O objetivo desse trabalho é responder quatro perguntas centrais a partir da literatura sobre os controles de capitais no Brasil: Os controles de capitais foram e têm sido eficazes no Brasil? O Brasil tem seguido o seqüenciamento proposto pelo FMI ao adotar controles de capitais? Os controles de capitais no Brasil são endógenos? A liberalização econômica favorece o crescimento econômico de um país? Para tanto, foram estudados outros casos de adoção de controles de capitais em diferentes economias, a partir da literatura existente, e a experiência brasileira com controles de capitais. A literatura empírica foi analisada com o intuito de verificar se os controles de capitais são eficazes para objetivos de política econômica ou se deve sustentar o processo de liberalização financeira, como defendido por alguns economistas mais ortodoxos. / The main goal of this work is to answer four key questions related to the capital controls in Brazil from a literature perspective: Were capital controls effective, and have they been, in Brazil? Has Brazil followed the sequencing proposed by IMF when adopting capital controls? Are capital controls in Brazil endogenous? Does economic liberalization promote economic growth to a country? For that, experiences of capital controls adoption in different economies were studied, using the international literature, as well as the Brazilian experience with capital controls. The empirical literature has been analyzed in order to verify if capital controls are effective for the main goals of economic politics or if a financial liberalization should be applied, as supported by some orthodox economists.

Este estudo avalia o impacto da liberalização comercial entre Brasil e China sobre o comércio, produção, preços, investimento, poupança e emprego. O objetivo da análise é identificar a existência de uma oportunidade de comércio para o Brasil que viabilize um maior crescimento, incremente as exportações brasileiras e reduza o desemprego. A hipótese principal é a existência de ganhos de bem estar no comércio com a China. O modelo utilizado é o GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS PROJECT (GTAP) com 10 regiões, 10 produtos, 5 fatores, com retornos constantes de escala e competição perfeita nas atividades de produção. Destacam-se na análise os produtos agropecuários. Utilizam-se três fechamentos macroeconômicos (closure) para avaliar separadamente alguns agregados: a configuração padrão dos modelos CGE (preço da poupança endógeno e pleno emprego); preço da poupança exógeno; e desemprego. Conclui-se que pode haver benefícios para os dois países com o acordo. / This study evaluates the impact of trade liberalization between Brazil and China on trade, production, pricing, investment, savings and jobs. The purpose of the analysis is to identify the existence of a trade opportunity for Brazil that allows for further growth, enhance Brazilian exports and reduce unemployment. The main hypothesis is the existence of welfare gains from trade with China. The model used is the GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS PROJECT (GTAP) with 10 regions, 10 products, 5 factors, with constant returns of scale and perfect competition in production activities. Impacts on agricultural products are emphasized in the analysis. Three different macroeconomic closures are used: the default setting of CGE models (endogenous savings price and full employment), exogenous price of savings, and unemployment. At last were observed benefits to the two countries of the agreement.

This paper analyzes the effects of the liberalization and/or exclusion of the agricultural sector in the integration processes in which are immersed the Latin American Countries from the comparison of four different ways from liberalization. The central objective consists of determining if it is necessary that this sector receives a special treatment in comparison with the rest of economic sectors, or if the complete liberalization is more/less favorable than the exclusion of the agriculture in the integration processes. We used a static CGE model, multisectorial, multicountry of short and long term that has a predominantly agricultural aggregation. Between the main results we found that although the four types of liberalization generate positive results in the Latin American economies; for Peru, Venezuela, Ecuador-Bolivia, Argentina and Uruguay the multilateral strategy that excludes the agricultural sector generates greater benefits than the net tariff liberalization. Despite if we compare the tariff liberalization versus the total liberalization (one that includes export subsidies elimination and band of prices), all the countries with exception of Peru and Venezuela register greater benefits with the total liberalization. / El presente documento analiza los efectos de la liberalización y/o exclusión del sector agrícola en los procesos de integración en los que se encuentran inmersos los países latinoamericanos a partir de la comparación de cuatro diferentes modos de liberalización. El objetivo central consiste en determinar si es o no necesario que este sector reciba un tratamiento especial en comparación con el resto de sectores económicos, o si es más favorable la liberalización completa o la exclusión del agro en los procesos de integración. Para ello, empleamos como herramienta un modelo EGC estático, multipaís y multisectorial de corto y largo plazo, el cual cuenta con una desagregación predominantemente agrícola. Entre los principales resultados encontramos que si bien los cuatro tipos de liberalización generan resultados positivos en las economías latinoamericanas, para el Perú, Venezuela, Ecuador-Bolivia, Argentina y Uruguay la estrategia multilateral que excluye al sector agrícola genera mayores beneficios que la liberalización netamente arancelaria. No obstante, si se compara la liberalización netamente arancelaria versus la total (que incluye eliminación de los subsidios a la exportación y franja de precios), todos los países, con excepción de Perú y Venezuela, registran mayores beneficios con la liberalización total.

