Milton Friedman’s article on the optimum quantity of money has motivated much research since its publication. While most of the research has been on deterministic frameworks, a few models (e.g. Bewley 1983, Taub 1989) have extended the analysis to stochastic environments. The first two essays of the dissertation address the issue in two types of stochastic economies. In both the models, quadratic utility and linear constraints have been used to facilitate the use of Whiteman’s techniques (1985). The third essay introduces capital and derives the optimal rate of monetary policy in the presence of financial intermediaries. In the first essay a pure exchange model in which infinitely lived agents face stochastically varying endowments in each period is considered. In this model individuals can delay payment for purchases into the future with a credit card. It shows that the optimal rate of inflation is the same in a world where individuals are required to pay for their purchases immediately as in a world where they can delay payment with a credit card. Moreover, the optimal inflation rate may be positive or negative depending on the parameters of the model. Therefore, Bewley’s (1983) conjecture that deflation should proceed at a rate greater than the rate of time preference in a world of uncertainty is not generally true. The second essay derives the optimum quantity of money in a stochastic production economy. The optimum quantity of money literature largely ignores the effect of labor supply on money’s optimal rate of return. This paper examines the issue in an economy that is subject to stochastic shocks each period. It shows that incorporating production affects the optimal return on money in important ways. If there are individual specific shocks to preferences, then the optimal policy is highly inflationary. When individual preferences are subject to economy wide shocks, however, it is possible for either inflation or deflation to be optimal. The optimal policy depends on the weight individuals attach to the disutility of work and the weight individuals attach to the utility from holding money. Optimal policy responds positively to increases in the disutility from work and negatively to increases in the weight on consumption in the utility function. The paper therefore shows the sensitivity of the optimal policy on the way labor supply is modeled. Since such considerations do not arise in endowment economies, the optimal policy will generally change as one moves from endowment to production economies. In the third essay the Tobin effect and optimal monetary policy are analyzed when financial intermediaries develop endogenously. Providing a justification for the development of intermediaries similar to those found in the recent financial intermediation literature, we show that financial intermediation significantly affects investment decisions and monetary policy. In particular, the cost to intermediaries of providing substitutes of outside money play a critical role. Whether a decrease in the return on outside money will increase investment or not is found to depend on how the cost of providing alternative means of payment is affected. It is found that at low and moderate rates of inflation the Tobin effect remains valid. At high rates of inflation, however, the Tobin effect gets reversed. Further, since borrowers have private information regarding the outcome of the investment projects financed by the lenders, credit rationing may occur in equilibrium. We also derive the rate of return on money that maximizes social welfare. This optimal rate of return is not only dependent on the cost of the alternative means of payment, it also depends critically on whether credit is rationed in equilibrium or not. Finally, the paper highlights some of the distributional issues raised by a change in the rate of return on money. / Ph. D.

In this study, the possibility that money demand of one country might be affected by macroeconomic activities of other countries is investigated. We use the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) technique, which takes into account all covariances between residuals of country-specific money demand equations. Efficiency of estimates using the SUR technique is enhanced because it uses information contained in the contemporaneous correlation of the error terms. The hypothesis of economic interdependence is tested. A proxy for foreign influence, deviation from interest rate parity (DIRP), is tested for significance in the money demand function.

Deflation, today understood mainly as a decrease in price level, is in the eyes of the mainstream economists the threat and danger of the economic development. This view is based on the experience from the Economic Crisis between 1929 and 1933 and later development in Japan. Therefore, the price stability is nowadays comprehended as a non decline in price index; monetary policy actually states the sustainable increase as a goal. The Austrian School of Economics uses the original definition of the words inflation and deflation and defines them as the increase and decrease of money supply. Modern interpretation of these terms means for them a dangerous misunderstanding whose result is misapprehension of causal connections between individual phenomena. This leads not only to incorrect conclusions but, above all, to disruption of the economic system, price and production structure, and development of economic cycles caused by artificial increase in money supply, which brings profit to certain groups.

