The mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus ponderosae), a tree-killing bark beetle, has historically been part of the normal disturbance regime in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) forests. In recent years, warm winters and summers have allowed MPB populations to achieve synchronous emergence and successful attacks, resulting in widespread population outbreaks and resultant tree mortality across western North America. We develop an age-structured forest demographic model that incorporates temperature-dependent MPB infestations: the Susceptible-Infested-Juvenile (SIJ) model. Stability of fixed points is analyzed as a function of population growth rates, and indicates the existence of periodic outbreaks that intensify as growth rates increase. We devise analytical methods to predict outbreak severity and duration as well as outbreak return time. To assess the vulnerability of natural resources to climate change, we develop a thermally-driven mechanistic model to predict MPB population growth rates using a distributional model of beetle phenology in conjunction with criteria for successful tree colonization. The model uses projected daily minimum and maximum temperatures for the years 2025 to 2085 generated by three separate global climate models. Growth rates are calculated each year for an area defined by latitude range 42° N to 49° N and longitude range 108° W to 117° W on a Cartesian grid of approximately 4km resolution. Using these growth rates, we analyze how the optimal thermal window for beetle development is changing with respect to elevation as a result of climate change induced warming. We also use our combined model to evaluate if thermal regimes exist that would promote life cycle bivoltinism and discuss how yearly growth rates would change as a result. Outbreaks of MPB are largely driven by host tree stand demographics and spatial effects of beetle dispersal. We augment the SIJ model to account for the spatial effects of MPB dispersal throughout a forest landscape by coupling it with a Gaussian redistribution kernel. The new model generates a train of sustained solitary waves of infestation that move through a forest with constant speed. We convert the resulting integrodifference equation into a partial differential equation and search for travelling wave solutions. The resulting differential equation provides predictions of the shape of an outbreak wave profile and of peak infestation as functions of wave speed, which can be calculated analytically. These results culminate in the derivation of an explicit formula for predicting the severity of an outbreak based on the net reproductive rate of MPB and host searching efficiency.

This dissertation describes the development of CAMBIUM, an agent-based forest sector model for large-scale strategic analysis. This model is designed as a decision support tool for assessing the effect that changes in forest product demand and resource inventories can have on the structure and economic viability of the forest sector. CAMBIUM complements existing forest sector models by modeling aggregate product supply as an emergent property of individual companies’ production decisions and stand-level ecological processes. Modeling the forest products sector as a group of interacting autonomous agents makes it possible to introduce production capacity dynamics and the potential for mill insolvencies as factors in modeling the effects of market and forest inventory based disturbances. This thesis contains four main manuscripts. In the first manuscript I develop and test a dispersal algorithm that projects aggregated forest inventory information onto a lattice grid. This method can be used to generate ecologically and statistically consistent datasets where high-quality spatial inventory data is otherwise unavailable. The second manuscript utilizes this dataset in developing a provincial-level resource dynamics model for assessing the timber supply effects of introducing weevil-resistant spruce. This model employs a stand-level approach to simulating weevil infestation and associated merchantable volume losses. Provincial-level impacts are determined by simulating harvest activities over a 350 year time horizon. In the third manuscript I shift the focus to interactions between forest companies. I analyze the effects of strategic decisions on sector structure by developing CAMBIUM as an agent-based model of competition and industry structure evolution. The forest sector is modeled as a group of autonomous, interacting agents that evolve and compete within the limitations posed by resource inventories and product demand. In the final manuscript I calibrate CAMBIUM to current conditions in the British Columbia forest sector. Industry agents compete for roundwood inputs, as well as for profits in finished product markets for pulp, panel products, and lumber. To test the relevance and utility of this model, CAMBIUM is used to quantify the cumulative impacts of a market downturn for forest products and mountain pine beetle induced timber supply fluctuations on the structure of the forest sector.

