This thesis develops, validates and applies an empirical model that provides the first spatially explicit estimates of gross and net phytoplankton production in Lake Victoria. Gross and net phytoplankton production are in turn used to estimate the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of Lake Victoria's fishery following an empirical formula and the carbon efficiency transfer method. Chapter 2 presents results from three inshore areas where diurnal and sub-seasonal gross and net phytoplankton production was derived using an adapted version of the phytoplankton production model developed by Fee (1990). Spatial and temporal trends of chlorophyll (chl), PI parameters, the vertical attenuation of PAR (kPAR), Secchi depths (SD) and respiration rates are identified. kPAR and SD are highly correlated to chl within the euphotic zone, as well as to each other. Furthermore, the two PI parameters, PBM and aB, exhibit a strong linear relationship and both decline along an increasing chl gradient, presumably due to increased light-limitation, a taxonomic shift from diatoms to cyanobacteria with increasing chl as well as an increased need for biologically fixed nitrogen. These hypotheses are supported by observed synchronous changes in the PSII:PSI ratio of phytoplankton and changes in the chl-specific attenuation of PAR (kchl). Relationships are also derived between biomass-specific respiration rates (RB) with chl and PBM; similar to PI parameters RB decreases with increasing chl. Owing to these correlative trends, only one parameter is required to estimate gross phytoplankton production through the empirical model developed in this thesis. The empirical model predicts that gross phytoplankton production increases in a near linear fashion between chl of 0 to 10 mg. m-3, begins to flatten out as chl approaches 20 mg. m-3 and then slightly decreases when chl exceeds 40 mg. m-3 where the maximum PPG of 13. 1 g O₂. m-2. day-1 is reached and is in close agreement with a theoretical argument proposed by Talling (1965). Areal respiration and consequently net phytoplankton production are sensitive to chl within the mixed layer as well as mixed layer depths. Overall, the lakewide averages of gross and net phytoplankton production are 9. 68 and 2. 2 g O₂. m-2. day-1 respectively. Significant temporal variability was observed on sub-seasonal scales within the inshore of Lake Victoria, and changes in limnological parameters coincided with changes in water column temperatures in each of the three bays. In Fielding Bay, the availability of meteorological data revealed that strong nocturnal wind events decreased both the water column temperature and chl, while both parameters generally increased in the absence of any such wind event. Lateral exchange of water with deeper areas through strong wind events essentially flushes Fielding Bay causing the observed decreases in both the water column temperature and chl; this hydrodynamic event also influences other limnological parameters according to their respective correlative regression equations with chl. Spatial trends were also observed between inshore areas. The deepest area, Napoleon Gulf, has the lowest values of chl while the shallowest area, Inner Murchison Bay, has the highest chl as the mean depth of a bay sets an approximate upper limit on chl. With respect to diurnal variability, PI parameters decline through the day, kPAR increases over the day and no statistically valid trends were ascertained for chl and RB. Chapter three examined spatial and seasonal patterns of chlorophyll fluorescence, temperature, dissolved oxygen and water transparency from four lakewide cruises. Significant spatial variability of each parameter confirmed that lakewide data is required to generate spatially explicit estimates of phytoplankton production. Complex patterns in the thermal structure during each cruise illustrated that physical processes in Lake Victoria are at times more complex that a previously stated unidirectional hypothesis of warm water in the north and cool water in the south (Spigel and Coulter 1996), and these patterns influence spatial patterns in dissolved oxygen and Secchi depths. Similar to Chapter 2, estimates of chl within the mixed layer were highly correlated to mixed depths, while lakewide averages of chl are lower than previously reported offshore values (Mugidde 1993, 2001).

Lake Victoria (LV), is the largest tropical fresh water lake. It is however facing a myriad of challenges like eutrophication, introducing species, mass extinction and climate change. Eutrophication has mostly been seen as a result of non-point pollution from upstream agricultural areas. However, studies have found that atmospheric deposition could perhaps be the greatest cause of nutrient loading in the lake. Our study looked at black carbon as one of the factors favoring eutrophication in LV. Black carbon is a product of incomplete combustion of biomass or fossil fuel. Biomass burning is prevalent in many areas of Africa and our results have shown a great spatial and temporal variability in its concentration in sediments. The sedimentation rates calculated after analyzing 210Pb activity were 0.87, 0.53 and 0.35 g cm-2 yr-1 while the average black carbon concentrations were 4.6, 2.1 and 6.9 mg g-1 for Siaya, Kisumu and Busia, respectively. These results provided valuable information when compared to past historical events in the Lake region especially eutrophication. The study also found that soot BC has been increasing in the past 100 years suggesting the input from fossil fuels. This study elucidates the complexity of drivers of eutrophication in Lake Victoria. Nitrogen and Phosphorous from the upstream agricultural sites has long been seen as the main cause of eutrophication. Through this study we find that soot deposition in the lake coincides with the period of increased primary productivity. The Total Organic Carbon and Total Nitrogen were also analyzed and have shown increased remarkable increase with time. All these geochemical variables are a testament to the increased role of human activities on the lake’s productivity. While other studies on soot in marine environments have associated bacterial growth to nutrients attached to soot black carbon. We correlate the concentration of soot in Lake Victoria basin to blooming of cyanobacteria.

