The first two chapters are dedicated to the modeling and implementation of a stock-flow consistent framework that incorporates real estate as an asset in the portfolio of the household. The third chapter investigates the main determinants of mortgage repayment of Canadian households. This first chapter presents a five-sector stock-flow consistency growth model where the portfolio decision of the households includes their choice of how much real estate they are interested in holding. The primary aim of the chapter is to model the housing market using the stock-flow consistent approach to explain the current global financial problem triggered by the housing market. The model is then simulated to predict the behaviour of various variables and propose appropriate solutions to the financial problem in the hope of returning the economy to a suitable equilibrium. Households' portfolio consists of money deposits, bills, bank equities and real estate. The other sectors that interact with the household sector are the production firms, the banks, the central bank and the government. Aside from the household sector, the banking sector ends up holding some real estate equivalent to the amount of mortgages defaulted by the households. The supply of real estate from the production sector is therefore augmented by the additional ones held by the banks. The second chapter presents the implementation of the stock-flow consistency model of first chapter. The purpose of the chapter is to run a simulation of the model and experiment with shocks to determine the path of the economic variables of the model. Another objective in performing the experiments is to find policies for mitigating the housing crisis. The model is implemented using the Eviews computer modeling software and runs until a stationary steady state is achieved. Various shocks are applied to the baseline stationary state. The results of the monetary policy show that the mortgage rate shock is more effective in influencing the growth rate of the economy as well as controlling the real estate market. Government fiscal policy is also effective in regulating the housing market. A one-period temporary fiscal policy shock is even capable of generating permanent long run growth effects. Household expectations in future housing price increases or future high rates of housing returns have the effect of heating the real estate market without comparable increases in economic growth. Policy makers must keep these expectations in check. The third chapter analyzes the determinants of mortgage repayment options in Canada. With the freedom that comes with being debt-free and owning a home one will assume that households pay off their mortgages as soon as possible. However, there are factors that inhibit households from carrying out these payoffs. The study uses Canadian micro-level data to examine factors that drive households to default, prepay or continue to make regular mortgage payments. The research methodology uses multinomial (polytomous) logistic regression analyzes. The empirical results establish that the traditional mortgage related predictor variables for repayment are statistically significant with the expected signs. The results relating to the provinces are not significantly different from each other. The results did not however provide any significance in relation to mortgage rates and the number of children in the household.

This thesis investigated money supply behaviors in the ‘BRICS’ group from 1982 to 2012. It empirically analyzed causality relationships between related monetary indicators by using quarterly data and time series econometric methods. In four countries: Brazil, China, Russia (the period of 2004-2012) and South Africa (1982-1993), this study found money supply endogeneity evidence (bank loans cause the money supply, or there is bidirectional between these two). Other countries, India and the 1982-2003 period of Russia, money supply was found to be exogenous, i.e. money supply cause bank loans. Nonetheless, traditional Monetarian view still holds across the five economies in the short run. The findings reflected discretionary monetary policies targeting monetary aggregates in the short term, despite a neutral role of most central banks in the long run.

The first two chapters are dedicated to the modeling and implementation of a stock-flow consistent framework that incorporates real estate as an asset in the portfolio of the household. The third chapter investigates the main determinants of mortgage repayment of Canadian households. This first chapter presents a five-sector stock-flow consistency growth model where the portfolio decision of the households includes their choice of how much real estate they are interested in holding. The primary aim of the chapter is to model the housing market using the stock-flow consistent approach to explain the current global financial problem triggered by the housing market. The model is then simulated to predict the behaviour of various variables and propose appropriate solutions to the financial problem in the hope of returning the economy to a suitable equilibrium. Households' portfolio consists of money deposits, bills, bank equities and real estate. The other sectors that interact with the household sector are the production firms, the banks, the central bank and the government. Aside from the household sector, the banking sector ends up holding some real estate equivalent to the amount of mortgages defaulted by the households. The supply of real estate from the production sector is therefore augmented by the additional ones held by the banks. The second chapter presents the implementation of the stock-flow consistency model of first chapter. The purpose of the chapter is to run a simulation of the model and experiment with shocks to determine the path of the economic variables of the model. Another objective in performing the experiments is to find policies for mitigating the housing crisis. The model is implemented using the Eviews computer modeling software and runs until a stationary steady state is achieved. Various shocks are applied to the baseline stationary state. The results of the monetary policy show that the mortgage rate shock is more effective in influencing the growth rate of the economy as well as controlling the real estate market. Government fiscal policy is also effective in regulating the housing market. A one-period temporary fiscal policy shock is even capable of generating permanent long run growth effects. Household expectations in future housing price increases or future high rates of housing returns have the effect of heating the real estate market without comparable increases in economic growth. Policy makers must keep these expectations in check. The third chapter analyzes the determinants of mortgage repayment options in Canada. With the freedom that comes with being debt-free and owning a home one will assume that households pay off their mortgages as soon as possible. However, there are factors that inhibit households from carrying out these payoffs. The study uses Canadian micro-level data to examine factors that drive households to default, prepay or continue to make regular mortgage payments. The research methodology uses multinomial (polytomous) logistic regression analyzes. The empirical results establish that the traditional mortgage related predictor variables for repayment are statistically significant with the expected signs. The results relating to the provinces are not significantly different from each other. The results did not however provide any significance in relation to mortgage rates and the number of children in the household.