This dissertation describes the development of CAMBIUM, an agent-based forest sector model for large-scale strategic analysis. This model is designed as a decision support tool for assessing the effect that changes in forest product demand and resource inventories can have on the structure and economic viability of the forest sector. CAMBIUM complements existing forest sector models by modeling aggregate product supply as an emergent property of individual companies’ production decisions and stand-level ecological processes. Modeling the forest products sector as a group of interacting autonomous agents makes it possible to introduce production capacity dynamics and the potential for mill insolvencies as factors in modeling the effects of market and forest inventory based disturbances. This thesis contains four main manuscripts. In the first manuscript I develop and test a dispersal algorithm that projects aggregated forest inventory information onto a lattice grid. This method can be used to generate ecologically and statistically consistent datasets where high-quality spatial inventory data is otherwise unavailable. The second manuscript utilizes this dataset in developing a provincial-level resource dynamics model for assessing the timber supply effects of introducing weevil-resistant spruce. This model employs a stand-level approach to simulating weevil infestation and associated merchantable volume losses. Provincial-level impacts are determined by simulating harvest activities over a 350 year time horizon. In the third manuscript I shift the focus to interactions between forest companies. I analyze the effects of strategic decisions on sector structure by developing CAMBIUM as an agent-based model of competition and industry structure evolution. The forest sector is modeled as a group of autonomous, interacting agents that evolve and compete within the limitations posed by resource inventories and product demand. In the final manuscript I calibrate CAMBIUM to current conditions in the British Columbia forest sector. Industry agents compete for roundwood inputs, as well as for profits in finished product markets for pulp, panel products, and lumber. To test the relevance and utility of this model, CAMBIUM is used to quantify the cumulative impacts of a market downturn for forest products and mountain pine beetle induced timber supply fluctuations on the structure of the forest sector.

No description available.

British Columbia’s current mountain pine beetle epidemic has led to salvage and mitigation harvesting strategies intended to slow the dispersal of beetles, and recover economic value from infested timber stands. These resulting harvesting strategies will alter the spatial pattern of forest landscapes in impacted regions, often resulting in forest fragmentation. As a result, wildlife habitat, hydrologic regimes, local carbon budgets, and soil dynamics, amoung other ecological properties, are expected to be negatively impacted. Monitoring of forest fragmentation in Canada is now required for the Montreal Process, an international forest monitoring policy. Effective methods that quantify changes in forest fragmentation, the breaking up of forest land cover into smaller, and more numerous parts, are required to meet forest monitoring objectives. This research provides two new methods that build upon existing approaches widely used for quantifying the spatial patterns of landscape features (i.e., landscape pattern indices). The first approach I demonstrate aids the quantification of forest pattern change over two time periods, by accounting for the impact of composition on spatial configuration. The value of this method is demonstrated using a case study that highlights the impacts of forest harvesting, associated with insect salvage and mitigation activities. This method allows landscapes that have changed primarily in composition to be distinguished from those that have experienced large configurational change. In the second approach I use multivariate cluster analysis for regionalization (the grouping of objects in space), and identify regions within a study area where increased fragmentation is observed. Regions delineated based on forest spatial pattern can be linked to underlying processes. Ancillary information (e.g., elevation) can be used to identify areas where observed forest pattern is due to underlying physiological features. Pattern indices (e.g., patch perimeter-area ratio) can be used to distinguish between patterns arising from forest disturbance that is likely natural (e.g., fire) or anthropogenic (e.g., harvest activity) in origin. The methods presented in this thesis may be most appropriate when observed changes in landscape pattern can be attributed to substantial changes in landscape composition.

This dissertation describes the development of CAMBIUM, an agent-based forest sector model for large-scale strategic analysis. This model is designed as a decision support tool for assessing the effect that changes in forest product demand and resource inventories can have on the structure and economic viability of the forest sector. CAMBIUM complements existing forest sector models by modeling aggregate product supply as an emergent property of individual companies’ production decisions and stand-level ecological processes. Modeling the forest products sector as a group of interacting autonomous agents makes it possible to introduce production capacity dynamics and the potential for mill insolvencies as factors in modeling the effects of market and forest inventory based disturbances. This thesis contains four main manuscripts. In the first manuscript I develop and test a dispersal algorithm that projects aggregated forest inventory information onto a lattice grid. This method can be used to generate ecologically and statistically consistent datasets where high-quality spatial inventory data is otherwise unavailable. The second manuscript utilizes this dataset in developing a provincial-level resource dynamics model for assessing the timber supply effects of introducing weevil-resistant spruce. This model employs a stand-level approach to simulating weevil infestation and associated merchantable volume losses. Provincial-level impacts are determined by simulating harvest activities over a 350 year time horizon. In the third manuscript I shift the focus to interactions between forest companies. I analyze the effects of strategic decisions on sector structure by developing CAMBIUM as an agent-based model of competition and industry structure evolution. The forest sector is modeled as a group of autonomous, interacting agents that evolve and compete within the limitations posed by resource inventories and product demand. In the final manuscript I calibrate CAMBIUM to current conditions in the British Columbia forest sector. Industry agents compete for roundwood inputs, as well as for profits in finished product markets for pulp, panel products, and lumber. To test the relevance and utility of this model, CAMBIUM is used to quantify the cumulative impacts of a market downturn for forest products and mountain pine beetle induced timber supply fluctuations on the structure of the forest sector. / Forestry, Faculty of / Graduate

