The thesis explores the relationship between an incumbent governor's popularity and state legislative election outcomes in the contemporary era. The study employs data collected from 49 states over a 16-year period (1988 - 2003). Existing archival election and economic data were compiled, compared and analyzed using regression analysis to provide additional insights into the state legislative elections literature. The paper offers a better understanding of the relative effects that certain variables may have on state legislative election outcomes. The study provides evidence that voters are apt to "split their ticket" between state and national elections: that state elections are not mirrors of national elections. This could be a consequence of the trend towards devolution and state government's increasing jurisdiction over a broadening array of public policy. The findings suggest that the coattails of presidential and senatorial candidates are not extending to state legislative candidates in any consistent, significant way. However, the positive relationship between a governor's popularity and legislative seats gained by his/her party in the legislature is the one pervasive theme that emerged consistently throughout this project. The result was evident even when variables representing national level candidates, elections and/or officeholders are included. The predicted/expected value for the dependent variable increases during ?on? gubernatorial election years, when an incumbent governor is seeking reelection. The consistent statistical significance associated with both variables representing the governor's popularity indicates that partisan "cues" may be pertinent factors that help determine voting behavior in state legislative elections. / Master of Arts

I reassess the influence of presidential approval on state legislative election outcomes, incorporating the period from the 1940s to the 1970s in my analysis. Previous research finds that presidential approval has a significant effect, but such findings may be biased-they focus on elections after the 1970s, when the president was more visible to the public. Using an original state partisan balance dataset, I measure the effects of presidential approval and find that it has as much influence on state legislative elections from the 1940s to the early 1970s. These findings may engender concerns of state legislative accountability-if state legislators’ electoral prospects become increasingly reliant upon assessments of the president than themselves, they are less likely to feel beholden to voters and uphold their interests.

Cette recherche étudie le passage d’une confrérie soufie au politique, avec pour exemple la Kasnazâniyya au Kurdistan d’Irak (1979-2014). Elle tente de saisir et d’analyser, dans le contexte irakien, les éléments de conjoncture qui ont conduit d’abord à la politisation de la confrérie comme une étape de « prédisposition », ensuite à son passage direct au politique. Dans une perspective historique, cette recherche vise à comprendre les racines du phénomène de l’implication des cheikhs et des confréries en politique au Kurdistan dès le 19e siècle. Cette démarche s’impose en effet pour déchiffrer les caractéristiques originelles du phénomène et les examiner ensuite à travers le cas de la Kasnazâniyya. Du point de vue de la politisation de la confrérie, nous étudions dans un premier temps au cours de l’histoire récente de la confrérie son impact socio-politique tout en examinant sa doctrine, ses branches, les modalités de succession au pouvoir de son cheikh, et l’impact de ce dernier sur l’orientation de la confrérie. Puis nous traitons dans un deuxième temps du phénomène de « rationalisation », à partir de la question de l’organisation et de la « bureaucratisation » de la confrérie. Du point de vue de l’articulation entre la Kasnazâniyya et le politique, nous étudions d’abord le phénomène des rapports de « clientélisme politique », puis analysons le parti politique créé par la confrérie dans son histoire, ses idées, son mode d’organisation et ses stratégies sociales, politiques et électorales pour parvenir au pouvoir. / In this research we study the transition of a Sufi order to the political field, taking as example the Kasnazâniyya in Iraqi Kurdistan (1979-2014). We first try to capture and analyse, in the Iraqi context, the elements that led first to the politicisation of the order to reach a stage of “predisposition”, then to its direct transition to the political field. In a historical perspective, this research looks at understanding the roots of the phenomenon of the shaykhs’ involvement in politics in Kurdistan from as soon as the 19th century. Such an approach is indeed necessary if we are to decipher the original characteristics of the phenomenon and then look into them through the case of the Kasnazâniyya. Concerning the politicisation of the order, we first study during its recent history its social and political imprint while looking at its doctrine, its branches, the handling of the succession of its shaykh to power, and the impact of the latter onto the orientation of the order. Then in a second stage we look at the phenomenon of “rationalisation” of the order, starting from the question of its organisation and bureaucratisation. Concerning the articulation between the Kasnazâniyya and the political field, we first study the phenomenon of “political clientelism” then analyse the political party created by the order through its history, its ideas, its organisation and social, political and electoral strategies to attain power.

