The thought of an armed attack on Sweden was for a long period of time deemed unlikely and the defense planning in Sweden has since the middle of the 20th century been characterized by dismantlement. However, recent changes in Europe and especially Russia's aggression towards Ukraine, has made Sweden rethink its policies on military defense. This has led to a political will to strengthen Sweden’s military defense and has by, among other things, led to a political decision to re-establish military organizational units in several Swedish municipalities. This study examines the effects military re-establishment has on spatial planning in two municipalities, Arvidsjaur and Sollefteå. The studied municipalities are two regions where the previous experience of military presence differs. The study showed, through interviews and studying of existing planning documents, that the previous military presence in both cases worked in favor of the municipal planning of the re-establishment. It helped the municipalities prepare for what the re-establishment means in terms of spatial needs and to minimize land use conflicts. Furthermore, it showed that the re-establishment and development of military interests will most likely affect the municipalities’ future development plans and could possibly lead to conflicts with public interests. The study also showed that there are differences and similarities in how the re-establishments affect municipal planning and that good communication is helpful in identifying and to minimize future planning conflicts between municipal development and military interests.

Esta dissertação realiza uma análise prospectiva das possibilidades de estabilização do Afeganistão a partir dos projetos regionais de Estados Unidos, China e Rússia, através das teorias da mudança política internacional e da estabilidade hegemônica, do realismo neoclássico, do realismo ofensivo e do neofuncionalismo. Após o anúncio de 2009 de retirada das tropas dos Estados Unidos do Afeganistão para 2014, a região vem apresentando modificações nos padrões de relações de poder. Há evidências de uma competição em curso pelo controle das rotas de escoamento, linhas de transmissão de energia, recursos e mercados afegãos entre os atores citados, sendo também demonstrada pelos diferentes projetos de reconstrução que esses três países propõem ao Afeganistão. O objetivo é melhor entender como a competição pela liderança política regional ocorre entre esses atores através dos diferentes projetos de reconstrução e integração do Afeganistão na região e qual é a importância deste país no jogo de poder regional. Para isso, a análise realiza inferências descritivas. Em primeiro lugar, a medida de presença militar desses três países no Afeganistão. Num segundo momento, a dimensão técnica dos projetos, especialmente de infraestrutura (implicações para a segurança, permeabilidade social e política; e os aspectos técnicos e estratégicos). E em terceiro, a importância das elites e a fragmentação étnica no Afeganistão são consideradas como fatores essenciais para entender a aceitação e a viabilidade política dos projetos. Nesse aspecto, a pesquisa também avalia como a criação de agências para atender esses projetos favorece o conjunto de burocracias e influência institucional de cada um dos três concorrentes regionais. Por fim, nessas variáveis são consideradas as decisões de política externa de Estados Unidos, China e Rússia para o Afeganistão, assim como o modo com que países vizinhos (Irã, Paquistão e Índia) servem como fatores de influência na política doméstica afegã. A pesquisa tem caráter qualitativo, é de tipo exploratório-descritivo e se utiliza do método hipotético-dedutivo e do rastreamento de processo para expor ao máximo o estudo de caso escolhido. Como resultado, é oferecida uma melhor contextualização da atual competição regional; e as relações de poder manifestas no caso afegão sugerem a proeminência da liderança regional dos Estados Unidos a partir do Afeganistão, devido à presença militar norte-americana no país, inibindo as tentativas de China e Rússia de aumentar sua influência na região. / This thesis undertakes a prospective analysis of the possibilities for stabilization of Afghanistan from the regional projects of the United States, China and Russia through the lens of the theories of international political change, hegemonic stability, neoclassical realism, offensive realism and neofunctionalism. After the 2009 announcement of withdrawal of the United States troops from Afghanistan by 2014, the region has been showing modifications in its patterns of power relations. There are evidences of an ongoing competition for control of Afghan flow routes, energy transmission lines, resources and markets between the aforementioned actors, also demonstrated by the different reconstruction projects that these three countries offer to Afghanistan. The aim is to better understand how the competition for regional political leadership occurs among these actors through their different projects for reconstruction and integration of Afghanistan in the region, and what is the importance of the country in the regional power competition. For that, the analysis conducts descriptive inferences. First, it studies the measure of military presence of these three countries in Afghanistan. Second, it analyzes the technical dimensions of the projects, especially of infrastructure (and its implications towards security, social and political permeability, and the technical and strategic aspects). And third, the importance of elites and ethnic fragmentation within Afghanistan are considered as essential factors to understand the acceptance and political feasibility of the projects. In this respect, the research assesses how the creation of agencies to attend these projects favors the set of bureaucracies and institutional leverage for each of the three regional contenders. Finally, in these variables are considered the foreign policy decisions of the United States, China and Russia to Afghanistan, as well as the manner in which neighboring countries (India, Pakistan and Iran) serve as factors of influence in the Afghan domestic politics. So this is a qualitative and also exploratory and descriptive research that uses the hypothetical-deductive method and process tracing technique to expose the most of the selected case study. As a result, it is offered a better contextualization of the current regional competition; and the power relations expressed in the Afghan case suggest the prominence of the regional leadership of the United States from Afghanistan, due to the U.S. military presence in the country, inhibiting attempts from China and Russia to increase their influence in the region.