Magistro darbe vertinami introdukuotų pušų rūšių Kuršių nerijos nacionaliniame parke būklė ir statusas, pažeidimų priežastys, dendrometriniai rodikliai, estetiškumas. Darbo objektas –Kuršių nerijos nacionalinio parko kalninės, juodosios, Bankso ir paprastosios pušų sklypai, kurie įveisti 1896 m. – 1962 m. Juodkrantės (kv.38 skl.29, 39; kv.39 skl.6, 12) ir Smiltynės (Kv.36 skl. 14,16) girininkijose. Darbo tikslas – įvertinti introdukuotų pušų rūšių želdinių būklę ir statusą Kuršių nerijos nacionaliniame parke. Darbo metodai –instrumentinis denrometrinių rodiklių nustatymas, vizualinis medžių įvertinimas, literatūros šaltinių ir dokumentų analizė Darbo rezultatai. 2010 metai medynams nustatyti šie dendrometriniai rodikliai: kalninė pušis Dvid=7.7cm, Dmax=19.5cm, Hvid=6.2m, Hmax=7.5m, tankumas 6000 vnt/ha; Bankso bušis Dvid=10,1cm, Dmax=18cm, Hvid=9.2m, Hmax=12,5m, tankumas 3500 vnt/ha; juodoji pušis Dvid=23,2cm, Dmax=40cm, Hvid=15,1m, Hmax=17,5m, tankumas 931 vnt/ha. Sąlyginai sveiki individai kalninės pušies medynuose nerijos palvėje, sudaro 45%, įvairiu laipsniu pažeisti – 27,92%, o sausuoliai ir virtėliai – 27,08% , Bankso pušies medynus Didžiojo kopagūbrio viršuje, sudaro - sveiki 48,57%, įvairiu laipsniu pažeisti – 45,71%, o sausuoliai ir virtėliai – 5,72% , juodosios pušies medynuose Didžiojo kopagūbrio rytiniame šlaite - sveiki 42,96%, įvairiu laipsniu pažeisti – 50,38%, o sausuoliai ir virtėliai – 6,66% . Visų tirtų introdukuotų pušų rūšių želdinių sanitarinė –... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Master’s work evaluates the invasive pine species in Curonian spit national park, its state and status, causes of damages, tree measurement indicators, aesthetic state. Job object – Curonian spit national park plots of mountain, black and Banks pines, planted 1896 – 1962 in Juodkrante (kv.38 plot.29, 39; kv.39 plot 6, 12), Smiltyne (Kv.36 plot. 14,16) forestries. The aim of the study – to evaluate invasive pine species state and status in Curonian spit national park. Working methods – instrumental tree measurement indicators, visual status evaluation, analyzes of literature and document. Study results – 2010 invasive species the following tree measurement indicators: mountain pine Dvid=7.7cm, Dmax=19.5cm, Hvid=6.2m, Hmax=7.5m, density 6000 units/ha; Banks pine Dvid=10,1cm, Dmax=18cm, Hvid=9.2m, Hmax=12,5m, density 3500 units/ha; black pine Dvid=23,2cm, Dmax=40cm, Hvid=15,1m, Hmax=17,5m, density 931 units/ha. Conditionally healthy individuals in trees of mountain pine that are located in spit palve are 45 %, damaged in different degree – 27,92 %, deadwoods – 27,08 %. Banks pine trees on the top of Huge Dune Ridge : healthy – 48,57%, damaged in different degree - 45,71%, deadwoods - 5,72%. Black pine trees: on the east side of Huge Dune Ridge: healthy 42,96%, damaged in different degree – 50,38%, deadwoods – 6,66 %. Sanitary – higienic state of all evaluated invasive pine species is 3. The second class of aesthetic quality corresponds only Black pine stands on the east on... [to full text]

