分析層級程序法在產品刪除決策之應用 / The recent explosion of product management in consumer packaged goods has highlighted the importance of product assortment decisions. In particular, firms are increasingly faced with the decision of which products to delete from distribution. Upon reflection, there are both strategic and tactical dimensions to this decision. Strategic approaches focus on the development of optimal product assortments as the basis for deletion decisions. Tactical approaches address incremental (i.e., item-by- item) decisions whether to delete any product, and if so, which product. This thesis focuses on tactical approaches and proposes using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a systematic and analytic tool that helps to quantify the managerial judgments in identifying the candidates for product deletion. Supported by a practical case study, which illustrates how AHP can be beneficial in quantifying both financial and non-financial product performance rankings for managers’ easier understanding and higher transparency of product deletion decision-making.

Decision making study has been the multi-disciplinary research involving operations researchers, management scientists, statisticians, mathematical psychologists and economists as well as others. This study aims to investigate the theory and methodology of decision making research and apply them to different contexts in real cases. The study has reviewed the literature of Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach, Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) movement, Social Judgment Theory (SJT), and Adaptive Toolbox (AT) program. On the basis of these literatures, two methods, Evidence-based Trade-Off (EBTO) and Judgment Analysis with Heuristic Modelling (JA-HM), have been proposed and developed to accomplish decision making problems under different conditions. In the EBTO method, we propose a novel framework to aid people s decision making under uncertainty and imprecise goal. Under the framework, the imprecise goal is objectively modelled through an analytical structure, and is independent of the task requirement; the task requirement is specified by the trade-off strategy among criteria of the analytical structure through an importance weighting process, and is subject to the requirement change of a particular decision making task; the evidence available, that could contribute to the evaluation of general performance of the decision alternatives, are formulated with belief structures which are capable of capturing various format of uncertainties that arise from the absence of data, incomplete information and subjective judgments. The EBTO method was further applied in a case study of Soldier system decision making. The application has demonstrated that EBTO, as a tool, is able to provide a holistic analysis regarding the requirements of Soldier missions, the physical conditions of Soldiers, and the capability of their equipment and weapon systems, which is critical in domain. By drawing the cross-disciplinary literature from NDM and AT, the JA-HM extended the traditional Judgment Analysis (JA) method, through a number of novel methodological procedures, to account for the unique features of decision making tasks under extreme time pressure and dynamic shifting situations. These novel methodological procedures include, the notion of decision point to deconstruct the dynamic shifting situations in a way that decision problem could be identified and formulated; the classification of routine and non-routine problems, and associated data alignment process to enable meaningful decision data analysis across different decision makers (DMs); the notion of composite cue to account for the DMs iterative process of information perception and comprehension in dynamic task environment; the application of computational models of heuristics to account for the time constraints and process dynamics of DMs decision making process; and the application of cross-validation process to enable the methodological principle of competitive testing of decision models. The JA-HM was further applied in a case study of fire emergency decision making. The application has been the first behavioural test of the validity of the computational models of heuristics, in predicting the DMs decision making during fire emergency response. It has also been the first behavioural test of the validity of the non-compensatory heuristics in predicting the DMs decisions on ranking task. The findings identified extend the literature of AT and NDM, and have implications for the fire emergency decision making.

