Thesis. 1977. Ph.D.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences. / Microfiche copy available in Archives and Science. / Vita. / Bibliography : leaves 108-110. / Ph.D.

Using rotated principal component analysis, 200mb wind data from the First GARP Global Experiment are analyzed in the East Asia winter monsoon region. It is found that there exist slowly eastward-moving disturbances with a wind-speed maximum embedded in the jet stream (jet streak). The implied vertical circulation that is transverse to the jet streak is thermally direct in the entrance region of jet streak and thermally indirect in the exit region. The Lagrangian momentum equation for transient part of the flow indicates that the magnitude of westerly acceleration of an air parcel moving through the jet streak is related to the Coriolis acceleration of the transient ageostrophic flow, the advection of mean momentum by transient flow and momentum conversion between mean and transient flow due to transient eddies. Estimates of terms in this equation in the entrance region of jet streak suggest that the increase of westerly momentum due to the Coriolis acceleration of the ageostrophic flow is mostly balanced by the decrease due to the mean easterly momentum advection by the transient jet-streak flow. Thus, the confluence theory of Namias and Clapp (1949) appears to be valid for the slowly moving jet streaks in the East Asia jet stream. / Graduation date: 1989

The entire thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file; a non-technical public abstract appears in the public.pdf file. Title from PDF of title page (University of Missouri--Columbia, viewed on November 13, 2009). Thesis advisor: Dr. Patrick S. Market Includes bibliographical references.

Four continuous high-resolution peat records for the Holocene have been reconstructed across a ~300km transect from Shebster in Caithness to Yell in the Shetland Isles. These records describe the nature and extent of North Atlantic climate changes inferred from indicators of storminess and minerogenic aeolian dust, and are supported by radiogenic isotope analysis, tephrochronology and radiocarbon dating. The environmental changes at all four sites displays a significant degree of synchrony in response to changes in the position of the polar front jet (PFJ) stream and the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Bromine concentrations in the peat, derived from sea spray, are used to reconstruct storm frequency and storm intensity, and mire surface wetness is used as an indicator of longer-term climate shifts. The results suggest a strong link between positive phases of the NAO and storminess. Subtle differences between the bromine concentrations and the mire surface wetness suggest that high intensity but perhaps less frequent periods of storminess are not necessarily associated with a wetter climate. Atmospheric minerogenic dust concentrations are used to reconstruct large-scale climate changes across the wider North Atlantic region. The results suggest a sympathy between dust activity and periods of glacial advance and a negative index of the NAO. Radiogenic isotope analysis suggests that the smallest particles may originate from Iceland.

The effect of wind changes on aircraft routing has been identified as a potential impact of climate change on aviation. This is of particular interest for trans-Atlantic flights, where the pattern of upper-level winds over the north Atlantic, in particular the location and strength of the jet stream, strongly influences both the optimal flight route and the resulting flight time. Eastbound trans-Atlantic flights can often be routed to take advantage of the strong tailwinds in the jet stream, shortening the flight time and reducing fuel consumption. Here we investigate the impact of climate change on upper-level winds over the north Atlantic, using five climate model simulations from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, considering a high greenhouse-gas emissions scenario. The impact on aircraft routing and flight time are quantified using flight routing software. The climate models agree that the jet stream will be on average located 1° further north, with a small increase in mean strength, by 2100. However daily variations in both its location and speed are significantly larger than the magnitude of any changes due to climate change. The net effect of climate change on trans-Atlantic aircraft routes is small; in the annual-mean eastbound routes are 1 min shorter and located further north and westbound routes are 1 min longer and more spread out around the great circle. There are, however, seasonal variations; route time changes are larger in winter, while in summer both eastbound and westbound route times increase.

