Despite abundant studies of the application of pension systems in developed countries, little work has been done on how to apply a sustainable pension system in developing countries. The set-up of pension systems in developed countries and developing countries are expected to be different because in developing countries, labor is concentrated in the informal production sectors, while labor in developed countries is concentrated in the formal production sectors. Informal production sectors are sectors where the government, either central or local government, has little access to implement fiscal policies (taxes and subsidies) on firms and labor. This research develops a comprehensive system on how to set-up pension policies generally in developing countries and specifically in Indonesia. The basic set-up of the pension system suggested in this dissertation is as follows: a short run consumption tax policy to finance a defined benefit plan to support minimum physical needs of the older population, a medium run labor income tax policy to finance individuals' defined contribution fully funded savings plan, and a long run skilled labor creation through university education so that individuals are able to self-finance their own pension savings through the fully funded savings plan. The defined benefit plan is important because it can serve as a societal redistribution tool, while the defined contribution plan serves as a household savings tool. In addition, the skilled labor creation serves as a supporting tool so that the pension program is sustained in the long run. A theoretical model is developed from Auerbach and Kotlikoff overlapping generation (OLG) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and specified for the Indonesian economy by introducing heterogeneity in households, where skilled and unskilled labor exist. In writing the model in terms of computer language, we apply an approach named mathematical programming system for general equilibrium analysis (MPSGE), developed by Thomas Rutherford. Some parameters used in the model are estimated by using econometric methods. The OLG-CGE model is applied in order to analyze the impact of consumption taxes and pension taxes on labor supply and also to calculate the equivalent variation of the distribution of consumption taxes burden across generations. Meanwhile, the impact of skilled labor creation on economic growth is calculated by applying linear algebra. The main macroeconomy data is taken from the Indonesian social accounting matrix (SAM) year 2000. Meanwhile, labor data are taken from the Indonesian labor conditions 1998-2003. The findings in this dissertation are as follows: for the equivalent variations, the consumption taxes for USD 1, USD 2, and USD 3 cash transfers per day person gave more benefit to the skilled labor than to the unskilled ones. In the meantime, the consumption taxes for USD 1 cash transfer gave incentives to the highest amount of labor, both skilled and unskilled labor, to work in the formal sector. The amount of labor after the consumption taxes for USD 1 cash transfer is higher than the initial condition. Increasing the consumption taxes for the USD 2 cash transfer only decreased the amount of labor work in the formal sector, with the amount of skilled labor decreased more than the unskilled labor. In addition, increasing the consumption taxes for the USD 3 cash transfer would also decrease the amount of labor work in the formal sector, with the amount of unskilled labor decreased more than skilled labor. We also find that the elasticity of government education expenditures on skilled labor creation is roughly 0.3. This means that if the Indonesian central government would like to eliminate the informal sector by 25 percent within 20 years, or an average 1.25 percent annually, they should increase the government education expenditures to 8 percent of total annual government budget. Other findings are that the increase of skilled labor would contribute positively to Indonesian economic growth, while the consumption taxes and the fully funded pension taxes would be likely to reduce current economic growth but increase the future one. Finally, these are the theoretical contributions to public finance literature: first, given dual formal and informal labor sectors present in an economy, where the latter is dominant, taxation of expenditures is preferred to taxation of income because the first may induce labor to work in the formal sector; second, given dual formal and informal labor sectors present in an economy, where the latter is dominant, there exists an optimal rate of consumption taxes that provides incentives for the highest amount of labor, skilled and unskilled labor, to work in the formal sector.

