This PhD thesis presents the spatio-temporal distribution of terrestrial carbon fluxes for the time period of 1982 to 2002 simulated by a combination of the process-based dynamic global vegetation model LPJ and a 21-year time series of global AVHRR-fPAR data (fPAR – fraction of photosynthetically active radiation). Assimilation of the satellite data into the model allows improved simulations of carbon fluxes on global as well as on regional scales. As it is based on observed data and includes agricultural regions, the model combined with satellite data produces more realistic carbon fluxes of net primary production (NPP), soil respiration, carbon released by fire and the net land-atmosphere flux than the potential vegetation model. It also produces a good fit to the interannual variability of the CO2 growth rate. Compared to the original model, the model with satellite data constraint produces generally smaller carbon fluxes than the purely climate-based stand-alone simulation of potential natural vegetation, now comparing better to literature estimates. The lower net fluxes are a result of a combination of several effects: reduction in vegetation cover, consideration of human influence and agricultural areas, an improved seasonality, changes in vegetation distribution and species composition. This study presents a way to assess terrestrial carbon fluxes and elucidates the processes contributing to interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon exchange. Process-based terrestrial modelling and satellite-observed vegetation data are successfully combined to improve estimates of vegetation carbon fluxes and stocks. As net ecosystem exchange is the most interesting and most sensitive factor in carbon cycle modelling and highly uncertain, the presented results complementary contribute to the current knowledge, supporting the understanding of the terrestrial carbon budget. / In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird anhand der Kombination eines dynamischen globalen Vegetationsmodells mit einer Zeitreihe von 21 Jahren optischer Satellitendaten eine realistische Abschätzung der terrestrischen Quellen und Senken von CO2 ermöglicht. Grundlage des hier vorgestellten neuen Modells stellt das dynamische globale Vegetationsmodell LPJ dar, ein prozessorientiertes Vegetationsmodell, das basierend auf ökophysiologischen Grundlagen die Vegetationsverteilung und -dynamik, Störungen (z.B. Feuer) und den Kohlenstoff- sowie den Wasserkreislauf modelliert. Die Kopplung des LPJ-DGVM erfolgte mit einer Zeitreihe globaler AVHRR-fPAR Daten (fPAR – Anteil photosynthetisch aktiver Strahlung), für den Zeitraum 1982 bis 2002 in einer räumlichen Auflösung von 0.5°. Als Ergebnis liegt nun eine globale raum-zeitliche Verteilung aller relevanten Kohlenstoffflüsse vor: Nettoprimärproduktion, Bodenrespiration, Nettoökosystemproduktion, durch Feuer und Ernte emittierter Kohlenstoff, sowie der in Biomasse und Boden gespeicherte Kohlenstoff. Verglichen mit dem Originalmodell haben sich durch die Einspeisung der Satellitendaten alle relevanten Kohlenstoffkomponenten verringert und zeigen nun bessere Übereinstimmung mit Literaturwerten. Die geringeren Kohlenstoffflüsse resultieren aus einer Kombination verschiedener Effekte: geringere Vegetationsbedeckung, Berücksichtigung der landwirtschaftlichen Nutzfläche, realistischere Abbildung der Saisonalität, Veränderung der Vegetationsverteilung und Verschiebung der Artenzusammensetzung. Die globalen Kohlenstoffflüsse werden mit dem vorgestellten Modell realistischer abgebildet als mit Ansätzen, die nur die potentiell natürliche Vegetation simulieren. Insbesondere die Quellen- und Senkendynamik unterliegt vielfältigen Prozessen, die mit einem Modell, dass auch die Bodenrespiration prozessorientiert berücksichtigt, verlässlich geschätzt wird.

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal.