Nesta tese foi estudado o transporte de partículas na borda do plasma confinado magneticamente em tokamaks a partir de um modelo para ondas de deriva proveniente de flutuaçõoes eletrostáticas geradas pela não uniformidade do plasma. Para investigar esse problema, consideramos o modelo com duas ondas de deriva, que possui uma complexa dinâmica não linear onde podemos encontrar tanto transporte anômalo quanto transporte difusivo. Para a encontras no plano de fases as Estruturas Lagrangianas Coerentes (ELCs) e os jatos, foram confeccionados mapas de Poincaré, diagramas de expoente de Lyapunov a tempo finito, diagramas de deslocamento quadrático, diagramas de autocorrelação da velocidade e o diagrama de retorno. Para avaliar o impacto dessas ELCs no transporte de partículas foram analisados a série temporal do desvio padrão médio, da dispersão relativa e dos saltos dentro do mapa de Poincar´e e também foram confeccionados histogramas com a distribuição desses saltos. Foi encontrado que, com duas ondas de deriva e para uma determinada combinação de parâmetros, surgem correntes de jato, que persistem por longos períodos, imersas na região caótica. Verificamos que, assim como nas ilhas, a região interna às correntes de jato são inacessíveis às ELCs. Também foi encontrado que, quando existe uma corrente de jato, o transporte observado na região caótica não é simétrico com uma pequena deriva na direção contraria ao jato. Esse fenômeno observado ocorre em contrapartida ao caso típico de sistemas com mistura em que as ELCs tem acesso a todo o plano de fase e o transporte é difusivo. / In this thesis we studied the particle transport in the edge of magnetically confined plasma in tokamaks using a model of drift waves due to electrostatic fluctuations generated by the non-uniformity of the plasma. To investigate this issue, we consider the model with two drift waves, which has a complex nonlinear dynamics where we can find both anomalous and diffusive transport. To find the Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) and the jets, we used Poincaré maps, Finite time Lyapunov exponent diagrams, quadratic displacement diagrams, autocorrelation velocity diagrams and return displacement diagram. To evaluate the impact of LCSs in the transport of particles, we analyzed the time series of both average standard deviation and relative dispertion and also histograms of the distribution of these jumps. It was found that, with two drift waves and for a given combination of parameters, a jet streams appear in the phase space and persist for long periods of time immersed in the chaotic region. We found that, as well as on the islands, the inner region of the jet streams are inaccessible to LCSs. It was also found that when there is a jet stream, the transport observed in the chaotic region is not symmetrical and have a small drift in the opposite direction to the jet. This phenomenon is observed in contrast to the typical case of systems with mixing in wich the LCSs have access to all the phase space and the trasnport is diffusive.

This study discusses the influence of tropopause folding in ozone total column during the passage of frontal systems. This research aims to analyze, from the relations between the upper level jet and the ozone total column, tropopause folding in southern South America. The aim is also to quantify the cold fronts that have acted throughout 2008, as well as identify them in tropopause folding events and action of the jet stream. Finally, it verifies the occurrence of stratospheric air into the troposphere at selected events. This research is characterized by being predominantly qualitative in relation to the collection and analysis of data obtained from Brewer Spectrophotometers, installed at the Southern Space Observatory, and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). It is noteworthy that were initially selected all events of cold fronts that occurred in 2008. However, only events of greater magnitude were analyzed and the chosen were the ones that evidenced a strong tropopause folding. Of the results analyzed, we can conclude that the ozone total column is influenced by the passage of fronts and may increase when there is intrusion of stratospheric air in the troposphere through the tropopause folding, caused by the action of the jet stream that comes with the front. / O presente estudo trata da influência do envelopamento da tropopausa na coluna total de ozônio, durante a passagem dos sistemas frontais. Esta pesquisa tem como objetivo analisar, a partir das relações entre a corrente de jato em altos níveis e a coluna total de ozônio, o envelopamento da tropopausa no sul da América do Sul. Pretende-se também quantificar as frentes frias que agiram ao longo de 2008, bem como identificá-las em eventos de envelopamento da tropopausa e ação da corrente de jato. Por fim, verifica-se como ocorre a intrusão de ar estratosférico para a troposfera em eventos escolhidos. A presente pesquisa se caracteriza por ser predominantemente de caráter qualitativo em relação ao levantamento e análise dos dados, obtidos através de Espectrofotômetro Brewer, instalado no Observatório Espacial do Sul, e pelo Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Ressalta-se que foram inicialmente selecionados todos os eventos de frentes frias ocorridos em 2008. Porém, apenas os eventos de maior magnitude foram analisados e destes foram escolhidos os que evidenciavam um forte envelopamento da tropopausa. Dos resultados analisados, pode-se concluir que a coluna total de ozônio sofre influência com a passagem das frentes, podendo aumentar quando ocorre a intrusão do ar estratosférico na troposfera, através do envelopamento da tropopausa, causado pela ação da corrente de jato que acompanha a frente.

