No description available.

As a central tenet of falsificationism, Karl Popper holds that all possible scientific theories individually have a probability equal to zero. Popper’s position rests upon the Principle of Indifference, the equiprobability of mutually exclusive outcomes, to derive this zero probability. In this paper, I will illustrate that the Principle of Indifference fails to compute objective probabilities in cases in which an epistemic agent faces ignorance. Prior to experience, there is no sufficient reason to prefer any probability distribution to any other; yet, the Principle of Indifference implies a preference for a uniform probability distribution. Distribution preference is determined by the relevant experience and rational expectations of epistemic agents. Relevant experience is defined by observations and other sense experience regarding the relevant trial. Rational expectations represents the non-arbitrarity of distribution preference. Without rational expectations, the distribution preference is arbitrary even when informed by experience. If an agent lacks relevant experience, then any distribution preference is arbitrary; however, if an agent possesses relevant experience, then the Principle of Indifference does not apply. A rejection of the Principle of Indifference undermines the necessity of zero probabilities for scientific theories in which case Popper’s conclusions of falsificationism do not follow. Objective probability, then, understood within the logical interpretation, is a problematic notion.

A presente tese de doutoramento é composta de três ensaios independentes (ainda que complementares) sobre a História do Pensamento Econômico, mais especificamente, da Macroeconomia. O primeiro ensaio - \"Uma Breve História sobre a Abordagem de Desequilíbrio na Macroeconomia\" - é uma versão revista e ampliada do artigo apresentado no XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia da ANPEC em 2010 (Uma Breve História sobre a Abordagem de Desequilíbrio na Economia). Nossa argumentação vai de encontro às interpretações de Romer (1989) e Mankiw (2005) sobre a compreensão histórica daquele episódio, como também a hipótese levantada por Backhouse & Boianovsky (2005) sobre o fracasso da Macroeconomia do Desequilíbrio. O segundo ensaio se chama \"Uma Análise Histórica (e Retórica) do Discurso Doutrinário de Robert E. Lucas Jr.\". Se no primeiro ensaio argumentamos que parte do \"fracasso\" da Abordagem de Desequilíbrio deveu-se ao surgimento de um método entendido como superior pela maior parte dos economistas (o método de Lucas), neste investigamos o conteúdo daqueles artigos em que Lucas busca convencer os leitores da superioridade do seu método não a partir da comparação dos resultados obtidos por seu modelo em comparação a uma estrutura alternativa, mas sim com uma retórica polemista, fazendo uso de uma série de estratagemas retóricos. Nossa intenção é checar a validade de algumas de suas teses históricas e teóricas, bem como fazer um escrutínio dos expedientes retóricos utilizados pelo autor. O terceiro ensaio - \"Tese da Ancestralidade, Reinvenção da Tradição ou Superação Positiva? Uma Investigação sobre a \"Macroeconomia\" anterior a Keynes e as Causas do Sucesso da Teoria Geral\" - é derivada do segundo ensaio. Partimos da contraposição de hipóteses históricas de dois grandes autores da Macroeconomia sobre o estado da teoria \"macroeconômica\" anterior a Keynes, e as causas do sucesso da Teoria Geral. De um lado, Robert Lucas trata a Macroeconomia fundada por Keynes como um desvio na tradição equilibrista das análises de flutuação, cujo sucesso foi um \'feliz acidente histórico\', provocado principalmente por fatores alheios as vontades e até as simpatias de Keynes. De outro, Olivier Blanchard argumenta que o que havia antes de Keynes era uma grande diversidade de métodos e ausência de um aparato hegemônico, e o sucesso de Keynes deveu-se exclusivamente aos avanços teóricos e metodológicos apresentados naquela obra. / This PhD thesis contains three independent (although complementary) essays on the History of Economic Thought, more specifically on Macroeconomics History. The first essay - A Brief History of the Disequilibrium Approach in Macroeconomics - is a revised and expanded version of paper presented at the XXXVIII Meeting of ANPEC. Our argumentation challenges Romer (1989) and Mankiw (2005) interpretations about that episode. We also disagree (at some level) with Backhouse & Boianovsky (2005) hypothesis about the so-called \"failure\" of Non-Market-Clearing Approach. The second essay - A Historical (and Rhetorical) Analysis of Robert E. Lucas Junior\'s Doctrinaire Speech - is still a work in progress. If the first essay we argue that part of the \"failure\" of Disequilibrium Approach was due to the emergence of a method perceived as superior by most economists (lucasian method), here we investigate the content of those articles where Lucas seeks to persuade its readers of the superiority of his method not from the scrutiny of the results obtained by a specific model in comparison to an alternative structure, but mainly through a polemicist rhetoric. Our intention is to check the validity of some of its historical and theoretical arguments, and make a scrutiny of rhetorical expedients used by the author. The third essay - Ancestry Thesis, Reinvention of a Tradition or Cumulative Progress? A Research on \"Macroeconomics\" before Keynes and some Speculation about the causes of General Theory\'s Success\" - is derived from the second paper. We start from the juxtaposition of historical hypotheses of two great authors about the state\'s theory of \"macroeconomic\" before Keynes, and the causes of the success of the General Theory. On one hand, Robert Lucas argues that Macroeconomics as developed by Keynes was a deviation in the tradition of equilibrist fluctuation analysis, whose success was a fortunate historical accident. On the other, Olivier Blanchard argues that what was before Keynes was a great diversity of methods and the absence of a hegemonic apparatus, and the success of Keynes was due exclusively to theoretical and methodological advances made in that work.