Esta dissertação realiza uma análise prospectiva das possibilidades de estabilização do Afeganistão a partir dos projetos regionais de Estados Unidos, China e Rússia, através das teorias da mudança política internacional e da estabilidade hegemônica, do realismo neoclássico, do realismo ofensivo e do neofuncionalismo. Após o anúncio de 2009 de retirada das tropas dos Estados Unidos do Afeganistão para 2014, a região vem apresentando modificações nos padrões de relações de poder. Há evidências de uma competição em curso pelo controle das rotas de escoamento, linhas de transmissão de energia, recursos e mercados afegãos entre os atores citados, sendo também demonstrada pelos diferentes projetos de reconstrução que esses três países propõem ao Afeganistão. O objetivo é melhor entender como a competição pela liderança política regional ocorre entre esses atores através dos diferentes projetos de reconstrução e integração do Afeganistão na região e qual é a importância deste país no jogo de poder regional. Para isso, a análise realiza inferências descritivas. Em primeiro lugar, a medida de presença militar desses três países no Afeganistão. Num segundo momento, a dimensão técnica dos projetos, especialmente de infraestrutura (implicações para a segurança, permeabilidade social e política; e os aspectos técnicos e estratégicos). E em terceiro, a importância das elites e a fragmentação étnica no Afeganistão são consideradas como fatores essenciais para entender a aceitação e a viabilidade política dos projetos. Nesse aspecto, a pesquisa também avalia como a criação de agências para atender esses projetos favorece o conjunto de burocracias e influência institucional de cada um dos três concorrentes regionais. Por fim, nessas variáveis são consideradas as decisões de política externa de Estados Unidos, China e Rússia para o Afeganistão, assim como o modo com que países vizinhos (Irã, Paquistão e Índia) servem como fatores de influência na política doméstica afegã. A pesquisa tem caráter qualitativo, é de tipo exploratório-descritivo e se utiliza do método hipotético-dedutivo e do rastreamento de processo para expor ao máximo o estudo de caso escolhido. Como resultado, é oferecida uma melhor contextualização da atual competição regional; e as relações de poder manifestas no caso afegão sugerem a proeminência da liderança regional dos Estados Unidos a partir do Afeganistão, devido à presença militar norte-americana no país, inibindo as tentativas de China e Rússia de aumentar sua influência na região. / This thesis undertakes a prospective analysis of the possibilities for stabilization of Afghanistan from the regional projects of the United States, China and Russia through the lens of the theories of international political change, hegemonic stability, neoclassical realism, offensive realism and neofunctionalism. After the 2009 announcement of withdrawal of the United States troops from Afghanistan by 2014, the region has been showing modifications in its patterns of power relations. There are evidences of an ongoing competition for control of Afghan flow routes, energy transmission lines, resources and markets between the aforementioned actors, also demonstrated by the different reconstruction projects that these three countries offer to Afghanistan. The aim is to better understand how the competition for regional political leadership occurs among these actors through their different projects for reconstruction and integration of Afghanistan in the region, and what is the importance of the country in the regional power competition. For that, the analysis conducts descriptive inferences. First, it studies the measure of military presence of these three countries in Afghanistan. Second, it analyzes the technical dimensions of the projects, especially of infrastructure (and its implications towards security, social and political permeability, and the technical and strategic aspects). And third, the importance of elites and ethnic fragmentation within Afghanistan are considered as essential factors to understand the acceptance and political feasibility of the projects. In this respect, the research assesses how the creation of agencies to attend these projects favors the set of bureaucracies and institutional leverage for each of the three regional contenders. Finally, in these variables are considered the foreign policy decisions of the United States, China and Russia to Afghanistan, as well as the manner in which neighboring countries (India, Pakistan and Iran) serve as factors of influence in the Afghan domestic politics. So this is a qualitative and also exploratory and descriptive research that uses the hypothetical-deductive method and process tracing technique to expose the most of the selected case study. As a result, it is offered a better contextualization of the current regional competition; and the power relations expressed in the Afghan case suggest the prominence of the regional leadership of the United States from Afghanistan, due to the U.S. military presence in the country, inhibiting attempts from China and Russia to increase their influence in the region.