This paper deals with Mexico’s economic history from 1982 early crisis and 1994 late one. It analysis the transit of an import substitution model and state oriented economic policy to an open market economy in a close relationship to U.S. economy and free trade agreement. This transit meant also a change in politics, after many years of PRI’s dominance. It also aim to advice about the so-called «demographic bonus», provided a slowing down of the birth rate and its consequence on further employment needs / Este trabajo tiene como objetivo la historia económica de México desde la temprana crisis de 1982 y la severa de 1994. Analiza el tránsito de un modelo de sustitución de importaciones y una política económica orientada desde el Estado hacia unaeconomía de mercado abierto en cercana relación con la economía estadounidense y los acuerdos de libre comercio. Ese tránsito también significó un cambio en la política después de muchos años de dominio del PRI. También advierte la importancia del denominado bono demográfico, derivado de la caída de la tasa de natalidad y sus consecuencias para la necesidad de generar empleo.

The present article focuses on the role of APEC in the consolidation of Peruvian Foreign Economic policy. It analyzes if this Forum has represented some type of influence and in what way it has become evident. This study shows that APEC, with the leadership of the United States, has exerted a relevant external influence, first, channeling the liberalization principles of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and then, through the deepening of its own agenda that institutionalized a bilateral and multilateral opening strategy after the Asian crisis. / El presente artículo se centra en el rol ejercido por APEC en el proceso de consolidación de la Política Exterior Económica Peruana (PEEP). En tal sentido, analiza si este Foro ha representado algún tipo de influencia y de qué manera se ha hecho evidente. Este estudio demuestra que APEC, vinculado al liderazgo de los Estados Unidos, ha ejercido una influencia externa relevante, primero, canalizando los principios de liberalización de la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC), y luego, a través de la profundización de una agenda propia que institucionalizó una estrategia bilateral y multilateral de apertura tras la crisis asiática.

O objetivo desta dissertação é retomar a controvérsia em torno dos efeitos da liberalização comercial sobre o mercado de trabalho brasileiro, em especial os diferenciais de salários entre trabalhadores qualificados e não qualificados na indústria de transformação em 1995 e 1999. Após uma adaptação da decomposição de Oaxaca-Blinder (OB), encontramos evidências, para o Brasil como um todo e para a região metropolitana de São Paulo, de que o diferencial de salário aumentou, em benefício dos trabalhadores qualificados. Considerando a hipótese de que o Brasil é um país com abundância de trabalho não qualificado e intensivo neste fator, este resultado é oposto à premissa teórica do modelo Heckscher-Ohlin e Stolper-Samuelson (HOS) e suas variantes, de que a abertura de um país em desenvolvimento, ou intensivo em trabalho não qualificado, tende a diminuir a desigualdade. Do outro lado, encontramos evidências para a região metropolitana de Recife, de que o diferencial salarial entre trabalhadores qualificados e não qualificados diminuiu após a liberalização comercial, corroborando com a premissa teórica do modelo HOS e suas variantes. Entretanto, este resultado não deve, evidentemente, ser estendido para o Brasil, ilustrando assim diferenças regionais e estruturais não negligenciáveis do mercado de trabalho por região da Federação. / The objective of this MA Dissertation was to take up again the controversy of the effects of trade liberalization in Brazilian labor market, specially the wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers in the industry in 1995 and 1999. After an adaptation of Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition (OB), it was found evidence in Brazil as a whole and in Sao Paulo metropolitan area, that wage differential increased for the benefit of skilled workers. On one hand, supposing that Brazil is an economy characterized by unskilled workers abundance which are intensively used, this result is contrary to the premise theory of Heckscher-Ohlin and Stolper-Samuelson (HOS) model and their variants that defends that trade liberalization in developing country, or unskilled worker intensive countries, has a tendency to reduce inequality. On the other hand, it was found evidence in Recife metropolitan area that wage differential between skilled and unskilled workers has reduced after trade liberalization, corroborating with the theory premise of HOS model and their variants. However, this result cannot be extended to Brazil, illustrating, therefore, its labor markets regional and structural differences.

