Magíster en Gestión de Operaciones. Ingeniero Civil Industrial / Los principales antecedentes y la motivación del presente trabajo provienen de la teoría de Assortment, los modelos de elección discreta y los procesos de Social Learning. Se apunta a reunir parte de la vasta literatura en torno a estos temas, proponiendo un modelo matemático que incorpore el feedback de los consumidores en la elección del surtido de productos a ofrecer por parte de un vendedor. El modelo propuesto incluye un comerciante minorista quien se enfrenta a una secuencia finita de clientes, los que tienen la opción de escoger alguno de los productos ofrecidos por el vendedor. En caso de comprar alguno, descubren su calidad y la reportan de manera pública, siendo esta información utilizada por futuros consumidores en su proceso de decisión mediante actualización bayesiana de sus creencias. Estos reportes a la vez permiten al retailer - quien sólo puede ofrecer una cantidad limitada de productos - optimizar su oferta, escogiendo aquel conjunto de alternativas que le entregue un mayor beneficio esperado. La manera natural para abordar el problema de optimización de assortment enfrentado por el vendedor es mediante Programación Dinámica Estocástica, al tratarse de una situación en tiempo discreto donde período a período se debe tomar una decisión ante un determinado estado del sistema. Sin embargo, el número de estados posibles aumenta explosivamente en función de los parámetros considerados, volviéndose un problema virtualmente imposible de resolver en instancias realistas. Es por ello que se opta por Programación Dinámica Aproximada, proponiéndose 3 heurísticas que permiten obtener resultados en contextos en los cuales no es posible optimizar de manera exacta. A modo de referencia, se compara el rendimiento de las heurísticas con el de una estrategia bajo la cual el vendedor no considera las evaluaciones hechas por los clientes, ni la incidencia de sus decisiones en períodos futuros. La diferencia en los beneficios llega a ser enorme, observándose en los experimentos realizados aumentos superiores a 300% al utilizar alguno de los algoritmos sugeridos, en vez de obviar la información disponible. Esto no solo valida la calidad de los métodos heurísticos propuestos, sino que sobre todo ilustra la importancia de considerar el feedback de los consumidores. / Este trabajo ha sido parcialmente financiado por CONICYT

The number of elderly is increasing; to meet their transportation needs, it is important to clearly understand their travel patterns and preferences. Since travel patterns and preferences depend on socio-demographic and other factors, it is essential to identify these factors first to understand the travel behavior of the elderly. The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze the travel patterns and preferences of the elderly age 65 and above using 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data. This thesis presents a detailed descriptive analysis of 2009 NHTS data to understand the travel patterns of the elderly. Along with a descriptive analysis, a multinomial logit model and a mixed- multinomial logit model are estimated to explore the factors associated with the overall travel preferences of the elderly and to identify individuals among the elderly who are the least mobile and at risk for social isolation. The analysis results indicate the differences in the trip characteristics between the elderly and non-elderly. Variation is found even among the different groups of the elderly. The model estimation results show the presence of different travel preferences among the elderly and identify those individuals among the elderly who are immobile for longer periods (e.g., a week) and at risk for social isolation. Elderly individuals with different travel preferences should be considered separately in research to determine the appropriate outcomes that can help transportation planners and policy makers improve planning and policy related to elderly individuals.

住宅選擇是每一個家戶都會面臨到的問題，過去文獻發現購屋者先選擇租屋或購屋，若決定購屋，則先決定於何區位購屋，然後再決定購買何種房屋類型之房屋，然而卻未曾提及購屋者於不同市場類型住宅間之選擇。預售屋、新成屋以及中古屋等不同市場類型之住宅，各自隱含不同的效用及風險，影響著購屋者之選擇，因此本研究試圖討論購屋者於不同市場類型住宅間之選擇與偏好。 本研究採用內政部營建署「住宅需求動向調查」資料，利用混合多項羅吉特模型探討不同限制條件下，預售屋、新成屋與中古屋之個體選擇行為。實證結果顯示，投資者較偏好於購買知覺風險較高之預售屋，期待以高知覺風險換取高的報酬；教育程度較高者，因對居住品質要求愈高，因此傾向於選擇設備新穎之預售屋與新成屋；家戶平均月所得較高之購屋者，負擔能力較高，因此選擇總價較高之預售屋機率較高，其次為新成屋。此外，搜尋頻率愈高者，選擇預售屋之機率愈高，因預售屋無實體存在，預售屋購屋者為降低其知覺風險，將花費更高之搜尋成本。在價格彈性分析部分，實證結果顯示預售屋之競爭力最高，但預售屋之受衝擊力亦最高，而中古屋之競爭力於三種市場類型中居次，但中古屋衝擊力最小，因此，當單價屬性發生變動時，較不影響中古屋購屋者之選擇，但卻大幅影響預售屋購屋者之選擇機率。 / Every household would face housing choice, the past housing choice study founded that households decided tenure choice first, if they decides to buy a house, they first decided on what location, and then decided what type of housing to buy, but it has not been mentioned the housing choice among different residential market types. Pre-sale houses, newly constructed houses and existing houses implied different effectiveness and risks, affecting the choice of homebuyers. This article tried to discuss homeowners’ choice among different residential market types. This study use Construction and Planning Agency, "Housing Demand Survey of 2009" data, use mixed multinomial logit model, investigated under different constraints, housing choice behavior among pre-sale houses, newly constructed houses and existing houses. The empirical results showed that investors prefer higher perceived risk in buying pre-sale housing, looking for a high perceived risk and high rewards; higher education level, due to the higher quality requirements for living, so they preferred pre-sale houses and newly constructed houses. Homebuyers which have higher average monthly household income, have more affordable ability, so the probability of choosing pre-sale houses are much higher, followed by the newly constructed houses. In addition, the higher search frequency were more likely to choose pre-sale houses because pre-sale houses for sale no physical presence, pre-sale housing homebuyers in order to reduce their perceived risk, would spend more search costs. In the price elasticity analysis, empirical results showed that the pre-sale houses had the highest competitiveness, but the impact force was also the highest, while the existing houses market, the competitiveness of the third types was the second place, and the competitiveness of the existing houses was the smallest. Thus, when a change in unit price attribute, does not affect existing houses homebuyers, but significantly affected the choice probability of pre-sale houses homebuyers.

