A presente dissertação estuda empiricamente a relação entre a inflação e a distribuição de renda, utilizando dados de diversos países. A literatura empírica - baseada principalmente nos trabalhos de Deininger e Squire (1996) e Romer e Romer (1998) - tem se concentrado no estudo dos efeitos que a inflação pode ter sobre a desigualdade, e obteve diferentes conclusões sobre os mecanismos e resultados dessa influência. No entanto, alguns trabalhos teóricos recentes argumentam que há causalidade reversa nessa relação, com a desigualdade causando mudanças na inflação. Dessa forma, nossas contribuições serão: (i) tentaremos isolar os impactos da inflação sobre a distribuição de renda, usando como variáveis de controle: ciclos de crescimento, desenvolvimento econômico, questões regionais e instituições; (ii) procuraremos analisar a causalidade desta relação, utilizando como instrumento da inflação o aumento da quase-moeda. Nossos resultados indicam que há uma forte correlação entre inflação e desigualdade de renda. Porém, essa correlação não é robusta ao controle por variáveis omitidas e problemas de endogeneidade. / This dissertation estimates the relationship between inflation and income distribution, using cross-country data. The empirical literature based mainly on Deininger and Squire (1996) and Romer and Romer (1998) has focused on the impact of inflation on inequality, with mixed results. Nonetheless, recent theoretical work has suggested that causality may actually run in the opposite direction. Our contribution is twofold: (i) we try to estimate more precisely the effect of inflation on inequality by controlling for variables such as growth cycles, economic development, regional effects and institutions; (ii) we address the issue of reverse causality by using the growth rate of quasi-money as an instrument for the inflation rate. Our results indicate that there is a strong positive correlation between inflation and income inequality. Nevertheless, this correlation is not robust to controlling for omitted factors and endogeneity problems.

Apesar de utilizar amplamente a hipótese de expectativas racionais com informação completa nos modelos macroeconômicos modernos, a literatura sempre enfatizou que os agentes econômicos tipicamente encontram fricções e limitações ao adquirir e processar informação. Os modelos de rigidez de informação surgem como uma alternativa atraente por sua capacidade de explicar atributos dos dados de expectativas, em especial a existência de divergência entre as previsões individuais dos agentes. Nesse trabalho, usamos dados brasileiros de expectativas de inflação, tanto para profissionais de mercado quanto para consumidores, de forma a testar as predições de duas classes de modelos de rigidez informacional: (i) sticky information e (ii) imperfect information. Na primeira categoria, os agentes se atualizam infrequentemente, mas obtêm informação perfeita quando se atualizam; na segunda, os agentes se atualizam continuamente, mas observam apenas um sinal ruidoso sobre o verdadeiro estado das variáveis econômicas. É possível distinguir entre essas duas classes de modelos porque ambas fazem predições conflitantes em termos das respostas dos momentos condicionais das expectativas, isto é, após um choque econômico fundamental. Por isso, uma parte essencial do trabalho consiste na identificação e estimação de choques estruturais. Ao realizar tais experimentos, não encontramos evidências que deem suporte a rigidez de informação, ao menos da forma colocada por esses modelos. Também não encontramos evidências a favor de um modelo no qual os agentes têm informação completa, mas diferentes funções perda em relação a erros de previsão. De forma surpreendente, os mesmos resultados são encontrados para profissionais de mercado e consumidores. No entanto, destacamos as limitações das medidas de expectativa usadas para estes últimos. / Despite assuming full-information rational expectations, part of macroeconomic literature has emphasized that agents typically face frictions and constraints in acquiring and forming expectations. Informational rigidities models stand for an appealing alternative, since they are capable of explaining key features of survey expectations data such as disagreement in forecasts between agents. In this work, we use inflation expectations data for professional forecasters and consumers in order to test the predictions of two classes of informational rigidities models: (i) sticky information and (ii) imperfect information. In the first type of model, agents can update their information sets only infrequently, but when doing so they acquire full information; in the second type, agents can update continuously, but only observe a noisy signal about the state of economic variables. One can distinguish between these two classes because they yield conflicting predictions about the conditional responses of forecast moments to fundamental economic shocks. Therefore, an important part of this work deals with identification and estimation of structural shocks. In performing the tests, we are not able to find evidences that support informational rigidities, at least not in the setting suggested by these models. Likewise, we cannot find support to a model in which agents have full-information, but heterogeneous loss functions about forecast errors. Surprisingly, we find the same results for professional forecasters and consumers. It is worth noting, however, that the consumer expectations measures used have several shortfalls.