Yes / Liberia’s 2017 elections represented a watershed moment in the country’s political history. In addition to completing the first democratic transfer of power from one president to another since 1944, it resulted in wide representation across many different parties and independents as well as high levels of legislative turn-overs. Additionally, these polls brought forward unprecedented numbers of party reconfigurations, increased levels of defections, and politicians/parties losing abysmally in presumed ethno-regional bases. In this article, we argue that Liberia currently exists in a post-war arena of “post-party” politics where a profound disregard for parties is the norm, and in which the electorate and politicians alike forum shop for candidates and/or political configurations they presume will deliver the best results at national, sub-national and local levels. Although literature exploring electoral trends in Africa tends to over-emphasize ethno-regionalism as a driver and constraint in the choices of voters and politicians, we demonstrate instead that Liberians make relatively informed, strategic decisions about political alliances and ballot casting thereby subverting allegiances to ethnicity and region. By further eschewing party loyalties, Liberians have gradually become astute forum shoppers in a political marketplace that makes running for office and voting complex undertakings.

This dissertation consists of three projects related to reputational effects in legislative elections. Building on the candidate emergence, repeat candidates and congressional donor literatures, these articles use novel datasets to further our understanding of repeat candidacy and the impact of interest group endorsements on candidate contributions. The first project examines the conditions under which losing state legislative candidates will appear on the successive general election ballot. Broadly speaking, I find a good deal of support for the notion that candidates respond rationally to changes in their political environment when determining whether to run again. The second project aims to measure the impact of repeat candidacy on state legislative election outcomes. Ultimately I find a reward/penalty structure through which losing candidates for lower chamber seats that perform well in their first election have a slight advantage over first-time candidates in their repeat elections. The final chapter of this dissertation examines the relationship between interest group endorsements and individual contributions for 2010 U.S. Senate candidates. The results of this chapter suggest that some interest group endorsements lead to increased campaign contributions, as compared to unendorsed candidates, but that others do not. This research points to a number of opportunities for future research as the relationship between endorsements and campaign resources is vastly understudied. / Political Science

Yes / Liberia’s 2017 elections represented a watershed moment in the country’s political history. In addition to completing the first democratic transfer of power from one president to another since 1944, it resulted in wide representation across many different parties and independents as well as high levels of legislative turn-overs. Additionally, these polls brought forward unprecedented numbers of party reconfigurations, increased levels of defections, and politicians/parties losing abysmally in presumed ethno-regional bases. In this article, we argue that Liberia currently exists in a post-war arena of “post-party” politics where a profound disregard for parties is the norm, and in which the electorate and politicians alike forum shop for candidates and/or political configurations they presume will deliver the best results at national, sub-national and local levels. Although literature exploring electoral trends in Africa tends to over-emphasize ethno-regionalism as a driver and constraint in the choices of voters and politicians, we demonstrate instead that Liberians make relatively informed, strategic decisions about political alliances and ballot casting thereby subverting allegiances to ethnicity and region. By further eschewing party loyalties, Liberians have gradually become astute forum shoppers in a political marketplace that makes running for office and voting complex undertakings.

This diploma thesis focuses on relations between a candidate and a political party and how these relations are influenced by political marketing and media. Political party TOP 09 and its leader Karel Schwarzenberg are studied during the political campaign preceding Czech legislative election in May 2010. The study is based on TOP 09's documents and interviews of Karel Schwarzenberg in Czech media. Theoretical part of this thesis is dedicated to concepts of political marketing, influence of media and models of communication. Content analysis compares themes and ways to speak about them used by the party and by Schwarzenberg. Qualitative analysis asks if the party can make use of Schwrazenberg for its own campaign and how strength and what sort of are relations between TOP 09 and its leader.