A presente dissertação tem como objetivo analisar a liberalização dos serviços da aviação civil para o segmento internacional no Brasil e verificar como a autoridade reguladora poderia agir visando a incrementar o fluxo de passageiros. O estudo empírico inclui a estimação de uma equação gravitacional em que se observa de que maneira as cláusulas presentes nos acordos bilaterais influenciam na demanda por viagens internacionais. Além do aspecto restritivo contido nestes acordos, também são avaliadas o papel que as variáveis gravitacionais exercem na determinação do tráfego aéreo. Os resultados encontrados sinalizam que a permissão de mais lugares de pousos e decolagem no Brasil e que o relaxamento quanto à oferta de assentos e freqüências de vôos influenciam positivamente na demanda do setor. Destaca-se ainda que os sinais obtidos para os aspectos gravitacionais estão de acordo com o esperado. / This dissertation aims to analyze the liberalization of civil aviation for the international segment in Brazil and see how the authority regulator could act aimed at increasing the flow of passengers. The empirical study includes the estimation of a gravity equation in which one observes how the clauses contained in bilateral agreements influence the demand for international travel. Besides the restrictive aspect contained in these agreements, are also evaluated the role that variables play in determining the gravitational air traffic. The results indicate that allowing more seats for takeoff and landings in Brazil and that the relaxation on the supply of seats and flight frequencies have a positive influence on demand in the industry. It is noticeable that the signals obtained for the gravitational aspects are in line with expectations.

This dissertation studies the effects of external integration and internal liberalization on the economic geography within a country when regions within the country have different access to the world market. The first paper introduces internal geography into the Melitz (2003) model to examine how external and internal liberalizations affect the economic geography within a country. By dividing a country into a coastal region and an inland region, the model shows that trade leads the coastal region have a higher than proportional share of industry, and causes firms in the coastal region to be larger and more productive than firms in the inland region. Both external and internal liberalizations encourage industry agglomeration in the coastal region. However, external trade liberalization leads to firm divergence, and internal liberalization leads to firm convergence, between coastal and inland regions. This allows me to test the relative importance of internal and external liberalization. Using Chinese data from 1998 to 2007, I find that the manufacturing sector grew faster in the coastal region than in the inland region after the WTO accession in 2001. Firms also converged between coastal and inland regions, indicating that internal liberalization had stronger effects during this period. In the second paper, I document large economic discontinuities across the east/non-east provincial borders in China and argue that the border effects are largely due to preferential policies that give the east advantages in international trade and economic development. Using counties contiguous to the borders of 4 plain provinces, I find that manufacturing activities (output, employment, and export) increase abruptly from the west to the east of the borders. The counties in the east also have a lower share of agricultural population and a higher share of output by foreign firms. The economic discontinuities are larger for non-state sectors than for the state sector and are stronger in non-mountain regions than in mountain regions. The large economic discontinuities are unlikely to be explained by geographic and cultural differences across the borders, and can be accounted for by the policy differences between east and non-east provinces. I find that the openness level and the index of market liberalization can account for a large part of the east/non-east divide. In the third paper, I use the ending of the Multi-fiber Arrangement (MFA) to study the effects of an external trade liberalization on Chinese textile and clothing industry. After the Multi-fiber Arrangement ended in 2005, Chinese textile and clothing exports in products that faced quotas before experienced significant boom. The effects are stronger in the coastal region than in the inland region. Using distance to the seaport as a measure of world-market access, I show that the external trade liberalization (the quota removal) had larger effects on regions with better access to the world market. A further analysis of firm entry shows that the large adjustment of export after the expiration of the MFA was largely due to destination and product expansions by existing firms.