In the first chapter, I examine an incomplete markets economy in a politico-economic general equilibrium setting in which the median voter chooses the inflation rate. I use an environment where individuals face an uninsurable idiosyncratic labor productivity shock, and money is the only asset. Being an effective tax on savings, inflation acts as a redistribution mechanism transferring resources from the rich to the poor. I show that the median voter chooses a positive inflation rate as the politico-economic equilibrium outcome. In the second chapter, I analyze how forming a monetary union affects consumption and earnings inequalities through monetary policy changes implied by adopting a common currency. I use a two country open-economy, overlapping-generations model with heterogenous individuals to investigate these effects. In the model, inflation tax is the only redistributive tool and consumption and earnings inequalities are decreasing functions of inflation. When forming a monetary union, countries face a trade-off between the undesirable distributional effects of losing their monetary autonomy and benefits from the elimination of trade frictions. Findings suggest that when countries choose to do so, the country with higher initial inflation will definitely experience a fall in its inflation, hence an increase in its inequalities. In the country with lower initial inflation, however, inflation and inequalities might go in either direction depending on the degree of heterogeneity and the trade dependency between the countries. As the inflationary effect of uniting its monetary policy with a high inflation country can dominate the reducing effect of vanished trade frictions on inflation, this country might have an increase in its inflation, and a decrease in its inequalities. Finally, in the third chapter, I compare the indirect measure of inflation expectations derived by Ireland (1996b) to the direct measures obtained from expectations surveys in two case studies: the US and Turkey. Our results show that the inflation bounds calculated for US data are more volatile than survey results, and are too narrow to contain them due to low standard errors in consumption growth series stemming from high persistence. For the Turkish case, on the other hand, out of three different surveys on inflation expectations in Turkey compared with the bounds computed using Turkish data, expectations obtained by the Consumer Tendency Survey fall within these bounds throughout the whole sample period. Moreover we show that, as Fisher's theory suggests, real interest rates are extremely volatile in Turkey and movements in nominal interest rates cannot be directly used as an indicator of changes in inflation expectations. / text

Este trabalho procura avaliar a importância de fricções financeiras para a economia brasileira através da estimação de um modelo Dinâmico e Estocástico de Equilíbrio Geral que incorpora um setor bancário e de crédito para a economia brasileira. São feitas análises dos choques estruturais introduzidos no modelo especificado, permitindo saber a influência de cada variável nas flutuações do produto da economia brasileira, bem como o papel desempenhado pelo setor bancário nos ciclos. Desse modo conseguimos concluir que a redução das fricções a empréstimos para empreendedores teria um impacto positivo no aumento do investimento, consumo e produto. E que as fricções financeiras por um lado permitem a manutenção de spreads bancários elevados, impactando positivamente nos lucros dos bancos, mas por outro ajudam a conter os níveis de preços face a choques na economia brasileira. / This study tries to evaluates the importance of financial frictions for the Brazilian economy through the estimation of a Dynamic and Stochastic General Equilibrium model which incorporates a banking and credit sectors. We study the influence of different structural shocks on several variables of the Brazilian economy, as well as the role of the banking sector in the business cycles. In this regard, we conclude that the reduction of financial frictions for loans to the entrepreneurs would have a positive impact on investment, consumption and output of the Brazilian economy. And if, in one hand, financial frictions allow the maintenance of higher banking spreads, increasing banks\' profits, on the other hand, it helps in the contention of inflation when the Brazilian economy respond to different shocks.

Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi / My dissertation develops a set of tools for introducing heterogeneity into economic models in an analytically tractable way. Many models use the representative agent framework, which greatly simplifies macroeconomic aggregation but abstracts from the heterogeneity we see in the real world. In my research, I move away from the representative agent framework in two key ways. First, my work in international macroeconomics incorporates heterogeneity via idiosyncratic shocks across countries. Second, my work on financial frictions employs asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers. In both of these areas, my goal is to examine the implications of heterogeneity in the most tractable way possible. Crucially, these insights can be incorporated into the models currently used by academics and central banks for policy analysis. The first chapter of my dissertation, "Price Stability in Small Open Economies," joint work with Mikhail Dmitriev, studies the conduct of optimal monetary policy in a continuum of small open economies. We obtain a novel closed-form solution that does not restrict the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods to one. Using this global closed-form solution, we give an exact characterization of optimal monetary policy and welfare with and without international policy cooperation. We consider the cases of internationally complete asset markets and financial autarky, producer currency pricing and local currency pricing. Under producer currency pricing, it is always optimal to mimic the flexible-price equilibrium through a policy of price stability. Under local currency pricing, policy should fix the exchange rate. Even though countries have monopoly power, the continuum of small open economies implies that policymakers cannot affect world income. This inability to influence world income removes the incentive to deviate from price stability under producer currency pricing or a fixed exchange rate under local currency pricing, and prevents gains from international monetary cooperation in all cases examined. Our results contrast with those for large open economies, where interactions between home policy and world income drive optimal policy away from price stability or fixed exchange rates, and gains from cooperation are present. The second chapter of my dissertation, "The Optimal Design of a Fiscal Union'', joint work with Mikhail Dmitriev, examines the role of fiscal policy cooperation and financial market integration in an open economy setting, motivated by the recent crisis in the euro area. I show that the optimal design of a fiscal union is governed by the degree of substitutability between the export goods of different countries. When countries produce goods that are imperfect substitutes they should harmonize their income taxes to prevent large terms of trade externalities. On the other hand, when countries produce goods that are close substitutes, they should organize a contingent fiscal transfer scheme to insure against idiosyncratic shocks. The welfare gains from the optimal fiscal union are as high as 5\% of permanent consumption when countries are able to trade safe government bonds, and approach 20\% of permanent consumption when countries lose access to international financial markets. These gains are especially large for countries like Greece that produce highly substitutable export goods and who cannot raise funds on international financial markets to insure against downside risk. The results illustrate why federal currency unions such as the U.S., Canada and Australia, with income tax harmonization and built-in fiscal transfer arrangements, withstand asymmetric shocks across regions much better than the euro area, which lacks these ingredients at the moment. The third chapter of my dissertation, joint work with Mikhail Dmitriev, studies macro-financial linkages and the impact of financial frictions on real economic activity in some of my other work. Beginning with the Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist (1999) financial accelerator model, a large literature has shown that financial frictions amplify business cycles. Using this framework, Christiano, Motto and Rostagno (AER, 2013) show that shocks to financial frictions can explain business cycle fluctuations quite well. However, this literature relies on two ad hoc assumptions. When these assumptions are relaxed and agents have access to a broader set of lending contracts, the financial accelerator disappears, and shocks to financial frictions have little to no impact on the economy. In addition, under the ad hoc lending contract inflation targeting eliminates the financial accelerator. These results provide guidance for monetary policymakers and present a puzzle for macroeconomic theory. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2014. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

