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Abstract The fertility rate of Taiwan has been decreased year by year,a ministry of the interior announced the number of new born baby which was a record low below 200 thousand;a ministry of education proposed the bill of integrating kindergartens and nuesery schools to the legislative yuan for the first reading,it will be legally public school to recruit kids who from 0~6 years old,at the same time,the requisitions of operating threshold to private kindergarten owners has raised,otherwise the subsidies for tuition will be rescind;the government established policy of downward extension of one year compulsory education,but the big class(5~6) kids are the largest proportion for most of private kindergartens;individual counties to implement the nation primary free after school,others will follow a succession like this. Meanwhile, the same language and same race with China which provided an opportunity for a large fertile soil in China to extend business advantage which successful operating kindergartens or/and after schools in Taiwan.Especially, the progress and the increase in GDP per-capital in China for past ten years,it means ¡§Education¡¨really an one of ten great future industries.At this moment,the Taiwan business entrances the China market that will go along with higher cost and risk,if no any unique¡Bcreative and differential business model with,it¡¦s hard to success.As a result,for studing the business model-¡yone-stop shopping¡zto face the giant China educational market in this thesis,by case study¡Bdeep interview the CEO of development successful enterprise in China¡Agathering the raw data compare with myself studied and experiences in China fied work,combining with 5 forces analysis and investment results in order to go up the successful probability of such a business model. By the assessment¡Bstructure and risk management in this thesis, expects to provide a different idea or strategy thinking to accessible innovation model, therefore bring a strong sense of mission and enhance the self-motivation throughout the organization to build up the win-win prospects for both institute and employees. Keyword¡Gintegrating kindergartens and nuesery schools¡Bone-stop shopping¡B 5 forces analysis¡BGDP per-capital¡Binvestment results¡C

Computer technology is growing fast in recent years. Modeling technique is used in predicting or in planning engineering works and even in preventing disaster. Modeling is widely used in many domains and unmanned Real-time online operation modeling systems on prediction become popular. Model may become inaccurate due to a number of uncertainties in the approximation and by numerical reasons. Data Assimilation technique is developed to solve this problem. Measured data is used to improve the model results. In this research, the Cressman scheme was chosen as the data assimilation scheme and used for correcting the modeling system. An idealized model was constructed first as Taiwan Strait. In order to test the stability if data assimilation system several geographical variations and data availability cases were designed, eg adding varying bottom topography, an island added in the domain, different measurement data locations. In order to test the model sensibilities an error was inserted to the boundaries. Model results were first corrected with data assimilation system for a period of time, a Harmonic Analysis was, then, used for reanalysis the corrected time series on the boundaries. The new boundary condition is used in the new model run for making predictions. A true topography and island system as Taiwan Strait was tested with the true astronomical tide as the boundary input. The data assimilation system using the Cressman scheme could reduce the RMSE effectively. The factor that affects the efficiency of the data assimilation system is the number and the location of the measurement data.

This research focuses on characterizing a potato with extra sugar content and identifying the location and depth of the extra sugar content using the active thermography imaging technique. The extra sugar content of the potato is an important problem for potato growers and potato chip manufacturers. Extra sugar content could result in diseases or wounds in the potato tuber. In general, potato tubers with low sugar content are considered as having a higher quality. The inspection system and general methodologies characterizing extra sugar content will be presented in this study. The average heating rate obtained from the thermal image analysis is the major factor in characterization procedures. Using information on the average heating rate, the probability of achieving a potato with extra sugar content may be predicted using the logistic regression model. In addition, neural networks are also used to identify the potato with extra sugar contents. The correct rate for identifying a potato with extra sugar content in it can reach 85%. The location of extra sugar content can also be found using the logistic regression model. Results show the overall correct rate predicting the extra sugar content location with a resolution of 20 by 20 pixels is 91%. In predicting the extra sugar content depth, amounts exceeds 2/3 inches are not detectable by analyzing thermal images. The depth of extra sugar content can be discriminated in 0.3 inch increments with a high rate of accuracy (87.5%).