Esta dissertação realiza uma análise prospectiva das possibilidades de estabilização do Afeganistão a partir dos projetos regionais de Estados Unidos, China e Rússia, através das teorias da mudança política internacional e da estabilidade hegemônica, do realismo neoclássico, do realismo ofensivo e do neofuncionalismo. Após o anúncio de 2009 de retirada das tropas dos Estados Unidos do Afeganistão para 2014, a região vem apresentando modificações nos padrões de relações de poder. Há evidências de uma competição em curso pelo controle das rotas de escoamento, linhas de transmissão de energia, recursos e mercados afegãos entre os atores citados, sendo também demonstrada pelos diferentes projetos de reconstrução que esses três países propõem ao Afeganistão. O objetivo é melhor entender como a competição pela liderança política regional ocorre entre esses atores através dos diferentes projetos de reconstrução e integração do Afeganistão na região e qual é a importância deste país no jogo de poder regional. Para isso, a análise realiza inferências descritivas. Em primeiro lugar, a medida de presença militar desses três países no Afeganistão. Num segundo momento, a dimensão técnica dos projetos, especialmente de infraestrutura (implicações para a segurança, permeabilidade social e política; e os aspectos técnicos e estratégicos). E em terceiro, a importância das elites e a fragmentação étnica no Afeganistão são consideradas como fatores essenciais para entender a aceitação e a viabilidade política dos projetos. Nesse aspecto, a pesquisa também avalia como a criação de agências para atender esses projetos favorece o conjunto de burocracias e influência institucional de cada um dos três concorrentes regionais. Por fim, nessas variáveis são consideradas as decisões de política externa de Estados Unidos, China e Rússia para o Afeganistão, assim como o modo com que países vizinhos (Irã, Paquistão e Índia) servem como fatores de influência na política doméstica afegã. A pesquisa tem caráter qualitativo, é de tipo exploratório-descritivo e se utiliza do método hipotético-dedutivo e do rastreamento de processo para expor ao máximo o estudo de caso escolhido. Como resultado, é oferecida uma melhor contextualização da atual competição regional; e as relações de poder manifestas no caso afegão sugerem a proeminência da liderança regional dos Estados Unidos a partir do Afeganistão, devido à presença militar norte-americana no país, inibindo as tentativas de China e Rússia de aumentar sua influência na região. / This thesis undertakes a prospective analysis of the possibilities for stabilization of Afghanistan from the regional projects of the United States, China and Russia through the lens of the theories of international political change, hegemonic stability, neoclassical realism, offensive realism and neofunctionalism. After the 2009 announcement of withdrawal of the United States troops from Afghanistan by 2014, the region has been showing modifications in its patterns of power relations. There are evidences of an ongoing competition for control of Afghan flow routes, energy transmission lines, resources and markets between the aforementioned actors, also demonstrated by the different reconstruction projects that these three countries offer to Afghanistan. The aim is to better understand how the competition for regional political leadership occurs among these actors through their different projects for reconstruction and integration of Afghanistan in the region, and what is the importance of the country in the regional power competition. For that, the analysis conducts descriptive inferences. First, it studies the measure of military presence of these three countries in Afghanistan. Second, it analyzes the technical dimensions of the projects, especially of infrastructure (and its implications towards security, social and political permeability, and the technical and strategic aspects). And third, the importance of elites and ethnic fragmentation within Afghanistan are considered as essential factors to understand the acceptance and political feasibility of the projects. In this respect, the research assesses how the creation of agencies to attend these projects favors the set of bureaucracies and institutional leverage for each of the three regional contenders. Finally, in these variables are considered the foreign policy decisions of the United States, China and Russia to Afghanistan, as well as the manner in which neighboring countries (India, Pakistan and Iran) serve as factors of influence in the Afghan domestic politics. So this is a qualitative and also exploratory and descriptive research that uses the hypothetical-deductive method and process tracing technique to expose the most of the selected case study. As a result, it is offered a better contextualization of the current regional competition; and the power relations expressed in the Afghan case suggest the prominence of the regional leadership of the United States from Afghanistan, due to the U.S. military presence in the country, inhibiting attempts from China and Russia to increase their influence in the region.