With the ripples in the financial markets and economic stresses that occur around the world today, it would be beneficial to have some insight into the tools that help investors learn about the riskiness of their portfolios. At what value is one's portfolio in danger of being completely wiped out? We aim to further the understanding of values such as these and give an assessment of some risk measures by investing in an interactive portfolio, as well as estimating the values at risk and expected shortfalls of this portfolio.

With the ripples in the financial markets and economic stresses that occur around the world today, it would be beneficial to have some insight into the tools that help investors learn about the riskiness of their portfolios. At what value is one's portfolio in danger of being completely wiped out? We aim to further the understanding of values such as these and give an assessment of some risk measures by investing in an interactive portfolio, as well as estimating the values at risk and expected shortfalls of this portfolio.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:26:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Alaim Mosciaro Assad.pdf: 587996 bytes, checksum: f945748c91830f8f10e45cf18c509cca (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-08-19 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / The Operational Risk did not receive much attention from firms, regulators and the market until the event of the fraud on Bahrings Bank, in 1995. The regulatory agencies have issued more complex and rigorous regulations in reply to this and to many other events of operational losses. Their goal is to improve the quality of the controls of the financial institutions, as well as to mitigate the occurrence of new events of this kind. As a new discipline, the regulatory agencies have been incentivizing the financial firms to develop advance approaches based on internal models. In response, they shall have a decrease on the regulatory capital applicable. In other hand, the financial firms themselves shall benefit from na internal model that fits their characteristics, and so, as taylor made. The goal of this research is to study the development of an internal model for operational risk, based on LDA, which has been largely used by financial firms worldwide. The focus on an Insurance company is due to the expressive growth of this market in the later years, which has giving it an increasing importance to the national economy as well as institutional investors role. / Até 1995, com a fraude do Banco Bahrings, não era dada maior relevância ao Risco Operacional pelas firmas, órgãos reguladores e pelo mercado em geral. Após esse e uma série de outros eventos de perdas, algumas delas com consequências desastrosas para o mercado financeiro, os órgãos reguladores passaram a publicar regulamentações cada vez mais rigorosas, para melhorar o controle das instituições financeiras, e evitar a ocorrência de novas perdas. Esses requerimentos regulatórios, dado o seu caráter ainda incipiente, estimulam o desenvolvimento de técnicas de abordagens avançadas, calcadas em modelos internos, com a promessa que, como um modelo de gestão adequado às características de cada instituição será mais eficiente, em consequência, reduzirá a necessidade de capital regulatório. Esta pesquisa encaixa-se no rol desse desenvolvimento do conhecimento das técnicas de gestão avançadas do Risco Operacional, ao abordar o desenvolvimento de um modelo de gestão de Riscos Operacionais baseado numa dessas técnicas avançadas: a distribuição de perdas operacionais (LDA). A LDA vem sendo cada vez mais utilizada pelas instituições financeiras internacionais, e seu uso já é previsto nos normativos regulamentares nacionais em fase de audiência pública. A ênfase da aplicação desta pesquisa numa companhia seguradora se deve ao expressivo crescimento do setor nos últimos anos, que vem lhe conferindo importância cada vez maior na economia, especialmente quanto ao seu papel de investidor institucional.

This dissertation consists of two chapters. The first chapter establishes an algorithm for calculating capital requirements. The calculation of capital requirements for financial institutions usually entails a reevaluation of the company's assets and liabilities at some future point in time for a (large) number of stochastic forecasts of economic and firm-specific variables. The complexity of this nested valuation problem leads many companies to struggle with the implementation. The current chapter proposes and analyzes a novel approach to this computational problem based on least-squares regression and Monte Carlo simulations. Our approach is motivated by a well-known method for pricing non-European derivatives. We study convergence of the algorithm and analyze the resulting estimate for practically important risk measures. Moreover, we address the problem of how to choose the regressors, and show that an optimal choice is given by the left singular functions of the corresponding valuation operator. Our numerical examples demonstrate that the algorithm can produce accurate results at relatively low computational costs, particularly when relying on the optimal basis functions. The second chapter discusses another application of regression-based methods, in the context of pricing variable annuities. Advanced life insurance products with exercise-dependent financial guarantees present challenging problems in view of pricing and risk management. In particular, due to the complexity of the guarantees and since practical valuation frameworks include a variety of stochastic risk factors, conventional methods that are based on the discretization of the underlying (Markov) state space may not be feasible. As a practical alternative, this chapter explores the applicability of Least-Squares Monte Carlo (LSM) methods familiar from American option pricing in this context. Unlike previous literature we consider optionality beyond surrendering the contract, where we focus on popular withdrawal benefits - so-called GMWBs - within Variable Annuities. We introduce different LSM variants, particularly the regression-now and regression-later approaches, and explore their viability and potential pitfalls. We commence our numerical analysis in a basic Black-Scholes framework, where we compare the LSM results to those from a discretization approach. We then extend the model to include various relevant risk factors and compare the results to those from the basic framework.