To address the scale mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in British Columbia, salvage has become fully integrated with timber supply strategies. The objective of this thesis is to assess the economic impact of different salvage strategies depending on different attack levels, decay rates, and stakeholder discount rates. The study area is located in N.E. British Columbia where the MPB has not yet reached its peak and where susceptible to attack stands account for 40% of the area. Salvage strategies were modelled with a timber supply model (Woodstock) which uses a linear programming type II optimization approach. Performance of the model was assessed over a range of indicators such as NPV, profit, salvage proportion, species composition, inventory levels, and non-recoverable volume. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on harvest flow, discount rate, and ending inventory. The model was very sensitive to the intensity of attack and less sensitive to the decay level. The high level of attack resulted in large volume losses, mostly as un-salvaged inventory. Although allowable annual cut (AAC) uplifts have an economic benefit, they do not necessarily maximize the salvage of pine. Non-pine species are an important component of the salvage and these species are also essential for the future timber supply. If the objective is to ensure quality and quantity of the future forest, policies have to complement AAC uplifts by strongly encouraging the salvage of mainly pine-leading stands and management options that minimize the “by-catch” of non-pine species and minimize destruction of advanced regeneration during salvage. However, this has an opportunity cost for the private industry where the objective is to maximize profit. If the salvage strategy focuses on decreasing the impact on cash flows, achieving desirable ending inventory levels, avoiding salvage of stands after shelf-life, and reducing impact on non-attack species, then the current harvest level will likely lead to a mid-term timber supply fall-down. Using the fibre for bioenergy production is an alternative if managing for bioenergy can be integrated into harvest operations. However, unlike mill residues, the bioenergy supply has to fully account for harvest and transportation costs of dead wood to the mill.

There are few methods available for the spatial-temporal analysis of polygon data. This research develops a new method for spatial-temporal analysis of moving polygons (STAMP). Using an event-based framework, polygons from neighboring time periods are related by spatial overlap and proximity. The proximity spatial relation is defined by an application specific distance threshold. STAMP is demonstrated in the spatial-temporal analysis of a wildfire burning over small spatial and temporal scales, and in the spatial-temporal analysis of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Coleoptera: Hopkins) movement patterns over large spatial and temporal scales. The mountain pine beetle analysis found that short range movement patterns of mountain pine beetles occurred at different beetle population levels. Spot proliferation occurred most when beetle presence was increasing slowly, perhaps moving into new areas for the first time. When beetle presence increased rapidly, local expansion, or spot growth, was a more common movement pattern. In the Pine Pass study area. long range dispersal markedly extended the northeast border of the mountain pine beetle range.

To address the scale mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreak in British Columbia, salvage has become fully integrated with timber supply strategies. The objective of this thesis is to assess the economic impact of different salvage strategies depending on different attack levels, decay rates, and stakeholder discount rates. The study area is located in N.E. British Columbia where the MPB has not yet reached its peak and where susceptible to attack stands account for 40% of the area. Salvage strategies were modelled with a timber supply model (Woodstock) which uses a linear programming type II optimization approach. Performance of the model was assessed over a range of indicators such as NPV, profit, salvage proportion, species composition, inventory levels, and non-recoverable volume. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on harvest flow, discount rate, and ending inventory. The model was very sensitive to the intensity of attack and less sensitive to the decay level. The high level of attack resulted in large volume losses, mostly as un-salvaged inventory. Although allowable annual cut (AAC) uplifts have an economic benefit, they do not necessarily maximize the salvage of pine. Non-pine species are an important component of the salvage and these species are also essential for the future timber supply. If the objective is to ensure quality and quantity of the future forest, policies have to complement AAC uplifts by strongly encouraging the salvage of mainly pine-leading stands and management options that minimize the “by-catch” of non-pine species and minimize destruction of advanced regeneration during salvage. However, this has an opportunity cost for the private industry where the objective is to maximize profit. If the salvage strategy focuses on decreasing the impact on cash flows, achieving desirable ending inventory levels, avoiding salvage of stands after shelf-life, and reducing impact on non-attack species, then the current harvest level will likely lead to a mid-term timber supply fall-down. Using the fibre for bioenergy production is an alternative if managing for bioenergy can be integrated into harvest operations. However, unlike mill residues, the bioenergy supply has to fully account for harvest and transportation costs of dead wood to the mill.