In the first chapter, I quantify the welfare effect of eliminating the U.S. capital income tax under international financial integration. I employ a two-country, heterogeneous-agent incomplete markets model calibrated to represent the U.S. and the rest of the world. Short-run and long-run factor price dynamics are key: after the tax reform, post-tax interest rate increases less under financial openness relative to autarky. Therefore the wealth-rich households gain less. Post-tax wages also fall less, so the wealth-poor are hurt less. Hence, the fraction in favor of the reform increases, although the majority still prefers the status quo. Aggregate welfare effect to the U.S. is a permanent 0.2 % consumption equivalent loss under financial openness which is 85.5 % smaller than the welfare loss under autarky. The second chapter aims to answer two questions: What helps forecast U.S. inflation? What causes the observed changes in the predictive ability of variables commonly used in forecasting US inflation? In macroeconomic analysis and inflation forecasting, the traditional Phillips curve has been widely used to exploit the empirical relationship between inflation and domestic economic activity. Atkeson and Ohanian (2001), among others, cast doubt on the performance of Phillips curve-based forecasts of U.S. inflation relative to naive forecasts. This indicates a difficulty for policy-making and private sectorâs long term nominal commitments which depend on inflation expectations. The literature suggests globalization may be one reason for this phenomenon. To test this, we evaluate the forecasting ability of global slack measures under an open economy Phillips curve. The results are very sensitive to measures of inflation, forecast horizons and estimation samples. We find however, terms of trade gap, measured as HP-filtered terms of trade, is a good and robust variable to forecast U.S. inflation. Moreover, our forecasts based on the simulated data from a workhorse new open economy macro (NOEM) model indicate that better monetary policy and good luck (i.e. a remarkably benign sample of economic shocks) can account for the empirical observations on forecasting accuracy, while globalization plays a secondary role. / text

The thesis tries to shed light on mechanisms that endanger the macro-financial stability of economies. For that purpose a modeling framework is set-up which allows for cyclical behavior on the macro level and does not automatically enforce monotonic convergence of the dynamics to a stable equilibrium. Thus, the assumption of rational expectation must be replaced by alternative expectation formation schemes which are more relevant from an empirical point of view. We start to put forth a modeling approach of a partial, but crucially important market for the whole economy. As we could learn from the great recession, activities in the housing market can trigger economy-wide crises when financial markets are highly interconnected and exert a lasting impact on real markets. The next step is to construct an integrated macro model which captures the interaction of real and financial markets with respect to possible destabilizing linkages. Policy instruments can work then as remedies as long as they are designed in a manner that takes account of the underlying feedback structure. Step by step the models are extended throughout the chapters by refinement of the macro-financial structure. A banking sector is introduced and many issues arising with this addition are discussed. After having addressed several configurations of the banking sector, the focus is shifted to the expectation formation of agents. Behavioral traders on the micro level then drive complex dynamics on the macro level, which eventually feedback on the distribution of different types of trading strategies. We also investigate the implications of such behavioral expectation formations for open economies. Finally, we look at potential instabilities that arise from the supply side of macroeconomies in the long run. A model with a differentiated labor market structure and an accumulation mechanism is used to display distributive cycle dynamics and their stability implications.

