in the analysis of the African power sector. It deals with the reliability of the energy system in hydropower-dominated power systems (such as in many countries in Central and East Africa) and the role that climate change and extreme events can exert on it. The essay combines qualitative and quantitative analysis to (i) propose a robust framework to highlight the interdependencies between hydropower, water availability, and climate change, (ii) systematically review the state-of-the art literature on the projected impacts of climate change on hydropower in sub-Saharan Africa, and (iii) provide supporting evidence on past trends and current pathways of power mix diversification, drought incidence, and climate change projections. I find that climate change can affect supply reliability and security in multiple ways. For instance, several major river basins have been drying throughout the twentieth century. Nonetheless, I highlight that diversification has hitherto only been promoted in a limited number of countries. I suggest how integrating variable renewables and hydropower can increase system resilience.

Целью исследования является разработка усовершенствованной методики оценки экономической безопасности предприятий нефтегазовой отрасли. Поставленная цель достигается посредством решения следующего ряда задач: рассмотреть теоретические и методологические основы оценки экономической безопасности; разработать усовершенствованную методику оценки, учитывающую особенность и спецификацию предприятия нефтегазового комплекса; рассчитать по усовершенствованной методики оценку экономической безопасности ПАО «Газпром»; выявить направления по укреплению экономической безопасности ПАО «Газпром. Научная новизна заключается в следующем: 1. Представлено и раскрыто уточненное определение понятия "Экономическая безопасность предприятия НГО", призванное стать теоретической основой формирования предмета оценочных мероприятий в рамках комплексных аналитических процедур. 2. Усовершенствована методика анализа экономической безопасности предприятий НГО, адаптированная к специфике деятельности предприятий НГО и представляющая возможность формирования интегрированного оценочного суждения об уровне экономической безопасности объекта исследования. 3. Разработан регламент внедрения системы оценки экономической без-опасности, призванный сформировать организационную основу управления экономической безопасностью предприятий НГО. / The aim of the study is to develop an improved methodology for assessing the economic security of the oil and gas industry. The goal is achieved through the solution of the following series of tasks: to consider the theoretical and methodological basis for assessing economic security; to develop an improved evaluation methodology that takes into account the peculiarities and specifications of the oil and gas complex; to calculate, based on the improved methodology, an assessment of the economic security of PJSC Gazprom; Identify areas for strengthening economic security of PJSC Gazprom. Scientific novelty consists in the following: 1. The updated definition of the concept of "Economic security of an OGI enterprise" is presented and disclosed, which is intended to become the theoretical basis for the formation of the subject of evaluation activities within the framework of complex analytical procedures. 2. The methodology for analyzing the economic security of enterprises of the OGI, adapted to the specifics of the activities of enterprises of the OGI, is presented and it is possible to form an integrated assessment of the level of economic safety of the research object. 3. The regulations for the implementation of the economic security assessment system, designed to form the organizational basis for managing the economic security of OGI enterprises, have been developed.

In den letzten Jahren hat die Rolle naturbasierter Lösungen (Nature-based Solutions, NbS) –Aktivitäten, die in und mit der Natur arbeiten, um globale gesellschaftliche Herausforderungen zu bewältigen – bei der Abschwächung und Anpassung an den Klimawandel, dem Schutz der Artenvielfalt und der Verbesserung des menschlichen Wohlbefindens an Bedeutung gewonnen. Die Einführung von NbS verläuft jedoch weiterhin schleppend, und es besteht nach wie vor eine deutliche Kluft zwischen den langsamen Maßnahmen in großem Maßstab und den vielversprechenden Forschungsergebnissen und politischen Aussagen. Dies zeigt, dass es dringend notwendig ist, die Umsetzungsbedingungen für NbS besser zu verstehen. Derzeit ist die Evidenzbasis zu NbS noch unvollständig, insbesondere wenn es um die systematische Bewertung der Wirksamkeit und der Umsetzungsanforderungen geht. Insbesondere fehlen bei groß angelegten Bewertungen wichtige kontextbezogene Informationen über Kultur, Verhalten und andere soziale und institutionelle Faktoren. Auch die vielfältigen Vorteile von NbS werden nach wie vor unterschätzt oder in einigen Fällen überhaupt nicht gewürdigt. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es daher, politikrelevante Forschung zu betreiben, die dazu beitragen kann, die Lücke zwischen dem großen Potenzial naturbasierter Lösungen zur Bewältigung globaler Herausforderungen, insbesondere der Eindämmung des Klimawandels, und der langsamen Umsetzung in der Praxis zu schließen. Ausgehend von der vorhandenen Literatur zu NbS argumentiere ich, dass drei Bausteine für die erfolgreiche Umsetzung jeder NbS-Aktivität, insbesondere in großem Maßstab, wesentlich sind: (1) Wissenssynthese; (2) Planung und Entscheidungsfindung; (3) Politik und Finanzierungsmechanismen. In dieser Arbeit untersuche ich diese Bereiche, indem ich Nachweise und Überlegungen zu theoretischen und methodischen Lücken in ihrer Bewertung sowie neue Perspektiven beisteuere. / Recent years have seen increased attention to the role that nature-based solutions (NbS) – activities that work in and with nature to address global societal challenges – can play in mitigating and adapting to climate change, protecting biodiversity, and improving human well-being. Natural climate solutions (NCS) – a subset of NbS – can contribute up to a third of the cost-effective carbon dioxide mitigation needed to hold global warming below 2 degrees Celsius. To have the biggest effect on reducing global temperatures, however, NbS must be scaled up now and designed for the long-term. Yet, uptake of NbS continues to be slow and there remains a clear gap between the lagging action at scale and the promising research and policy narratives. This demonstrates an urgent need to better understand the implementation conditions for NbS. Currently, the evidence base on NbS remains incomplete, especially when it comes to systematically assessing effectiveness and implementation requirements. In particular, important contextual information on culture, behavior, and other social and institutional factors are lacking in large-scale assessments. The multiple benefits of NbS also remain undervalued, or in some cases are not valued at all. As such, the objective of this thesis is to conduct policy-relevant research that can contribute to closing the gap between the high potential for nature-based solutions to address global challenges, particularly climate change mitigation, and the realities of slow implementation in practice. Drawing on the existing literature on NbS, I argue that three building blocks are essential to driving successful implementation of any NbS activity, in particular at scale: (1) knowledge synthesis; (2) planning & decision-making; (3) policy & financing mechanisms. I explore these in this thesis, contributing evidence and reflection on theoretical and methodological gaps in their assessment, as well as new perspectives.

