Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2013. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Researchers and investors have been attempting to predict stock market activity for years. The possible financial gain that accurate predictions would offer lit a flame of greed and drive that would inspire all kinds of researchers. However, after many of these researchers have failed, they started to hypothesize that a goal such as this is not only improbable, but impossible. Previous predictions were based on historical data of the stock market activity itself and would often incorporate different types of auxiliary data. This auxiliary data ranged as far as imagination allowed in an attempt to find some correlation and some insight into the future, that could in turn lead to the figurative pot of gold. More often than not, the auxiliary data would not prove helpful. However, with the birth of the internet, endless amounts of new sources of auxiliary data presented itself. In this thesis I propose that the near in finite amount of data available on the internet could provide us with information that would improve stock market predictions. With this goal in mind, the different sources of information available on the internet are considered. Previous studies on similar topics presented possible ways in which we can measure internet activity, which might relate to stock market activity. These studies also gave some insights on the advantages and disadvantages of using some of these sources. These considerations are investigated in this thesis. Since a lot of this work is therefore based on the prediction of a time series, it was necessary to choose a prediction algorithm. Previously used linear methods seemed too simple for prediction of stock market activity and a new non-linear method, called Singular Spectrum Analysis, is therefore considered. A detailed study of this algorithm is done to ensure that it is an appropriate prediction methodology to use. Furthermore, since we will be including auxiliary information, multivariate extensions of this algorithm are considered as well. Some of the inaccuracies and inadequacies of these current multivariate extensions are studied and an alternative multivariate technique is proposed and tested. This alternative approach addresses the inadequacies of existing methods. With the appropriate methodology chosen and the appropriate sources of auxiliary information chosen, a concluding chapter is done on whether predictions that includes auxiliary information (obtained from the internet) improve on baseline predictions that are simply based on historical stock market data. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Navorsers en beleggers is vir jare al opsoek na maniere om aandeelpryse meer akkuraat te voorspel. Die moontlike finansiële implikasies wat akkurate vooruitskattings kan inhou het 'n vlam van geldgierigheid en dryf wakker gemaak binne navorsers regoor die wêreld. Nadat baie van hierdie navorsers onsuksesvol was, het hulle begin vermoed dat so 'n doel nie net onwaarskynlik is nie, maar onmoontlik. Vorige vooruitskattings was bloot gebaseer op historiese aandeelprys data en sou soms verskillende tipes bykomende data inkorporeer. Die tipes data wat gebruik was het gestrek so ver soos wat die verbeelding toegelaat het, in 'n poging om korrelasie en inligting oor die toekoms te kry wat na die guurlike pot goud sou lei. Navorsers het gereeld gevind dat hierdie verskillende tipes bykomende inligting nie van veel hulp was nie, maar met die geboorte van die internet het 'n oneindige hoeveelheid nuwe bronne van bykomende inligting bekombaar geraak. In hierdie tesis stel ek dus voor dat die data beskikbaar op die internet dalk vir ons kan inligting gee wat verwant is aan toekomstige aandeelpryse. Met hierdie doel in die oog, is die verskillende bronne van inligting op die internet gebestudeer. Vorige studies op verwante werk het sekere spesifieke maniere voorgestel waarop ons internet aktiwiteit kan meet. Hierdie studies het ook insig gegee oor die voordele en die nadele wat sommige bronne inhou. Hierdie oorwegings word ook in hierdie tesis bespreek. Aangesien 'n groot gedeelte van hierdie tesis dus gebasseer word op die vooruitskatting van 'n tydreeks, is dit nodig om 'n toepaslike vooruitskattings algoritme te kies. Baie navorsers het verkies om eenvoudige lineêre metodes te gebruik. Hierdie metodes het egter te eenvoudig voorgekom en 'n relatiewe nuwe nie-lineêre metode (met die naam "Singular Spectrum Analysis") is oorweeg. 'n Deeglike studie van hierdie algoritme is gedoen om te verseker dat die metode van toepassing is op aandeelprys data. Verder, aangesien ons gebruik wou maak van bykomende inligting, is daar ook 'n studie gedoen op huidige multivariaat uitbreidings van hierdie algoritme en die probleme wat dit inhou. 'n Alternatiewe multivariaat metode is toe voorgestel en getoets wat hierdie probleme aanspreek. Met 'n gekose vooruitskattingsmetode en gekose bronne van bykomende data is 'n gevolgtrekkende hoofstuk geskryf oor of vooruitskattings, wat die bykomende internet data inkorporeer, werklik in staat is om te verbeter op die eenvoudige vooruitskattings, wat slegs gebaseer is op die historiese aandeelprys data.

