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<p>Many industrial organizations invest heavily in modeling and simulation (M&S) to support the design process. The primary business motivation for M&S is as a cheaper and faster alternative for obtaining information towards a better understanding of system behavior or to help with decision making. However, M&S predictions are known to be inexact because models and simulations are mathematical approximations of reality. To ensure that models are applicable for their intended use, organizations must collect evidence that the M&S is credible. Verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) are the established methods for collecting this evidence. Structured frameworks for building credibility in M&S through VVUQ methods exist in the scientific literature but these frameworks and methods are generally not well developed, nor well implemented in industrial environments. The core motivation of this work is to help make existing VVUQ frameworks more suitable for industry.</p> <p>As part of this objective, this work proposes a new credibility assessment that turns VVUQ results into an intuitive, numerical decision-making metric. This credibility assessment, called the Credibility Index, identifies the important aspects of credibility, extracts the relevant VVUQ results, and converts the results into an overall Credibility Index score (CRED). This CRED score is unique for each specific prediction scenario and serves as an easy-to-digest measure of credibility. The Credibility Index builds upon widely accepted definitions of credibility, well-established VVUQ frameworks, and decision theory.</p> <p>The Credibility Index has been applied to several prediction scenarios for two publicly available benchmark problems and one Rolls-Royce funded subsystem case; all examples relate to the aerodynamic design of turbine-engine compressors. The results from these studies show how the Credibility Index serves as a decision-making metric, supplements traditional M&S outputs, and guides VVUQ efforts. A product feedback study, involving model end-users in industry, compared the Credibility Index to three other established credibility assessments; the study provides evidence that CRED consistently captures all key aspects of information quality when informing end-users on the credibility of model predictions. Due to the industry partnership, this research already has multiple avenues of practical impact, including implementation of the structured VVUQ and credibility framework in an industrial toolkit and workflow. </p>

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No description available.

Aujourd’hui, plus de 65% des sites pollués en France le sont par des COVs (BASOL), considérés comme étant très dangereux et toxiques pour l’homme et l’environnement. Cela nécessite d’utiliser des techniques de traitement pour restaurer les sites et limiter les risques de propagation vers les eaux souterraines. L’extraction multiphasique MPE est une méthode physique de traitement des COVs. Elle a plusieurs avantages : essentiellement économique, le fait de pouvoir être utilisée in-situ et le fait de permettre la remédiation simultanée de deux zones saturée et non saturée du sous-sol. L’objectif de cette thèse est d’étudier cette technique en développant un modèle mathématique qui permet de décrire l’écoulement multiphasiques des différentes phases, le transport et le transfert de masse entre ces phases. Deux sols sableux et un polluant modèles sont choisis et caractérisés. Des dispositifs expérimentaux sont utilisés pour l’étude de l’écoulement diphasique et multiphasique ainsi que l’étude de transfert de masse. Un modèle numérique est développé, il se compose de trois EDPs pour l’écoulement (gazeuse, aqueuse et PLNA) et quatre EDPs pour le transport/transfert de masse pour chaque composé. La validation du modèle MPE est réalisée par la vérification de différentes parties qui le constituent séparément. La partie de l’écoulement diphasique est vérifiée à travers les résultats d’expérience de drainage sur colonne 1D et sur des résultats issus de la littérature d’une cellule type Hele-show 2D. L’importance du choix des conditions aux limites est mise en évidence. La partie de l’écoulement triphasique est vérifiée à travers les résultats d’expériences d’infiltration sur cellule 2D, l’une réalisée au laboratoire et l’autre issue de la littérature. L’étude porte sur l’effet du choix des dimensions d’expériences de laboratoire sur l’extrapolation des résultats à l’échelle du terrain. La partie transport/transfert de polluant est vérifiée à travers des expériences d’extraction sous vide/Venting. Le coefficient de transfert est déterminé avec une meilleure précision que celle des modèles issus de la littérature. Enfin une simulation à l’échelle de terrain est effectuée avec le modèle MPE pour simuler la dépollution d’un site pollué selon un scénario supposé et développé par la MPE. Les limites de la méthode pour la dépollution de la frange capillaire sont mises en évidence. / Today, over 65% of polluted sites in France are by VOCs (BASOL), considered to be very dangerous and toxic to humans and the environment. This requires using treatment techniques to restore the sites and limit the risk of spread to groundwater. The multiphase extraction MPE is a physical method of soil VOCs treatment. It has several advantages: essentially economic, being able to be used in site and permitting the simultaneous remediation of both saturated and unsaturated zones. The objective of this thesis is to study this technique by developing a mathematical model to describe the multiphase flow of different phases, transport and mass transfer between these phases. Two sandy soils and a pollutant models are selected and characterized. Experimental devices are used to study the two-phase, multiphase flow and mass transfer. A numerical model is developed; it consists of three PDEs for the flow (gas, water and NAPL) and four PDEs to pollution transport/mass transfer for each compound. MPE Model validation is performed by the verification of different constituent parts separately. The two-phase flow is confirmed by the drainage experiment results of 1D column and of the results of the literature of a 2D Hele-show tank. The importance of the choice of boundary conditions is highlighted. The part of the three-phase flow is verified through the results of infiltration experiments on 2D tank, one conducted in the laboratory and the other of the literature. The study focuses on the effect of the choice of laboratory experiments dimensions on the extrapolation of results across the field. The transport/mass transfer part is verified by SVE/Venting experiments. The transfer coefficient is determined with a precision better than models from the literature. Finally a simulation at the field scale is carried out with the MPE model to simulate the remediation of polluted sites by MPE for a supposed scenario. The limitations of the method for remedying the capillary fringe are highlighted.

