After the 2008 financial crisis, some have questioned the historically positive benefits ofdiversification, meanwhile others have stated a clear misunderstanding of whatdiversification entails. This study argues diversification is still viable in portfolio theory,and that more effort should be emphasized on macroeconomic factors’ role in theoptimal portfolio. According to the Rational choice theory, investors want to reduce riskwithout lowering expected returns. Modern portfolio theory believes it is possible to doso, by combining less-than-perfect correlated asset classes in a portfolio. The businesscycle theory adds a further perspective by considering cycling movements in themacroeconomic environment, which this study ties to the correlation of asset classes.This study enriches the range of macroeconomic factors and asset classes, focusing onthe EU area, and subsequently, identifies existing relationships. Hence, the researchquestion, “Do macroeconomic factors moderate diversification effect across assetclasses in the EU?” is answered.Results are achieved through the positivist paradigm and the deductive researchapproach, and further, a panel data analysis including 18 macroeconomic factors and 8asset classes during the 2013 to 2022 time periods. The OLS single regression model isused, and results are compared to the previous literature.The characteristics of these 70 relationships are presented. Further, the level of impactfor 18 macroeconomic factors is ranked, the unemployment rate is the most impactfulfactor and GDP impact on gross public debt is the least impactful factor. An investor'sperspective is kept during the thesis to inspire professional investors, especiallyportfolio managers to be detail-oriented when they design diversification strategies andconstruct the optimal portfolios. Also, the results regarding institutional quality indexesincrease the importance of the social and sustainable segment of macroeconomicfactors, which should be considered by investors in the future. Ultimately, this studycontributes to previous literature by examining the empirical results through the lens ofRational choice theory, Business cycle theory, and Modern portfolio theory.

This study seeks to investigate the relationship between human development factors and domestic stock markets using a multiple linear regression model. Despite efforts to improve the model's explanatory power, the findings indicate that the model fails to confirm the research question. Nevertheless, the model uncovers a discernible trend in the dataset, albeit with limited explanatory capacity. These results highlight the complexity of the interplay between human development factors and domestic stock markets and suggest the need for further research and alternative modeling approaches to deepen the understanding of this relationship.

The theme of my thesis is the analysis of the factors influencing the market of pension funds in the Czech Republic. The aim of this work is to analyze the factors affecting the pension market in the last ten years. The theoretical part is focused on the overview of a given issue, the definition of legislative terms and basic concepts. There is described the basic characteristics of the pension funds and the legal framework. A separate chapter is devoted to the management of pension funds and state supervision of pension funds. There is also an overview of the development of the pension fund in the Czech Republic and other terms associated with it. In the practical part there is monitored an impact of individual factors (the gross domestic product, unemployment, inflation and wage developments) on indicators of the pension market, with evaluation by using regression and correlation analysis. The aim is to determine whether there is a relationship of macroeconomic variables on the characteristics of the pension market, or how to tight the binding between them. In the second part of the practical work was monitored the performance of each pension fund.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第19950号 / 経博第537号 / 新制||経||278(附属図書館) / 33046 / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 宇仁 宏幸, 准教授 矢野 剛, 准教授 COLPAN Meziyet Asli / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

The choice of a corporation’s capital structure is a complex process determined by several factors. The academia and the business industry have both been enamored with finding the determinants of capital structure, as there has been evidence that the profitability of firms is influenced by financing decisions. Nevertheless, the determinants are so far inconclusive. Moreover, they are dependent on both internal and external factors. However, previous research has generally focused solely on internal or external factors. Therefore, this thesis aims to capture a combination of firm-specific factors and macroeconomic variables affecting capital structure decisions. We focus on Swedish firms listed on Nasdaq OMX. To investigate which internal and external factors affect the capital structure, an unbalanced fixed effects data multiple linear regression was performed. The regression tested several hypotheses derived from previous studies, where the trade-off theory and the pecking order theory were used as a base. Our results indicate that for internal factors, the pecking order theory is superior at explaining financial decisions in Swedish companies compared to the trade-off theory. When it comes to external factors, the pecking order theory provides a more accurate framework. However, it should be noted that the results are not unambiguous. The ambiguity of the results suggests one very important conclusion. Neither of these two theories have the capability to fully explain how firms decide their capital structure. Each model contributes with some pieces of the puzzle, but both contain limitations.