Because of the increasing demand for the provision of energy worldwide and the numerous damages caused by a major use of fossil sources, the contribution of renewable energies has been increasing significantly in the global energy mix with the aim at moving towards a more sustainable development. In this context, this work aims at the development of a general methodology for designing PV systems based on ecodesign principles and taking into account simultaneously both techno-economic and environmental considerations. In order to evaluate the environmental performance of PV systems, an environmental assessment technique was used based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The environmental model was successfully coupled with the design stage model of a PV grid-connected system (PVGCS). The PVGCS design model was then developed involving the estimation of solar radiation received in a specific geographic location, the calculation of the annual energy generated from the solar radiation received, the characteristics of the different components and the evaluation of the techno-economic criteria through Energy PayBack Time (EPBT) and PayBack Time (PBT). The performance model was then embedded in an outer multi-objective genetic algorithm optimization loop based on a variant of NSGA-II. A set of Pareto solutions was generated representing the optimal trade-off between the objectives considered in the analysis. A multi-variable statistical method (i.e., Principal Componet Analysis, PCA) was then applied to detect and omit redundant objectives that could be left out of the analysis without disturbing the main features of the solution space. Finally, a decision-making tool based on M-TOPSIS was used to select the alternative that provided a better compromise among all the objective functions that have been investigated. The results showed that while the PV modules based on c-Si have a better performance in energy generation, the environmental aspect is what makes them fall to the last positions. TF PV modules present the best trade-off in all scenarios under consideration. A special attention was paid to recycling process of PV module even if there is not yet enough information currently available for all the technologies evaluated. The main cause of this lack of information is the lifetime of PV modules. The data relative to the recycling processes for m-Si and CdTe PV technologies were introduced in the optimization procedure for ecodesign. By considering energy production and EPBT as optimization criteria into a bi-objective optimization cases, the importance of the benefits of PV modules end-of-life management was confirmed. An economic study of the recycling strategy must be investigated in order to have a more comprehensive view for decision making.

Submitted by JOSÉ LEONARDO DA SILVEIRA GUIMARÃES null (leonardo.guimaraes@urca.br) on 2017-09-04T20:28:16Z No. of bitstreams: 1 guimaraes_jls_dr_guara.pdf: 2321230 bytes, checksum: fd38370b008eaec1ea7a082c44f8612e (MD5) / Rejected by LUIZA DE MENEZES ROMANETTO (luizamenezes@reitoria.unesp.br), reason: Solicitado pelo autor. on 2017-09-05T16:19:18Z (GMT) / Submitted by JOSÉ LEONARDO DA SILVEIRA GUIMARÃES null (leonardo.guimaraes@urca.br) on 2017-09-05T18:29:14Z No. of bitstreams: 1 guimaraes_jls_dr_guara.pdf: 2322731 bytes, checksum: fb47e22a03ec4c94224c6fc3d772a1e5 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luiz Galeffi (luizgaleffi@gmail.com) on 2017-09-06T15:24:17Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 guimaraes_jls_dr_guara.pdf: 2322731 bytes, checksum: fb47e22a03ec4c94224c6fc3d772a1e5 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-09-06T15:24:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 guimaraes_jls_dr_guara.pdf: 2322731 bytes, checksum: fb47e22a03ec4c94224c6fc3d772a1e5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-07-07 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Aspectos econômicos, legais, ambientais e sociais tornam a Logística Reversa (LR) um assunto de destaque nos meios empresarial e acadêmico, considerando que sua função é a gestão dos processos de retorno de materiais, para tornar viável o reaproveitamento ou destino final adequado. Tendo em vista a movimentação de materiais existente nas redes logísticas existentes em clusters industriais, verifica-se na literatura a falta de estudos específicos referentes às operações de retorno associadas à LR. Por outro lado, os clusters industriais possuem reconhecida importância para economias regionais, por meio do fortalecimento de pequenas e médias empresas. Neste sentido, este trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar as atividades relacionadas à LR no cluster industrial calçadista de Juazeiro do Norte - CE, buscando identificar particularidades estruturais e gerenciais. Essas particularidades estão relacionadas a diversos fatores, e, além dos já citados, também são determinantes o tipo de produto e seus materiais constituintes, relações com stakeholders, tecnologia entre outros. O estudo foi desenvolvido por meio de pesquisa exploratória utilizando o método de estudo de caso, incluindo entrevistas e observações diretas. A análise foi feita utilizando um modelo de tomada de decisão multicritério que aplica o Analytic Network Process (ANP) e o Balanced Scorecard (BSC) para avaliar aspectos gerenciais estratégicos da LR. Utilizando-se a teoria da compatibilidade para quantificar o nível de similaridade entre vetores de decisão, os resultados obtidos foram comparados com respeito às diferenças entre unidades de estudo, assim como em relação aos dados mais gerais da indústria brasileira. Como resultados, identificou-se que as atividades da LR no cluster em foco são fortemente influenciadas pelas características do produto, por aspectos relacionados às aglomerações produtivas, no que se refere à economia e competitividade, assim como às diferenças existentes na gestão das empresas. / Economic, legal, environmental and social aspects turn Reverse Logistics (RL) an important subject in business and academic circles, considering that its function is managing processes of return of materials, to make feasible the reutilization or proper disposal. Taking into account the flow of materials in supply chain existing in industrial clusters, it is verified lack of specific studies regarding return operations associated with LR. On the other hand, industrial clusters are very important for regional economies, through strengthening of small and medium enterprises. In this sense, this work aims to evaluate the activities related to RL in the footwear industrial cluster of Juazeiro do Norte city, Ceará state, seeking to identify structural and managerial particularities. These particularities are related to several factors, and, in addition to those already mentioned, are also determinants the type of product and its constituent materials, relations with stakeholders, technology, and others. The study was developed through exploratory research using the case study method, including interviews and direct observations. In the analysis, was used a multicriteria decision-making model that applies the Analytic Network Process (ANP) and the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) to evaluate strategic managerial aspects of LR. Using the theory of compatibility to quantify the level of similarity between decision vectors, the results obtained were compared with respect to the differences between study units, as well as in relation to the more general data of the Brazilian industry. As a result, it was identified that the activities of LR in the cluster in focus are strongly influenced by the characteristics of the product, aspects related to productive agglomerations respect to economy and competitiveness, as well as differences in management of the companies.