A influência da percepção de risco sobre as decisões de demanda por moeda é o tema central que este trabalho busca explorar. Para isso, um modelo de demanda por moeda a ser testado empiricamente foi proposto, com a inclusão de variáveis de volatilidade do mercado de ações, das taxas de juros e do produto interno bruto, além do spread sobre a taxa de juros de política monetária, ao modelo padrão na literatura, com produto e taxa de juros como variáveis independentes. Em seguida, o modelo foi estimado para a economia dos Estados Unidos no período entre 1959 e 2013, utilizando sete diferentes agregados monetários como variável dependente. Para que fosse corretamente considerada a cointegração entre as variáveis envolvidas, foi utilizada a técnica de estimação por modelos ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lags), cuja aplicação na literatura durante a última década em modelos com variáveis de distintas ordens de integração é crescente. Os resultados obtidos são animadores no sentido de sugerir a existência desta relação entre risco e demanda por moeda, particularmente para o período de maior inovação financeira recente, porém dão margem a novas pesquisas que possam aperfeiçoar a metodologia teórica e econométrica a fim de melhor estimar a dimensão e o mecanismo desta relação. / The influence of perceived risk on the decisions of the demand for money is the central theme that this paper seeks to explore. With this goal, we propose a model of demand for money to be tested empirically, with the inclusion of volatilities of the stock market, interest rates and gross domestic product, in addition to the spread on the monetary policy interest rate, to the standard model in the literature, with product and interest rate as independent variables. This model was then estimated for the United States economy in the period between 1959 and 2013, using seven different monetary aggregates as the dependent variable. In order to properly consider the cointegration between the variables involved, we made use of ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lags) modeling technique, whose application in the literature over the last decade, in models with variables of different orders of integration, is increasing. The results are encouraging in the sense of suggesting the existence of such relationship between risk and demand for money, particularly for the most recent period of financial innovation, but leaves room to new research that could improve the theoretical and econometric methodology in order to better estimate the dimension and the mechanism of this relationship.

A influência da percepção de risco sobre as decisões de demanda por moeda é o tema central que este trabalho busca explorar. Para isso, um modelo de demanda por moeda a ser testado empiricamente foi proposto, com a inclusão de variáveis de volatilidade do mercado de ações, das taxas de juros e do produto interno bruto, além do spread sobre a taxa de juros de política monetária, ao modelo padrão na literatura, com produto e taxa de juros como variáveis independentes. Em seguida, o modelo foi estimado para a economia dos Estados Unidos no período entre 1959 e 2013, utilizando sete diferentes agregados monetários como variável dependente. Para que fosse corretamente considerada a cointegração entre as variáveis envolvidas, foi utilizada a técnica de estimação por modelos ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lags), cuja aplicação na literatura durante a última década em modelos com variáveis de distintas ordens de integração é crescente. Os resultados obtidos são animadores no sentido de sugerir a existência desta relação entre risco e demanda por moeda, particularmente para o período de maior inovação financeira recente, porém dão margem a novas pesquisas que possam aperfeiçoar a metodologia teórica e econométrica a fim de melhor estimar a dimensão e o mecanismo desta relação. / The influence of perceived risk on the decisions of the demand for money is the central theme that this paper seeks to explore. With this goal, we propose a model of demand for money to be tested empirically, with the inclusion of volatilities of the stock market, interest rates and gross domestic product, in addition to the spread on the monetary policy interest rate, to the standard model in the literature, with product and interest rate as independent variables. This model was then estimated for the United States economy in the period between 1959 and 2013, using seven different monetary aggregates as the dependent variable. In order to properly consider the cointegration between the variables involved, we made use of ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lags) modeling technique, whose application in the literature over the last decade, in models with variables of different orders of integration, is increasing. The results are encouraging in the sense of suggesting the existence of such relationship between risk and demand for money, particularly for the most recent period of financial innovation, but leaves room to new research that could improve the theoretical and econometric methodology in order to better estimate the dimension and the mechanism of this relationship.