Small and medium-sized companies constitute a large part of the Swedish economy and are to a great extent exposed to the developments in the macroeconomy. There is a general consensus that it exists a relationship between these two components, but to what dimension is it true? The aim of this thesis is to evaluate if the number of bankruptcies among small and medium-sized companies can be explained by the situation in the macroeconomy. In order to do so, data have been collected and a multiple linear regression analysis has been accomplished. The result of the analysis suggests that a model of the six macroeconomic factors months, CPI, retail sales, OMX30, total enterprises and liquidated enterprises, can explain the number of bankruptcies to an extent of 64.49%. When comparing the adequacy of other models used to estimate risks of bankruptcy, it is stated that other models are more accurate. Furthermore, we have concluded that the model is useful to bring insight but only when considered in combinations with other models and tools. / Små- och medelstora bolag utgör en stor del av den svenska ekonomin och är i mycket stor utsträckning exponerad mot utvecklingen i makroekonomin. Den generella bilden är att det existerar en relation mellan dessa två komponenter, men till vilken utsträckning är det sant? Syftet med den här uppsatsen är att utvärdera om antalet konkurser bland små- och medelstora bolag kan förklaras av vilket stadium makroekonomin befinner sig i. För att kunna genomföra undersökningen har en multipel linjär regressionsanalys genomförts. Resultatet av analysen visar att en modell bestående av sex oberoende variabler, månader, KPI, detaljhandeln, OMX30, totalt antal bolag och antal likviderade bolag, kan till 64.49% förklara utfallet av antalet konkurser bland små- och medelstora bolag. Jämfört med andra modeller och teorier som används för att beräkna risken av konkurs hos ett bolag uppfyller modellen inte lika hög tillförlitliget. Slutgiltigen föreslås att modellen kan användas i kombination med andra modeller och verktyg för att bidra med insikt och slutsatser.

Santraukos turinys: magistro baigiamajame darbe analizuojami legalios ir nelegalios migracijos mastai Lietuvoje, pateikiama emigrantų demografinė struktūra, emigracijos raida po nepriklausomybės atkūrimo bei įstojimo į ES. Nagrinėjami emigracijos makroekonominio ir mikroekonominio lygio veiksniai bei jų įtaka ekonominiams, socialiniams bei demografiniams procesams Lietuvoje. Darbe įvertinta reemigracijos situacija Lietuvoje bei aptartos šalies institucijų įgyvendinamos emigrantų grįžimą skatinančios priemonės. SANTRAUKA. Magistro baigiamajame darbe buvo naudojamasi moksline literatūra, atliktų tyrimų rezultatais, oficialiais pranešimais, publikacijomis bei analitiniais straipsniais, kuriuose apibūdinami gyventojų migracijos procesai, jų pasireiškimo formos, pateikti emigracijos iš Lietuvos mastai iki nepriklausomybės atkūrimo 1990 m. bei po įstojimo į ES. Įvardinti veiksniai, įtakojantys migracijos mobilumą bei nustatytos emigracijos iš Lietuvos pasekmės šaliai. Darbe nagrinėjamos emigracijos iš Lietuvos priežastys bei pasekmės vadovaujantis Lietuvos statistikos departamento duomenimis, Lietuvos darbo biržos metinėmis veiklos ataskaitomis, Lietuvos valstybės ilgalaikės strategijos duomenimis, faktorinės analizės metodais. Mokslinės literatūros analizė leidžia teigti, kad emigracijos priežasčių nustatymas, paprastai yra viena sudėtingiausių visų migracijų problemų todėl, kad dažnai priežastys supainiojamos su tikslu, kurio siekiama naujojoje šalyje. Migracijos priežasčių... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Resume: Master’s Thesis provide analysis of the scale of legal and illegal migration in Lithuania, presents the demographic structure of the emigrants, and the development of emigration in Lithuania after regaining the Independence and joining the EU. It also investigates macro- and microeconomic factors and the influence they make on economic, social, and demographic processes in Lithuania. This work also estimates reemigration situation in Lithuania, as well as discusses state-initialised measures for encouraging emigrants return to their homeland. SUMMARY These Master’s Thesis were completed using scientific literature, research results, oficial statements, publications, and analytical articles on migration processes and forms of their manifestation that discusses the scale of emigration from Lithuania after regaining the Independence in 1990, and after joining the EU. It also names factors that influence the mobility of migration, as well as defines the consequences of emigration from Lithuania for the state. Causes of Lithuanian emigration and their consequences are analysed with the reference to the data provided by Department of Statistics to the government of the Republic of Lithuania, the Lithuanian Labour Exchange annual reports, the information on long-term strategy of the State of Lithuania, and the method of factorial analysis. Scientific literature analysis allows maintaining that the definition of the causes for emigration is usually one of the most... [to full text]

