The purpose of this research report is to determine whether the use of a Downside risk variable – the D-Beta – is more appropriate in the emerging market of South Africa than the regular Beta used in the CAPM model. The prior research upon which this report expands, performed by Estrada (1999; 2002; 2005), focuses on using Downside risk models mainly at an overall country (market) level. This report focuses exclusively on South Africa, but could be applicable to various other emerging markets. The reason for researching this topic is simple: Investors – not just in South Africa, but all across the world – think of risk differently to the way that it is defined in terms of modern portfolio theory. Beta measures risk by giving equal weight to both Upside and Downside volatility, while in reality, investors are a lot more sensitive to Downside fluctuations. The Downside Beta takes into account only returns which are below a certain benchmark, thereby allowing investors to determine a share’s Downside volatility. When the Downside Beta is included as the primary measure of systematic risk in an asset pricing model (such as the D-CAPM), the result is a model which can be used to determine cost of equity, and make forecasts about share returns. The results of this research indicate that using the D-CAPM to forecast returns results in improved accuracy when compared to using the CAPM. However, when comparing goodness of fit, the CAPM and the D-CAPM are not significantly different. Even with this conflicting result, this research shows that there is indeed value in using the D-Beta in South Africa, especially during times of economic downturn.

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), as introduced by Markowitz (1952), Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965), Black (1972) and Mossin (1966), offers powerful and intuitively pleasing predictions about the risk and return relationship that is expected when investing in equities. Studies on the empirical strength of the CAPM such as Fama and French (1992), however, indicate that the model does not reflect the share return actually obtained on the equity market. Attempting to improve the model, Fama and French (1993) enhanced the original CAPM by incorporating other factors which may be relevant in predicting the return on share investments, specifically, the book – to – market ratio and the market capitalisation of the entity. Carhart (1997) further attempted to improve the CAPM by incorporating momentum analysis together with the 3 factors identified by Fama and French (1993). This research report empirically evaluates the accuracy of the above three models in calculating the cost of equity on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange over the period 2002 to 2012. Portfolios of shares were constructed based on the three models for the purposes of this evaluation. The results indicate that the book-to-market ratio and market capitalisation are able to add some robustness to the CAPM, but that the results of formulating book – to – market and market capitalization portfolios is highly volatile and therefore may lead to inconsistent results going forward. By incorporating the short run momentum effect, the robustness of the CAPM is improved substantially, as the Carhart model comes closest to reflecting what, for the purposes of this study, represents the ideal performance of an effective asset pricing model. The Fama and French (1993) and Carhart (1997) models therefore present a step forward in formulating an asset pricing model that will hold up under empirical evaluation, where the expected cost of equity is representative of the total return that can be expected from investing in a portfolio of shares. It is however established that the additional factors indicated above are volatile, and this volatility may influence the results of a longer term study.

ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION: Cancer is one of the most common diseases in the developed world and both genetic and environmental factors play a role in the development of cancer. About 5-10% of all cancers are due to predisposing genes. Some of the more common inherited cancer syndromes are hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) and two colorectal cancer syndromes, familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) and hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC). Recognition of cancer susceptibility can allow “at risk” individuals and families to participate in cancer risk assessment, genetic testing, and various cancer prevention strategies. As the public is becoming more aware of inherited cancers, it is expected that there will be an increasing demand for genetic services and testing. For this reason more GP involvement is required to assess patients and families at risk and refer them appropriately. Since the Clinical and Counselling Section, Division of Human Genetics, National Health Laboratory Service and University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg is establishing a cancer genetics service it woud be of great value to assess the GPs’ practice, knowledge and attitudes with regards to cancer genetics and this was therefore the aim of this study. METHODOLOGY: A quantitative, exploratory research design was chosen and GPs in the Johannesburg area were selected as subjects. After the completion of a pilot study a research package was mailed to 196 GPs. This package was sent out twice and both times the GPs were asked to respond within 3-4 weeks. The final sample consisted of 61 GPs and the data were analysed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Of the 61 participants more male GPs (42, 69%) than female GPs (19, 31%) responded and there were about an equal number of GPs practicing alone (29, 48) and in a multiple practice (32, 52%). Twenty two (33%) of the GPs had never had personal experience of cancer. Practices: The GPs made use of several cancer screening procedures but obtained limited information on cancer history from their patients particularly from second degree relatives and about age of onset. Very few subjects (15, 25%) reported that they assess patients’ risk for inherited cancer susceptibility and only 22 (36%) reported that they refer patients to other facilities for risk assessment and genetic testing. Knowledge: Only 32 (52%) of the GPs were aware of genetic testing facilities and 54 (86%) reported never having received advertising material to promote genetic testing for cancer susceptibility services. They also are not aware of genetic counselling facilities but do feel patients should have genetic counselling by a genetic counselor, clinical geneticist or oncologist before genetic testing. Even though genetic testing for inherited cancer susceptibility is only available at some academic institutions, mostly on a research basis, the GPs seem to be unaware of the availability of genetic testing in South Africa for colorectal cancer genes (8, 13% and 9, 15%) but 28 (46%) knew about breast cancer genes. They were not aware of the autosomal dominant inheritance of hereditary breast cancer and the percentage of individuals with breast cancer who carry the BRCA1/2 gene nor did they know the penetrance of HNPCC genes. Attitudes: The subjects’ attitudes to genetic testing for inherited cancer susceptibility were positive although they reported that they were unaware of several general factors regarding cancer genetic testing. The GPs had limited knowledge about inherited cancers and do not take an active part in cancer genetic management. However, 53 (87%) of the GPs reported interest in learning about these services and expected to play a role in cancer genetics in the future. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study suggest that there is a need to educate GPs about the basic cancer genetic concepts so that they can identify patients at risk for an inherited cancer syndrome. They need to be informed about the genetic tests currently available for the inherited cancer syndromes, and about genetic counselling and testing facilities.

M. Arch Thesis / Cinema has been considered the primary art form of the 20th Century. However, due the falling number of cinema goers the art form is under threat of losing its significance in modern day society. The decline in cinema goers has led to the decreased profitability of the independent film industry. This has led to the reduction of the complex narrative in films and an increased focus on special effects. As a result films, and the way in which they are perceived, are losing their artistic integrity as an art form. Through the formation of a cinematic architecture a more spatialized experience can be projected upon the audience. This creates a space of pure experience and hedonistic escape for the cinema goer. It can then be said that through architecture, the reinvention of the cinema typology and an increased approachability within the independent film industry, an experience can be created that could not be replicated in one’s home. The rise of the home theatre and internet based media has come to justify the need for the cinema to act as a social space. The non‐exclusivity that was once a strong driver of the 1930’s ‘Golden Age’ of cinema has become increasingly fictional in the present day context. The decline in cinema goers stems far beyond cinema and lies in the relevance of film to the common man. This thesis aims to break down the barriers that surround the film and cinematic universe and allow it to flood the surrounding city context embedding itself in the local culture. The physical design should programmatically encompass elements of pre‐production and postproduction with Johannesburg acting as the physical film set for production. The average man should have the ability to enter this building, gain the skills and knowledge to develop a film, rent the relevant equipment, edit the film and use the building as a platform to showcase work and earn an income. This ultimately transforms the building and its urban framework into a cultural knowledge database where depictions of local culture and time can be archived for future generations. Flexible professional workspace and the timesharing of highly specialised equipment allows for the rapid expansion and contraction common to the highly volatile industry. Park Station as a site choice acts as a cultural interchange. This provides vast interconnectivity that is needed to host large scale events such as the Jozi Film Festival and the South African Film and Television Awards (SAFTAs). A study of the history of cinema and its impact throughout has inspired and informed this work. The temporal progression of cinematic style has resulted in the loss of both luxury and ‘The Spectacle’ of cinema. This being said, this progression has improved the availability, variety and increased the immersion of the audience within the film. Cinema architecture, through a more inclusive approach, can be reinvented to once again act as the primary platform of display for the independent film industry. Film will thus start to form an integral part of the surrounding streetscape and pedestrians’ daily lives. The building design will cater for the escapist and the socially integrated; the in‐between and the excluded.