Uppsatsens titel: Penningmängd och huspriser - Finns det något samband? Ämne: Företagsekonomi, Kandidatuppsats, 15 hp Inlämningsdatum: 2009 – 05 – 29 Författare: Gunnar Levin, Viktor Sundling Handledare: Sven-Ola Carlsson Nyckelord: Penningmängd, Huspriser, Kointegration, M3, Fastigheter, FASTPI, Kvantitetsteorin Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att genom statistiska tester beskriva sambandet mellan penningmängdens utveckling och småhusfastigheters prisutveckling. Vi vill även försöka förklara ett eventuellt samband med kvantitetsteorin. Tillvägagångssätt: I denna uppsats har vi genom att fastställa ett kointegrationssamband mellan tidsserievariabler kunnat genomföra en regressionsanalys mellan penningmängdsutvecklingen och prisutvecklingen för småhus avsedda för permanent boende. Slutsatser: Vi har funnit ett långsiktigt samband mellan utvecklingen i penningmängden uttryckt som M3 och prisutvecklingen för småhus avsedda för permanent boende. Sambandet mellan M3 och fastighetsprisindex för småhus kan förklaras med kvantitetsteorin. / Thesis title: Money supply and house prices - Is there any connection? Course: Business administration, Bachelor’s Essay, 15 credits Date of handing: 2009 – 05 – 29 Authors: Gunnar Levin, Viktor Sundling Advisor: Sven-Ola Carlsson Keywords: Money supply, House prices, Cointegration, M3, Real estate, FASTPI, Quantity Theory of Money Purpose of study: The purpose of this study is through statistical tests describe the relation between development in money supply and development in owner-occupied one- or two-dwelling buildings. We also want to describe a possible relation between the variables with the quantity theory. Method: In this essay, we have been able to perform a regression analysis between money supply and owner-occupied one- or two-dwelling buildings, by establishing cointegration between time variables. Conclusion: We have discovered a long term relation between the development in money supply defined as M3 and the development in prices for owner-occupied one- or two-dwelling buildings. The relation between M3 and real estate index can be explained with the quantity theory of money.

Submitted by Maria de Lourdes Mariano (lmariano@ufscar.br) on 2017-03-21T18:09:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 KLUTH_Fabian_2016.pdf: 29028293 bytes, checksum: 4c1628e5b0d9da5129a16fe0ade37304 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria de Lourdes Mariano (lmariano@ufscar.br) on 2017-03-21T18:10:02Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 KLUTH_Fabian_2016.pdf: 29028293 bytes, checksum: 4c1628e5b0d9da5129a16fe0ade37304 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria de Lourdes Mariano (lmariano@ufscar.br) on 2017-03-21T18:10:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 KLUTH_Fabian_2016.pdf: 29028293 bytes, checksum: 4c1628e5b0d9da5129a16fe0ade37304 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-21T18:10:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 KLUTH_Fabian_2016.pdf: 29028293 bytes, checksum: 4c1628e5b0d9da5129a16fe0ade37304 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-09-04 / Não recebi financiamento / In considering the evolution of credit and rising inflationary pressure observed in Brazil between 2007 and 2015 this research investigates how the Central Bank of Brazil, given its goal of inflation targeting, acted in providing reserves to support the observed credit growth in recent years. The econometric method used for analysis consisted of applying Granger causality tests using data from the Central Bank of Brazil. We conclude that the amount of money were defined by demand and had no impact on the determination of the nominal product. The central bank, in turn, provided the necessary reserves in accordance to the volume of deposits. Together, these results provide support to the notion of endogenous money supply in the period. / Considerando a evolução do crédito e crescente pressão inflacionária observados no Brasil entre 2007 e 2015 esta pesquisa investiga como o Banco Central do Brasil, dada sua missão de controlar a inflação, atuou na provisão de reservas para suportar o crescimento do crédito observado no período recente. O método econométrico empregado para análise foi composto por aplicação de testes de causalidade de Granger utilizando dados do Banco Central do Brasil. Resulta da pesquisa que a quantidade de moeda foi definida pelas necessidades da demanda e não teve implicações na determinação do produto nominal. O banco central, por sua vez, forneceu as reservas necessárias conforme o volume de depósitos. Em conjunto, estes resultados corroboram a noção de oferta monetária endógena no período.