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / In pursuit of the objectives of the U.S. National Security Strategy and the National Military Strategy, the U.S. Armed Forces require access to military and logistics facilities overseas to be able to support and sustain its combat power projection. Access to these places translates into capabilities. An American military forward presence in time of peace as well as during a regional crisis lends credibility to U.S. diplomacy. Moreover, access to forward locations is expedient when engaging transnational threats or supporting humanitarian missions, e.g., the South and Southeast Asia tsunami relief operations. This thesis analyzes the political opposition to U.S. military presence in Thailand and the Philippines. The historical context that led to the development of this opposition is examined in detail. The rationale of those who oppose, as well as those who support, American military presence is clearly delineated. By understanding the sensitive political issues, U.S. military planners and operators can adapt base access strategies according to the existing political climate in these two countries. The politics unique to each environment will dictate the combination of "basing" approaches tailored to meet the U.S. military objectives as well as the public diplomacy required to support them. / Major (Select), United States Air Force

La rencontre historique entre Abdul Aziz Ibn Saoud et le président américain Franklin D. Roosevelt à bord de l’U.S.S Quincy en mer rouge en février 1945, donna lieu à l’instauration des fondements d’une véritable alliance à long terme, basée sur des intérêts communs très forts entre l’Arabie Saoudite et les Etats-Unis. Le royaume a joué d’ailleurs un rôle important dans l’endiguement du nationalisme arabe et dans l’empêchement de toute pénétration soviétique au Moyen-Orient. Il a joué également un rôle central dans l’endiguement de la révolution islamique iranienne de Khomeiny. Cette alliance va mettre cependant du temps pour atteindre le degré au quelle elle est arrivée lors de la guerre du Golfe de 1990-1991, qui a eu comme résultat une présence militaire américaine permanente sur le sol saoudien et la radicalisation de l’opposition islamiste. Les attentats du 11 septembre 2001, qui ont constitué un véritable choc pour les deux pays, provoquèrent un profond malaise dans les relations américano-saoudiennes. Riyad s’est trouvée dans une situation délicate, quinze des dix neuf pirates de l’air étaient Saoudiens ainsi que le chef d’al-Qaida, Oussama Ben Laden. On assista à une détérioration des relations entre les deux pays et une grande suspicion qui eut du mal à se dissiper, malgré les déclarations de bonne volonté des dirigeants des deux pays. Soumise à d’énormes pressions américaines, l’Arabie Saoudite lança une série de réformes en vue de rassurer Washington et faire face également à une situation très compliquée sur le plan interne (problèmes socio-économiques, le rôle de l’institution religieuse wahhabite, l’extrémisme religieux, droits de la minorité chiite, la question de succession…). Le réchauffement constaté dans les relations entre les deux pays à partir de 2003, qui culmina avec l’instauration du « dialogue stratégique » en 2005, laissa rapidement place à une graduelle prise de distance entre Riyad et Washington à propos de plusieurs dossiers régionaux (la situation en Irak, les ambitions régionales ainsi que le programme nucléaire et balistique de l’Iran, le processus de paix, la Syrie…). Cette prise de distance s’est confirmée avec l’éclatement du «printemps arabe » et le lancement par les Etats-Unis d’une nouvelle stratégie, axée sur un désengagement de la puissance américaine vers la zone du Pacifique. / The Historical meeting between Adul Aziz Ibn Saoud and the US President, Franklin D. Roosevelt on bord of U.S.S Quincy in the Red Sea at February, 1945, had set up a real long standing Alliance based on a strong common Interests between Saudi Arabia and the United States. It will take a time for this Alliance to be at the level it had during the Gulf War (1990-1991), Wich had as result a permanent US Military presence in the Kingdom and the radicalization of Islamist Opposition. The 9/11 Attacks, which was a real Choc for the two Countries and provocated an Embarassment in the US- Saudi relations. Riyad was in a delicate situation, Fifteen of the Nineteen Hijackers of September 9, 11 was Saudis such as head of Al-Qaeda Oussama Ben Laden. We assisted then to a deterioration of the relations between the two Countries and a great Suspicion although some declarations of good Intentions by leaders of two Countries. Subject of a tremendous US pressures, the Saudi Arabia has inaugurated a series of Reforms to reassure Washington and to face a complicated internal situation (Socio-economic problems, the role of the Wahhabi religious Institution, religious Extremism, rights of Chia minority, the problem of succession). The warming of the relations between the two Countries by 2003 wich culminated with the instauration of « Strategic Dialogue » in 2005, made rapidly room to a gradual taken distance between Riyad and Washington about some Regional matters (Iraqi situation, the regional ambitions just as the Nuclear and Balistic program of Ira ; Peace Process ; Syria…). This taken distance is confirmed by the events of « Arab Spring » and the New American Strategy of disengagement to the Pacific Zone.