Perception of risk was used as an independent variable and behaviour as the dependent variable in the research with the assumption that level of precaution used during sexual practices to safeguard against HIV infection will be positively related to the perception of risk to HIV. The conclusiveness of this approach was dependent on evidence that participants know what risky behaviour can contribute to contracting HIV/AIDS and on their willingness to report their risk perception honestly. A snowball sample consisting of 15 Zimbabwean women living in and around Johannesburg was employed. Research objectives were addressed through semistructured interviews. For all participants, perception of risk was qualified by a number of factors. Common precautionary strategies identified by women were to remain faithful to one partner and being more contemplative when choosing bed partners and using condoms. High risk perception was marked by having had various sexual partners, inconsistently using condoms, fear of sexual violence, mistrust of partners, feeling of fear of vulnerability to HIV whenever they had sex and survival concerns. Migrant women’s adoption of safe sex was limited by their circumstances and strategies of risk management and in particular their biases in assumptions about their partners’ sexual histories. This exposes them to the vulnerabilities of HIV/AIDS. Thematic analysis was used to interpret the data.

This document is submitted in partial fulfilment for the degree: Master of Architecture [Professional] at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa, in the year 2014. / No matter the reasons for the birth of a city, water sits at the very heart ensuring a healthy working population. Johannesburg is one of the only cities in the world that has no major water source of its own and as a result has its water pumped uphill from the Vaal Dam into the city. At the same time the city faces a crisis that is based on both the supply and demand for water. In South Africa, an already water stressed country, it is predicted that precipitation will reduce over the next century, reducing runoff and the supply of fresh water together with demand eventually over taking supply. Through rethinking how the inner city of Johannesburg deals with the saving, purifying and redistribution of its available surface water, the idea of water infrastructure can become something more than a subconscious operation controlled from a far off location and pumped unsustainably back into the city, and more like a series of upgraded machines dispersed about the city within localized contexts, supplementing the existing vital operations on a very obvious and conscious level in order to protect its populations by better protecting it’s most important resource of all. Located within the Maboneng Precinct and more specifically located over a channel of water that becomes the Braamfontein Spruit, this thesis aims at designing a building that will incorporate a water treatment facility together with research laboratories to purify grey water to a standard that is usable for most needs including drinking. Water however does not exist by itself when placed within the context of any environment that has an established infrastructural system. It exists together with the many various machines and pipes hidden from our everyday lives; they are the subconscious networks of the city’s mind, constantly working in the back(under)ground to maintain a reliable flow and quality while the populations go about their conscious, daily functions. The aim is twofold; firstly to show how developing technologies can be experimented on a smaller neighbour-hood scale in order to encourage the development of new thinking and secondly, by developing a Water treatment facility and laboratory coupled with daily social functions as well as offices sited in an urban environment, I hope to show that infrastructural projects that are usually located on the outskirts of cities, away from every day activity, can enhance the civic quality of an urban space. With every system becoming more reliant on technology, water needs to be seen not only as an entity that exists within the natural cycles of the planet, but one that also exists very much within the mechanized systems of the city’s infrastructure, with its availability relying heavily on those systems that manage it as well as the daily social functions that hinge off of it.

Rapid migration of people to the urban areas of developing countries resulted in a shortage of housing and the location of people in poor housing and unhealthy environments. Studies have shown that people who live in poor housing are at increased risk of exposure to the determinants of respiratory diseases. Objective: This study investigated the influence of housing conditions on respiratory disease in selected low cost housing settlements in Johannesburg, South Africa. Methodology: Secondary data analysis based on the Health, Environment and Development (HEAD) cross-sectional study were used to explore housing conditions in relation to respiratory health. Results: Black African households comprised (77%) the major population group in the study. The overall mean number of people per household was five with household size ranging from 1 to 22 people permanently living in the household. Most of the households (48%) had an average monthly income of R1001 to R2000. The self reported household prevalence of asthma was highest among households in Riverlea (21%). Households in Riverlea had reported higher levels of asthma 33% relative to households in Bertrams. Hairdressing activities within dwellings increased the risk of asthma (OR: 2.89, 95% CI 1.46-5.73). Tuberculosis was associated with household size (OR 0.9, 95% CI 0.79 – 0.99) and smoking (OR 0.4 CI 0.12 - 0.96) in the univariate analysis. However in the multivariate analysis there was no significant association between tuberculosis with household size (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.80 - 1.05) or smoking (OR 0.03, 95% CI 0.12 – 1.00). Conclusion: In this study housing quality was an important determinant of respiratory health. More intervention strategies need to be employed to improve the living environment. These include increasing awareness and education to the public and other sectors, source reduction and more guidelines for healthy housing. Finally, more research on housing and health is needed to determine the effect of housing on health.