La thèse retrace les nombreuses positions des responsables politiques français vis à vis de la notion de cohabitation au cours des années 1958-2017 et met en évidence leurs contradictions institutionnelles qui se révèlent en fonction de situations et de circonstances politiques données. Elle souligne ainsi les nombreuses divergences institutionnelles de la droite sur le sujet : le refus cohabitationniste du régime Gaullien et Pompidolien, le consentement Giscardien de 1978, la division au sein-même de la droite au cours des années Mitterrand entre 1981 et 1995, l'union dans la dénonciation au cours du premier mandat de Jacques Chirac entre 1995 et 2002 et enfin une succession de contradictions au cours des années 2002-2017. La thèse relève aussi certaines divergences institutionnelles du côté de la gauche socialiste : une volonté cohabitationniste au cours des années 1958-1981, une sérieuse réserve au cours des années 1981-1986 puis 1988-1993, une satisfaction cohabitationniste au cours des années 1997-2002 et également une succession de contradictions au cours des années 2002-2017. La thèse montre donc la manière dont les responsables politiques ont fait évoluer leurs doctrines institutionnelles en fonction de situations et de circonstances politiques données et cherche aussi à expliquer leurs nombreuses stratégies personnelles et leurs réflexions institutionnelles vis à vis de la cohabitation. / The thesis recalls the many positions of the French political officials with respect to the concept of cohabitation during years 1958-2017 and highlights their institutional contradictions which appear according to situations and political circumstances given. It thus emphasizes the many institutional divergences of the right-hand side on the subject : the cohabitationnist refusal of the Gaullist and Pompidolian regims, the Giscardian assent of 1978, the division within the right during Mitterrand years between 1981 and 1995, the union in the denunciation during the first mandate of Jacques Chirac between 1995 and 2002 and finally a succession of contradictions during years 2002-2017. The thesis also records certain institutional divergences on the side of the socialist left : a cohabitationnist will during years 1958-1981, a serious reserve during years 1981-1986 then 1988-1993, a cohabitationnist satisfaction during years 1997-2002 and also a succession of contradictions during years 2002-2017. The thesis shows so the way in which the political leaders have evolved their institutional doctrines according to situations and political circumstances given and also tries to explain their numerous personal strategies and their institutional reflections with respect to the cohabitation.

Submitted by Julia Guerreiro (juliamguerreiro@gmail.com) on 2017-09-05T20:38:02Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese - JG.pdf: 1555166 bytes, checksum: 7b6f1a336ae6f5132313851dce52f83e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br) on 2017-09-12T09:54:55Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese - JG.pdf: 1555166 bytes, checksum: 7b6f1a336ae6f5132313851dce52f83e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-12T12:39:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese - JG.pdf: 1555166 bytes, checksum: 7b6f1a336ae6f5132313851dce52f83e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-15 / This dissertation focuses on conciliating two apparently contradictory facts: a fall in electoral volatility and a high turnover rate in the Chamber of Deputies. We use the case of Brazil and explore the hypothesis that politicians will use the advantages resulting from the fall in electoral volatility rates in different ways, depending on the type of party to which they belong. It is assumed that the decrease in volatility is greater in more institutionalized parties and for the incumbents of these parties. Given that institutionalized parties are able to provide clearer information, which helps incumbents improve their electoral strategies, the reasons for their defeats – whether due to intraparty or interparty competition – will vary according to their party’s level of institutionalization. / Esta tese busca conciliar dois fatos aparentemente contraditórios: a queda na volatilidade eleitoral e a alta taxa de renovação na Câmara dos Deputados. Utilizamos o caso do Brasil e exploramos a possibilidade de que políticos irão se apropriar das vantagens resultantes de uma queda na volatilidade eleitoral de maneiras diferentes, dependendo do tipo de partido ao qual ele pertence. Assumimos que a queda na volatilidade é maior em partidos mais institucionalizados e para incumbentes destes partidos. Dado que partidos mais institucionalizados são capazes de prover informações mais claras para seus candidatos, o que ajuda incumbentes a melhorarem as suas estratégias eleitorais, as razões para as derrotas – seja por conta da competição dentro da lista partidária ou por conta da competição entre partidos – irão variar de acordo com o grau de institucionalização do partido.