This study investigates the degree to which the cumulative risk index predicted school readiness in a Head Start population. In general, the reviewed studies indicated the cumulative risk model was efficacious in predicting adverse developmental outcomes. This study built on this literature by investigating how child, parent, and family risk factors predicted school readiness in Head Start children using two statistical models. Specific aims of this study included identifying 1) to what degree multiple predictors contributed to school readiness and 2) to what degree the cumulative risk index contributed to school readiness. Participants included 176 Head Start children ages 3 to 5 years. Data were analyzed using multivariate regression to determine if the cumulative risk model was a stronger predictor of school readiness than any risk factor in isolation. Hierarchical regression was also utilized to determine if individual risk factors contributed anything above and beyond the sum, the cumulative risk index. Multiple regression analysis revealed that older age and previous enrollment in Head Start predicted higher scores, while low income predicted lower scores, as did taking the test in Spanish. Analysis also revealed that higher scores on the cumulative risk index predicted lower test scores. The analysis revealed that the individual risk factors did not contribute to the model above and beyond the cumulative risk index. Adding the individual risk factors did not account for more variance than using gender, age, and the cumulative risk index as the only predictors. Similarly, the cumulative risk index did not account for more variance than using age and gender as the only predictors. The current study adds empirical support to the continued use of the cumulative risk model in predicting adverse developmental outcomes.

The lack of adequate transportation infrastructure in Brazil has been a bottleneck for the soybean producers for many years. Moreover, the costly inland transportation incurred from this bottleneck has resulted in a loss in competitiveness for Brazil compared to other exporting countries, especially the United States. If transportation costs are reduced by introducing improved infrastructure, Brazil is expected to increase its competitiveness in the world soybean market by increasing its exports and producer revenues. On the other hand, the United States and other significant soybean competing exporting countries are expected to lose market share as well as producer revenues. This study uses a spatial equilibrium model to analyze transportation infrastructure improvements proposed by the Brazilian government vis-à-vis enhance the nation’s soybean transportation network. The analyzed transportation improvements are: (i) the development of the Tapajós-Teles Pires waterway; (ii) the completion of the BR- 163 highway; (iii) the construction of the Mortes-Araguaia waterway; (iv) the Ferronorte railroad expansion to Rondonópolis and the linkage between the city of Rio Verde to Uberlândia; and (v) the Ferropar railroad expansion to the city of Dourados. The model specifies the Brazilian inland transportation network and the international ocean shipments. The model divides Brazil into 18 excess supply regions and 8 excess demand regions. The competing exporting countries are the United States, Argentina, Rest of South America (Bolivia, Paraguay, and Uruguay), Canada, and India. The importing countries are composed of China, European Union, Southeast Asia, Mexico, and the Rest of the World. Results suggest these proposed transportation improvements yield potential noteworthy gains to Brazil with producer revenues increasing more than $500 million and exports increasing by 177 thousand metric tons. Consequently, the world soybean price declines by $1.16 per metric ton and producer revenues and exports in the United States fall by 63 thousand metric tons and $104.89 million, respectively. Although the absolute gains in price, revenues, and exports for Brazil are considerable, they only represent in relative changes 1.48, 2.35, and 0.32 percent, respectively. Similarly, the loss in price, revenue, and export value for the United States is also low, declining by 0.23, 0.23, and 0.12 percent, respectively.