Submitted by Daniella Santos (daniella.santos@ufma.br) on 2017-12-05T15:04:08Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ErivamPintoJunior.pdf: 1116751 bytes, checksum: 2155e1eb5a800f430e8378c159cc5e29 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-12-05T15:04:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ErivamPintoJunior.pdf: 1116751 bytes, checksum: 2155e1eb5a800f430e8378c159cc5e29 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-06-22 / CAPES / The cause and effect relationships between the variations in aggregate demand and inflation are distinct and depend on the theoretical approach adopted for the examination of the inflationary process. Excess demand is not always the prime source of inflation. In some cases, the inflation dynamics can be analyzed from some variables that, when generating cost increases, cause an increase in the general level of prices. The conventional approach admits that equilibrium in the labor market is essentially automatic and that inflation is always a consequence of excess demand. From this diagnosis, he concludes that the role of the monetary authority is to control the demand to a level that corresponds to the non-accelerating unemployment inflation rate, through the manipulation of the interest rate. For the Post-Keynesian approach, this view can only be constructed from the idea that money is endogenous and not neutral, which allows one to see inflation not as a result of excess demand, but that the growth of the currency may have been growth of economic costs. On the other hand, the Distributive Conflict approach seeks to understand the inflationary process from the social and political environment of an economy, considering what are the actions and reactions of the various groups that comprise it and the way in which each group takes initiative in the intention to defend income. The formation of the general level of prices occurs in a different way from those that reflect the scarcity of factors of production and from this analysis, the orthodox elements that associate the inflationary process with anenvironment of excess demand is not present. This research presents a theoretical narrative of how the orthodox approach considers that excess or acceleration of demand is capable of causing inflation and, in the face of such a diagnosis, how it should be combated, followed by interventionist discussion, which adds the endogeneity of money in the analysis of the inflationary process and which considers that inflation can occur even before demand reaches the level of full employment. Subsequently, it seeks to delineate the emergence of Structuralist thought, which opposed dominant theories and sought to understand the inflationary dynamics in Latin American countries from their specificities. Such theorists have provided the basis for the approach that is subsequently analyzed, that of Distributive Conflict. For this, the research tries to expose the real cost variables that are used to analyze the inflationary dynamics of an economy in a given time period, then a comparison of how the approaches exposed diverge and converge in relation to the analysis of inflationary dynamics and the mechanisms which must be adopted in pursuit of the equilibrium of the general level of prices. / As relações de causa e efeito entre as variações da demanda agregada e da inflação são distintas e dependem da abordagem teórica adotada para o exame do processo inflacionário. Nem sempre o excesso de demanda é a fonte primeira de inflação. Em determinados casos, a dinâmica inflacionária pode ser analisada a partir de algumas variáveis que, ao gerar aumentos de custos, causam aumento do nível geral de preços. A abordagem convencional admite que o equilíbrio no mercado de trabalho é essencialmente automático e que a inflação é sempre consequência do excesso de demanda. A partir desse diagnóstico, conclui que o papel da autoridade monetária é controlar a demanda para um nível que corresponda à taxa de desemprego não aceleradora da inflação, através da manipulação da taxa de juros. Para a abordagem Pós-Keynesiana, essa visão só pode ser construída a partir da ideia de que a moeda é endógena e não neutra, o que permite enxergar a inflação não como resultante do excesso de demanda, mas que o crescimento da moeda pode ter sido antecedido pelo crescimento dos custos da economia. Por outro lado, a abordagem do Conflito Distributivo busca entender o processo inflacionário a partir do ambiente social e político de uma economia, considerando quais são as ações e reações dos diversos grupos que a compõem e a maneira como cada grupo toma iniciativa na intenção de defender sua participação na renda. A formação do nível geral de preços ocorre de forma distinta daqueles que refletem a escassez de fatores de produção e a partir dessa análise, os elementos ortodoxos que associam o processo inflacionário a um ambiente de excesso de demanda não se faz presente. Esta pesquisa apresenta uma narrativa teórica de como a abordagem ortodoxa considera que o excesso ou a aceleração da demanda é capaz de causar inflação e, diante de tal diagnostico, como ela deve ser combatida, seguida da discussão intervencionista, que adiciona a endogeneidade da moeda na análise do processo inflacionário e que considera que a inflação pode ocorrer mesmo antes da demanda alcançar o nível de pleno emprego. Posteriormente, procura delinear o surgimento do pensamento Estruturalista, que se opôs às teorias dominantes e que buscou entender a dinâmica inflacionária nos países LatinoAmericanos a partir de suas especificidades. Tais teóricos ofereceram as bases para a abordagem que é analisada subsequentemente, a do Conflito Distributivo. Para isso, a pesquisa trata de expor as variáveis reais de custo que são utilizadas para analisar a dinâmica inflacionária de uma economia em determinado período temporal, depois uma comparação de como as abordagens expostas divergem e convergem em relação à análise da dinâmica inflacionária e os mecanismos que devem ser adotados em busca do equilíbrio do nível geral de preços.