A presente tese de doutoramento é composta de três ensaios independentes (ainda que complementares) sobre a História do Pensamento Econômico, mais especificamente, da Macroeconomia. O primeiro ensaio - \"Uma Breve História sobre a Abordagem de Desequilíbrio na Macroeconomia\" - é uma versão revista e ampliada do artigo apresentado no XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia da ANPEC em 2010 (Uma Breve História sobre a Abordagem de Desequilíbrio na Economia). Nossa argumentação vai de encontro às interpretações de Romer (1989) e Mankiw (2005) sobre a compreensão histórica daquele episódio, como também a hipótese levantada por Backhouse & Boianovsky (2005) sobre o fracasso da Macroeconomia do Desequilíbrio. O segundo ensaio se chama \"Uma Análise Histórica (e Retórica) do Discurso Doutrinário de Robert E. Lucas Jr.\". Se no primeiro ensaio argumentamos que parte do \"fracasso\" da Abordagem de Desequilíbrio deveu-se ao surgimento de um método entendido como superior pela maior parte dos economistas (o método de Lucas), neste investigamos o conteúdo daqueles artigos em que Lucas busca convencer os leitores da superioridade do seu método não a partir da comparação dos resultados obtidos por seu modelo em comparação a uma estrutura alternativa, mas sim com uma retórica polemista, fazendo uso de uma série de estratagemas retóricos. Nossa intenção é checar a validade de algumas de suas teses históricas e teóricas, bem como fazer um escrutínio dos expedientes retóricos utilizados pelo autor. O terceiro ensaio - \"Tese da Ancestralidade, Reinvenção da Tradição ou Superação Positiva? Uma Investigação sobre a \"Macroeconomia\" anterior a Keynes e as Causas do Sucesso da Teoria Geral\" - é derivada do segundo ensaio. Partimos da contraposição de hipóteses históricas de dois grandes autores da Macroeconomia sobre o estado da teoria \"macroeconômica\" anterior a Keynes, e as causas do sucesso da Teoria Geral. De um lado, Robert Lucas trata a Macroeconomia fundada por Keynes como um desvio na tradição equilibrista das análises de flutuação, cujo sucesso foi um \'feliz acidente histórico\', provocado principalmente por fatores alheios as vontades e até as simpatias de Keynes. De outro, Olivier Blanchard argumenta que o que havia antes de Keynes era uma grande diversidade de métodos e ausência de um aparato hegemônico, e o sucesso de Keynes deveu-se exclusivamente aos avanços teóricos e metodológicos apresentados naquela obra. / This PhD thesis contains three independent (although complementary) essays on the History of Economic Thought, more specifically on Macroeconomics History. The first essay - A Brief History of the Disequilibrium Approach in Macroeconomics - is a revised and expanded version of paper presented at the XXXVIII Meeting of ANPEC. Our argumentation challenges Romer (1989) and Mankiw (2005) interpretations about that episode. We also disagree (at some level) with Backhouse & Boianovsky (2005) hypothesis about the so-called \"failure\" of Non-Market-Clearing Approach. The second essay - A Historical (and Rhetorical) Analysis of Robert E. Lucas Junior\'s Doctrinaire Speech - is still a work in progress. If the first essay we argue that part of the \"failure\" of Disequilibrium Approach was due to the emergence of a method perceived as superior by most economists (lucasian method), here we investigate the content of those articles where Lucas seeks to persuade its readers of the superiority of his method not from the scrutiny of the results obtained by a specific model in comparison to an alternative structure, but mainly through a polemicist rhetoric. Our intention is to check the validity of some of its historical and theoretical arguments, and make a scrutiny of rhetorical expedients used by the author. The third essay - Ancestry Thesis, Reinvention of a Tradition or Cumulative Progress? A Research on \"Macroeconomics\" before Keynes and some Speculation about the causes of General Theory\'s Success\" - is derived from the second paper. We start from the juxtaposition of historical hypotheses of two great authors about the state\'s theory of \"macroeconomic\" before Keynes, and the causes of the success of the General Theory. On one hand, Robert Lucas argues that Macroeconomics as developed by Keynes was a deviation in the tradition of equilibrist fluctuation analysis, whose success was a fortunate historical accident. On the other, Olivier Blanchard argues that what was before Keynes was a great diversity of methods and the absence of a hegemonic apparatus, and the success of Keynes was due exclusively to theoretical and methodological advances made in that work.