This paper examines the oil price-macro economy relationship by means of analyzing the impact ofoil price on Industrial production, real effective exchange rate, long term interest rate and inflation rate for a sample of ten OECD countries using quarterly data for the period 1970q1-2011q1.The impact of oil price shock on industrial production is negative and occurs with a lag of one year. However, the impact has weakened considerably compared to the 1970s. The impact on real effective exchange rate is negative/positive for a net importer/exporter, and the magnitude of the shock depends on the county´s share of net import/export of total world demand/supply. Interest rates are affected negatively, through increase in inflation rates following the oil price shock. The effect tends to die out after 5-8 quarters following the shock for most of the variables and countries. This paper also applies alternative methods to test for unit root and cointegration, which takes into account for structural breaks in the data. The weakness of Phillips-Peron test is clearly demonstrated in the case of inflation rates and interest rates, where the test falsely considered the series to be non-stationary when they in fact are stationary around a structural break. There is also strong evidence of cointegration between oil price and inflation rates and between oil price and interest rates, especially when taking account for structural breaks. / This study also highlights the relevance of oil scarcity and oil peak theory. It is shown that these two terms should receive more attention than they have received so far as more oilexporters have reached their production peaks and more are likely to be followed. According to the data, renewable source of energy are not likely to dominate OECD countries energy mix in the short term, instead, there is a trend of increasing natural gas consumption among most of OECD countries. Natural gas markets are likely to play an equal role in the future as oil markets do today. The dilemma that importing countries are facing today, particularly in Europe, is whether to expose their markets to Russia or to the Middle East.

<p>Advertising expenditures are increasing on a yearly basis. An interesting question emerges from this: What are the macroeconomic effects of increasing advertising spending? Does the aggregate consumption increase or does it only rearrange consumption between different products and markets? The relationship between advertising and consumption was found in the literature, this relationship was further developed and the relationship between advertising and household loans emerged as an interesting subject.</p><p>An econometric analysis method was used to test the relationship between the aggregated advertising expenditure and the aggregated sum of household loans, in order to investigate whether advertising spending cause changes in the use of total household loans in Sweden.</p><p>The research did not conclude that aggregate advertising spending causes changes in the use of total household loans in Sweden. However, evidence was found which supports that household loans cause advertising expenditures. An implication of the findings is that the relationship between aggregated sum of household loans and advertising might be as interrelated as between advertising and consumption, and should be further researched. Another implication is that it might not be appropriate to purely look at advertising and consumption to increase the further understanding of the two variables. Introducing household loans as a funding variable to the consumption function can be seen as a new and interesting approach.</p>

O presente trabalho examina as políticas econômicas adotadas pelo Brasil como medidas de enfrentamento à crise econômica mundial iniciada em 2007-2008. Para isso, apresenta-se a conceituação de crise econômica e suas flutuações, além de um breve histórico de crises econômicas em alguns países em determinados períodos. Em sequência, é apresentada a definição de política econômica, com ênfase na política fiscal e na política monetária e creditícia, bem como seus instrumentos de estabilização ou precaução às crises. Após essa etapa, o trabalho registra os principais efeitos da crise econômica no mundo, expondo os principais indicadores e os principais efeitos da crise econômica no Brasil. Para cumprir sua proposta, explora as principais medidas de políticas econômicas adotadas no Brasil como forma de conter a crise mundialmente instaurada. Os procedimentos metodológicos utilizados são: revisão bibliográfica e pesquisa empírica de dados secundários para apresentação da crise internacional; pesquisa teórica e empírica secundária sobre as medidas econômicas adotadas pelo Brasil e a análise do conteúdo apurado, estabelecendo a avaliação baseada no respectivo levantamento bibliográfico. / This paper examines the economic policies adopted by Brazil as measures to fight the global economic crisis that began in 2007-2008. In order to accomplish that, the concept of economic crisis and its fluctuations is presented, as well as a brief history of economic crises in s few countries over certain times. Then, the definition of economic policy, with an emphasis on tax policy and monetary and credit policy, highlighting their stabilization instruments or measures of precaution against crises are presented. After this step, the research reports the main effects of the economic crisis in the world economy, exposing the key indicators and the main effects of the economic crisis in Brazil. To fulfill its main proposal, the study explores the key measures of economic policies adopted in Brazil as a way to stem the worldwide crisis. The methodological procedures used are: literature review and empirical research of secondary data to present the international crisis; theoretical and secondary empirical research on economic measures adopted by Brazil, and the analysis of the discussed points, developing an assessment based on the respective literature.