This thesis develops, validates and applies an empirical model that provides the first spatially explicit estimates of gross and net phytoplankton production in Lake Victoria. Gross and net phytoplankton production are in turn used to estimate the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of Lake Victoria's fishery following an empirical formula and the carbon efficiency transfer method. Chapter 2 presents results from three inshore areas where diurnal and sub-seasonal gross and net phytoplankton production was derived using an adapted version of the phytoplankton production model developed by Fee (1990). Spatial and temporal trends of chlorophyll (chl), PI parameters, the vertical attenuation of PAR (kPAR), Secchi depths (SD) and respiration rates are identified. kPAR and SD are highly correlated to chl within the euphotic zone, as well as to each other. Furthermore, the two PI parameters, PBM and aB, exhibit a strong linear relationship and both decline along an increasing chl gradient, presumably due to increased light-limitation, a taxonomic shift from diatoms to cyanobacteria with increasing chl as well as an increased need for biologically fixed nitrogen. These hypotheses are supported by observed synchronous changes in the PSII:PSI ratio of phytoplankton and changes in the chl-specific attenuation of PAR (kchl). Relationships are also derived between biomass-specific respiration rates (RB) with chl and PBM; similar to PI parameters RB decreases with increasing chl. Owing to these correlative trends, only one parameter is required to estimate gross phytoplankton production through the empirical model developed in this thesis. The empirical model predicts that gross phytoplankton production increases in a near linear fashion between chl of 0 to 10 mg. m-3, begins to flatten out as chl approaches 20 mg. m-3 and then slightly decreases when chl exceeds 40 mg. m-3 where the maximum PPG of 13. 1 g O₂. m-2. day-1 is reached and is in close agreement with a theoretical argument proposed by Talling (1965). Areal respiration and consequently net phytoplankton production are sensitive to chl within the mixed layer as well as mixed layer depths. Overall, the lakewide averages of gross and net phytoplankton production are 9. 68 and 2. 2 g O₂. m-2. day-1 respectively. Significant temporal variability was observed on sub-seasonal scales within the inshore of Lake Victoria, and changes in limnological parameters coincided with changes in water column temperatures in each of the three bays. In Fielding Bay, the availability of meteorological data revealed that strong nocturnal wind events decreased both the water column temperature and chl, while both parameters generally increased in the absence of any such wind event. Lateral exchange of water with deeper areas through strong wind events essentially flushes Fielding Bay causing the observed decreases in both the water column temperature and chl; this hydrodynamic event also influences other limnological parameters according to their respective correlative regression equations with chl. Spatial trends were also observed between inshore areas. The deepest area, Napoleon Gulf, has the lowest values of chl while the shallowest area, Inner Murchison Bay, has the highest chl as the mean depth of a bay sets an approximate upper limit on chl. With respect to diurnal variability, PI parameters decline through the day, kPAR increases over the day and no statistically valid trends were ascertained for chl and RB. Chapter three examined spatial and seasonal patterns of chlorophyll fluorescence, temperature, dissolved oxygen and water transparency from four lakewide cruises. Significant spatial variability of each parameter confirmed that lakewide data is required to generate spatially explicit estimates of phytoplankton production. Complex patterns in the thermal structure during each cruise illustrated that physical processes in Lake Victoria are at times more complex that a previously stated unidirectional hypothesis of warm water in the north and cool water in the south (Spigel and Coulter 1996), and these patterns influence spatial patterns in dissolved oxygen and Secchi depths. Similar to Chapter 2, estimates of chl within the mixed layer were highly correlated to mixed depths, while lakewide averages of chl are lower than previously reported offshore values (Mugidde 1993, 2001).