Nous démontrons qu’il existe une récurrence dans la pensée de Keynes en matière de fluctuations, à savoir que l’investissement est le facteur majeur guidant les fluctuations économiques. La première partie explore les écrits datant d’avant 1925 environ, en analysant les thématiques et problèmes qui en émergent et qui anticipent ceux du Treatise on Money (1930). La seconde partie se focalise sur le Treatise à proprement parler, ainsi que la transition de cet ouvrage à la Théorie Générale de l’Emploi, de l’Intérêt et de la Monnaie (1936) suite à la crise économique du début des années 1930. La troisième et dernière partie aborde ainsi la réponse apportée par la Théorie Générale à ce problème, en démontrant que la théorie de l’investissement qui y est développée est au coeur de son analyse des fluctuations et cycles économiques. / The dissertation argues that there is a recurrence in Keynes’s thought as regards economic fluctuations: investment is considered as the primary factor driving these fluctuations. The first part explains how, in the author’s early writings, some topics and problems that would be discussed in the Treatise on Money (1930) would emerge out of an interest for monetary instability. The second part focuses on the Treatise as such, but also on the transition between this book and the General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) following the economic crisis of the Great Depression. Finally the third part discusses the answer given by the General Theory to this problem, by showing that investment as understood and explained in this book is at the center of an analysis of economic fluctuations and business cycles.

Unemployment is a major problem in South Africa that has the potential to erode the democratic future of this country. In general, the main economic approaches that deal with unemployment are informed by neo-liberal and neo-Marxist perspectives. The problem is that these perspectives are in a dialectical tension with each other and can increase conflict and unemployment. This dialectical tension is reflected in language that can be informed by the reductionist aspects of the ontologies perspectives. The purpose of this study is to inquire whether the deconstruction of Jacques Derrida can provide an alternative perspective for the dialectical tension present between neo-liberal and neo-Marxist approaches that are being used to address the problem of unemployment in the South African context. In this regard, the critique of the language of reductionist ontologies by deconstruction provides a means to move beyond the tension between neo-liberalism and neo-Marxism, because deconstruction uncovers the ambivalence of the language of both perspectives, but without constructing a new synthesis that may result in new reductions of reality. This reduction of reality is evident in the use of “growth momentum”, referred to by Rodrik (2008:3), as a suggestion of a neo-liberal solution to the problem of unemployment. Growth is a reference to natural processes that can become a means to hide the mechanical structure of the economic cycle, which again has the potential to restrict growth through extreme forms of inequality and greed. Neo-Marxist perspectives utilise references to “equality” and “government intervention” to deal with injustice. This can result in extreme forms of control that diminish human dignity. The role of deconstruction for the language of economic theory is illustrated by Jacques Derrida’s use of the word “Gift”. A gift is ambivalent because it contains a tension between self-interest and justice, which Jacques Derrida refers to as “hospitable narcissism”. It will be argued that this ambivalence is present in the language of the economic theory of John Maynard Keynes, which may provide important sustainable economic perspectives for dealing with unemployment in South Africa, thus providing a practical application of hospitable narcissism. In this regard, deconstruction is helpful to develop sensitivity to the language used and the ontologies that inform the language when addressing unemployment. The gift advances human dignity through responsible governance that is critical of 5 uncontrolled self-interest, greed and corruption. This happens through engagement with unemployed people – an act of accountability. In this regard, the study aims at researching the following goals: Firstly, it aims to argue that unemployment in general is perpetuated by the dialectical tension between neo-liberalism and neo-Marxism; secondly, the deconstruction of language provides a critical perspective on reality that opens new perspectives for discussing the possibility of sustainable economic language, with reference to the word “gift”; thirdly, an aspect of “the gift” is present in the economic theory of Keynes that may provide sustainable perspectives for unemployment in the South African context. In order to reach these goals, a praxis methodology is followed in which the practical reality of unemployment and the dialectical tension between neo-liberalism and neo-Marxism in South Africa are the points of departure. The implication is that the economic reality of unemployment