O presente trabalho examina as políticas econômicas adotadas pelo Brasil como medidas de enfrentamento à crise econômica mundial iniciada em 2007-2008. Para isso, apresenta-se a conceituação de crise econômica e suas flutuações, além de um breve histórico de crises econômicas em alguns países em determinados períodos. Em sequência, é apresentada a definição de política econômica, com ênfase na política fiscal e na política monetária e creditícia, bem como seus instrumentos de estabilização ou precaução às crises. Após essa etapa, o trabalho registra os principais efeitos da crise econômica no mundo, expondo os principais indicadores e os principais efeitos da crise econômica no Brasil. Para cumprir sua proposta, explora as principais medidas de políticas econômicas adotadas no Brasil como forma de conter a crise mundialmente instaurada. Os procedimentos metodológicos utilizados são: revisão bibliográfica e pesquisa empírica de dados secundários para apresentação da crise internacional; pesquisa teórica e empírica secundária sobre as medidas econômicas adotadas pelo Brasil e a análise do conteúdo apurado, estabelecendo a avaliação baseada no respectivo levantamento bibliográfico. / This paper examines the economic policies adopted by Brazil as measures to fight the global economic crisis that began in 2007-2008. In order to accomplish that, the concept of economic crisis and its fluctuations is presented, as well as a brief history of economic crises in s few countries over certain times. Then, the definition of economic policy, with an emphasis on tax policy and monetary and credit policy, highlighting their stabilization instruments or measures of precaution against crises are presented. After this step, the research reports the main effects of the economic crisis in the world economy, exposing the key indicators and the main effects of the economic crisis in Brazil. To fulfill its main proposal, the study explores the key measures of economic policies adopted in Brazil as a way to stem the worldwide crisis. The methodological procedures used are: literature review and empirical research of secondary data to present the international crisis; theoretical and secondary empirical research on economic measures adopted by Brazil, and the analysis of the discussed points, developing an assessment based on the respective literature.

O presente trabalho examina as políticas econômicas adotadas pelo Brasil como medidas de enfrentamento à crise econômica mundial iniciada em 2007-2008. Para isso, apresenta-se a conceituação de crise econômica e suas flutuações, além de um breve histórico de crises econômicas em alguns países em determinados períodos. Em sequência, é apresentada a definição de política econômica, com ênfase na política fiscal e na política monetária e creditícia, bem como seus instrumentos de estabilização ou precaução às crises. Após essa etapa, o trabalho registra os principais efeitos da crise econômica no mundo, expondo os principais indicadores e os principais efeitos da crise econômica no Brasil. Para cumprir sua proposta, explora as principais medidas de políticas econômicas adotadas no Brasil como forma de conter a crise mundialmente instaurada. Os procedimentos metodológicos utilizados são: revisão bibliográfica e pesquisa empírica de dados secundários para apresentação da crise internacional; pesquisa teórica e empírica secundária sobre as medidas econômicas adotadas pelo Brasil e a análise do conteúdo apurado, estabelecendo a avaliação baseada no respectivo levantamento bibliográfico. / This paper examines the economic policies adopted by Brazil as measures to fight the global economic crisis that began in 2007-2008. In order to accomplish that, the concept of economic crisis and its fluctuations is presented, as well as a brief history of economic crises in s few countries over certain times. Then, the definition of economic policy, with an emphasis on tax policy and monetary and credit policy, highlighting their stabilization instruments or measures of precaution against crises are presented. After this step, the research reports the main effects of the economic crisis in the world economy, exposing the key indicators and the main effects of the economic crisis in Brazil. To fulfill its main proposal, the study explores the key measures of economic policies adopted in Brazil as a way to stem the worldwide crisis. The methodological procedures used are: literature review and empirical research of secondary data to present the international crisis; theoretical and secondary empirical research on economic measures adopted by Brazil, and the analysis of the discussed points, developing an assessment based on the respective literature.