Dans les années à venir, l’industrie de l’aéronautique doit améliorer le contrôle thermique des composants et modules hautement intégrés. Les approches de refroidissement standard, utilisant l’air forcé ne sont plus utilisables. Il est donc nécessaire de développer de nouvelles technologies capables d’offrir des solutions compatibles avec ces nouvelles problématiques. Une revue bibliographique approfondie est présentée pour montrer les solutions existantes pour l’avionique. Les systèmes à changement de phase, tels que les boucles diphasiques capillaires (LHPs), sont très attractifs puisqu’ils peuvent être utilisés pour transporter la chaleur vers une grande surface d’un radiateur qui dissipera la chaleur vers le milieu ambiant. Une première famille de LHP, conçue et réalisée par la compagnie Atherm, et remplie avec du méthanol, est décrite. Deux autres familles de LHP sont également présentées. La première a été réalisée par la société ATHERM et a un condenseur et des lignes de transports modifiés, afin d’être intégrée sur une carte électronique existante. La deuxième famille, a été conçue et réalisée par l’Institut of Thermal Physics (ITP), sur la base de spécifications similaires. Un banc d’essai expérimental est conçu et réalisé pour tester ces systèmes. Les effets de la charge en fluide, baïonnette, et mèche secondaire, sont observés. Des tests d’orientation et d’accélération sont réalisés sur des LHPs intégrées dans un rack aéronautique. Même une certaine sensibilité aux orientations et accélérations est observée, les LHPs fonctionnement toujours jusqu’à l’accélération maximale testée de 6 G. Un modèle stationnaire d’une boucle diphasique basé sur une approche à plusieurs échelles est développé. Plusieurs niveaux de complexité et de précision peuvent être sélectionnés pour le modèle des composants individuels de la boucle, allant du modèle nodal au modèle 3D. Le modèle est validé avec les données expérimentales. Un bon accord entre les simulations numériques et les résultats expérimentaux est obtenu. Les résultats numériques montrent que la charge de fluide dans le réservoir affecte le comportement thermique de la LHP en modifiant la répartition des flux de chaleurs. Des gradients de température importants sont observés dans la plaque du condenseur, et un nouveau tracé de la ligne condenseur est proposé. Plusieurs modifications de l’évaporateur sont analysées. La diminution la plus importante de la résistance thermique de l’évaporateur est obtenue par une bonne disposition des rainures axiales de la mèche, associée à une semelle optimisée, ou à des rainures radiales. / In the coming years, the avionics industry will have to improve the thermal control of both existing and emerging highly integrated electronic components and modules. The standard cooling approaches using forced air are no longer applicable. It is necessary to develop new technologies being able to offer solutions compatible with those new problematic. An extensive literature review is presented to show the existing cooling solutions for avionics. Two-phase passive systems, such as LHPs are very attractive as they may be used as heat spreader, associated with a classical heat sink to dissipate the heat. A first family of LHP, designed and manufactured by the ATHERM Company and filled with methanol as the working fluid is described. Two other LHP families are also presented. The first one was manufactured by ATHERM and has modified condenser and transport line shapes, in order to be integrated into an existing electronic card. The second one was manufactured and designed by the Institute of Thermal Physics, on the same specification basis. An experimental setup is designed and built to test these LHPs. The effects of fluid fill charge, bayonet and secondary wick are observed. Orientation and acceleration tests are conducted on LHPs integrated within an avionic rack. Even if the LHPs exhibited sensitivity to orientation and acceleration, no failure of the LHP was observed up to the maximum applied acceleration (6 G). A steady state model of LHP based on a multi-level approach is developed. Various levels of complexity and precision can be selected for the model of the individual component, going from the nodal to the 3D model. The model is validated with experimental data from the laboratory tests. A good agreement is achieved between the experimental and the numerical data. The numerical results show that the fluid fill charge within the reservoir affects the thermal behavior of the LHP, by modifying the heat flux distribution. High temperature gradients are highlighted in the condenser plate and a redesign of its shape is proposed. Various modifications of the evaporator design are considered. The most important decrease of the evaporator thermal resistance is brought by a good disposition of the axial vapor grooves associated with an optimized saddle shape or radial vapor grooves.