and the political tension between neo-liberalism and neo-Marxism form the basis for further philosophical reflection. To do this, a deconstructive approach is followed as a means to explore the ontology of neo-liberalism and neo-Marxism. This is followed by a deconstructive reading of the economic theory that John Maynard Keynes follows in order to provide alternative perspectives for the problem of unemployment in South Africa. The following resources were consulted in the research: Library catalogue of the North-West University, research articles through the database of Ebsco-host, statistics of unemployment from Statistics South Africa, and newspaper articles. This mini-dissertation is presented in the form of an article, in accordance with rule A.7.2.5 of the “General Academic Rules” of the North-West University. The article will be presented for publication in the journal Acta Academica, at a later stage. In this regard, the guidelines for publication of this journal are included in the appendix. The article contains the following subdivisions: 1. Introduction 2. Neo-liberalism and neo-Marxism: Contemporary research of unemployment in South Africa 3. Deconstruction and “the gift” 4. John Maynard Keynes and unemployment 5. “The gift” and unemployment in the South African context 6. Conclusion In the next section, the research article is presented with a bibliography and a summary of the article in English and Afrikaans, in accordance with the prescriptions of Acta Academica. In the final sections of the document some general conclusions, the limitations of the study and recommendations for further research, are presented. This is followed by the appendix with prescriptions for research articles submitted to Acta Academica. / Thesis (MPhil)--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013.

Unemployment is a major problem in South Africa that has the potential to erode the democratic future of this country. In general, the main economic approaches that deal with unemployment are informed by neo-liberal and neo-Marxist perspectives. The problem is that these perspectives are in a dialectical tension with each other and can increase conflict and unemployment. This dialectical tension is reflected in language that can be informed by the reductionist aspects of the ontologies perspectives. The purpose of this study is to inquire whether the deconstruction of Jacques Derrida can provide an alternative perspective for the dialectical tension present between neo-liberal and neo-Marxist approaches that are being used to address the problem of unemployment in the South African context. In this regard, the critique of the language of reductionist ontologies by deconstruction provides a means to move beyond the tension between neo-liberalism and neo-Marxism, because deconstruction uncovers the ambivalence of the language of both perspectives, but without constructing a new synthesis that may result in new reductions of reality. This reduction of reality is evident in the use of “growth momentum”, referred to by Rodrik (2008:3), as a suggestion of a neo-liberal solution to the problem of unemployment. Growth is a reference to natural processes that can become a means to hide the mechanical structure of the economic cycle, which again has the potential to restrict growth through extreme forms of inequality and greed. Neo-Marxist perspectives utilise references to “equality” and “government intervention” to deal with injustice. This can result in extreme forms of control that diminish human dignity. The role of deconstruction for the language of economic theory is illustrated by Jacques Derrida’s use of the word “Gift”. A gift is ambivalent because it contains a tension between self-interest and justice, which Jacques Derrida refers to as “hospitable narcissism”. It will be argued that this ambivalence is present in the language of the economic theory of John Maynard Keynes, which may provide important sustainable economic perspectives for dealing with unemployment in South Africa, thus providing a practical application of hospitable narcissism. In this regard, deconstruction is helpful to develop sensitivity to the language used and the ontologies that inform the language when addressing unemployment. The gift advances human dignity through responsible governance that is critical of 5 uncontrolled self-interest, greed and corruption. This happens through engagement with unemployed people – an act of accountability. In this regard, the study aims at researching the following goals: Firstly, it aims to argue that unemployment in general is perpetuated by the dialectical tension between neo-liberalism and neo-Marxism; secondly, the deconstruction of language provides a critical perspective on reality that opens new perspectives for discussing the possibility of sustainable economic language, with reference to the word “gift”; thirdly, an aspect of “the gift” is present in the economic theory of Keynes that may provide sustainable perspectives for unemployment in the South African context. In order to reach these goals, a praxis methodology is followed in which the practical reality of unemployment and the dialectical