Hereby presented Master Thesis deals with an analysis of preparedness of the Russian monetary policy for adoption of inflation-targeting regime. We define the impact of different factors on the level of inflation and consequently their importance in the process of predicting inflation in the period from January 2006 to September 2012 in the Russian Federation. The selection of the factors is based on theory and on the examination of the Russian monetary policy environment, taking into account the credibility, transparency and accountability of the monetary institutions and the financial sector and real economy specifications. The analysis of interconnections among the factors is based on a vector autoregressive regression model VAR(4) as well as on Granger causality test and impulse-response analysis. Our results indicate that the major role in inflation formation among the chosen variables, the exchange rate prevailed in the observed period and the interest rate gained in importance to certain extent. Thus the Russian Central Bank has proceeded to prepare the monetary policy rule for the adoption of inflation-targeting regime. Nevertheless, building more sound monetary and financial institutions, successful implementation of flexible exchange rate and abandoning exchange rate targeting, as...

Companies adopt codes of conduct to set minimum standards on ethical issues, minimums that suppliers must keep. Problems has been found by other researchers regarding suppliers motivation to comply to the code. This study develops a conceptual model for how motivation can be adjusted to different countries, depending on economic situation, politic stability and culture of the country.   Country-Adjusted Motivation is made  by shaping motivating in relation to the human need that dominates in the country and by using the national culture to colour motivation. The model is applied in the context of how to motivate suppliers to a code of conduct in different countries. The model Country-Adjusted Motivation could as well be applied to other multinational contexts, where strong motivation is needed.

Cette thèse présente trois essais qui fournissent un aperçu global de la manière dont les chocs au niveau du marché immobilier affectent l'économie et vice versa.Dans le premier essai, nous utilisons des modèles de Markov à changement de régimes avec des probabilités qui dépendent du temps et des probabilités fixes afin d'évaluer l'ampleur des mécanismes de transmission entre le marché de placements immobiliers, le marché du logement et le marché boursier au Royaume-Uni et aux États-Unis. Nous montrons que la relation entre les marchés immobiliers et les marchés des actions est plus significative quand les marchés immobiliers sont considérés comme des variables explicatives.Dans le deuxième essai, nous introduisons le marché d'immobilier commercial afin d'identifier les interactions entre différents marchés immobiliers et certaines variables macroéconomiques. Nous utilisons une fonction de cohérence dynamique dans un cadre d'analyse spectrale pour évaluer ces liens. Les résultats montrent une tendance commune à long terme des différents marchés immobiliers. Aux États-Unis, les canaux de transmissions: richesse et dépenses de logement sont très conducteurs en cas de crise immobilière. Cependant, au Royaume-Uni, seulement le canal de la richesse s'avère conducteur dans les périodes de ralentissement du marché immobilier. Le troisième essai développe un cadre pour modéliser le marché de logement français. Nous élaborons et estimons un modèle de recherche d'équilibre du marché du logement segmenté entre locataires et propriétaires se caractérisant par une hétérogénéité des besoins de logement. Notre modèle reproduit l'évolution des prix de l'immobilier sur le marché français de 1996 à 2006, ainsi que la corrélation entre le prix, l'âge et la durée. En outre, nous montrons que l'inadéquation des individus avec leur logement est fortement corrélée avec le cycle de vie, et que l'agrégation de ces événements peut empêcher l'équilibre du marché à long terme. / This thesis contains three essays on the linkages between real estate and the wider economy. We provide a global snapshot of how shocks in the real estate market affect the economy and vice versa. In the first essay, we use Markov Switching models with time varying transition probabilities and fixed time transition probabilities in order to assess the magnitude of the transmission mechanisms between real estate markets and stock markets in the UK and the US. The results show a more significant credit price effect than a wealth effect. In addition, the different features of the linkages between real estate markets and stock markets are explained by the difference in the indices constructions of the housing prices and the REIT models in the two countries.In the second essay, an additional property market is included to further investigate the links of different real estate markets with some key macroeconomic variables. We use a dynamic coherence function in a spectral framework to assess these linkages. We find a common trend that drives all the real estate markets, particularly in the long run. The results show that in the US, wealth and housing expenditure channels are very conductive during real estate crises. However, for the UK, only the wealth is significant as a transmission channel during real estate market downturns. The third essay develops a framework that models the French housing market. We specify and estimate an equilibrium search model of the housing market that features a segmented housing market with heterogeneity in housing need. Our model reproduces almost exactly the evolution of French housing prices from 1996 to 2006, along with the correlation between price, age and duration. In addition we show that individuals mismatch is highly correlated with the life-cycle, and that aggregation of such events can prevent the market from clearing over a long period of time.