The Basel II accord requires banks to put aside a capital buffer against unexpected operational losses, resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems or from external events. Under the sophisticated Advanced Measurement Approach banks are given the opportunity to develop their own model to estimate operational risk.This report focus on a loss distribution approach based on a set of real data. First a comprehensive data analysis was made which suggested that the observations belonged to a heavy tailed distribution. An evaluation of commonly used distributions was performed. The evaluation resulted in the choice of a compound Poisson distribution to model frequency and a piecewise defined distribution with an empirical body and a generalized Pareto tail to model severity. The frequency distribution and the severity distribution define the loss distribution from which Monte Carlo simulations were made in order to estimate the 99.9% quantile, also known as the the regulatory capital. Conclusions made on the journey were that including all operational risks in a model is hard, but possible, and that extreme observations have a huge impact on the outcome.

El Proyecto tiene como objetivo plasmar propuestas desarrolladas y orientadas en mejoras efectivas en toda la cadena de suministro en una empresa que se dedica a la venta y distribución al por mayor de frutas y verduras frescas. Con la finalidad de encontrar oportunidades de mejora en cada proceso, se realizaron diversos análisis de costo-beneficio para sustentar la inversión en las propuestas. Por ello, se proporciona en primera instancia reducir mermas y mantener la cadena de frío. Para obtener resultados enfocado en el logro de objetivos era necesario realizar mejoras tales como: Implementar buenas prácticas de manipuleo de material, instruidos bajo “Manuales de Manipulación”, con el cual se ha trabajado y capacitado al equipo, Óptima y eficiente distribución de Carga en camiones frigoríficos de acuerdo a capacidad de pallets por camión y criterios de apilamiento por producto, Implementación de equipos de refrigeración en almacén (diseño de secos y refrigerados), con aporte de codificación de productos para definir las ubicaciones, Implementar mejoras en el empaque al vacío con la finalidad de extender la vida perecible del producto, Cumplimiento y monitoreo de salidas de camiones hacia puntos de minas y por último la creación de una línea de producción a partir de los productos “no aptos por calidad” para reutilizarlos y convertirlos en fruta deshidratada para la comercialización. Obteniendo un resultado cuantitativo de reducción de 15% a 3% en términos de mermas y reprocesos. / The project aims to translate proposals developed and oriented towards effective improvements throughout the supply chain in a company that is dedicated to the wholesale sale and distribution of fresh fruits and vegetables. In order to find improvement opportunities in each process, several cost-benefit analyses were carried out to support the investment in the proposals. Therefore, the first step is to reduce losses and maintain the cold chain. To obtain results focused on the achievement of objectives it was necessary to make improvements such as Implementing good practices for handling materials, instructed under "Handling Manuals", with which the team has worked and been trained, Optimal and efficient distribution of cargo in refrigerated trucks according to the capacity of pallets per truck and stacking criteria for each product, Implementation of refrigeration equipment in the warehouse (design of dry and refrigerated), with product coding to define locations, implement improvements in vacuum packaging to extend the shelf life of the product, compliance and monitoring of truck departures to mining sites and finally the creation of a production line from the products "not suitable for quality" to reuse them and turn them into dried fruit for marketing. The result is a quantitative reduction of 15% to 3% in terms of losses and reprocessing. / Trabajo de Suficiencia Profesional

No description available.