In this thesis a general framework and accompanying guidelines for how to classify financial instruments within the fair value hierarchy (included within IFRS 13) is presented. IFRS 13 introduces a broad and loosely defined regulation of how to classify a financial instrument which leaves room for misinterpretation and uncertainties. In this thesis the pricing of financial instruments and behaviour of the market data used as inputs in the models has been investigated. This is to give better insight into what is classified as significant market data, how it is used and how it is approximated. Instruments that have been investigated are autocalls, swaps, European options and Asian options. The result is presented as general recommendations for how to classify the specified instruments with clearer boarders introduced between the levels in the hierarchy. Methods and deductions introduced in the thesis could also further be implemented in classification of closely related financial instruments but has been limited in this thesis due to time restrictions.     Nyckelord på svenska IFRS, Finansiella instrument, Klassificering, Fair value, Fair value hierarchy, Autocall, Swap, Europeisk option, Asiatisk option, Implicit volatilitet, Korrelation, Marknadsaktivitet, Räntesatser / I denna uppsats är ett generellt ramverk och medföljande riktlinjer för hur man klassificerar finansiella instrument inom fair value hierarkin (inkluderad i IFRS 13) presenterat. IFRS 13 introducerar en bred och löst definierad regulation om hur klassificering finansiella instrument ska gå till som lämnar rum för feltolkningar och oklarheter. I denna uppsats har prissättningen av finansiella instrument och beteende av marknadsdata som används i modellerna undersökts. Detta ger en bättre inblick i vad som klassificeras som signifikant marknadsdata, hur den används och hur den kan approximeras. Instrument som har undersökts är autocalls, swaps, europeiska optioner och asiatiska optioner. Resultatet presenteras som allmänna rekommendationer för hur man klassificerar de angivna instrumenten med tydligare gränser som införts mellan nivåerna i hierarkin. Metoder och slutsatser som är presenterade i uppsatsen kan även vidare användas vid klassifikation av liknande finansiella instrument men har i denna avhandling begränsats på grund av tidsskäl.

Актуальность темы: в современных условиях пандемии и сложившейся напряженной конкурентной борьбы возросла роль стратегического планирования, которое определяет жизнеспособность и стабильность работы предприятия. Цель – разработка методического подхода и практического инструментария для реализации антикризисной стратегии компании на основе стратегии «голубого океана» с применением технологий проектного управления. Задачи: изучить теоретические аспекты базовых стратегий вывода компании из кризиса и проектных технологий в реализации стратегии; проанализировать внешнюю и внутреннюю среды компании и обосновать необходимость перехода к стратегии «голубого океана»; разработать проект по внедрению антикризисной стратегии компании и сделать рекомендации по снижению рисков проекта. Научная новизна работы заключается в дополнении существующих антикризисных маркетинговых стратегий стратегией «голубого океана»; адаптации стратегии «голубого океана» в качестве антикризисной стратегии фирмы; совершенствовании методики внедрения стратегии «голубого океана» за счет применения технологий проектного управления. Предложенная совокупность методов является основой разработки и процесса внедрения антикризисной стратегии ИП Карамышева С.В. Также предложенные методы могут быть применимы компаниями, которые находятся в поиске возможностей роста, желающих повышать ценность своих товаров и услуг для потребителей, избегая прямой конкурентной борьбы. В результате решения поставленных задач были получены следующие выводы: В качестве альтернативной антикризисной маркетинговой стратегии была рассмотрена стратегия «голубого океана» и аналитический инструментарий, необходимый для разработки стратегии: как стратегическая канва, модель четырех действий, решетка «упразднить – снизить – повысить – создать». Основываясь на основных ценностях потребителей, была определена необходимость в создании продукта, отличающегося красочным и привлекательным внешним видом и натуральным составом без использования синтетических добавок. Выбранная стратегия «голубого океана» позволяет вывести предприятие из кризисного положения путем реконструирования границ рынка, а также дает возможность компании осуществлять рыночную деятельность, уклоняясь от дорогостоящей прямой конкурентной борьбы. А использование технологий проектного управления при разработке антикризисной стратегии – осуществлять процесс внедрения и разработки одномоментно, что крайне необходимо в условиях кризиса. В рамках данной магистерской диссертации на основании создания новой стратегии компании были даны рекомендации по реконструкции границ рынка, заключающиеся в открытии нового целевого сегмента рынка, изменении функциональной и эмоциональной привлекательности продукта для потребителей, а также расширению каналов распределения продукта. / Relevance of the topic: in modern conditions of a pandemic and the current intense competition, the role of strategic planning determines the stability and stability of the enterprise. The goal is to develop a methodological approach and practical tools for the implementation of the company's anti-crisis strategy based on the “company strategy” strategy using project management technologies. Objectives: to study the theoretical aspects of the basic strategies for getting the company out of the crisis and project technologies in implementing the strategy; analyze the external and internal environment of the company and justify the transition to the "blue ocean" strategy; The project is a project to implement the company's anti-crisis strategy and make recommendations to reduce project risks. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the expansion of the implementation of anti-crisis strategic strategies of the "blue ocean"; adapting the blue ocean strategy as a firm's anti-crisis strategy; improving the methodology for implementing the "blue ocean" strategy through the use of project management technologies. The proposed set of methods for the development and implementation of an anti-crisis strategy SP Karamysheva S.V. Also, the proposed methods can be applied, which are achieved in the search for growth opportunities who want to increase the value of their goods and services for consumers, avoiding direct competition. As a result of solving the tasks, the following conclusions were obtained: As an alternative anti-crisis marketing strategy, the strategy of the “blue ocean” and the analytical tools necessary for developing a strategy were considered: as a strategic canvas, a model of four actions, a lattice “abolish - reduce - increase - create”. Based on the core values of consumers, the need was identified to create a product that has a colorful and attractive appearance and a natural composition without the use of synthetic additives. The chosen strategy of the “blue ocean” allows the company to get out of the crisis situation by reconstructing the boundaries of the market, and also enables the company to carry out market activities, avoiding costly direct competition. And the use of project management technologies in the development of an anti-crisis strategy is to carry out the process of implementation and development at the same time, which is extremely necessary in a crisis. Within the framework of this master's thesis, based on the creation of a new company strategy, recommendations were given for the reconstruction of the market boundaries, which consists in opening a new target market segment, changing the functional and emotional attractiveness of the product for consumers, as well as expanding the product distribution channels.