The objective of the research was to investigate an improvement in job performance when role-play is used as a training and assessment tool in a sales call centre environment. The research was conducted by means of a competence assessment used at different stages (Quality Assurance Performance Management Questionnaire). The final stage was two weeks after the learners who had qualified to be sales agents had entered a real working environment. At this final stage, calls were retrieved and rated against the Quality Assurance Performance Management Questionnaire (QAPMQ). A sample of 40 novice sales agents (learners) were selected and randomly divided into the control and experimental groups. The research findings indicated that if planned well, role-play can be an effective training and assessment tool. / Industrial & Organisational Psychology / M.Comm. (Industrial & Organisational Psychology)

La prima parte della Tesi si occupa dello studio delle strategie di investimento ottime nel settore energetico e in ricerca e sviluppo, nell'ambito di politiche di stabilizzazione dei gas serra nell'atmosfera. La seconda parte tratta invece metodi per la quantificazione degli impatti economici dei cambiamenti climatici sul settore agricolo, considerando tutte le possibilità di adattamento. / The first part of the Thesis discusses optimal investment strategies in the energy sector and in R&D for knowledge advancements to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of GHG. The second part deals instead with the measurement of impacts of climate change on agriculture considering all possible adaptation options.

Radiative forcing by increased atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) produced by human activities could lead to strongly undesirable effects on oceans and their dependent human systems in the coming centuries. Such dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system is a possibility the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls on nations to avoid. Unacceptable consequences of such interference could include inundation of coastal areas and low-lying islands by rising sea level, the rate of which could exceed natural and human ability to adapt, and ocean acidification contributing to widespread disruption of marine and human food systems. Such consequences pose daunting socioeconomic costs, for developing nations in particular. Drawing on existing literature, we define example levels of acceptable global marine change in terms of global mean temperature rise, sea level rise and ocean acidification. A global-mean climate model (ACC2), is implemented in an optimizing environment, GAMS, and coupled to an economic model (DICE). Using cost-effectiveness analysis and the tolerable windows approach (TWA) allows for the computation of both economically optimal carbon dioxide emissions pathways as well as a range in carbon dioxide emissions (the so-called ``emissions corridor'') which respect the predetermined ceilings and take into account the socio-economically acceptable pace of emissions reductions. The German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) has issued several guardrails focused on marine changes, of which we find the rate and absolute rise in global mean temperature to be the most restrictive (0.2 degrees Celsius per decade, 2 degrees Celsius total). Respecting these guardrails will require large reductions in both carbon and non-carbon GHGs over the next century, regardless of equilibrium climate sensitivity. WBGU sea level rise and rate of rise guardrails (1 meter absolute, 5 cm per decade) are substantially less restrictive, and respecting them does not require deviation from a business-as-usual path in the next couple hundred of years, provided common assumptions of Antarctic ice mass balance sensitivity are correct. The ocean acidification guardrail (0.2 unit decline relative to the pre-industrial value) is less restrictive than those for temperature, but does require emissions reductions into the coming century.