L’Etat du Mato Grosso amorce à peine son essor économique au moment où le Brésil décide de libéraliser son économie au début des années 1990. Le projet politico-économique né dans les années 1950, qui voulait occuper ce vaste territoire et en faire un grand bassin de production agricole, est encore inachevé en 1985. La libéralisation, malgré les risques qu’elle soulève, a eu au Mato Grosso un impact favorable sur la croissance économique. Elle a été impulsée par un exceptionnel développement de la production agricole et son insertion dans le commerce international, suite à l’expansion des superficies cultivées, à l’incorporation et à la diffusion du progrès technologique et au crédit rural. L’inflexion des politiques publiques vers la population la plus fragile est notoire du point de vue de la réorientation des budgets publics et des résultats enregistrés en matière de réforme agraire. La pérennité et l’équité du processus de croissance restent cependant encore incertaines. Le segment de l’agriculture familiale se trouve marginalisé dans l’économie agricole de l’Etat et son revenu se dégrade. La croissance économique de l’Etat est très sensible à la conjoncture internationale suite à son hyperspécialisation autour du complexe exportateur soja et très dépendante des financements hors canal bancaire traditionnel. Sa compétitivité future est conditionnée au développement d’infrastructures de transport et de stockage. Les indicateurs socio-économiques en milieu rural sont en nette amélioration et les inégalités se réduisent, mais ces résultats sont encore à confirmer dans la durée. La déforestation a été le prix à payer de la croissance agricole. Le traitement de la question environnementale, pour accompagner la dynamique de croissance, constitue un enjeu majeur. Notamment au moment où le Nord du Mato Grosso pourrait devenir un nouveau site d’agro-exportation en plein bassin amazonien, afin de maintenir la compétitivité-prix de la production et de favoriser sa diversification, et d´assurer la pérennité sociale et économique du processus de développement. / The Mato Grosso State’s economic development started shortly when Brazil decided to liberalize its economy in the early nineties. The political and economic project born in the fifties, aiming at occupying this vast territory and turning into an important agricultural production area, was still unachieved in 1985. In spite of the risks it brings, the liberalization has had a positive impact on the economic growth in Mato Grosso. It was stimulated by an exceptional development in agricultural production and its integration into the international trade, following the expansion of the cultivated lands, the adoption and the spread of the technological progress and the rural financings. The inclination of the public policies towards the most vulnerable population is visible through the new orientation of the public budgets and the recorded results of the land reform. The durability and the equity of the growth process still remain uncertain. The family agriculture segment is noticeable to be marginalized in the State rural economy, and its income is eroding. The economic growth of the State became very sensitive to the international conjuncture as a result of its over-specialization on the export soybean complex, and is strongly depending on the financing, out of the traditional banking system. The future competitiveness of the economy is linked with the development of transportation and storage infrastructures. The social and economic indicators in rural areas are improving sharply and the disparities are reducing, but these results are still to be confirmed in the longer term. Deforestation has been the price to pay for agriculture growth. The handling of the environmental issue, to accompany the dynamic of growth, constitutes a major stake. Especially at the time when the North of the Mato Grosso could become a new site for agricultural exports across the Amazonian basin, in order to maintain the price’s competitiveness of the production, to stimulate its diversification and to ensure the social and economic sustainability of the development process.

Notre thèse porte sur le rôle de la libéralisation des échanges extérieurs dans les mutations qui ont eu lieu sur le marché du travail dans les pays en développement, cas de la Tunisie. Notre analyse se décompose en deux parties, la première étudie les fondements théoriques et leurs validations empiriques de la relation entre l’ouverture commerciale et le marché de l’emploi. La deuxième étudie les effets de l’ouverture commerciale sur le marché du travail tunisien. Nous présentons le degré d’intégration de la Tunisie dans l’économie mondiale ainsi que les différentes réformes du marché du travail qui ont eu lieu après l’adoption du programme d’ajustement structurel et la mise en œuvre des accords de libre-échange. Dans notre étude nous estimons un modèle à deux équations portant sur l’emploi et le salaire. Notre estimation se base sur deux approches, l’une à deux dimensions, temps et secteurs, et l’autre portant seulement sur le temps. Les principaux résultats sont:- Les importations et les exportations sont les variables les moins signifiantes car elles ont un effet marginal sur la demande de travail. À l’inverse, la production et l’emploi retardé sont les variables les plus explicatives et cela sans spécificité sectorielle. - La détermination du salaire réel dépend des importations et des exportations qui ont des effets différents à court ou à long terme selon le type de secteur (exportable, importable et non échangeable). Par ailleurs, l’emploi ainsi que la productivité des travailleurs qualifiés et non qualifiés sont des variables explicatives qui peuvent avoir une spécification sectorielle. Quant à la production, elle intervient différemment selon les secteurs. / Our thesis focuses on the role of liberalization of foreign trade in the changes that have taken place in the labor market in developing countries, notably the case of Tunisia. Our analysis is divided into two parts, the first looks at the theoretical foundations of the link between trade liberalization and labor market and their empirical validation, and the second looks at the effects of trade opening on the Tunisian labor market. We present the degree of integration of Tunisia in the global economy and the various reforms of the labor market that occurred after the adoption of the structural adjustment program and the implementation of free trade agreements, particularly with the European Union. In our study we estimate a two-equation model on employment and salary. Our estimate is based on two approaches, one in two dimensions, time and sectors, and the other only looking at the time dimension. The main results may be summarized as follows:- Imports and exports are the least meaningful variables because they have a marginal effect on labor demand. Conversely, production and employment with a time lag are the more explanatory variables without sectoral specificity.- The determination of the salary level adjusted for inflation depends on imports and exports which have different effects in the short or long term depending on the sector (exportable, importable and non-tradable). Moreover, employment and productivity of skilled and unskilled workers are explanatory variables and may have a sectoral specification. As for production, it operates differently in different sectors.