Submitted by Diego de Sousa Rodrigues (diego-2607@hotmail.com) on 2018-05-21T19:09:48Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Liquidity_constraints_and_collateral_crises.pdf: 724079 bytes, checksum: 3ad8ea76a1e94e45b794f4a0daa1ee3e (MD5) / Rejected by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br), reason: Bom dia Diego, Para que possamos dar andamento ao seu processo será necessário fazer apenas alguns ajustes. SÃO PAULO 2018 = DEVE SER LETRA MAIÚSCULA NAS CAPAS. A ficha catalográfica, deve ser inserida conforme lhe foi enviado pela biblioteca - Mudando apenas a quantidade de paginas. ( colocar ate mesmo o quadrado/ retângulo ) Apos as modificações excluir o arquivo ja postado e fazer novamente toda submissão. Qualquer duvida estamos a disposição. att, Pâmela Tonsa 3799-7852 on 2018-05-22T13:29:44Z (GMT) / Submitted by Diego de Sousa Rodrigues (diego-2607@hotmail.com) on 2018-05-22T16:41:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Liquidity_constraints_and_collateral_crises.pdf: 742240 bytes, checksum: 7566b1884a3945cd0b1e24a245dcae9b (MD5) / Rejected by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br), reason: Boa tarde Diego, Conforme falamos , estou rejeitando seu trabalho para a nova alteração. Att. Pâmela Tonsa 3799-7852 on 2018-05-22T16:48:17Z (GMT) / Submitted by Diego de Sousa Rodrigues (diego-2607@hotmail.com) on 2018-05-22T16:54:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Liquidity_constraints_and_collateral_crises.pdf: 761100 bytes, checksum: 7c985eac9766620ac562288a5c15f07d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Pamela Beltran Tonsa (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br) on 2018-05-22T16:56:47Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Liquidity_constraints_and_collateral_crises.pdf: 761100 bytes, checksum: 7c985eac9766620ac562288a5c15f07d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-05-22T17:50:28Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Liquidity_constraints_and_collateral_crises.pdf: 761100 bytes, checksum: 7c985eac9766620ac562288a5c15f07d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-22T17:50:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Liquidity_constraints_and_collateral_crises.pdf: 761100 bytes, checksum: 7c985eac9766620ac562288a5c15f07d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-05-16 / Asset-backed securities were widely traded. Arguably, this happened because they were complicated claims, in the sense that it was very costly to assess their fundamental value. Here, we show that if this is the case, then the emergence of alternative ways to address liquidity needs, by undermining the liquidity role of these assets and reinforcing the relevance of their fundamental value, may increase the incentives to acquire information about them, and negatively impact the credit market. Hence, our results suggest that it is easier for these assets to accomplish the role of private money when there are fewer alternative ways to address liquidity needs. / Os títulos lastreados em ativos eram amplamente negociados. Provavelmente, isso aconteceu porque eram títulos complicadas, no sentido de que era muito custoso avaliar seu valor fundamental. Aqui, mostramos que, se este é o caso, então o surgimento de formas alternativas de atender às necessidades de liquidez, ao enfraquecer o papel de liquidez desses ativos e reforçar a relevância de seu valor fundamental, pode aumentar os incentivos para obter informações sobre eles e impactar negativamente o mercado de crédito. Portanto, nossos resultados sugerem que é mais fácil para esses ativos desempenharem o papel do dinheiro privado quando há menos formas alternativas de atender às necessidades de liquidez.