Panel data, also known as longitudinal data, are composed of repeated measurements taken from the same subject over different time points. Although it is generally used in time series applications, forecasting can also be used in panel data due to its time dimension. However, there is limited number of studies in this area in the literature. In this thesis, forecasting is studied for panel data with binary response because of its increasing importance and increasing fundamental roles. A simulation study is held to compare the efficiency of different methods and to find the one that gives the optimal forecast values. In this simulation, 21 different methods, including na&iuml / ve and complex ones, are used by the help of R software. It is concluded that transition models and random effects models with no lag of response can be chosen for getting the most accurate forecasts, especially for the first two years of forecasting.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Georgia State University, 2007. / Title from file title page. David L. Sjoquist, committee chair; Geoffrey K. Turnbull, Erdal Tekin, Charles L. Jaret, committee members. Electronic text (118 p.) : digital, PDF file. Description based on contents viewed on July 14, 2008. Includes bibliographical references (p. 107-117).

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / The variability of soil attributes is related to environmental factors affecting soil formation processes. Different techniques have been employed to map this variability, among these techniques, the reading of the magnetic susceptibility (MS) has been shown as an alternative due to its close relationship to the soil other attributes. This study aims to determine the magnetic susceptibility of Oxisol samples in a Rio Grande do Sul experimental area, related to different soil properties to understand the spatial distribution, as well to define different compartments of the landscape. The 350 ha study area is located in Santo Augusto city, three transects where were marked from the higher quota until the lower quota area, totaling 1450 m. In these transects we scored 29 points georeferenced, 50 m distance each one. Samples were collected at 0.00-0.05, 0.05-0.15, 0.15-0.30 and 0.30-0.60 meters depth where we determined the particle size distribution, soil organic carbon and the MS. Also we opened five trenches along the transects distributed over different locations in the relief along the topossequence, where the morphological description, chemical, physical, and mineralogical analysis and MS in the samples of each horizon. In study 1, the profiles data from the attributes were submitted to Pearson linear correlation test to determine the correlation of MS with the other attributes of the soil. With transects data we carried out linear regressions for each depth in order to assess how the MS contributes to the clay, sand, and soil organic carbon prediction. To verify spatial dependence of the attributes in the sample we used points geostatistics with variograms settings. The values were interpolated using the ordinary kriging and subsequently we generated maps of soil attributes on topossequência for the four depths. In the study 2 the data from transects were submitted to descriptive statistics and analysis of the "Split Moving Window" (SMW), to investigate the behavior of the MS in determining the limits of landscape compartments. According to two studies we can infer that the MS has potential for application in the mapping of certain soil attributes, as well potential for determination of landscape compartments limits. / A variabilidade dos atributos do solo está relacionada aos fatores ambientais que condicionam os processos de formação do solo. Diante disso, diferentes técnicas têm sido empregadas para mapear essa variabilidade, dentre estas técnicas, a leitura da suscetibilidade magnética (SM) tem se mostrado como alternativa por sua estreita relação com os demais atributos do solo. O presente estudo tem por objetivo determinar a suscetibilidade magnética de amostras em Latossolos de uma área experimental no Rio Grande do Sul, relacionando com diferentes atributos do solo para compreender a distribuição espacial e delimitar diferentes compartimentos da paisagem. A área de estudo de 350 ha está localizada no município de Santo Augusto, onde foram marcadas três transeções desde a cota mais elevada até a cota mais baixa da área, totalizando 1450 m. Nestas transeções foram marcados 29 pontos georreferenciados, em distância regular de 50 m entre os pontos e entre as transeções. Foram coletadas amostras das profundidades 0,00-0,05, 0,05-0,15, 0,15-0,30 e 0,30-0,60 m onde se determinou a granulometria, carbono orgânico do solo e a SM. Também foram abertas cinco trincheiras ao longo das transeções distribuídas em locais diferenciados no relevo ao longo da topossequência, onde foi realizada a descrição morfológica e análises químicas, físicas, mineralógicas e de SM nas amostras de cada horizonte. No estudo 1, os dados provenientes dos atributos nos perfis foram submetidos ao teste de correlação linear de Pearson para averiguar a correlação da SM com os outros atributos do solo. Com os dados das transeções foram realizadas regressões lineares para cada profundidade a fim de avaliar o quanto a SM contribui para a predição do teor de argila, areia e carbono orgânico do solo. Para verificar a dependência espacial dos atributos nos pontos amostrais, foi utilizada a geoestatística com ajustes de variogramas. Os valores foram interpolados por meio da krigagem ordinária e posteriormente foram gerados mapas dos atributos do solo na topossequência para as quatro profundidades. No estudo 2 os dados provenientes das amostras das transeções foram submetidos à estatística descritiva e análise da ferramenta ―Split Moving Window‖ (SMW), para averiguar o comportamento da SM na determinação dos limites de compartimentos da paisagem. De acordo com os dois estudos pode-se inferir que a SM tem potencial para aplicação no mapeamento de determinados atributos do solo, bem como potencial para determinação de limites dos compartimentos da paisagem.

