We use survey findings to analyse the effects of the Austrian income tax reform 2015/2016 on private consumption differentiated by income classes. Using survey data, we also estimate the corresponding average marginal propensities to consume and compare them to applied average marginal propensities to consume in economic models used to analyse the previous two income tax reforms in Austria. The estimated average marginal propensity to consume amounts to approximately 0.46, whereby in tendency increasing from the lowest income class (0.42-0.43) to the highest income class (0.48-0.50). Our estimated average marginal propensity to consume across all income classes basically corresponds to those used in economic models to evaluate the income tax reform 2015/2016. However, our estimated marginal propensities to consume by income classes fundamentally differ from those used in the economic models. / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

Dans cette thèse, j’examine l’effet de l’incertitude sur les comportements de consommation dans les modèles de cycle de vie. Bien qu’on ait fait le constat depuis les années 1980 que l’incertitude peut modifier de manière substantielle les prédictions des modèles de cycle de vie, certains des mécanismes en jeu sont encore mal connus. Dans le chapitre 1, j’étudie les conséquences de la présence d’incertitude sur la croissance de la consommation, et je montre qu’elles mettent en cause la croyance existante selon laquelle la consommation obéirait une marche aléatoire dans les modèles de cycle de vie standards. En effet, l’incertitude pousse les ménages prudents (c'est-à-dire qui ont une utilité marginale convexe) à réallouer une partie de leur consommation présente vers le future, qui est incertain, et donc à choisir un niveau de consommation présent inférieur à leur niveau de consommation future espérée. Cela implique que des variables autres que la consommation présente améliorent la prédiction de la consommation future, car elles permettent de prédire la différence de précaution entre consommation présente et consommation future. Dans le chapitre 2, je considère l’impact de l’incertitude sur le niveau de consommation des ménages, comment il varie selon leur revenu et leur richesse, et donc comment leur consommation répond à des chocs de revenus. Puisque la présence d’incertitude induit les ménages à allouer une part plus grande de leurs ressources aux périodes futures, ils épargnent davantage à la période présente. Je mets en évidence le fait que cette épargne supplémentaire, baptisée épargne de précaution, varie de manière décroissante et concave avec la part transitoire du revenu et avec la richesse, mais de manière croissante et convexe avec la part permanent du revenu. Dans le chapitre 3, je tire les conséquences de ces résultats pour la mesure empirique de la réponse de la consommation à des chocs de revenu. Je m’appuie sur les résultats des chapitres 1 et 2 pour montrer que, dans les modèles de cycle de vie standards, la croissance de la consommation est négativement corrélée aux réalisations des chocs transitoires passés, à cause du comportement de précaution. Une telle corrélation induirait un biais dans une méthode fréquemment utilisée pour estimer la réponse de la consommation à des chocs de revenu transitoires, développée par Blundell, Pistaferri and Preston (2008). En effet, leur méthode attribuerait aux chocs transitoires présents les variations de la consommation expliquées par les chocs passés, prédisant ainsi une réponse trop faible aux chocs transitoires. Je généralise cette méthode pour prendre en compte l’influence possible des chocs passés sur la croissance de la consommation. Avec cet estimateur plus flexible, j’obtiens que la réponse de la consommation à des chocs transitoires est statistiquement significative et que sa magnitude concorde avec les études sur la réponse de la consommation à des baisses d’impôts transitoires. / In this dissertation, I examine the impact of uncertainty on consumption decisions, known as precautionary saving, a life-cycle model.In the first chapter, I generalize and correct previous findings comparing consumption and its response to variations in assets and permanent income in the presence and in the absence of uncertainty. I establish that, in a multiperiod life-cycle model, under some conditions on the marginal utility function that are verified by standard preferences, the presence of uncertainty increases saving. The variations in this additional saving makes consumption more responsive to variations in assets, concave in assets, less responsive to variations in permanent income, and concave in permanent income.In the second chapter, I draw the implications of these results for existing expressions of consumption. Precautionary saving implies a departure from random walk representations of consumption. It remains inadequate when considering approximation of the life-cycle model around small income shocks or small variance parameters.In the third chapter, I build on these results to explain the discrepancies between two methods used for the estimation of the consumption response to transitory income shocks. Indeed, the presence of precautionary behavior induces a correlation between consumption growth and the realization of past shocks. Some of the existing estimation methods neglect this correlation, so that, in the presence of precautionary behavior, the variations caused by past shocks are attributed to consumption's response current transitory shocks, causing an estimation bias. A number of other mechanisms can induce a correlation with past shocks, such as liquidity constraints or habit persistence, generating a similar bias. I develop a generalized version of these estimators that takes into account the possibility of a correlation between consumption growth and past shocks. The results that I obtain is consistent with the findings derived from other methods.