This study investigates the contribution of bank credit extension to the private sector to inflation in South Africa, covering the period 1970:1-2006:4. The long-run impact of bank credit on inflation is investigated by means of the Johansen co integration model. The short-run ynamics of the inflation is subsequently modelled by means of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Using the Johansen methodology, the study identifies two co integrating equations linking inflation and its eterminants. The results suggest that the long-run relationship between inflation and bank credit to the private sector is negative and statistically significant at 10% level. The determinants that are significant at 5% level are: money supply, real gross domestic product, the money market rate, rand/dollar exchange rate and imports. The results are consistent with previous findings. The speed of adjustment in response to deviation from the equilibrium path was found to be negative at 10.56% per quarter, which is consistent with findings by Ohnsorge and Oomes (2003) for Russia. Both the signs and the magnitude of the coefficients suggest that the co integrating vector describes a long-run inflation equation. The impulse response functions confirm the theoretical expectations except for the import prices. The most persistent and significant shocks observed are on impulse response functions of money supply and bank credit to the private sector. The variance decomposition results also suggest that inflation responds quicker to innovations from money supply and the money market rate. The overall results provide evidence that the surge in inflation is associated with an increase in money supply as well as the instability in exchange rate. The effects of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation are reflected through changes in import prices. Based on the results we conclude that an increase in bank credit during the period 1970:1-2006:4 had a negative mpact on inflation in South Africa.

This study is about whether the money supply in South Africa under a monetary policy regime of inflation‐targeting is exogenously or endogenously determined. The proposition of an exogenous money supply has been offered by monetarists, where the Central Bank determines the quantity of money supplied to the economy and this has a causal influence on income and credit extension. The endogenous money theory is a post‐Keynesian proposition whereby the money creation is determined by banks adjusting their responses to demands for credit‐money from economic agents. The data analysis is from 2000Q1 to 2010Q4 and entails the use of the variables monetary base (MB), domestic credit extension (DCE), M3, and gross national product (GDP). All variables are logged. The empirical tests conducted start with the Augmented Dickey‐Fuller unit root test to determine the variables order of integration. Johansen cointegration tests are done followed by Vector Error‐Correction Models (VECMs) and Granger causality tests to determine whether there is unidirectional or bidirectional causality between variables over the long and short‐run. Based on the results of the testing it was discovered that over the inflation‐targeting regime money supply in South Africa was endogenously determined. Furthermore, the data best supports the Accommodationist analysis of endogenous money as opposed to that of Structuralism and Liquidity Preference / Adobe Acrobat 9.53 Paper Capture Plug-in

Thesis (M.A. Commerce (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2019 / South Africa had targeted the oil and gas sector for investment through the industrial action plan as a special economic zone. However, certain economic fundamentals might negate the anticipated sector financial development. This study investigate how economic risk exposure influence oil & gas sector stock market returns from 2007 to 2015 on a monthly basis. The four macroeconomic variables used to measure economic risk exposure are Brent crude oil prices, the USD/ZAR exchange rate, broad money supply and gold prices. The adopted techniques include the GARCH model to incorporate volatility, the Johansen cointegration and Granger causality techniques. The results of the study found that change in Brent crude oil prices and broad money supply had a positive and significant impact on changes in oil & gas sector stock returns. Changes in exchange rate and gold prices had a negative and significant impact on the sector returns. The long-run relationship established one cointegrating equation in the series. Only Brent crude oil prices indicated a bi-directional Granger causality on the sector returns. Based on the findings, it is recommended that government may use exchange rate as a policy tool to attract interest in the sector. Regarding money supply, the reserve bank should further preserve its effective regulatory infrastructure including the laws, regulations and standards towards the achievement and maintenance of a stable financial system. Portfolio managers, risk managers and investors should monitor the gold price to mitigate losses due to its strength as a safe haven asset.