Orientador : Marcius Cesar Soares Freire / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Artes / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-09T04:26:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Piedade_LuciodeFranciscisdosReis_D.pdf: 43801689 bytes, checksum: f242941cf0b718cef6003ac80d06f525 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007 / Resumo: O trabalho parte da idéia de que desde os primeiros registros com imagens até o estabelecimento do filme como instrumento de pesquisa no campo da antropologia, uma busca pelo incomum, pelo exótico, se constituiu na base de apoio de uma grande parte do cinema documentário. Desse modo, alguns ingredientes geralmente considerados como atributos de um ¿gênero¿ cinematográfico conhecido como filmes exploitation também fazem parte de uma porção importante do cinema documentário. A pesquisa pretende mostrar que, na verdade, o bizarro e o exótico sempre estiveram presentes, desde o início, nos registros do ¿mundo histórico¿ com imagens em movimento. A diferença é que, apesar desses filmes que configuram a vertente principal ou mais relevante do cinema documentário serem objeto de estudos exaustivos, notadamente nas duas últimas décadas, os aspectos que aqui ressaltamos até recentemente vinham sendo deixados de lado. Do mesmo modo são colocados à margem e desprezados enquanto objetos de estudos seus congêneres menos afortunados: as produções categorizadas como mondo ou exploitation que apresentam em seu cerne as estruturas narrativas comuns ao documentário ¿sério¿, inclusive neles se encontrando os vários modos de representação atribuídos ao gênero. O que vai confirmar que os filmes alinhados à vertente da ¿exploração¿ se apropriaram das mesmas bases formais do cinema documentário, só que evidenciando em sua linha narrativa a ênfase em aspectos espetaculares, elementos que sempre estiveram presentes nos documentários considerados mais importantes sob o ponto de vista acadêmico. Sendo assim, o objetivo principal do trabalho foi trazer à luz a exploração no documentário, partindo de suas origens nos filmes exóticos e no nascente cinema exploitation, resgatando a sua história e tentando estabelecer as relações existentes entre o registro documental e seu apelo por cenas impactantes. Chegando até a sua posterior e definitiva assimilação, que terminou desaguando no atual e até certo ponto desconcertante cortejo de produtos áudio visuais, todos devedores da forma de abordagem e estética dos documentários de exploração. O que nos levou a confirmar que a espetacularização dos aspectos sobre os quais nos debruçamos no correr do trabalho ¿ o exotismo, o inusitado e o grotesco ¿ se tornou a forma dominante atualmente no documentário / Abstract: This work investigates the idea that a quest for the uncommon and exotic supports a significant portion of the documentary cinema, since the first registers of images in movement until the recognition of movies as an important tool in anthropology research. So that, some ingredients generally considered as attributes of a cinematographic genre ¿ the exploitation films - are also found in an important portion of the documentary cinema. This research aims to show that, actually, the bizarre and exotic have been present since the earlier registers of the historical world with images in movement. Although these films that configure the mainstream of the documentary cinema have been object of exhausting studies - notably over the last decades - the aspects that we stand out here has being almost ignored until recently. Similarly, less fortunate congeners of "serious" documentary cinema, which are productions categorized as mondo or exploitation, are also rejected as object of study. What confirms that the films lined up to the rank of the exploration had appropriated the same formal bases of the documentary cinema, evidencing in its narrative line the emphasis on spectacular aspects, elements that had always been presents in documentaries considered more important under an academic point of view. The main contribution of this work is to bring to light the exploration in the documentary films, since its origins in the exotic films and the rising of exploitation cinema, rescuing its history and trying to establish the existing relations between the documentary register and its appeal for shocking scenes. This relation strengthened until the definitive assimilation in the current and ¿ to a certain degree - disconcerting procession of audiovisual products, all debtors from exploration documentaries¿ approach and aesthetic. This support our conclusion that the over exhibition of the aspects on which we lean over - the exotic, the unusual and the grotesque - currently became the dominant form in the documentary film / Doutorado / Doutor em Multimeios