This thesis comprehensively examines financial structure choices of firms in three emerging economies of the East African region. It highlights the lack of research in this area and empirically examines three panel data models of financial structure (ownership, firm-specific factorsâ and firm performance models, whilst incorporating the influence of macroeconomic factors) using panel data estimation techniques, including the method of moments framework. It estimates these models using panel data from 47 listed firms; and then data from 20 private firms. The original and significant contributions to knowledge of my thesis are as follows: it provides novel insights into the relation between ownership structure and firm financial structure; it provides new understanding of the relation between firm-specific factors and financial structure of quoted and private firms in emerging economies (an area where research has been lacking); it provides new understanding and additional evidence with respect to the effect of ownership structure on the performance of firms in the East African region; it incorporates the influence of macroeconomic and institutional factors on financial structure choices; and it proposes frameworks for reviewing knowledge of financial structure choices, which can be used for further scholarly work on financial structure of firms in emerging economies. The findings of this research have implications for a possibility of a new theoretical framework for researching financial structure choice of firms in emerging economies; for policy makers to design deliberate policies that enhance access to finance for firms operating in an emerging economy; and for policy makers to regulate institutions (banking sector and capital market) as they develop to ensure equitable access (particularly for the private firms) to finance by all firms operating within the economy. Taken together, the results have implication for future scholarship in that they provide clearer and useful insights on ownership structure, financial structure choices and performance of both quoted and private firms in emerging economies; and the methods used are highly replicable and can be replicated in future studies of financial structure choices of firms in emerging economies. It has also invoked further questions that require answers.

This dissertation deals with the links between stock market returns and foreign exchange rates, industrial production and exports to Germany in three Central and East European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland). The main questions addressed are: "Do macroeconomic factors related to foreign exchange rates and industrial production affect stock market returns in the Visegrad-3? And what is the impact of exports to Germany on those stock returns?" This analysis makes use of panel-data and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) to produce results. Firstly, foreign exchange rates are found to have a negative effect on stock returns. However the divergence in currency returns between the three countries means that the overall effect may be due to some factors that are not accounted for in this analysis. Secondly, there is a positive, but lagged, association between industrial production and stock returns. Thirdly, exports to Germany from the region are also found to have a positive impact on the stock returns of the Visegrad-3. Finally, there is divergence among the three countries with respect to the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and stock returns. Poland and Hungary are seen to exert a significant amount of influence over the region's stock markets.

In recent years, the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) consumer credit industry associated with e-commerce has been rapidly emerging as an alternative to credit cards and traditional consumer credit products. In parallel, the regulation IFRS 9 was introduced in 2018 requiring creditors to become more proactive in forecasting their Expected Credit Losses and include the impact of macroeconomic factors. This study evaluates several methods of supervised statistical learning to model the Probability of Default (PD) for BNPL credit contracts. Furthermore, the study analyzes to what extent macroeconomic factors impact the prediction under the requirements in IFRS 9 and was carried out as a case study with the Swedish fintech firm Klarna. The results suggest that XGBoost produces the highest predictive power measured in Precision-Recall and ROC Area Under Curve, with ROC values between 0.80 and 0.91 in three modeled scenarios. Moreover, the inclusion of macroeconomic variables generally improves the Precision-Recall Area Under Curve. Real GDP growth, housing prices, and unemployment rate are frequently among the most important macroeconomic factors. The findings are in line with previous research on similar industries and contribute to the literature on PD modeling in the BNPL industry, where limited previous research was identified. / De senaste åren har Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) snabbt vuxit fram som ett alternativ till kreditkort och traditionella kreditprodukter, i synnerhet inom e-handel. Dessutom introducerades 2018 det nya regelverket IFRS 9, vilket kräver att banker och andra kreditgivare ska bli mer framåtblickande i modelleringen av sina förväntade kreditförluster, samt ta hänsyn till effekter från makroekonomiska faktorer. I denna studie utvärderas flera metoder inom statistisk inlärning för att modellera Probability of Default (PD), sannolikheten att en kreditförlust inträffar, för BNPL-kreditkontrakt. Dessutom analyseras i vilken utsträckning makroekonomiska faktorer påverkar modellernas prediktiva förmågor enligt kraven i IFRS 9. Studien genomfördes som en fallstudie med det svenska fintechföretaget Klarna. Resultaten tyder på att XGBoost har den största prediktionsförmågan mätt i Precision-Recall och ROC Area Under Curve, med ROC-värden mellan 0.80 och 0.91 i tre scenarier. Inkludering av makroekonomiska variabler förbättrar generellt PR-Area Under Curve. Real BNP-tillväxt, bostadspriser och arbetslöshet återfinns frekvent bland de viktigaste makroekonomiska faktorerna. Resultaten är i linje med tidigare forskning inom liknande branscher och bidrar till litteraturen om att modellera PD i BNPL-branschen där begränsad tidigare forskning hittades.