This study investigated the critical success factors that affect the effectiveness and efficiency of mergers and acquisitions, by soliciting responses from bank Chief Executives and case evidence from the South African banking industry for the period 1990 to 2015. The study applied a mixed-use methodology. The case study evidence was drawn from the formation of the “Big Four Banks” in South Africa, namely, Absa (“Barclays Africa Group”), First Rand Group, Nedbank Group and Standard Bank Group. The study found that when visions and values of merging banks were aligned, there was a greater chance of success. The study further found that culture compatibility of merging entities is paramount. Stakeholder acceptance was also found to have a strong impact on the chance of success or failure in mergers and acquisitions (M&A). The case evidence corroborated and substantiated that there was a positive Deal Value Added (DVA) trend before the merger activity and immediately thereafter, evidenced by positive share price appreciation resulting in increased market capitalisation. The quantitative results found that 56% of the sampled CEOs indicated that an 80% majority of bank mergers in the South African banking sector had created value over the long term, evidenced by 10-year return trends. This study contributes to the corpus of knowledge by generating an integrated assessment framework that can be applied even beyond the South African environment, by practitioners involved in mergers and acquisition activities. / Graduate SBL / D.B.L.

The objective of the research was to investigate an improvement in job performance when role-play is used as a training and assessment tool in a sales call centre environment. The research was conducted by means of a competence assessment used at different stages (Quality Assurance Performance Management Questionnaire). The final stage was two weeks after the learners who had qualified to be sales agents had entered a real working environment. At this final stage, calls were retrieved and rated against the Quality Assurance Performance Management Questionnaire (QAPMQ). A sample of 40 novice sales agents (learners) were selected and randomly divided into the control and experimental groups. The research findings indicated that if planned well, role-play can be an effective training and assessment tool. / Industrial and Organisational Psychology / M.Comm. (Industrial & Organisational Psychology)

Sous l’angle des controverses économiques et environnementales autour des hydrocarbures non conventionnels, cette thèse contribue au développement des outils de la modélisation intégrée sous deux aspects : leur capacité à représenter la dynamique de long terme des marchés de l’énergie ; la prise en compte des liens entre l’économie et la dynamique des différents gaz à effet de serre.Dans le premier cas, un jeu de simulations avec le modèle Imaclim-R met en évidence les impacts économiques du gaz et pétrole de schiste à travers (i) les liens entre trajectoires de crois-sance et inerties techniques ; (ii) la conditionnalité des gains de compétitivité des États-Unis aux stratégies implicites ou explicites de ce pays en matière de spécialisation internationale et de régime de change. Au détour de ces simulations nous étudions (α) les processus d’ajustement vers l’équilibre de long terme, en regardant les conditions d’obtention et de convergence des équilibres temporaires du modèle ; (β) les limites de tractabilitéd’une maquette stylisée du modèle reproduisant les mécanismes centraux.Dans le deuxième cas est traitée la question du rôle du méthane à court et long terme dans les stratégies climatiques. L’intégration du modèle réduit du système terrestre Oscar2.2 aumodèle Imaclim-R permet d’apprécier le rôle du méthane dans les coûts de l’atténuation et d’évaluer le risque d’émissions fugitives en tête de puits de gaz de schiste. Les simulations montrent que d’une part, l’avantage économique de la disponibilité en gaz de schiste peut être nuancé au regard du coût induit par ces émissions fugitives. D’autre part, les stratégies climatiques ambitieuses visant à limiter les augmentations de température bien en deçà de 2° voir 1.5°C nécessitent un contrôle plus immédiat des émissions de méthane. / From the perspective of economic and environmental controversies over unconventional oil and gas resources, this thesis contributes to the development of integrated modelling tools intwo aspects : their ability to reflect the long-term dynamics of energy markets ; and the consideration of the links between the economy and the dynamics of the various greenhouse gases.In the first case, a set of simulations with the Imaclim-R model highlights the economic impacts of shale gas and light tight oil through (i) the links between growth paths and technicalinertia ; (ii) the conditionality of US competitiveness gains on implicit or explained strategies ; and (iii) the conditionality of US competitiveness gains on this country implicit or explicit strategies in terms of international specialization and exchange rate regime. In the course of these simulations, we study (α) the adjustment processes towards the long-term equilibrium, looking at the conditions of existence and convergence of the model temporary equilibria ; (β) the tractability limits of a stylized model of Imaclim-R reproducing the main mechanisms.In the second case, the question of the role of methane in short and long term climate strategies is addressed. The integration of the Oscar2.2 Earth System model into the Imaclim-Rmodel is used to assess the role of methane in terms of mitigation costs and to assess the risk of emissions leakage at shale gas wellheads. The simulations show that, on the one hand, theeconomic advantage of shale gas availability can be balanced against the costs induced by these emissions leakage. On the other hand, the ambitous climate strategies aiming at limitingtemperature increases well below 2° or 1.5°C require a more instant control of methane.