Research report submitted to the School of Architecture and Planning, University of the Witwatersrand, in the fulfilment of the requirement for the Masters of Architecture (Professional). / Thesis (M.Arch. (Professional))--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, 2016 / A clinic is a uniquely positioned function in a community. It can become the heart of an area, integrating a large range of functions with and for the public. Whether it be through interactions with business, police, artists or the community, all parties can benefit from the interactions. A redeveloping inner city area, especially one undergoing increasing levels of social uprooting, such as New Doornfontein, can benefit greatly from the community reinforcement and rebuilding that a healthcare facility can provide. With the negative impact of gentrification visible, and a drive towards potential social unsustainability in the area, a need for a centralised community driven scheme is apparent. The brief of the project called for a socially sustainable adaptive reuse healthcare-based scheme situated on a series of industrial sites in New Doornfontein. The area has been used by industry for 85 years, where currently businesses continue to operate. However, New Doornfontein has been undergoing a change, with existing industry becoming run down and abandoned, and the expansion of the new Maboneng phase taking over. Residential density is increasing, creating a demand for more social-based facilities such as healthcare and education. / EM2017

Informal street trading has played a role in the decline of the inner city. In restoring the inner city to its splendor and attracting people plus investments back into it, there has been an acknowledgement of informal street trading and a move to organise the activity. The City of Johannesburg has taken action towards dealing with informal street trading within the CBD by having trading and non-trading zones, constructing markets and providing stalls along pavements in busy streets from where traders can sell. This study was carried out as a response to the major issue at hand of cleaning up the city and ridding the streets of informal traders and only letting them trade in a controlled manner preferably in enclosed markets. While not dwelling on matters of whether regulating traders is good or bad, the main purpose of the study was to probe into the systemisation of informal street trading in the CBD, further investigating the alternative of a street market as that which can be done in other parts of the inner city as a means of keeping the vibrancy of the city through the provision of minimal infrastructure. Hence, this study explored the functionality of a street market plus certain issues pertaining to informal street trading in terms of what is being done in regulating the activity, whether trading permits are being issued and whether traders are more secure trading from designated trading areas. The outcomes were then used to outline any lessons learned from the case study that can in turn be applied or be used as an insight to other parts of the inner city. In analysing informal street trading in the inner city and Kerk Street, street market it was shown that the provision of minimal infrastructure through a street market enables informal street trading to be controlled and managed in a well organised open environment while maintaining a vibrant area in which both traders and passer-bys are able to interact.

In the developing world, child care institutions often involve more complexity than is typically reflected by the word “orphanage.” In many instances, children do not fit the widespread definition of an orphan as one with with deceased parents. Oftentimes, institutions play a partial role in a child’s development by contributing towards childcare in collaboration with a relative, an ill parent, or nearby kin. In South Africa, the need and complexity surrounding the role of child care institutions is further amplified by the region’s longstanding HIV/AIDS epidemic. Through a primarily ethnographic study, I sought to understand and relay the nuances of a child care center in Hillbrow, an urban neighborhood in central Johannesburg known for its crime and gang proliferation. Through the developmental stages of intake and early childhood, middle childhood, and late adolesence and outward transition, I explored how children overcome traumatic pasts with the help of the center, how the center struggles with the material burdens of providing to children with a wide array of needs, and how the process of transitioning into adulthood is handled by the children and their caretakers. In conclusion, I explore the non-negotiable elements of the center’s approach to child care and make further recommendations for other institutions in a similar context as well as future academic research.