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The purpose or this paper. is to show that the decline in the Volume of tonnage handled by the Port of San Francisco from 1931 to 1952 is chiefly attributable to the tremendous economic growth of California since 1940. Other economic, as well as non-economic causes of this decline which are in the investigator's opinion, significant enough to warrant consideration, will be analyzed.

The industrial revolution was the start of increasing technological advancements that are continuing to grow today. Technology improves accuracy, efficiency and is more productive in comparison to human labor as it does not require breaks and cannot violate any labor laws. With many innovations available today, firms have more options to choose from and can select the relatively cheaper solution. The push for a fifteen-dollar minimum wage affects the firm's options, and the use of technology might increasingly become the more viable choice. This study took data from the years 1993 to 2016 and created two regressions using the unemployment rate and job automation rate as the dependent variables. The independent variables looked at were the year, the population growth rate, the minimum wage, inflation, the gross domestic product growth rate, and the consumer price index. After normality checks and transformations were done two regressions were run, and the models were studied to determine the effects. Both regressions were found to be valid with f-statistics lower than one percent. All the statistically significant variables were retained in the model, and the insignificant variables were omitted to reproduce the regression and check for accuracy. The models with the lower Akaike's information criterion and Bayesian information criterion values were kept and used as the final models. Overall the regressions found that the year and consumer price index had the most substantial effects on the unemployment rate, and the consumer price index had the strongest effect on the automation rate. Limitations on the study include the data available, a possible lag in the effect of the minimum wage, and the possible inaccuracy in using industrial robot installation as a measure for job automation.

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After the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States faced one of the largest labor shortages in recent memory. In 2021, there were 11 million job openings compared to only 6.9 million people who are unemployed yet want to work – a gap of over 4 million workers. Millions of those available openings were skilled labor jobs, and ongoing labor shortages continue to raise many questions. Scholars have long debated the causes and effects of labor shortages, with competing theories and inconsistencies in methodology. This two-part study explores the roles of perceived job attractiveness and skilled labor training and their relationship to skilled labor employment. The first part looks at the national picture of the skilled labor gap, and the second part focuses more specifically on Ohio and Central Ohio. This research develops a model to examine the U.S. and Ohio employment of welders and machinists in the durable goods manufacturing industry to better understand the perceived labor shortages, how they have changed over time, and the influence of key variables. In contrast to popular opinion about the skilled labor gap, the analysis shows that wages and employment have been flat over the last 20 years even as training has increased. Additionally, the results show that these jobs are safer than ever while training and apprenticeships have trended upward. A geographic analysis of Central Ohio also identifies some barriers to work regarding access and infrastructure. These results contribute to scholarly research in labor economics and mesoeconomics. It informs policymakers and firms as to possible strategies to plan for and cope with shortages, such as altering human resource practices, considering diversity hiring strategies, engaging in apprenticeship programs, and developing relationships with post-secondary institutions. This research makes a clear contribution to human resource management theory and practice. / Business Administration/Interdisciplinary