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Des changements de composition et de structure forestière sont projetés en réponse au climat futur potentiellement plus propice aux feux et au stress hydrique. Une réduction importante des stocks de carbone et de biomasse pourraient influencer considérablement l’industrie forestière et le réchauffement global. Malgré son importance écologique et socioéconomique, le devenir de la forêt est incertain car les impacts du changement climatique sur les processus écosystémiques et la biomasse sont encore mal compris. L’objectif principal est donc d’évaluer les effets potentiels du changement climatique sur la dynamique de végétation et des incendies, et de caractériser leurs effets conjoints sur la résilience de la forêt boréale de l’Est canadien de part et d’autre de la limite nordique des forêts sous aménagement (LNFA). Des simulations ont été réalisées avec le modèle LPJ-LMfire pour répondre à trois objectifs spécifiques : (1) reconstruire l’activité de feux au 20ème siècle et analyser l’évolution des tendances spatio-temporelles des feux avec la végétation et le climat, (2) projeter la réponse de la forêt au changement climatique et à l’augmentation prévue des feux pour déterminer si des changements brusques de biomasse des espèces dominantes pourraient survenir, (3) simuler les trajectoires passées des feux et de la végétation en réponse aux variations climatiques holocènes afin de comprendre les relations ayant existé entre le climat, le feu et la végétation. Pour la première fois, des simulations sont effectuées avec LPJ-LMfire sur plus de 6000 ans et à haute résolution spatiale (100 km2) sur la forêt boréale de l'Est canadien. Les types fonctionnels de plantes correspondant aux quatre genres d’arbres dominants (Picea, Abies, Pinus, Populus) ont été paramétrés. Les capacités prédictives de LPJ-LMfire ont été examinées en comparant nos simulations des taux annuels de combustion et de biomasse avec des ensembles indépendants de données disponibles pour le dernier siècle et des reconstructions paléoécologiques obtenues à partir des enregistrements lacustres de charbons et de pollens. Enfin, la version LPJ-LMfire développée a été utilisée avec des scénarios climatiques de l’IPCC pour analyser les trajectoires sur le 21ème siècle. Les résultats principaux de cette étude ont révélé que LPJ-LMfire reproduit correctement les tendances spatio-temporelles de la fréquence des feux observée au cours du dernier siècle et les tendances spatiales de la biomasse aérienne totale, à l’exception de la biomasse à la limite nord des arbres qui est surestimée. Les trajectoires des feux et de la végétation simulées sur l'Holocène sont décalées spatialement par rapport aux reconstructions paléoécologiques et serait dû aux données climatiques IPSL-CM5A-LR fournies en entrée du modèle. La variabilité climatique et les impacts de foudre sont les facteurs déterminants de la répartition de la fréquence des feux au cours du 20ème siècle alors que les rétroactions de la végétation sur les feux contrôlent la distribution de leur fréquence sur de longues échelles de temps. Nos résultats contredisent l’augmentation prévue du risque de feu futur, suggérant plutôt une diminution de la fréquence des feux d’ici 2100, surtout dans le sud, associée à une augmentation de la proportion des taxons feuillus et à une ouverture des paysages qui devraient limiter les allumages et la propagation des feux. Dans les zones les plus méridionales, l’effet fertilisant de l’augmentation des concentrations en CO2 atmosphériques sur la productivité forestière ne compensera pas les pertes de biomasse causées par les feux de forêt et les épisodes de mortalité attribuables aux sécheresses. En 2100, la baisse des stocks de biomasse et l’enfeuillement au sud de la LNFA pourraient menacer l’économie du secteur forestier. Des pratiques sylvicoles préservant la productivité et la résilience de la forêt sont donc à recommander pour permettre une gestion durable des forêts. / Changes in forest composition and structure are projected in response to the future climate likely more conducive to fire and water stress. A decrease in carbon and biomass stocks could significantly affect the forest industry and global warming by high carbon emissions during fires. However, despite its ecological and socio-economic importance, the future of the forest is uncertain because the impacts of climate change on ecosystem processes and standing biomass are still poorly understood. The primary objective is therefore to assess the potential effects of climate change on vegetation dynamics and fires, and to characterize their joint effects on the resilience of eastern Canada's boreal forest on both sides of the northern limit of managed forests (NLMF). Simulations were carried out with the LPJ-LMfire dynamic global vegetation model and focused on three specific objectives: (1) to reconstruct fire activity during the 20th century and analyze changes in spatial and temporal fire trends related to vegetation and climate, (2) to analyze the forest response projection to climate change and to fire increase to assess if abrupt changes in biomass of dominant species could occur, (3) to simulate trajectories of past fires and vegetation in response to Holocene climatic variations to understand the relationship between climate, fire and vegetation. For the first time, simulations are performed on the eastern boreal forest with LPJ-LMfire over 6000 years and at high spatial resolution (100 km 2) over a study area stretching west to east, from Manitoba to Newfoundland. The