Nesta tese foi estudado o transporte de partículas na borda do plasma confinado magneticamente em tokamaks a partir de um modelo para ondas de deriva proveniente de flutuaçõoes eletrostáticas geradas pela não uniformidade do plasma. Para investigar esse problema, consideramos o modelo com duas ondas de deriva, que possui uma complexa dinâmica não linear onde podemos encontrar tanto transporte anômalo quanto transporte difusivo. Para a encontras no plano de fases as Estruturas Lagrangianas Coerentes (ELCs) e os jatos, foram confeccionados mapas de Poincaré, diagramas de expoente de Lyapunov a tempo finito, diagramas de deslocamento quadrático, diagramas de autocorrelação da velocidade e o diagrama de retorno. Para avaliar o impacto dessas ELCs no transporte de partículas foram analisados a série temporal do desvio padrão médio, da dispersão relativa e dos saltos dentro do mapa de Poincar´e e também foram confeccionados histogramas com a distribuição desses saltos. Foi encontrado que, com duas ondas de deriva e para uma determinada combinação de parâmetros, surgem correntes de jato, que persistem por longos períodos, imersas na região caótica. Verificamos que, assim como nas ilhas, a região interna às correntes de jato são inacessíveis às ELCs. Também foi encontrado que, quando existe uma corrente de jato, o transporte observado na região caótica não é simétrico com uma pequena deriva na direção contraria ao jato. Esse fenômeno observado ocorre em contrapartida ao caso típico de sistemas com mistura em que as ELCs tem acesso a todo o plano de fase e o transporte é difusivo. / In this thesis we studied the particle transport in the edge of magnetically confined plasma in tokamaks using a model of drift waves due to electrostatic fluctuations generated by the non-uniformity of the plasma. To investigate this issue, we consider the model with two drift waves, which has a complex nonlinear dynamics where we can find both anomalous and diffusive transport. To find the Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) and the jets, we used Poincaré maps, Finite time Lyapunov exponent diagrams, quadratic displacement diagrams, autocorrelation velocity diagrams and return displacement diagram. To evaluate the impact of LCSs in the transport of particles, we analyzed the time series of both average standard deviation and relative dispertion and also histograms of the distribution of these jumps. It was found that, with two drift waves and for a given combination of parameters, a jet streams appear in the phase space and persist for long periods of time immersed in the chaotic region. We found that, as well as on the islands, the inner region of the jet streams are inaccessible to LCSs. It was also found that when there is a jet stream, the transport observed in the chaotic region is not symmetrical and have a small drift in the opposite direction to the jet. This phenomenon is observed in contrast to the typical case of systems with mixing in wich the LCSs have access to all the phase space and the trasnport is diffusive.