En raison de la demande croissante d’énergie dans le monde et des nombreux dommages causés par l’utilisation des énergies fossiles, la contribution des énergies renouvelables a augmenté de manière significative dans le mix énergétique global dans le but de progresser vers un développement plus durable. Dans ce contexte, ce travail vise à l’élaboration d’une méthodologie générale pour la conception de systèmes photovoltaïques, basée sur les principes d’écoconception, en tenant compte simultanément des considérations technico-économiques et environnementales. Afin d’évaluer la performance environnementale des systèmes PV, une technique d’évaluation environnementale basée sur l’Analyse du Cycle de Vie (ACV) a été utilisée. Le modèle environnemental a été couplé d’une manière satisfaisante avec le modèle de conception d’un système PV connecté au réseau pour obtenir un modèle global, apte à un traitement par optimisation. Le modèle de conception du système PV résultant a été développé en faisant intervenir l’estimation du rayonnement solaire reçu dans une zone géographique concernée, le calcul de la quantité annuelle d’énergie produite à partir du rayonnement solaire reçu, les caractéristiques des différents composants et l’évaluation des critères technico-économiques à travers le temps de retour énergétique et le temps de retour sur investissement. Le modèle a ensuite été intégré dans une boucle d’optimisation multi-objectif externe basée sur une variante de l’algorithme génétique NSGA-II. Un ensemble de solutions du Pareto a été généré représentant le compromis optimal entre les différents objectifs considérés dans l’analyse. Une méthode basée sur une Analyse en Composantes Principales (ACP) est appliquée pour détecter et enlever les objectifs redondants de l’analyse sans perturber les caractéristiques principales de l’espace des solutions. Enfin, un outil d’aide à la décision basé sur M- TOPSIS a été utilisé pour sélectionner l’option qui offre un meilleur compromis entre toutes les fonctions objectifs considérées et étudiées. Bien que les modules photovoltaïques à base de silicium cristallin (c-Si) ont une meilleure performance vis-à-vis de la production d’énergie, les résultats ont montré que leur impact environnement est le plus élevé des filières technologiques de production de panneaux. Les technologies en « couches minces » présentent quant à elles le meilleur compromis dans tous les scénarios étudiés. Une attention particulière a été accordée aux processus de recyclage des modules PV, en dépit du peu d’informations disponibles pour toutes les technologies évaluées. La cause majeure de ce manque d’information est la durée de vie relativement élevée des modules photovoltaïques. Les données relatives aux procédés de recyclage pour les technologies basées sur CdTe et m-Si sont introduites dans la procédure d’optimisation par l’écoconception. En tenant compte de la production d’énergie et du temps de retour sur énergie comme critères d’optimisation, l’avantage de la gestion de fin de vie des modules PV a été confirmé. Une étude économique de la stratégie de recyclage doit être considérée et étudiée afin d’avoir une vision plus globale pour la prise de décision. / Because of the increasing demand for the provision of energy worldwide and the numerous damages caused by a major use of fossil sources, the contribution of renewable energies has been increasing significantly in the global energy mix with the aim at moving towards a more sustainable development. In this context, this work aims at the development of a general methodology for designing PV systems based on ecodesign principles and taking into account simultaneously both techno-economic and environmental considerations. In order to evaluate the environmental performance of PV systems, an environmental assessment technique was used based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The environmental model was successfully coupled with the design stage model of a PV grid-connected system (PVGCS). The PVGCS design model was then developed involving the estimation of solar radiation received in a specific geographic location, the calculation of the annual energy generated from the solar