The importance of the microbial food web and how it interplays with the classical food chain has gained considerable attention in temperate lakes. However its role in carbon transfer from pico- and nanoplankton to zooplankton and planktivores is relatively unknown in tropical lakes. Sampling of the microbial food web and experiments to estimate the growth rate and fate of its components were performed in Lake Victoria, East Africa, during the mixing season (May to August) 2002. Bacterioplankton and ciliate densities in Napoleon Gulf ranged from 6. 2 to 14. 9 cells x 10⁶&bull;mL^-1 and 51. 9 to 75. 2 cells&bull;mL^-1, respectively. Flagellate abundance was high, ranging from 70. 4 to 127. 9 cells x 10³&bull;mL^-1. Small flagellates, tentatively called Choanoflagellida, dominated the flagellate community by abundance and biomass. Bacterial growth rates were low, yet high abundance and cell size resulted in high bacterial production representing 24 to 38% of phytoplankton production. Protozoan growth rates and production are similar to values reported for other African lakes and the Laurentian Great Lakes. Protozoa were the dominant grazers of bacteria with grazing pressure switching from protozoa > 5 ??m in June to protozoa < 5 ??m (presumably flagellates) in July. In July, grazing on flagellates was from predators < 40 ??m, probably ciliates, while the ciliate community was grazed by > 40-??m plankton. Given that plankton of Lake Victoria is dominated by colonial cyanobacteria and raptorial zooplankton, protozoa could be an important pathway in the pelagic food web of Lake Victoria, East Africa.

The importance of the microbial food web and how it interplays with the classical food chain has gained considerable attention in temperate lakes. However its role in carbon transfer from pico- and nanoplankton to zooplankton and planktivores is relatively unknown in tropical lakes. Sampling of the microbial food web and experiments to estimate the growth rate and fate of its components were performed in Lake Victoria, East Africa, during the mixing season (May to August) 2002. Bacterioplankton and ciliate densities in Napoleon Gulf ranged from 6. 2 to 14. 9 cells x 10⁶&bull;mL^-1 and 51. 9 to 75. 2 cells&bull;mL^-1, respectively. Flagellate abundance was high, ranging from 70. 4 to 127. 9 cells x 10³&bull;mL^-1. Small flagellates, tentatively called Choanoflagellida, dominated the flagellate community by abundance and biomass. Bacterial growth rates were low, yet high abundance and cell size resulted in high bacterial production representing 24 to 38% of phytoplankton production. Protozoan growth rates and production are similar to values reported for other African lakes and the Laurentian Great Lakes. Protozoa were the dominant grazers of bacteria with grazing pressure switching from protozoa > 5 µm in June to protozoa < 5 µm (presumably flagellates) in July. In July, grazing on flagellates was from predators < 40 µm, probably ciliates, while the ciliate community was grazed by > 40-µm plankton. Given that plankton of Lake Victoria is dominated by colonial cyanobacteria and raptorial zooplankton, protozoa could be an important pathway in the pelagic food web of Lake Victoria, East Africa.

Environmental satellites represent an economic and easily accessible monitoring means for a plethora of environmental variables, the most important of which is arguably precipitation. While precipitation can also be measured by conventional rain gages and radar, in most world regions, satellites provide the only reliable and sustainable monitoring system. This thesis presents a methodology for estimating precipitation using information from the satellite-borne precipitation radar of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM). The methodology combines the precise, but infrequent, TRMM data with the infrared (IR) and visible (VIS) images continuously produced by geostationary satellites to provide precipitation estimates at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. The method is based on detecting IR patterns associated with convective storms and characterizing their evolution phases. Precipitation rates are then estimated for each phase based on IR, VIS, and terrain information. This approach improves the integration of TRMM precipitation rates and IR/VIS data by differentiating major storms from smaller events and noise, and by separating the distinct precipitation regimes associated with each storm phase. Further, the methodology explicitly quantifies the uncertainty of the precipitation estimates by computing their full probability distributions instead of just single optimal values. Temporal and spatial autocorrelation of precipitation are fully accounted for by using spatially optimal estimator methods (kriging), allowing to correctly assess precipitation uncertainty over different spatial and temporal scales. This approach is tested in the Lake Victoria basin over the period 1996-1998 against precipitation data from more than one hundred rain gages representing a variety of precipitation regimes. The precipitation estimates were shown to exhibit much lower bias and better correlation with ground data than commonly used methods. Furthermore, the approach reliably reproduced the variability of precipitation over a range of temporal and spatial scales.