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ricardo de Melo Tamashiro.pdf: 1467421 bytes, checksum: 95e12f0106e54d2efd39cea7e61aa55d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-09-18 / This main aim to understand the evolution of salaries in the Brazilian economy and analyze its effects on structure of household expenditures between 2002 and 2009, from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (POF - Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar). To this end, we use John Maynard Keynes theory aiming to explore the concept of fundamental psychological law for Brazil, which allowed to demonstrate that the law was applied in the country in this period. Therefore, we sought to assimilate the behaviour of wages and consumption, which experienced a new economic dynamic in the period studied. This dynamic was driven by economic growth context, the greater role of the state, fall in unemployment, formalization of work, increased income due the minimum wage policy and cash transfer programmes; low inflation; fall in interest rates; credit expansion and modification of relative prices. To investigate wages and consumption, we highlight some points in Keynes theory: with regard to the determination of wages and his debate with the neoclassical school and the concepts related to consumption, such as the propensity to consume. This allowed to establish that there was general increase in income, especially for classes located at the extremes of the studied lace bands, a result of worker-conjuncture duality (according to our definition); and also found a reduction in propensity to consume, due to the increase of employment, income, and the greater share of expenses related to the acquisition of property reform, loan and payment booklets, taxes and labor contributions that do not incorporate consumer spending as the POF / Este estudo busca compreender a evolução dos salários na economia brasileira e analisar seus reflexos na estrutura de gastos das famílias entre 2002 e 2009, a partir da Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar (POF). Para esse fim, utilizamos a teoria de John Maynard Keynes com intuito de explorar o conceito da lei psicológica fundamental para o caso brasileiro, o que permitiu demostrar que a lei se aplica no período analisado. Neste sentido, buscou-se assimilar o comportamento dos salários e do consumo no Brasil, o qual vivenciou uma nova dinâmica econômica no período estudado. Essa dinâmica foi impulsionada por crescimento econômico, maior atuação do Estado, queda do desemprego, formalização do trabalho, aumento da renda em virtude da política de valorização do salário mínimo e das transferências de renda; baixa inflação; queda da taxa de juros; expansão do crédito e modificação dos preços relativos. Para investigar os salários e o consumo, destacamos alguns pontos na Teoria de Keynes, tais como à determinação dos salários e seu debate com a escola neoclássica e os conceitos relacionados com o consumo, como a propensão a consumir. Isso permitiu constatar que houve aumento generalizado da renda, sobretudo para as classes situadas nos extremos das faixas de rendas estudadas, resultado da dualidade trabalhador-conjuntura (conforme nossa definição); e também se verificou queda da propensão a consumir, em razão do aumento do emprego, da renda, e da maior participação das despesas relacionadas à aquisição e reforma de imóvel, empréstimo e carnê, impostos e contribuições trabalhistas; gastos que não incorporam as despesas de consumo, conforme a POF

The dissertation consists of four self-contained essays on consumption. Essays 1 and 2 consider different measures of aggregate consumption, and Essays 3 and 4 consider how the distributions of income and wealth affect consumption from a macro and micro perspective, respectively. Essay 1 considers the empirical practice of seemingly interchangeable use of two measures of consumption; total consumption expenditure and consumption expenditure on nondurable goods and services. Using data from Sweden and the US in an error correction model, it is shown that consumption functions based on the two measures exhibit significant differences in several aspects of econometric modelling. Essay 2, coauthored with Thomas Holgersson, considers derivation of a univariate and a multivariate version of a test for asymmetry, based on the third central moment. The logic behind the test is that the dependent variable should correspond to the specification of the econometric model; symmetric with linear models and asymmetric with non-linear models. The main result in the empirical application of the test is that orthodox theory seems to be supported for consumption of both nondurable and durable consumption. The consumption of durables shows little deviation from symmetry in the four-country sample, while the consumption of nondurables is shown to be asymmetric in two out of four cases, the UK and the US. Essay 3 departs from the observation that introducing income uncertainty makes the consumption function concave, implying that the distributions of wealth and income are omitted variables in aggregate Euler equations. This implication is tested through estimation of the distributions over time and augmentation of consumption functions, using Swedish data for 1963-2000. The results show that only the dispersion of wealth is significant, the explanation of which is found in the marked changes of the group of households with negative wealth; a group that according to a concave consumption function has the highest marginal propensity to consume. Essay 4 attempts to empirically specify the nature of the alleged concavity of the consumption function. Using grouped household level Swedish data for 1999-2001, it is shown that the marginal propensity to consume out of current resources, i.e. current income and net wealth, is strictly decreasing in current resources and net wealth, but approximately constant in income. Also, an empirical reciprocal to the stylized theoretical consumption function is estimated, and shown to bear a close resemblance to the theoretical version.