Понимание влияния макроэкономических показателей на экономику государства актуально для институтов власти, таких как центральный банк. Целью данной диссертационной работы является разработка методики динамического моделирования для исследования взаимодействий макроэкономических показателей, а также для создания инструментов для осуществления монетарной политики. Объект данного исследования выступают макроэкономические процессы. Предметом исследования является макроэкономическая модель Российской федерации и ее основные регуляторы. В результате магистерского исследования решены ряд задач: изучена теории мировой экономики, а также проведен анализ макроэкономических показателей, разработанная и произведена программная реализована методики динамических моделей: проведено тестирование программного продукта, и построение сетевых моделей. / Understanding the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the state’s economy is relevant to government institutions, such as the central bank. The purpose of this dissertation is to develop a dynamic modeling methodology for studying the interactions of macroeconomic indicators, as well as for creating tools for implementing monetary policy. The object of this study are macroeconomic processes. The subject of the research is the macroeconomic model of the Russian Federation and its main regulators. As a result of the master's research, a number of problems were solved: the theory of the world economy was studied, and macroeconomic indicators were analyzed, a dynamic model methodology was developed and software implemented: a software product was tested, and network models were built.

Macroeconomic indicators are amongst the most important and used tools for investors as they provide an outlook for the economy and thus improve the assessment of investments e.g. for asset allocation. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the short- and long-run relationship between the US stock market index S&P500 and six selected macroeconomic indicators during different time regimes during 2000-2016. The chosen indicators are Personal spending, Initial jobless claims, M1 Money supply, Building permits, Michigan Consumers Sentiment index and the ISM Manufacturing index as they measure different parts of the economy and are commonly used by investors. We achieve the purpose by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lags model (ARDL) as it has several advantages in relation to comparable time series models. The results show that all indicators except Personal spending are significant in the long-run on the 1-percent level, in at least one time-regime. All indicators have significant results also in the short-run except the Money Supply (M1), depending on which time period that is under investigation. Our conclusion is that our chosen indicators have different characteristics depending on the current dynamics of the stock market, economic state and other related markets. The practical implication for investors is that different indicators are of limited use depending on the current market dynamics and investors must evaluate the underlying premises of the development of the indicator rather than interpreting a specific datapoint. / Makroekonomiska indikatorer är bland de mest viktiga och använda verktygen av investerare eftersom man kan få en överblick av den ekonomiska utvecklingen och således förbättra beslutsunderlaget vid till exempel tillgångsallokering. Syftet med denna avhandling är att undersöka de kort- och långsiktiga förhållandena mellan det amerikanska aktiemarknadsindexet S&P500 och sex utvalda makroekonomiska indikatorer under olika tidsperioder mellan 2000-2016. De valda indikatorerna är Personal spending, Initial jobless claims, M1 Money supply, Building permits, Michigan Consumers Sentiment index och ISM Manufacturing index eftersom de mäter olika delar av ekonomin och används kontinuerligt av investerare. Vi uppnår syftet genom att använda en Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) modell då den har flertalet fördelar i förhållande till jämförbara tidsseriemodeller. Resultaten visar att alla indikatorer utom Personal spending är signifikant på lång sikt på enprocentsnivån, över olika tidsperioder. Alla indikatorer har även signifikanta resultat på kort sikt förutom M1 Money supply, beroende på vilken tidsperiod som studeras. Vår slutsats är att dem valda indikatorerna har olika egenskaper beroende på den aktuella dynamiken i aktiemarknaden, ekonomin eller andra relaterade marknader. Den praktiska konsekvensen för investerare är att eftersom olika indikatorer är av begränsad användning beroende på den rådande marknadsdynamiken, måste investeraren noggrant utvärdera de underliggande villkoren för utvecklingen av en unik indikator snarare än att endast tolka en unik datapunkt.