Este trabalho procura avaliar a importância de fricções financeiras para a economia brasileira através da estimação de um modelo Dinâmico e Estocástico de Equilíbrio Geral que incorpora um setor bancário e de crédito para a economia brasileira. São feitas análises dos choques estruturais introduzidos no modelo especificado, permitindo saber a influência de cada variável nas flutuações do produto da economia brasileira, bem como o papel desempenhado pelo setor bancário nos ciclos. Desse modo conseguimos concluir que a redução das fricções a empréstimos para empreendedores teria um impacto positivo no aumento do investimento, consumo e produto. E que as fricções financeiras por um lado permitem a manutenção de spreads bancários elevados, impactando positivamente nos lucros dos bancos, mas por outro ajudam a conter os níveis de preços face a choques na economia brasileira. / This study tries to evaluates the importance of financial frictions for the Brazilian economy through the estimation of a Dynamic and Stochastic General Equilibrium model which incorporates a banking and credit sectors. We study the influence of different structural shocks on several variables of the Brazilian economy, as well as the role of the banking sector in the business cycles. In this regard, we conclude that the reduction of financial frictions for loans to the entrepreneurs would have a positive impact on investment, consumption and output of the Brazilian economy. And if, in one hand, financial frictions allow the maintenance of higher banking spreads, increasing banks\' profits, on the other hand, it helps in the contention of inflation when the Brazilian economy respond to different shocks.

The first two chapters are dedicated to the modeling and implementation of a stock-flow consistent framework that incorporates real estate as an asset in the portfolio of the household. The third chapter investigates the main determinants of mortgage repayment of Canadian households. This first chapter presents a five-sector stock-flow consistency growth model where the portfolio decision of the households includes their choice of how much real estate they are interested in holding. The primary aim of the chapter is to model the housing market using the stock-flow consistent approach to explain the current global financial problem triggered by the housing market. The model is then simulated to predict the behaviour of various variables and propose appropriate solutions to the financial problem in the hope of returning the economy to a suitable equilibrium. Households' portfolio consists of money deposits, bills, bank equities and real estate. The other sectors that interact with the household sector are the production firms, the banks, the central bank and the government. Aside from the household sector, the banking sector ends up holding some real estate equivalent to the amount of mortgages defaulted by the households. The supply of real estate from the production sector is therefore augmented by the additional ones held by the banks. The second chapter presents the implementation of the stock-flow consistency model of first chapter. The purpose of the chapter is to run a simulation of the model and experiment with shocks to determine the path of the economic variables of the model. Another objective in performing the experiments is to find policies for mitigating the housing crisis. The model is implemented using the Eviews computer modeling software and runs until a stationary steady state is achieved. Various shocks are applied to the baseline stationary state. The results of the monetary policy show that the mortgage rate shock is more effective in influencing the growth rate of the economy as well as controlling the real estate market. Government fiscal policy is also effective in regulating the housing market. A one-period temporary fiscal policy shock is even capable of generating permanent long run growth effects. Household expectations in future housing price increases or future high rates of housing returns have the effect of heating the real estate market without comparable increases in economic growth. Policy makers must keep these expectations in check. The third chapter analyzes the determinants of mortgage repayment options in Canada. With the freedom that comes with being debt-free and owning a home one will assume that households pay off their mortgages as soon as possible. However, there are factors that inhibit households from carrying out these payoffs. The study uses Canadian micro-level data to examine factors that drive households to default, prepay or continue to make regular mortgage payments. The research methodology uses multinomial (polytomous) logistic regression analyzes. The empirical results establish that the traditional mortgage related predictor variables for repayment are statistically significant with the expected signs. The results relating to the provinces are not significantly different from each other. The results did not however provide any significance in relation to mortgage rates and the number of children in the household.