O estudo jurídico do sistema de pagamentos sob o enfoque do direito obrigacional requer exame prévio do fenômeno socioeconômico representado pela moeda, enquanto elemento fundamental da relação obrigacional de compra e venda, determinante do preço e objeto do pagamento. Antes, porém, da análise do pagamento e de seus instrumentos jurídicos, ou seja, da moeda (em sentido largo) como efeito jurídico, tem-se de perquirir sobre sua natureza com o auxílio dos conceitos elaborados sobretudo pela ciência econômica, mas também pela sociologia e pela história social. O exame da realidade socioeconômica sob o prisma da essência dos fatos, não apenas de sua aparência, busca na materialidade do fenômeno monetário o suporte teórico para o encaminhamento da análise jurídica desse mesmo fenômeno e seus correlatos, tanto sob o enfoque positivista (dogmático) quanto sob o interativo, ou seja, enquanto relação entre o mundo jurídico positivo e a globalidade social por meio da interpretação ou aplicação das normas. A partir desse quadro analítico, procura o presente trabalho apresentar, primeiramente, um panorama do sistema monetário, situando o problema da moeda no contexto econômico e jurídico. Na segunda parte são expostos os fundamentos analíticos da economia em sua forma monetária (análise econômica da moeda). A terceira seção abrange o efetivo funcionamento do sistema monetário, particularmente examinando as funções do dinheiro numa economia monetária. A quarta e última parte apresenta o Sistema de Pagamentos Brasileiro (SPB) em seus moldes institucionais, situando-o no arcabouço do ordenamento jurídico nacional. A partir de seus fundamentos jurídicos, procede-se ao exame das matérias específicas do Direito obrigacional, em particular do pagamento e de suas garantias institucionais. / The legal study of the system of payments under the focus given by law requires prior examination of the economic phenomenon represented by currency as a key element of the obligational relationship given by purchase agreement, as by establishing the price and also as an object of payment. However, previously to the analysis of the payment and its legal instruments, i.e. the currency (in broad sense) as a legal effect, one should assess his nature with the aid of concepts specially developed by economic science, but also by sociology and social history. The examination of the socio-economic reality lit by the essence of the facts, not just by their appearance, search through the materiality of monetary phenomenon for the theoretical support for legally dealing with such a phenomenon and the correlated ones, both under the positivist approach (dogmatic) as under the interactive one, that is, as a relationship between the effective legal world and the social universe as a result of the interpretation or application of law. From this analytical framework, the ongoing writing seeks firstly to show a panorama of the monetary system by focusing the currency problem in the economic and legal context. The second part deals with the analytical foundations of the economy in its monetary form (economic analysis of currency). The third section covers the effective functioning of the monetary system, particularly by assessing the functions of money in the context of a monetary economy. The fourth and last part deals with the Brazilian Payment System (SPB) in its institutional patterns, by placing it in the framework of the national legal system. From their legal grounds, one assesses the specific matters concerning the Law of obligations, in particular the payment and its institutional collaterals.

O estudo jurídico do sistema de pagamentos sob o enfoque do direito obrigacional requer exame prévio do fenômeno socioeconômico representado pela moeda, enquanto elemento fundamental da relação obrigacional de compra e venda, determinante do preço e objeto do pagamento. Antes, porém, da análise do pagamento e de seus instrumentos jurídicos, ou seja, da moeda (em sentido largo) como efeito jurídico, tem-se de perquirir sobre sua natureza com o auxílio dos conceitos elaborados sobretudo pela ciência econômica, mas também pela sociologia e pela história social. O exame da realidade socioeconômica sob o prisma da essência dos fatos, não apenas de sua aparência, busca na materialidade do fenômeno monetário o suporte teórico para o encaminhamento da análise jurídica desse mesmo fenômeno e seus correlatos, tanto sob o enfoque positivista (dogmático) quanto sob o interativo, ou seja, enquanto relação entre o mundo jurídico positivo e a globalidade social por meio da interpretação ou aplicação das normas. A partir desse quadro analítico, procura o presente trabalho apresentar, primeiramente, um panorama do sistema monetário, situando o problema da moeda no contexto econômico e jurídico. Na segunda parte são expostos os fundamentos analíticos da economia em sua forma monetária (análise econômica da moeda). A terceira seção abrange o efetivo funcionamento do sistema monetário, particularmente examinando as funções do dinheiro numa economia monetária. A quarta e última parte apresenta o Sistema de Pagamentos Brasileiro (SPB) em seus moldes institucionais, situando-o no arcabouço do ordenamento jurídico nacional. A partir de seus fundamentos jurídicos, procede-se ao exame das matérias específicas do Direito obrigacional, em particular do pagamento e de suas garantias institucionais. / The legal study of the system of payments under the focus given by law requires prior examination of the economic phenomenon represented by currency as a key element of the obligational relationship given by purchase agreement, as by establishing the price and also as an object of payment. However, previously to the analysis of the payment and its legal instruments, i.e. the currency (in broad sense) as a legal effect, one should assess his nature with the aid of concepts specially developed by economic science, but also by sociology and social history. The examination of the socio-economic reality lit by the essence of the facts, not just by their appearance, search through the materiality of monetary phenomenon for the theoretical support for legally dealing with such a phenomenon and the correlated ones, both under the positivist approach (dogmatic) as under the interactive one, that is, as a relationship between the effective legal world and the social universe as a result of the interpretation or application of law. From this analytical framework, the ongoing writing seeks firstly to show a panorama of the monetary system by focusing the currency problem in the economic and legal context. The second part deals with the analytical foundations of the economy in its monetary form (economic analysis of currency). The third section covers the effective functioning of the monetary system, particularly by assessing the functions of money in the context of a monetary economy. The fourth and last part deals with the Brazilian Payment System (SPB) in its institutional patterns, by placing it in the framework of the national legal system. From their legal grounds, one assesses the specific matters concerning the Law of obligations, in particular the payment and its institutional collaterals.