Southeastern South America (SESA), a region encompassing Paraguay, Southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northern Argentina, experienced a 23% increase in austral summer precipitation from 1902-2022, one of the largest precipitation trends observed globally. There is little consensus on the drivers of the precipitation trend, but Atlantic multidecadal variability, stratospheric ozone depletion, and greenhouse gas emissions stand out as key contributing factors. The work presented in this dissertation addresses two main questions. First, what are the historical drivers of the SESA precipitation increase? To address this, I investigate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 3, 5, and 6 and find that not only do fully-coupled climate models simulate positive SESA precipitation trends that are much weaker over the historical interval, but some models persistently simulate negative precipitation trends. The same is true of two atmospheric models forced with observed historical sea surface temperatures. While future 21st-century projections yield positive ensemble mean precipitation trends that grow with increasing greenhouse-gas emissions, the mean forced response never exceeds the observed historical trend. Finally, some pre-industrial control runs occasionally simulate centennial-scale trends that fall within the observational range, but most do not. The second question I address is why climate models struggle to simulate the observed SESA precipitation trend. In an attempt to understand the model bias, I investigate one driver of SESA precipitation variability: the South American low-level jet. By developing a jet index from low-level moisture fluxes into SESA, I find that increased moisture flux through the jet accounts for 20-45% of the observed SESA precipitation trend from 1951-2020 in two reanalysis datasets. While results vary among reanalyses, both point to increased humidity as a fundamental driver of increased moisture flux and precipitation. Increased humidity within the jet is consistent with warming sea surface temperatures driven by anthropogenic forcing, although additional natural climate variations also may have played a role. The jet’s velocity also increased, further enhancing precipitation, but without a clear connection to anthropogenic forcing. These findings indicate that the SESA precipitation trend is partly attributable to jet intensification arising from both natural variability and anthropogenic forcing. In my final research chapter, I explore whether CMIP6 models simulate a realistic relationship between SESA precipitation and the jet, as well as whether inaccuracies in the characterization of the jet could explain muted trends in simulated SESA precipitation. I find that the interannual variability in the simulated jet-precipitation relationship aligns well with results from observations from 1951-2014. Interannual precipitation variability across the models is primarily dominated by the jet’s velocity. The models simulate a forced increase in humidity within the jet, consistent with observations and theory, that contributes a positive trend to SESA precipitation. Given that the models generally simulate realistic jet-precipitation relationships, I conclude that model misrepresentation of the jet is not a likely explanation for the discrepancy between simulated and observed SESA precipitation trends. Despite remaining uncertainties, my work sheds new light on our understanding of SESA precipitation variability and trends. Future work is needed to better understand the large-scale drivers of SESA precipitation outside of the jet and why climate models largely underestimate or fail to reproduce the observed precipitation trend. While Atlantic multidecadal variability is often cited as an important contributor to the SESA precipitation trend, I find austral summer forcing from the Atlantic to be ambiguous with regard to SESA precipitation and requires further analysis. Additionally, I highlight the Pacific South American mode as another contributing factor that warrants further exploration.

In this project warm extreme temperature events in the Arctic region during the spring months March, April and May were identified and analysed. In the analysis daily average NCEP reanalysis data from NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL format was used. The extreme events were retrieved as the highest positive temperature anomalies from the climatological mean, and the synoptic scale plots for the 50 most extreme events were created to identify what patterns caused the extreme warming over the Polar region. By contouring the areas of statistical significance, the regions with a reoccuring pattern were identified. The results conclude that cyclonic activity over the high Arctic extending down over Greenland and northern Canada combined with anomalously high geopotential height over the north Pacific ocean, over the Arctic, and towards Siberia cause the high temperatures over the pole. A weaker Polar Vortex causes perturbations in the jet stream, ridges in these Rossby waves can act as a pathway for warm and moist air from the oceanic regions which has a warming effect in the Arctic. Further analysis can be done to investigate what teleconnections these spring-time extreme events have on a global scale. / Under detta projekt har extremt varma temperaturevent i Arktisområdet under vårmånaderna Mars, April och Maj identifierats samt analyserats, genom att använda daglig medelvärdes NCEP reanalys data från NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL i NetCDF format. De extrema händelserna identifierades genom att ta de största positiva temperaturavvikelserna från ett klimatologiskt medelvärde, storskaliga avvikelseplottar skapades för de 50 mest extrema händelserna för att kunna identifiera meteorologiska mönster som ovanligt varma Arktisdagar. De områden med mest återkommande mönsterna var statistiskt signifikanta  och markerades med svarta konturer. Resultaten visar att lågtrycksaktivitet i Arktis som sträcker sig ner över Grönland samt norra Kanada kombinerat med höga geopotentialhöjdavvikelser över Stilla havet och Sibirien som sträcker sig upp mot Nordpolen orsakar ovanligt höga temperaturer i Arktis. En svag polarvirvel orsakar störningar i jetströmmen, dessa ryggar i jetströmmen kan transportera varm fuktig luft från haven mot polen vilket kan ha en värmande effekt. Vidare forskning kan utföras för att identifiera de exakta kopplingarna och konsekvenserna som dessa varma extrema Arktishändelser har globalt.