Neste trabalho estudamos a questão de simetria de soluções positivas de equações e sistemas de equações diferenciais parciais. Descrevemos em detalhe a demonstração de dois resultados sobre simetria radial, um para equações em domínios limitados e outro para sistemas de equações no espaço todo. Ambas as demonstrações baseiam-se no método dos moving planes. Em seguida aplicamos um dos resultados mencionados acima para a equação de Choquard. / In this work we study the question of symmetry for positive solutions of equations and systems of partial differential equations. We describe in detail the proof of two results on radial symmetry, one for equations in bounded domains and the other for systems of equations in the whole space. Both proofs are based on the method of moving planes. We apply one of the results mentioned above for the Choquards equation.

Orientador: Francisco Elinaldo Teixeira / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Artes / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-22T23:32:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rasia_RegisOrlando_M.pdf: 2828650 bytes, checksum: 4654948f231d2feae25358c25a3a6fd4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: Analisaremos o processo criativo dos filmes de Rogério Sganzerla que tratam da passagem de Orson Welles pelo Brasil em 1942: Nem tudo é verdade, Linguagem de Orson Welles, Tudo é Brasil e O signo do caos. Um gigantesco inventário de materiais viria a compor as narrativas que resgatam a passagem de Welles pelo Brasil. Sganzerla investiga os motivos da finitude e o esquecimento do projeto, cristalizando a sua pesquisa em imagens e sons no cinema, integrando gostos, gêneros e estilos passando pelo denso uso de materiais de arquivo / Abstract: We will discuss the creative process the films of Rogério Sganzerla, approaching the passage of Orson Welles by Brazil in 1942: Nem tudo é verdade, Linguagem de Orson Welles, Tudo é Brasil e O signo do caos. A huge inventory of materials would compose these narratives rescuing the passage of Welles by Brazil. Sganzerla investigates the motives of the finitude and forgetfulness of the project, crystallizing your search with images and sounds on cinema, integrating tastes, genres and styles through the dense use of archival materials / Mestrado / Multimeios / Mestre em Multimeios

In this thesis our primary interest is in developing adaptive solution methods for parabolic and elliptic partial differential equations. The convection-diffusion equation is used as a representative test problem. Investigations are made into adaptive temporal solvers implementing only a few changes to existing software. This includes a comparison of commercial code against some more academic releases. A novel way to select step sizes for an adaptive BDF2 code is introduced. A chapter is included introducing some functional analysis that is required to understand aspects of the finite element method and error estimation. Two error estimators are derived and proofs of their error bounds are covered. A new finite element package is written, implementing a rather interesting error estimator in one dimension to drive a rather standard refinement/coarsening type of adaptivity. This is compared to a commercially available partial differential equation solver and an investigation into the properties of the two inspires the development of a new method designed to very quickly and directly equidistribute the errors between elements. This new method is not really a refinement technique but doesn't quite fit the traditional description of a moving mesh either. We show that this method is far more effective at equidistribution of errors than a simple moving mesh method and the original simple adaptive method. A simple extension of the new method is proposed that would be a mesh reconstruction method. Finally the new code is extended to solve steady-state problems in two dimensions. The mesh refinement method from one dimension does not offer a simple extension, so the error estimator is used to supply an impression of the local topology of the error on each element. This in turn allows us to develop a new anisotropic refinement algorithm, which is more in tune with the nature of the error on the parent element. Whilst the benefits observed in one dimension are not directly transferred into the two-dimensional case, the obtained meshes seem to better capture the topology of the solution.