plant functional types for the four dominant tree genera (Picea, Abies, Pinus, Populus) have been parameterized. The predictive capabilities of the model were tested over the 20th century by comparing simulated annual rates of combustion and biomass with independent observations. The same variables, simulated over the past 6,000 years, have been compared to paleoecological reconstructions from lacustrine records of microcharcoals and pollen. Finally, the present version of LPJ-LMfire has been used with IPCC climate scenarios to analyze trajectories along the 21st century. The results show that LPJ-LMfire correctly reproduces the spatio-temporal trends in fire frequency observed in the 20th century, particularly in Manitoba and Ontario. The simulated spatial distribution of plant biomass is also consistent with observations, except at the northern limit of trees where it is overestimated, especially for Picea. The trajectories of simulated fires and vegetation over the last 6,000 years were spatially shifted compared to paleoecological reconstructions: too far south in the west and too far north in the east. The observed difference would be due to the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate data provided as input of LPJ-LMfire. Climate variability and lightning impacts are the determining factors in the distribution of fire frequency during the 20th century, while vegetation feedbacks on fires control the distribution of their frequency over long time scales. Our results contradict the predicted increase in future fire risk, suggesting a decrease in fire frequency by 2100, especially in the south, associated with an increase in the proportion of deciduous taxa and an opening of landscapes that should limit ignition and spread of fires. The frequency and intensity of droughts induced by climate change are expected to increase and favor tree mortality south of the NLMF. Rising temperatures and atmospheric CO2 will only temporarily increase forest productivity. By 2100, declining biomass stocks and increasing broadleaf proportion south of the NLMF could threaten the economy of the forest sector. Silvicultural practices that preserve productivity and boreal forest resilience are therefore recommended to maintain sustainable forest management.

Les biomes herbacés africains intertropicaux devraient faire face, dans un proche futur, à des changements drastiques. Les modèles dynamiques de végétation (DGVM) ont des difficultés à simuler les limites actuelles de ces biomes, notamment parce qu’ils ne prennent pas en compte la diversité des couverts herbacés en C4. Il est donc nécessaire de caractériser cette diversité floristique et physionomique afin qu’elle puisse être facilement prise en compte dans les DGVMs, et que les comparaisons modèle/données (phytolithes) soient possibles.Dans cet objectif, les traits physionomiques des graminées en C4 dominantes au Sénégal et en Afrique du Sud ont été répertoriés. Quatre groupes physionomiques ont été statistiquement discriminés. Ils varient avec la distribution spatiale des biomes et les précipitations régionales. Deux groupes sont fortement corrélés à l’indice de surface foliaire (LAI) et à la biomasse herbacée. Au Sénégal ces deux groupes sont bien différenciés par l’indice phytolithique Iph qui est un proxy des couverts herbacés intertropicaux. En Afrique du Sud, les phytolithes n’ont pas permis de tracer l’ensemble de la transition savane/steppe. Ces deux groupes physionomiques remplissent les critères nécessaires à la caractérisation de types fonctionnels de plantes (PFT). L’intégration de ces PFTs dans le modèle LPJ-GUESS améliore la simulation des biomes herbacés actuels et permet de proposer des simulations pour l’horizon 2100. Ces simulations montrent que l’augmentation de la durée de la saison sèche et de la concentration en CO2 atmosphérique devraient favoriser l’expansion simultanée des steppes et des savanes fermées aux dépens des savanes ouvertes. / Intertropical african herbaceous biomes are expected to face drastic changes in a near future. However Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) simulate their modern boundaries with poor accuracy, especially at the regional scale. DGVMs fail to consider the diversity of their C4 grass cover. Efforts are thus needed to characterize this floristic and physiognomic diversity in a way that can be used for enhancing DGVMs simulations, and enabling model/data (phytoliths) comparisons. For that purpose, physiognomic traits of dominant C4 grass species settled in Senegal and South Africa were listed. Four grass physiognomic groups were statistically identified. The abundance of four of them significantly varied with biome distributions and regional precipitation. Two grass physiognomic groups were additionally strongly correlated with leaf area index (LAI) and grass biomass. In Senegal, those two groups were also well traced by the Iph phytolith index which is a tropical grass cover proxy. In South Africa the limited set of phytolith data did not allow to observe the full savanna/steppe transition. The two physiognomic groups finally fulfilled the criteria required for creating Plant Functional Types (PFTs). Those new PFTs, parameterized in the LPJ-GUESS DGVM, enhanced the simulation of modern herbaceous biomes distribution in Senegal and South Africa. Simulations were additionally performed for the 2100 horizon. They evidence that the increase of both length of the dry season and atmospheric CO2 concentration should favor the simultaneous spread of steppes and closed savannas at the expense of open savannas.