Laser beam welding has been widely applied in different industrial sectors due to its unique advantages. However, there are still challenges, such as beam positioning in T-joint welding, and gap bridging in butt joint welding,especially in the case of varying gap width along a joint. It is expected that enabling more advanced control to a welding system, and obtaining more in-depth process knowledge could help to solve these issues. The aim of this work is to address such welding issues by a laser beam shaping technology using a novel deformable mirror together with computer vision methods and also to increase knowledge about the benefits and limitations with this approach. Beam shaping in this work was realized by a novel deformable mirror system integrated into an industrial processing optics. Together with a wave front sensor, a controlled adaptive beam shaping system was formed with a response time of 10 ms. The processes were monitored by a coaxial camera with selected filters and passive or active illumination. Conduction mode autogenous bead-on-plate welding and butt joint welding experiments have been used to understand the effect of beam shaping on the melt pool geometry. Circular Gaussian, and elliptical Gaussian shapes elongated transverse to and along the welding direction were studied. In-process melt pool images and cross section micrographs of the weld seams/beads were analyzed. The results showed that the melt pool geometry can be significantly modified by beam shaping using the deformable mirror. T-joint welding with different beam offset deviations relative to the center of the joint line was conducted to study the potential of using machine learning to track the process state. The results showed that machine learning can reach sufficient detection and estimation performance, which could also be used for on-line control. In addition, in-process and multidimensional data were accurately acquired using computer vision methods. These data reveal weaknesses of current thermo-fluid simulation model, which in turn can help to better understand and control laser beam welding. The obtained results in this work shows a huge potential in using the proposed methods to solve relevant challenges in laser beam welding. / Lasersvetsning används i stor utsträckning i olika industrisektorer på grund av dess unika fördelar. Det finns emellertid fortfarande utmaningar, såsom rätt positionering av laserstrålen vid genomträngningssvetsning av T-fogar och hantering av varierande spaltbredd längs fogen vid svetsning av stumfogar. Sådana problem förväntas kunna lösas med avancerade metoder för automatisering, metoder som också förväntas ge fördjupade kunskaper om processen. Syftet med detta arbete är att ta itu med dessa problem med hjälp av en teknik för lasereffektens fördelning på arbetsstycket, s.k. beam shaping. Det sker med hjälp av en ny typ av i realtid deformerbar spegel tillsammans med bildbehandling av kamerabilder från processen. För- och nackdelar med detta tillvägagångssätt undersöks.Beam shaping åstadkoms med hjälp av ny typ av deformerbart spegelsystem som integreras i en industriell processoptik. Tillsammans med en vågfrontsensor bildas ett adaptivt system för beam shaping med en svarstid på 10 ms. Processen övervakas av en kamera linjerad koaxialt med laserstrålen. För att kunna ta bilder av svetspunkten belyses den med ljus av lämplig våglängd, och kameran är försedd med ett motsvarande optiskt filter. Försök har utförts med svetsning utan tillsatsmaterial, direkt på plåtar, svetsning utan s.k. nyckelhål, för att förstå effekten av beam shaping på svetssmältans geometri. Gauss fördelade cirkulära och elliptiska former, långsträckta både tvärs och längs svetsriktningen har studerats. Bilder från svetssmältan har analyserats och även mikrostrukturen i tvärsnitt från de svetsade plåtarna. Resultaten visar att svetssmältans geometri kan modifieras signifikant genom beam shaping med hjälp av det deformerbara spegelsystemet. Genomträngningssvetsning av T-fogar med avvikelser relativt foglinjens centrum genomfördes för att studera potentialen i att använda maskininlärning för att fånga processens tillstånd. Resultaten visade att maskininlärning kan nå tillräcklig prestanda för detektering och skattning av denna avvikelse. Något som också kan användas för återkopplad styrning. Flerdimensionell processdata har samlats i realtid och analyserats med hjälp av bildbehandlingsmetoder.  Dessa data avslöjar brister i nuvarande simuleringsmodeller,vilket i sin tur hjälper till med att bättre förstå och styra lasersvetsning.Resultaten från detta arbete uppvisar en god potential i att använda de föreslagna metoderna för att lösa relevanta utmaningar inom lasersvetsning. / <p>Till licentiatuppsats hör 2 inskickade artiklar, som visas inte nu.</p>