Lake Victoria is the largest lake by area in Africa as well as the source of River Nile. The lake has undergone environmental changes during the last four decades, particularly rise in its trophic condition and decline in oxygen level, which affects the water quality and fish population. Carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are three vital elements required for algal growth that affect eutrophication in lakes. The aim of the study is to examine the P concentrations in sediment cores retrieved from the catchment around Lake Victoria, and compare this with data on N and C concentrations from the same samples. The results show that there is a difference in P levels between the urban versus rural sites. Moreover, concentrations for P, N and C are generally high in younger sediments (near surface samples), meaning that nutrients have most likely been added due to anthropogenic activities in the catchment. In addition, factors like erosion and weathering are also likely to have contributed to nutrient inputs, and thereby the eutrophic status in Lake Victoria.

<p>In this master thesis, I have studied conflicts that have arisen because of a development project, in a wetland in the Lake Victoria region in Kenya. The aim of the project is to improve the standards of living for the local community by increased food production and employment, but it has developed into a conflict because of, among other things, competition over natural resources. The objective of this study is to analyse these conflicts and identify the causes behind them. A further aim is to analyse if the communication has been sufficient in Yala Swamp, from the stakeholders’ point of view, through out the implementation of the project. The stakeholders that were identified in the conflict are the local community that have been affected by the project, the county councils where the project is located, and the company Dominion, which is the exploiter. Conflict theory is the analytical tool used to identify causes to the conflict. Primary data was collected through qualitative research interviews and secondary data are various reports. The result of the conflict analysis shows that there is a conflict between the local community on one side, and Dominion and the county councils on the other side. The conflict is caused by incompatible goals. The goals that are incompatible, which depend on contested resources, have to the largest extent to do with land access and to some extent with employment. The reason for contested resources has its origin in that the local community feel they have been deprived the land they used to farm on and have not gained what they were promised. They also live in absolute poverty and therefore whish to have more land than they have now. Conflicts over land leads to environmental degradation when people are squeezed into limited areas and put more pressure on land. This issue needs immediate attention to not lead to violent conflicts and further environmental degradation. Foremost the local community is dissatisfied with how the communication between the stakeholders worked before the implementation of the development project and after. A committee was going to be set, but today it does not seem to work adequately from the community members’ point of view. A committee would, however, probably improve the communication and resolve some conflicts. This would reduce the conflict potential and lead to a more sustainable development for all stakeholders.</p>

Nyanza Gulf is a large, shallow and long river-influenced embayment located in northeastern Lake Victoria. The gulf opens to the main lake through the narrow and deep Rusinga Channel, the exchange zone between the two ecosystems with different physical chemical and biogeochemical conditions. The main goals of this study are to characterize physicochemical and nutrient gradients along the gulf-main-lake transect, characterize and quantify the water and nutrient fluxes between the gulf and the main lake, and assess the response of phytoplankton community and photosynthesis to the spatially varying physical and nutrient conditions along the study transect. Between March 2005 and March 2006, measurements of physicochemical profiles as well as nutrient and the phytoplankton community analysis were conductued monthly along the study transect. Additionally, analysis of different surficial sediment phosphorus fractions was done in order to asses the potential role of bottom sediment in contributing to phosphorus enrichment in the lake water column. A box mass balance model was used to calculate the exchange of water and nutrient fluxes between different zones along the study transect and to estimate ecosystem metabolism in the gulf and the channel. Spatial variability in physicochemical and biogeochemical conditions was observed along the study transect, especially between the shallow and river-influenced inner-gulf, the deep and physically active Rusinga Channel, and the main lake, mainly in response to river inputs and varying morphometry along the study transect. The gulf had significantly higher electrical conductivity (EC), turbidity, total nitrogen (TN), and dissolved reactive silica (DRSi) but the levels declined monotonically along the channel in response to mixing with the main lake water. The channel and the main lake had, respectively, significantly higher dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) compared to the gulf. Spatial variability in morphometry and exposure to varying wind forcing lead to differential mixing and differential heating and cooling along the transect, resulting in density driven fronts and horizontal exchange of water and nutrients between the gulf and the main lake. Upwelling and downwelling maintained mixing conditions in the channel which consequently influenced nutrient recycling, the light environment and hence affecting phytoplankton community composition and productivity. The net residual water flow from the gulf to the main lake was 36 m3/s but the mixing flux was approximately 20 times higher and both fluxes accounted for a gulf exchange time of 1981 days. The advective and mixing fluxes between the gulf and the main lake resulted in net export of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP; 400 kg P/d) from the main lake into the gulf and net export of DRSi (10 t Si/d) from the gulf into the main lake. In the deep, narrow and physically active Rusinga Channel there was net production of dissolved nutrients whereas in the gulf there was net consumption of dissolved nutrients, which helped to maintain high net ecosystem production (NEP; 566 mg C/m2/d) in the gulf in contrast the channel which showed net heterotrophy. The high NEP in the gulf and the associated high nutrient demand coupled with possibly low SRP to DIN supply ratio lead to P limitation of algal growth in the gulf as indicated by all indicators of nutrient status. This has important implications for management since increased P input into the gulf will translate into increased algal blooms in the gulf and therefore compromise water quality. Spatial variability in physical conditions and nutrient status along the study transect influenced phytoplankton community composition and photosynthesis. The shallow and turbid gulf was dominated by cyanobacteria but diatoms dominated in the channel in response to reduced turbidity and increased physical mixing and nutrient availability (DRSi, SRP). In the main lake seasonal stratification and deep mixing depth favoured both cyanobacteria and diatoms. The phytoplankton community in channel had a higher photosynthetic capacity (Fv/Fm, PBm) compared to both the gulf and the main lake.