A central issue in climate change research is to identify what species will be most affected by variations in temperature, precipitation or CO2 and via which underlying mechanisms. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have been used to address questions of habitat shifts, extinctions and changes in carbon and nutrient cycling. However, DGVMs have been criticized for assuming full migration and using the most generic of plant functional types (PFTs) to describe vegetation cover. My doctoral research addresses both of these concerns. In the first study, I added two new tropical PFTs to an existing regional model (LPJ-GUESS) to improve vegetation representation in Central America. Although there was an improvement in the representation of some biomes such as the pine-oak forests, LPJ-GUESS was still unable to capture the distribution of arid ecosystems. The model representations of fire, soil, and processes unique to desert vegetation are discussed as possible explanations. The remaining three chapters deal with the assumption of full migration, where plants can arrive at any location regardless of distance or physical barriers. Using LPJ-GUESS, I imposed migration limitations by using fat-tailed seed dispersal kernels. I used three temperate tree species with different life history strategies to test the new dispersal functionality. Simulated migration rates for Acer rubrum (141 m year-1) and Pinus rigida (76 m year-1) correspond well to pollen and genetic reconstructed rates. However, migration rates for Tsuga canadensis (85 m year-1) were considerably slower than historical rates. A sensitivity analysis showed that maturation age is the most important parameter for determining rates of spread, but it is the dispersal kernel which determines if there is any long distance dispersal or not. The final study demonstrates how northerly refugia populations could have impacted landscape recolonization following the retreat of the last glacier. Using three species with known refugia (Acer rubrum, Fagus grandifolia, Picea glauca), colonization rates were faster with a northerly refugia population present. The number of refugia locations also had a positive effect on landscape recolonization rates, which was most pronounced when populations were separated. The results from this thesis illustrate the improvements made in vegetation-climate models, giving us increasing confidence in the quality of future climate change predictions.

The use of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) in paleo-vegetation studies is a practical new approach in paleo-ecology as it allows for process-based investigations within a flexible framework. The goal of this study is to evaluate the applicability of Lund Potsdam Jena (LPJ) – DGVM in a paleo-study of Cretaceous angiosperm spread, while testing several pre-existing theories regarding the spread through model experimentation. I assessed the independent and interactive role of climate variables (temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and seasonality), latitudinal light regime, soil structure, and plant characteristics (tree versus grass, and deciduousness) in influencing angiosperm expansion by simulating the response of Cretaceous land cover to changes in each factor. I found that temperature and light were the most influential variables in determining angiosperm success, while plant structure and deciduousness may carry implications for early angiosperm establishment and community competition dynamics. LPJ showed great potential for refinement and effective future use in paleo-applications.