The recent growth in sensor technology allows easier information gathering in real-time as sensors have grown smaller, more accurate, and less expensive. The resulting data is often in a geo-stream format continuously changing input with a spatial extent. Researchers developing geo-streaming management systems (GSMS) require a benchmark system for evaluation, which is currently lacking. This thesis presents GSMark, a benchmark for evaluating GSMSs. GSMark provides a data generator that creates a combination of synthetic and real geo-streaming data, a workload simulator to present the data to the GSMS as a data stream, and a set of benchmark queries that evaluate typical GSMS functionality and query performance. In particular, GSMark generates both moving points and evolving spatial regions, two fundamental data types for a broad range of geo-stream applications, and the geo-streaming queries on this data.

Temperature isoclines are shifting with global warming. To survive, species with thermal niches must shift their geographical ranges to stay within the bounds of their suitable habitat, or acclimate to a new environment. Mathematical models that study range shifts are called moving-habitat models. The literature is rich and includes modelling with reaction-diffusion equations. Much of this literature represents space by the real line, with a handful studying 2-dimensional domains that are unbounded in at least one direction. The suitable habitat is represented by the set over which the demographics (reaction term) has a positive net growth rate. In some cases, this is a bounded set, in others, it is not. The unsuitable habitat is represented by the set over which the net growth rate is negative. The environmental shift is captured by an imposed shift of the suitable habitat. Individuals respond to their environment via their movement behaviour and many display habitat-dependent dispersal rates and a habitat bias. Such behaviour corresponds to a jump in density across the interface of suitable and unsuitable habitat. The questions motivating moving-habitat models are: when can a species track its shifting habitat and what is the impact of an environmental shift on a persisting species. Without closed form solutions, researchers rely on numerical methods to study the latter, and depending on the movement of the interface, the former may require numerical tools as well. We construct and analyse two numerical methods, a finite difference (FD) scheme and a finite element (FE) method in 1- and 2-dimensional space, respectively. The FD scheme can capture arbitrary movement of the boundary, and the FE method rather general shapes for the suitable habitat. The difficulty arises in capturing the jump across a shifting interface. We construct a reference frame in which the interfaces are fixed in time. We capture the jump in density with a clever placing of the nodes in the FD scheme, and through a Lagrange multiplier in the FE method. With biological applications, we demonstrate the power of our solvers in advancing research for moving-habitat models.

Bus systems have a large passenger capacity when compared to personal vehicles and thus have the potential to improve urban mobility. However, buses that operate in mixed vehicle traffic can undermine the effectiveness of the road system as they travel at lower speeds, take longer to accelerate and stop frequently to board and alight passengers. In traffic flow theory, buses are known as slow-moving bottlenecks that have the potential to create queue-spillbacks and thus increase the probability of gridlock. Currently, traditional metropolitan transportation planning models do not account for these negative effects on roadway capacity. Also, research methods that study multimodal operations are often simulated or algorithmic which can only provide specific results for defined inputs. The objective of this research is to model and understand the effects of bus operations (e.g., headway, number of stops, number of routes) on system performance (e.g. urban corridor and network vehicular capacity) using a parsimonious analytical approach with a few parameters.The models are built using the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) of traffic which provides aggregate measures of vehicle density and flow. Existing MFD theory, which accounts for corridors with only one vehicle class are extended to include network roadway systems and bus operations. The results indicate that buses have two major effects on corridors: the moving bottleneck and the bus short-block effect. Also, these corridor effects are expanded to urban networks through a vehicle density-weighted average. The models have the potential to transform urban multimodal operations and management as they provide a simple tool to capture aggregate performance of transportation systems.