This master´s thesis deals with the reseach of technologies using deep learning method, being able to use when processing image data. Specific focus of the work is to evaluate the suitability and effectiveness of deep learning when comparing two image input data. The first – theoretical – part consists of the introduction to neural networks and deep learning. Also, it contains a description of available methods, their benefits and principles, used for processing image data. The second - practical - part of the thesis contains a proposal a appropriate model of Siamese networks to solve the problem of comparing two input image data and evaluating their similarity. The output of this work is an evaluation of several possible model configurations and highlighting the best-performing model parameters.

L’ascomicete Guignardia bidwellii, agente causale del marciume nero della vite, è un patogeno economicamente importante in alcuni areali viticoli. La conoscenza, disponibile sul marciume nero dell’uva, è stata recuperata dalla letteratura, analizzata e sintetizzata per sviluppare un modello meccanicistico del ciclo di vita del patogeno, guidata dalle variabili meteorologiche e dalla fenologia della vite, e basata sull'analisi dei sistemi. Il modello è stato poi valutato per la sua capacità di rappresentare il sistema reale e la sua utilità per la comprensione di epidemie di marciume nero su foglie e grappoli in un vigneto del Nord Italia, nel 2013 al 2015. Successivamente, le mancanze di conoscenza sono state analizzate, studiate e quindi colmate attraverso specifici esperimenti. In un primo passo, le dinamiche dell’inoculo primario e dei modelli di dispersione (di entrambi ascospore e conidi) da mummie svernate sono state studiate in un vigneto sperimentale per tre anni. In un secondo passo, l'effetto della temperatura e dell'umidità sulla formazione di picnidi di G. bidwellii e la successiva estrusione di cirri, nelle lesioni su foglia, la produzione e la germinazione dei conidi (inoculo secondario), e la lunghezza del periodo di latenza sono stati studiati sia in condizioni di campo che in ambiente controllato. In un terzo passo, sono stati condotti studi in ambiente controllato per studiare la produzione di conidi di G. bidwellii sulle lesioni di foglie, influenzata da lavaggi ripetuti e alternando periodi di secco ed umido. Il modello epidemiologico sviluppato in questa tesi può essere utilizzata da viticoltori come strumento predittivo per la pianificazione di trattamenti fungicidi nei vigneti. / The ascomycete Guignardia bidwellii, causal agent of black-rot on grapevines, is an economically important pathogen in some viticultural areas. The available knowledge on black-rot of grape was retrieved from literature, analyzed, and synthesized to develop a mechanistic model of the life cycle of the pathogen, driven by weather and vine phenology, and based on the systems analysis. The model was then evaluated for its ability to represent the real system and its usefulness for understanding black-rot epidemics on leaves and bunches in a vineyard of north Italy, in 2013 to 2015. Thereafter, weaknesses in our knowledge were analysed and studied through specific experiments. In a first step, dynamics of primary inoculum and dispersal patterns (both ascospores and conidia) from overwintered grape mummies were investigated in an experimental vineyard during three years. In a second step, the effect of temperature and humidity on the formation of G. bidwellii pycnidia and the extrusion of cirri in grape leaf lesions, production and germination of conidia (secondary inoculum), and the length of the latency period were studied under both environmental and controlled conditions. In a third step, environmental-controlled studies were conducted to investigate the production course of G. bidwellii conidia on grape leaf lesions as influenced by repeated washing events and alternate dry and wet periods. The model developed in this thesis can be used by vinegrowers as a predictive tool for scheduling fungicide sprays in the vineyards.

Tato práce je zaměřena na odhad letových parametrů malého letounu, konkrétně letounu Evektor SportStar RTC. Pro odhad letových parametrů jsou použity metody "Equation Error Method", "Output Error Method" a metody rekurzivních nejmenších čtverců. Práce je zaměřena na zkoumání charakteristik aerodynamických parametrů podélného pohybu a ověření, zda takto odhadnuté letové parametry odpovídají naměřeným datům a tudíž vytvářejí předpoklad pro realizaci dostatečně přesného modelu letadla. Odhadnuté letové parametry jsou dále porovnávány s a-priorními hodnotami získanými s využitím programů Tornado, AVL a softwarovéverze sbírky Datcom. Rozdíly mezi a-priorními hodnotami a odhadnutými letovými paramatery jsou porovnány s korekcemi publikovanými pro subsonické letové podmínky modelu letounu F-18 Hornet.