Notre intérêt dans cette thèse est de combiner les différentes techniques de mesure du risque opérationnel dans les secteurs financiers, et on s'intéresse plus particulièrement aux conséquences du risque d'estimation dans les modèles, qui est un risque opérationnel particulier. Nous allons présenter les concepts mathématiques et actuariels associés ainsi qu'une application numérique en ce qui concerne l'approche de mesure avancée comme Loss Distribution pour calculer l'exigence en capital. En plus, on se concentre sur le risque d'estimation illustré avec l'analyse des scénarios de l'opinion d'experts en conjonction avec des données de pertes internes pour évaluer notre exposition aux évènements de gravité. Nous concluons cette première partie en définissant une technique de mise l'échelle sur la base de (MCO) qui nous permet de normaliser nos données externes à une banque locale Libanaise.Dans la deuxième partie, on donne de l'importance sur la mesure de l'erreur induite sur le SCR par l'erreur d'estimation des paramètres, on propose une méthode alternative pour estimer une courbe de taux et on termine par attirer l'attention sur les réflexions autour des hypothèses de calcul et ce que l'on convient de qualifier d'hypothèse "cohérente avec les valeurs de marché" serait bien plus pertinente et efficace que la complexification du modèle, source d'instabilité supplémentaire, ainsi mettre en évidence le risque d'estimation qui est lié au risque opérationnel et doit être accordé beaucoup plus d'attention dans nos modèles de travail / Our interest in this thesis is first to combine the different measurement techniques for operational risk in financial companies, and we highlight more and more the consequences of estimation risk which is treated as a particular part of operational risk. In the first part, we will present a full overview of operational risk, from the regulatory laws and regulations to the associated mathematical and actuarial concepts as well as a numerical application regarding the Advanced Measurement Approach, like Loss Distribution to calculate the capital requirement, then applying the Extreme Value Theory. We conclude this first part by setting a scaling technique based on (OLS) enabling us to normalize our external data to a local Lebanese Bank. On the second part, we feature estimation risk by first measuring the error induced on the SCR by the estimation error of the parameters, to having an alternative yield curve estimation and finishing by calling attention to the reflections on assumptions of the calculation instead of focusing on the so called hypothesis "consistent with market values", would be more appropriate and effective than to complicate models and generate additional errors and instability. Chapters in this part illustrate the estimation risk in its different aspects which is a part of operational risk, highlighting as so the attention that should be given in treating our models

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:25:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Arthur Monteiro Gabbay.pdf: 425008 bytes, checksum: 1824b9dbd4b1080b887305933b95be36 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-08-11 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / Many authors consider Operational Risk as a key variable for maintaining the balance of the global financial market. The objective of this dissertation is to study the development of a Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA), specifically the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) on a database of actual operational losses. Being more specifically, this study promotes an analysis about the results and possible limitations related to the implementation of the model. To achieve these goals, it is needed to discuss the definitions of Operational Risk, Monte Carlo Simulation and value-at-risk (VaR), considering that these concepts are crucial to the implementation of the LDA. / O risco operacional é considerado por muitos autores uma variável determinante para a manutenção do equilíbrio do mercado financeiro global. O objetivo desta dissertação é estudar o desenvolvimento de uma modelo de Abordagem de Mensuração Avançada (AMA),mais especificamente a Loss Distribution Approach (LDA), sobre um banco de dados reais de perdas operacionais. Mais especificamente este estudo promove uma análise sobre os resultados e sobre eventuais limitações relacionadas à aplicação do modelo. Para realização destes objetivos, abordam-se as definições do risco operacional, simulação de Monte Carlo e value-at-risk (VaR), haja vista que estes são conceitos cruciais para a aplicação do LDA.

A aplicação de Redes Bayesianas como modelo causal em Risco Operacional e extremamente atrativa do ponto de vista do gerenciamento dos riscos e do calculo do capital regulatorio do primeiro pilar do Novo Acordo da Basileia. Com as Redes e possível obter uma estimativa do VAR operacional utilizando-se não somente os dados históricos de perdas, mas também variáveis explicativas e conhecimento especialista através da possibilidade de inclusão de informações subjetivas. / The application of Bayesian Networks as causal model in Operational Risk is very attractive from the point of view of risk management and the calculation of regulatory capital under the first pillar of the New Basel Accord. It is possible to obtain with the networks an estimate of operational VAR based not only on the historical loss data but also in explanatory variables and expert knowledge through the possibility of inclusion of subjective information.