Nyanza Gulf is a large, shallow and long river-influenced embayment located in northeastern Lake Victoria. The gulf opens to the main lake through the narrow and deep Rusinga Channel, the exchange zone between the two ecosystems with different physical chemical and biogeochemical conditions. The main goals of this study are to characterize physicochemical and nutrient gradients along the gulf-main-lake transect, characterize and quantify the water and nutrient fluxes between the gulf and the main lake, and assess the response of phytoplankton community and photosynthesis to the spatially varying physical and nutrient conditions along the study transect. Between March 2005 and March 2006, measurements of physicochemical profiles as well as nutrient and the phytoplankton community analysis were conductued monthly along the study transect. Additionally, analysis of different surficial sediment phosphorus fractions was done in order to asses the potential role of bottom sediment in contributing to phosphorus enrichment in the lake water column. A box mass balance model was used to calculate the exchange of water and nutrient fluxes between different zones along the study transect and to estimate ecosystem metabolism in the gulf and the channel. Spatial variability in physicochemical and biogeochemical conditions was observed along the study transect, especially between the shallow and river-influenced inner-gulf, the deep and physically active Rusinga Channel, and the main lake, mainly in response to river inputs and varying morphometry along the study transect. The gulf had significantly higher electrical conductivity (EC), turbidity, total nitrogen (TN), and dissolved reactive silica (DRSi) but the levels declined monotonically along the channel in response to mixing with the main lake water. The channel and the main lake had, respectively, significantly higher dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) compared to the gulf. Spatial variability in morphometry and exposure to varying wind forcing lead to differential mixing and differential heating and cooling along the transect, resulting in density driven fronts and horizontal exchange of water and nutrients between the gulf and the main lake. Upwelling and downwelling maintained mixing conditions in the channel which consequently influenced nutrient recycling, the light environment and hence affecting phytoplankton community composition and productivity. The net residual water flow from the gulf to the main lake was 36 m3/s but the mixing flux was approximately 20 times higher and both fluxes accounted for a gulf exchange time of 1981 days. The advective and mixing fluxes between the gulf and the main lake resulted in net export of dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP; 400 kg P/d) from the main lake into the gulf and net export of DRSi (10 t Si/d) from the gulf into the main lake. In the deep, narrow and physically active Rusinga Channel there was net production of dissolved nutrients whereas in the gulf there was net consumption of dissolved nutrients, which helped to maintain high net ecosystem production (NEP; 566 mg C/m2/d) in the gulf in contrast the channel which showed net heterotrophy. The high NEP in the gulf and the associated high nutrient demand coupled with possibly low SRP to DIN supply ratio lead to P limitation of algal growth in the gulf as indicated by all indicators of nutrient status. This has important implications for management since increased P input into the gulf will translate into increased algal blooms in the gulf and therefore compromise water quality. Spatial variability in physical conditions and nutrient status along the study transect influenced phytoplankton community composition and photosynthesis. The shallow and turbid gulf was dominated by cyanobacteria but diatoms dominated in the channel in response to reduced turbidity and increased physical mixing and nutrient availability (DRSi, SRP). In the main lake seasonal stratification and deep mixing depth favoured both cyanobacteria and diatoms. The phytoplankton community in channel had a higher photosynthetic capacity (Fv/Fm, PBm) compared to both the gulf and the main lake.