The following dissertation is a series of three essays in behavioral/experimental and labor economics: (1) Information Asymmetry in Job Search, (2) Minority Turnout and Representation under Cumulative Voting. An Experiment, and (3) Networks and Labor Mobility: A Study of LinkedIn Profiles in the Biotechnology Sector. Standard models of rational job search assume agents know the distribution of offered wages when deciding which jobs to accept. In Chapter 1, coauthored with Kai Zen, I test if incorrect beliefs about wages affect real-world job search behavior in a field experiment with 1100 senior-year undergraduate students in the graduating Class of 2023 at the University of California, Berkeley. Partnering with the Career Center, we present personalized information graphics on school-and-major-specific salary distributions to students in the treatment group. We first document novel evidence that even prior to labor market entry, errors exist in wage beliefs – some students overestimate the available distribution, while others underestimate the available distribution. Post-treatment, we find that students treated with correct information update their beliefs towards the truth, and this is reflected in changes in reservation wages. At the end of the school year, we find that in comparison to the control group, students who increased their reservation wage after treatment had higher total and base salaries conditional on employment, a result significant at the 5% level. However, these same students had a lower, but imprecisely estimated likelihood of being employed by June post-graduation. An opposite but symmetric effect occurred for students who decreased their reservation wage. Our results are consistent with job search models where workers with more optimistic expectations wait longer to accept a job, but accept higher wages. We compare our experimental estimates to simulated moments from the model and find that the mean experimental effect is close to the model in magnitude under reasonable parameters. Our paper suggests an economically important role for errors in beliefs about labor market conditions and shows the effectiveness of a light-touch information intervention on employment and earnings for first-time job seekers. Chapter 2, coauthored with Alessandra Casella and Jeffrey Guo, asks how an alternative voting system can increase the voter turnout and representation of minorities. Under majoritarian election systems, securing the participation and representation of minorities remains an open problem, made salient in the US by its history of voter suppression. One remedy recommended by the courts is the adoption of Cumulative Voting (CV) in multi-member districts: each voter has as many votes as open positions but can cumulate votes on as few candidates as desired. Historical experiences are promising but also reflect episodes of minority activism. We present the results of a controlled lab experiment that isolates the role of the voting rule from other confounds. Although each voter is treated equally, theory predicts that CV should increase the minority's turnout relative to the majority and the minority's share of seats won. Our experimental results strongly support both theoretical predictions. In Chapter 3, using LinkedIn profiles data on the biotechnology sector, it is possible to construct a measure of individuals' networks based on coworkers within the same firm and location. Exploiting such a measure, I intend to test the impact of network size on future employment in the biotechnology sector, which has frequent employee turnover due to unanticipated clinical trial failures. In doing so, I seek to answer the following question: Do larger or higher-quality networks cushion against negative employment shocks? According to preliminary evidence, connections help workers find jobs more quickly. Currently, the network measure is imperfect, the data set on which the preliminary results are based is small, and the assumptions underlying the statistical analysis can be questioned. However, all three limitations can be overcome. I highlight in this chapter the steps to be taken to do so.

Blending migration studies and labor economics, this thesis explores the economic implications of immigrant assimilation in Chile by using probit models to test for employment convergence and labor market convergence between immigrant groups and native Chileans. Using census data from 1992 and 2002, we find significant differences in the employment and labor force participation rates for these demographic groups, affected by the immigrants’ gender, decade of arrival, and country of origin. We see evidence of the nascent care industry in Chile, as well as the implications of the Chilean visa system and employment contracts. Additionally, we see employment probabilities fall for all immigrants prior to the 1993-2002 cohort, due to differences in demographic characteristics and potentially due to labor market discrimination as well. Therefore, we recommend reevaluating and updating the existing Chilean migration legislation to adapt to changing trends, as well as further exploring the immigrant experience and their economic integration in Latin American countries specifically.

The Old Age Pension (OAP) program for elderly South Africans puts a significant cash transfer in the hands of many poor households. This dissertation investigates its impact on labor force participation and consumption of selected household items. In the first half of the dissertation, we take advantage of a policy reform that lowered men's OAP eligibility age from 65 to 60 for men to match that of women for estimation identification. Using the General Household Survey data, we first demonstrate that both men and women respond to the eligibility age by dropping from labor force participation at the eligibility age, as expected. Using a difference-in-difference-in-difference estimator, we estimate that at the median predicted wage, age eligibility reduces men's probability of labor force participation by approximately 6.14 percentage points. Previous studies show that not only is the OAP take-up rate high among the age-eligible, but its value is sufficiently high to generally make it a significant component of total household income for the majority of pensioners and their households. Other studies add that it is a dominant source of income in older households, such that it is often the sole source of income in these households, especially those in rural areas. In the second half of the dissertation, therefore, we examine the impact of age-eligibility status on a number of selected household outcomes, such as food security, sanitation, source of drinking water, and ownership of consumer durable goods. We also examine the extent to which gender influences its impact on household outcomes. We find positive effects on a select number of outcomes; however, we note this is more associated with females' age-eligibility status, but not that of males.

published_or_final_version / Urban Studies / Master / Master of Social Sciences