Since Hubbert proposed the "peak oil" concept to forecast ultimate recovery of crude oil for the U.S. and the world, there have been countless debates over the timing of peak world conventional oil production rate and ultimate recovery. From review of the literature, forecasts were grouped into those that are like Hubbert's with an imminent peak, and those that do not predict an imminent peak. Both groups have bases for their positions. Viewpoints from the two groups are polarized and the rhetoric is pointed and sometimes personal. A big reason for the large divide between the two groups is the failure of both to acknowledge the significant uncertainty in their estimates. Although some authors attempt to quantify uncertainty, most use deterministic methods and present single values, with no ranges. This research proposes that those that do attempt to quantify uncertainty underestimate it significantly. The objective of this thesis is to rigorously quantify the uncertainty in estimates of ultimate world conventional oil production and time to peak rate. Two different methodologies are used. The first is a regression technique based on historical production data using Hubbert's model and the other methodology uses mathematical models. However, I conduct the analysis probabilistically, considering errors in both the data and the model, which results in likelihood probability distributions for world conventional oil production and time to peak rate. In the second method, I use a multiple-experts analysis to combine estimates from the multitude of papers presented in the literature, yielding an overall distribution of estimated world conventional oil production. Giving due consideration to uncertainty, Hubbert-type mathematical modeling results in large uncertainty ranges that encompass both groups of forecasts (imminent peak and no imminent peak). These ranges are consistent with those from the multiple-experts analysis. In short, the industry does not have enough information at this time to say with any reliability what the ultimate world conventional oil production will be. It could peak soon, somewhere in the distant future, or somewhere in between. It would be wise to consider all of these possible outcomes in planning and making decisions regarding capital investment and formulation of energy policy.

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Study objectives and significance Generally, patients go to hospitals or clinical offices for seeking health care service. However, some studies reveal that old patient or those who have disability would get hurt and expose in some dangerous situation, such as falls and infection. As the reasons, the rehabilitation delivery model, which sends the service to patients¡¦ community, is needed. The community delivering-rehabilitation model that this study focuses on integrates hospital center and retirement home. This study is to compare the community delivering-rehabilitation model and general delivery model that patients go to hospital for rehabilitation service. Data and methods In one-year study duration from Nov. 1, 2002 to Oct. 31, 2003, the Barthel Index score from two delivery models were collected every 3 months. On the other hand, patients¡¦ rehabilitation costs were collected once 3 months, too. The study unit is individual unit. Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) was used here to be a standard comparing tool. CEA was computed by dividing the cost that patient spent in 3 months into the Barthel Index score which patient improved his functional status. Independent variables include environmental factors and structural factors The Environment factors include rehabilitation delivery model and the patient-therapist ratio. Structural factors include chain-affiliation status, instrumental volume and status. The General Estimating Equation was used here for comparing longitudinal dependent data. Results The study reveals that environmental factors and structural factors affect the performance of rehabilitation units. Environmental factors positively affect the rehabilitation effect. Structural factors negatively affect the rehabilitation effect. On the other hand, Environmental factors positively affect the rehabilitation efficiency. Structural factors negatively affect the rehabilitation efficiency. Conclusion and the project¡¦s relevance to public health The community delivering-rehabilitation model has better rehabilitation effect, but on the aspect of efficiency, is not as good as general delivery model. However, the community delivering-rehabilitation model has good accessibility to patient. It also concerns patient safety. If the model can improve its efficiency, the promotion of health can be further implied in community delivering-rehabilitation model.

Abstract Over the last decade, business and industry in Taiwan have been growing rapidly, but increasing amount of the wastes has relatively been created by people for various reasons. Thus, with the rapid growth of the wastes and the snowballing difficulty of getting place for landfill, incineration without doubt has become the way that wears best to solve such annoyed problem. Furthermore, the issue of waste disposal is now the most important problem to cope with for our government. Owing to the shortage of budget, our government allowed the private sectors to invest in the BOT projects of incinerator to meet and satisfy the growing needs of handling the increasing amount of garbage. According to the result of our research, the BOT projects operated by private companies are very successful, and receive positive responses in terms of reducing the expenses and costs, compared to our government¡¦s factories. It would be a new direction or choice in waste disposal, and would be create much profit for people and government. Keyword¡GBOT¡Boperate model¡Bperformance evaluation