Områdesbeskrivning: IPO-marknaden kan undersökas på olika sätt. Varför underprissättning är så förhärskande, om den går i cykler eller vad det är som påverkar den. Vi vill undersöka den svenska IPO-marknaden under perioden 2006-2020 och om den påverkas av makroekonomiska faktorer såsom inflation eller styrränta. Denna studie är inspirerad av tidigare forskning utförd av Tran och Jeon (2011) som undersöker om det finns samband mellan makroekonomiska faktorer och IPO-marknadens aktivitet på den amerikanska marknaden. Är det så att olika IPO-marknader påverkas av olika faktorer på unika sätt eller är IPO-marknader världen över homogena? Vi försöker dessutom framställa en modell som beskriver det mest gynnsamma förhållandet att genomföra en IPO under om målet är att anskaffa mer kapital. Syfte: Uppsatsen syfte är att undersöka den svenska IPO-marknadens aktivitet under perioden 2006-2020. Samt undersöka i vilken utsträckning den svenska IPO-marknadens aktiviteten påverkas av makroekonomiska faktorer. Med vår undersökning av de makroekonomiska faktorerna som grund kan vi således undersöka vilka makroekonomiska förhållanden som är mest gynnsamma för företag i Sverige att genomföra en IPO under om målet är att anskaffa mer kapital. Metod: En kvantitativ metod appliceras i denna uppsats för att besvara våra forskningsfrågor och datan vi samlar in analyseras med hjälp utav en regressionsanalys. Vi samlar in vårt datamaterial genom att läsa igenom årsredovisningar från de företag som genomfört en IPO under den tidsperioden vi undersöker. Hypoteserna formuleras utifrån tidigare forskning och ämnar att undersöka om de makroekonomiska faktorerna har ett positivt eller negativt samband med IPO-marknadsaktivitet. Resultat: Resultaten som vi finner är att det finns signifikanta samband mellan den svenska IPO-marknadens aktivitet och makroekonomiska faktorer. Vi identifierar ett förhållande som kan beskrivas som det mest gynnsamma makroekonomiska förhållandet utifrån vår modell. Begränsningar: Vår uppsats är begränsad till tidsperiod 2006-2020 samt den svenska IPO-marknaden. På grund av att viss information kring hur mycket kapital ett företag anskaffar vid sin IPO saknas så begränsas vårt urval. / Area description: IPO markets can be studied in different ways. Why underpricing is so prevalent, if the market moves in cycles or what influences the market. We want to study the Swedish IPO market during the period of 2006-2020 and if it is influenced by macroeconomic factors like inflation or the policy rate. This study is influenced by the work done by Tran and Jeon (2011) who examines if there are any relationships between macroeconomic factors and IPO market activity on the American PO market. Is it that different IPO markets are influenced by different factors in unique ways or are the IPO markets around the globe homogeneous. We try to produce a model that describes the most favourable environment to implement an IPO in if the goal is to acquire more capital. Purpose: The purpose of the thesis is to examine the activity of the Swedish IPO market during the period 2006-2020 and examine the extent to which the activity of the Swedish IPO market is affected by macroeconomic factors. Based on our study of the macroeconomic factors, we can therefore examine which macroeconomic conditions are most favourable for companies in Sweden to carry out an IPO under the goal of raising more capital.  Method: A quantitative method is applied in this thesis to answer our research questions and the data we collect is analysed with the help of a regression analysis. We collect our data by reading through annual reports from the companies that conducted an IPO during the period we are investigating. The hypotheses are formulated based on previous research and intend to investigate whether the macroeconomic factors have a positive or negative relationship with IPO market activity.  Results: The results we find is that there are significant relationships between the activity of the Swedish IPO market and macroeconomic factors. We identify a ratio that can be described as the most favourable macroeconomic ratio based on our model.  Limitations: Our thesis is limited to the period 2006-2020 and the Swedish IPO market. Due to the lack of certain information about how much capital a company raises at its IPO, our selection is limited.