tension between neo-liberalism and neo-Marxism in South Africa are the points of departure. The implication is that the economic reality of unemployment and the political tension between neo-liberalism and neo-Marxism form the basis for further philosophical reflection. To do this, a deconstructive approach is followed as a means to explore the ontology of neo-liberalism and neo-Marxism. This is followed by a deconstructive reading of the economic theory that John Maynard Keynes follows in order to provide alternative perspectives for the problem of unemployment in South Africa. The following resources were consulted in the research: Library catalogue of the North-West University, research articles through the database of Ebsco-host, statistics of unemployment from Statistics South Africa, and newspaper articles. This mini-dissertation is presented in the form of an article, in accordance with rule A.7.2.5 of the “General Academic Rules” of the North-West University. The article will be presented for publication in the journal Acta Academica, at a later stage. In this regard, the guidelines for publication of this journal are included in the appendix. The article contains the following subdivisions: 1. Introduction 2. Neo-liberalism and neo-Marxism: Contemporary research of unemployment in South Africa 3. Deconstruction and “the gift” 4. John Maynard Keynes and unemployment 5. “The gift” and unemployment in the South African context 6. Conclusion In the next section, the research article is presented with a bibliography and a summary of the article in English and Afrikaans, in accordance with the prescriptions of Acta Academica. In the final sections of the document some general conclusions, the limitations of the study and recommendations for further research, are presented. This is followed by the appendix with prescriptions for research articles submitted to Acta Academica. / Thesis (MPhil)--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2013.

No description available.

Nous démontrons qu'il existe une récurrence dans la pensée de Keynes en matière de fluctuations, à savoir que l'investissement est le facteur majeur guidant les fluctuations économiques. La première partie explore les écrits datant d'avant 1925 environ, en analysant les thématiques et problèmes qui en émergent et qui anticipent ceux du Treatise on Money (1930). La seconde partie se focalise sur le Treatise à proprement parler, ainsi que la transition de cet ouvrage à la Théorie Générale de l'Emploi, de l'Intérêt et de la Monnaie (1936) suite à la crise économique du début des années 1930. La troisième et dernière partie aborde ainsi la réponse apportée par la Théorie Générale à ce problème, en démontrant que la théorie de l'investissement qui y est développée est au coeur de son analyse des fluctuations et cycles économiques.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:33:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ALMEIDA_Rafael_Galvao_2014.pdf: 727295 bytes, checksum: 401216b931951eb89ddf300efa7af38d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-26 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / This work had as its objective, by the means of a historic reconstruction of the history of econometrics, with emphasis on its business cycle models, to introduce the concept of performativity to the analysis of economic doctrines. The performativity argues that the line between theory and practice is thinner than it is thought, i. e., that in certain circumstances, the economic theory do not only describe the world, but it can influence it, it can make the agents change their behavior to conform to its predictions. For this, using the Keynes-Tinbergen debate as a background, we sought for evidence that showed the performative effects of the adoption of econometric methods onto the canon of the economic theory, once that studies showed performative effects with models used in the financial market. We conclude that, by the evaluation of the debate, its conclusion made possible emerge an econometric theory that, consequentially, could have performative effects in the economy. / Este trabalho teve como objetivo, por meio de uma reconstrução da história da econometria, envolvendo modelos do ciclo econômico, introduzir o conceito de performatividade à análise das doutrinas econômicas. A performatividade argumenta que a linha entre teoria e prática é muito mais tênue do que se imagina, isto é, de que em certas circunstâncias, a teoria econômica não apenas descreve o mundo, mas pode influenciá-lo, pode fazer com que os agentes modifiquem seu comportamento para se adequar às previsões da teoria. Para tal, utilizou-se como pano de fundo o debate Keynes-Tinbergen, buscou-se encontrar evidências que houve efeitos de performatividade na adoção de métodos econométricos ao cânone da teoria econômica, uma vez que estudos indicaram que certos níveis de performatividade ocorreram com modelos utilizados no mercado financeiro. Concluiu-se, pela avaliação do debate, que o desfecho possibilitou uma teoria da econometria que viria a se tornar dominante e, consequentemente, uma candidata a ter efeitos performativos na economia.