Ce travail de recherche traite de la problématique des transports dans les villes d’Indonésie, Jakarta et Bandung, mais également de la grande concurrence modale du trajet Jakarta-Bandung et Bandung-Jakarta. Les préférences des passagers sont des variables très importantes à connaître en raison de leurs impacts pour choisir un mode de transport parmi d’autres. Dans les transports, le modèle Logit est largement utilisé comme une méthode pour aborder la problématique du choix de transport multimodal comportant de multiples variables, mais dans la présente recherche, ces modèles ne sont pas appropriés pour la résolution de nos problèmes, car il y a des variables particulières à identifier et à prendre en compte. Par conséquent, nous avons développé pour nos besoins le modèle « Logit Mixed Multinomial Adapté (LMMA) » comme outil dédié à l’analyse décisionnelle dans le choix des modes de transport des passagers. La première partie de nos travaux de recherches porte sur l’identification et la compréhension des problèmes de transports intra-cité d’origine et de destination pour le choix du mode de transport entre Jakarta et Bandung (et puis entre Bandung et Jakarta). La seconde partie concerne le processus de décision final en proposant et en analysant les résultats d’un questionnaire adressé à de nombreux utilisateurs de la liaison Jakarta-Bandung (et Bandung-Jakarta). L’analyse permet pour chaque situation d’origine et de destination, et en tenant compte des services offerts par chaque mode inter-cité, d’identifier quel est le mode le plus compétitif. / An ideal city or intercity transport system is one where all the transport networks, involving in general different modes of transport, could serve together the cities connections to fulfill a passenger demand and satisfaction. Each transport network should have a logical layout (as possible with minimum discontinuities) to meet the required demands. Also in that ideal system, the different modes of transport should not only have their own good performances but also the exchange between modes should be done with harmony. The conditions as mentioned above are worldwide challenges. The present work deals with the transportation problematic between two Indonesian cities, and also with the high modal competition on the Jakarta-Bandung corridor. On that corridor, road transport is currently the main demanding mode for passengers transportation. The airlines cannot compete and discontinued their operations to this route. Nowadays, railway transport is decaying. Passengers preferences are the main variables for the final modal choice. It is necessary to know preferences due to their decisions impacts to choose one mode over the others. Those preferences are in fact not simple to express in a complex city and intercity transport system. In transportation, the Logit model is widely used as a method to explore the problematic of modal choices involving a lot of different variables. There are several Logit models already developed, such as “General Extreme Value”, “Probit”, and “Nested model”, but in this research, they are not compatible to solve our defined problems because there are some particular identified variables to be taken into account. Therefore we propose the "Adapted Mixed Multinomial Logit (AMML)" Model as a tool for analysis towards passenger's decision in modal choices. On the Jakarta-Bandung corridor, modal choices are influenced by the encountered problems in intercity transport at origin and destination. One part on this research deals with identification and understanding of the intracity transport problems of origin and destination on the choice of transport mode in Jakarta-Bandung corridor (Jakarta-Bandung and Bandung-Jakarta direction). The second part of this research deals with the final decision process by analyzing the results of questionnaires addressed to many users of the Jakarta-Bandung corridor. The five main variables of the last questionnaire are travel time, overall cost, security conditions, quality of travel information and connectivity conditions relevant to intercity transport and intracities transport conditions as well. After validation of the questionaires, this research uses the AMML model to get final decision result by comparing one mode among three intercity transport mode (train, minibus, and car) using the values of the variables. Taking into account the characteristics of each intercity mode of transportation, the analysis identifies the most competitive intercity transport mode for each situation from departure city to arrival city. Using alternative public and private transport modes policies, one could in the future modify passenger choice on intercity transport mode. Therefore, this study is relevant for improving of intracity and intercity transport systems.