A central issue in climate change research is to identify what species will be most affected by variations in temperature, precipitation or CO2 and via which underlying mechanisms. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have been used to address questions of habitat shifts, extinctions and changes in carbon and nutrient cycling. However, DGVMs have been criticized for assuming full migration and using the most generic of plant functional types (PFTs) to describe vegetation cover. My doctoral research addresses both of these concerns. In the first study, I added two new tropical PFTs to an existing regional model (LPJ-GUESS) to improve vegetation representation in Central America. Although there was an improvement in the representation of some biomes such as the pine-oak forests, LPJ-GUESS was still unable to capture the distribution of arid ecosystems. The model representations of fire, soil, and processes unique to desert vegetation are discussed as possible explanations. The remaining three chapters deal with the assumption of full migration, where plants can arrive at any location regardless of distance or physical barriers. Using LPJ-GUESS, I imposed migration limitations by using fat-tailed seed dispersal kernels. I used three temperate tree species with different life history strategies to test the new dispersal functionality. Simulated migration rates for Acer rubrum (141 m year-1) and Pinus rigida (76 m year-1) correspond well to pollen and genetic reconstructed rates. However, migration rates for Tsuga canadensis (85 m year-1) were considerably slower than historical rates. A sensitivity analysis showed that maturation age is the most important parameter for determining rates of spread, but it is the dispersal kernel which determines if there is any long distance dispersal or not. The final study demonstrates how northerly refugia populations could have impacted landscape recolonization following the retreat of the last glacier. Using three species with known refugia (Acer rubrum, Fagus grandifolia, Picea glauca), colonization rates were faster with a northerly refugia population present. The number of refugia locations also had a positive effect on landscape recolonization rates, which was most pronounced when populations were separated. The results from this thesis illustrate the improvements made in vegetation-climate models, giving us increasing confidence in the quality of future climate change predictions.

The use of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) in paleo-vegetation studies is a practical new approach in paleo-ecology as it allows for process-based investigations within a flexible framework. The goal of this study is to evaluate the applicability of Lund Potsdam Jena (LPJ) – DGVM in a paleo-study of Cretaceous angiosperm spread, while testing several pre-existing theories regarding the spread through model experimentation. I assessed the independent and interactive role of climate variables (temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and seasonality), latitudinal light regime, soil structure, and plant characteristics (tree versus grass, and deciduousness) in influencing angiosperm expansion by simulating the response of Cretaceous land cover to changes in each factor. I found that temperature and light were the most influential variables in determining angiosperm success, while plant structure and deciduousness may carry implications for early angiosperm establishment and community competition dynamics. LPJ showed great potential for refinement and effective future use in paleo-applications.

Aim: Identifying how climate change, habitat loss, and corridors interact to influence species survival or extinction is critical to understanding macro-scale biodiversity dynamics under changing environments. In North America, the ice-free corridor was the only major pathway for northward migration by megafaunal species during the last deglaciation. However, the timing and interplay among the late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions, climate change, habitat structure, and the opening and reforestation of the ice-free corridor have been unclear. Location: North America. Time period: 15–10 ka. Major taxa studied: Woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius). Methods: For central North America and the ice-free corridor between 15 and 10 ka, we used a series of models and continental-scale datasets to reconstruct habitat characteristics and assess habitat suitability. The models and datasets include biophysical and statistical niche models Niche Mapper and Maxent, downscaled climate simulations from CCSM3 SynTraCE, LPJ-GUESS simulations of net primary productivity (NPP) and woody cover, and woody cover based upon fossil pollen from Neotoma. Results: The ice-free corridor may have been of limited suitability for traversal by mammoths and other grazers due to persistently low productivity by herbaceous plants and quick reforestation after opening 14 ka. Simultaneously, rapid reforestation and decreased forage productivity may have led to declining habitat suitability in central North America. This was possibly amplified by a positive feedback loop driven by reduced herbivory pressures, as mammoth population decline led to the further loss of open habitat. Main conclusions: Declining habitat availability south of the Laurentide Ice Sheet and limited habitat availability in the ice-free corridor were contributing factors in North American extinctions of woolly mammoths and other large grazers that likely operated synergistically with anthropogenic pressures. The role of habitat loss and attenuated corridor suitability for the woolly mammoth extinction reinforce the critical importance of protected habitat connectivity during changing climates, particularly for large vertebrates.