How do states determine which geographical areas will be included in their territorial and maritime claims? This article uses an in-depth case study of Taiwan's South China Sea claim to argue that national identity, as played out through party politics, is a dominant factor shaping Taiwan's territorial and maritime claims.

Public support for the US Supreme Court has been trending downward for more than a decade. High-profile decisions and hotly contested nominations have drawn the Court into our polarized politics. Recently, some justices have spent considerable time and energy giving interviews, speeches, and the like, assuring the public that the Court is an apolitical, neutral arbiter of disputes, distinct from the "political"branches. In this context, we turn to an understudied potential source of judicial legitimacy: The off-bench public rhetoric of Supreme Court justices. In this article, we present evidence from three original survey experiments to argue that Supreme Court justices' off-bench rhetoric can powerfully influence public perceptions of the Court's institutional legitimacy. Furthermore, these studies show that performance approval is key to changes in legitimacy: Respondents who disapprove of a Court decision were immune to the effects of justices' rhetoric.

Social capital — resources that are available as a result of social relationships and connections — has been shown to be an important component across the various stages of a natural disaster, such as a hurricane. Additionally, research has shown that the importance of the different types of social capital — bonding, bridging, and linking — can vary as the disaster progresses from preparation, to the immediate aftermath, to long-term recovery. Yet, findings are not consistent regarding the impact of social capital on taking protective action (e.g., evacuation, shelter in home or community) following a hurricane warning. In this paper, we leverage an original survey of 1450 residents living in coastal communities in the Southeast and Gulf Coast regions of the United States to examine the role of social capital in stated behaviors in response to a hurricane warning. Additionally, we examine the stated likelihood of evacuating if advised to by close contacts (friends, family, and co-workers) and elite sources (emergency management officials, elected officials, and the media). We find that bonding social capital is associated with an increased likelihood to evacuate and shelter in home as well as an increased likelihood to listen to close contacts that encourage evacuation. In addition, we find that linking social capital is associated with an increased likelihood of evacuation if encouraged to by elite sources.

No description available.

Weather and climate disasters pose an increasing risk to life and property in the United States. Managing this risk requires objective information about the nature of the threat and subjective information about how people perceive it. Meteorologists and climatologists have a relatively firm grasp of the historical objective risk. For example, we know which parts of the United States are most likely to experience drought, heat waves, flooding, snow or ice storms, tornadoes, and hurricanes. We know less about the geographic distribution of the perceived risks of meteorological events and trends. Do subjective perceptions align with exposure to weather risks? This question is difficult to answer because analysts have yet to develop a comprehensive and spatially consistent methodology for measuring risk perceptions across geographic areas in the United States. In this project, we propose a methodology that uses multilevel regression and poststratification to estimate extreme weather and climate risk perceptions by geographic area (i.e., region, state, forecast area, and county). Then we apply the methodology using data from three national surveys (n = 9,542). This enables us to measure, map, and compare perceptions of risk from multiple weather hazards in geographic areas across the country.

Effective risk communication in the weather enterprise requires deep knowledge about the communities that enterprise members serve. This includes knowledge of the atmospheric and climate conditions in these communities as well as knowledge about the characteristics of the people living in these communities. Enterprise members often have access to data that facilitate the first type of knowledge, but relatively little social or behavioral data on the populations they serve. This article introduces an effort to overcome these challenges by developing a database of community statistics and an interactive platform that provides dynamic access to the database. Specific emphasis is given to one set of statistics in the community database: estimates of tornado warning reception, comprehension, and response by county warning area in the contiguous United States. Exploration of these estimates indicates significant variation in reception and comprehension across communities. This variation broadly aligns with tornado climatology, but there are noticeable differences within climatologically comparable regions that underline the importance of community-specific information. Verification of the estimates using independent observations from a random sample of communities confirms that the estimates are largely accurate, but there are a few consistent anomalies that prompt questions about why some communities exhibit higher or lower levels of reception, comprehension, and response than models suggest. The article concludes with a discussion of next steps and an invitation to use and contribute to the project as it progresses.

No description available.

In the wake of declining state support for higher education, many state leaders have adopted lottery earmark policies, which designate lottery revenue to higher education budgets as an alternative funding mechanism. However, despite the ubiquity of lottery earmarks for higher education, it remains unclear whether this new source of revenue serves to supplement or supplant state funding for higher education. In this paper, we use a difference-in-differences design for the years 1990–2009 to estimate the impact on state appropriations and state financial aid levels of designating lottery earmark funding to higher education. Main findings indicate that lottery earmark policies are associated with a 5 percent increase in higher education appropriations, and a 135 percent increase in merit-based financial aid. However, lottery earmarks are also associated with a decrease in need-based financial aid of approximately 12 percent. These findings have serious distributional implications that should be considered when state lawmakers adopt lottery earmark policies for higher education.

When the National Weather Service (NWS) issues a tornado warning, the alert is rapidly and widely disseminated to individuals in the general area of the warning. Historically, the assumption has been that a false-negative warning perception (i.e., when someone located within a warning polygon does not believe they have received a tornado warning) carries a higher cost than a false-positive warning perception (i.e., when someone located outside the warning area believes they have received a warning). While many studies investigate tornado warning false alarms (i.e., when the NWS issues a tornado warning, but a tornado does not actually occur), less work focuses on studying individuals outside of the warning polygon bounds who believe they received a warning (i.e., false-positive perceptions). This work attempts to quantify the occurrence of false-positive perceptions and possible factors associated with the rate of occurrence. Following two separate storm events, Oklahomans were asked whether they perceived a tornado warning. Their geolocated responses were then compared to issued warning polygons. Individuals closer to tornado warnings or within a different type of warning (e.g., a severe thunderstorm warning) are more likely to report a false-positive perception than those farther away or outside of other hazard warnings. Further work is needed to understand the rate of false-positive perceptions across different hazards and how this may influence warning response and trust in the National Weather Service.

The risks associated with disasters can be significantly reduced if individuals are well prepared according to the orders and recommendations of emergency management authorities such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and local government. Despite this fact, there is evidence that individuals are not cooperative with these authorities and are therefore underprepared for an emergency. This article argues that individual trust in emergency management authorities may affect their cooperation with emergency preparedness recommendations. Using unique survey data, this study finds a nuanced relationship between individual emergency preparedness for tornadoes and trust in emergency management authorities. Although trust in FEMA in isolation does not explain variations in individual preparedness for tornadoes, increased preparation for a tornado is explained by trust in local government contingent upon a low baseline level of trust in FEMA. This article concludes with some practical and theoretical implications for emergency management authorities and scholars.