radiation received, the characteristics of the different components and the evaluation of the techno-economic criteria through Energy PayBack Time (EPBT) and PayBack Time (PBT). The performance model was then embedded in an outer multi-objective genetic algorithm optimization loop based on a variant of NSGA-II. A set of Pareto solutions was generated representing the optimal trade-off between the objectives considered in the analysis. A multi-variable statistical method (i.e., Principal Componet Analysis, PCA) was then applied to detect and omit redundant objectives that could be left out of the analysis without disturbing the main features of the solution space. Finally, a decision-making tool based on M-TOPSIS was used to select the alternative that provided a better compromise among all the objective functions that have been investigated. The results showed that while the PV modules based on c-Si have a better performance in energy generation, the environmental aspect is what makes them fall to the last positions. TF PV modules present the best trade-off in all scenarios under consideration. A special attention was paid to recycling process of PV module even if there is not yet enough information currently available for all the technologies evaluated. The main cause of this lack of information is the lifetime of PV modules. The data relative to the recycling processes for m-Si and CdTe PV technologies were introduced in the optimization procedure for ecodesign. By considering energy production and EPBT as optimization criteria into a bi-objective optimization cases, the importance of the benefits of PV modules end-of-life management was confirmed. An economic study of the recycling strategy must be investigated in order to have a more comprehensive view for decision making.

L’objectif de ce travail est de développer un cadre méthodologique et générique d’éco-conception de procédés chimiques couplant des outils de modélisation et de simulation traditionnels de procédés (HYSYS, COCO, ProSimPlus et Ariane), d’Analyse du Cycle de Vie (ACV), d’optimisation multiobjectif basée sur des Algorithmes Génétiques et enfin des outils d’aide à la décision multicritère (ELECTRE, PROMETHEE, M-TOPSIS). Il s’agit de généraliser, d’automatiser et d’optimiser l’évaluation des impacts environnementaux au stade préliminaire de la conception d’un procédé chimique. L’approche comprend trois étapes principales. Les deux premières correspondent d’une part aux phases d’analyse de l’inventaire par calcul des bilans de matière et d’énergie et d’autre part à l’évaluation environnementale par ACV. Le problème du manque d’information ou de l’imprécision dans les bases de données classiques en ACV pour la production d’énergie notamment sous forme de vapeur largement utilisée dans les procédés a reçu une attention particulière. Une solution proposée consiste à utiliser un simulateur de procédés de production d’utilités (Ariane, ProSim SA) pour contribuer à alimenter la base de données environnementale en tenant compte de variations sur les conditions opératoires ou sur les technologies utilisées. Des sous-modules « énergie » sont ainsi proposés pour calculer les émissions relatives aux impacts liés à l’utilisation de l’énergie dans les procédés. La troisième étape réalise l’interaction entre les deux premières phases et l’optimisation multi-objectif qui met en jeu des critères économiques et environnementaux. Elle conduit à des solutions de compromis le long du front de Pareto à partir desquelles les meilleures sont choisies à l’aide de méthodes d’aide à la décision. L’approche est appliquée à des procédés de production continus : production de benzène par hydrodéalkylation du toluène HDA et production de biodiesel à partir d’huiles végétales. Une stratégie à plusieurs niveaux est mise en oeuvre pour l'analyse de l'optimisation multi-objectif. Elle est utilisée dans les deux cas d'étude afin d'analyser les comportements antagonistes des critères. / The objective of this work is to propose an integrated and generic framework for eco-design coupling traditional modelling and flowsheeting simulation tools (HYSYS, COCO, ProSimPlus and Ariane), Life Cycle Assessment, multi-objective optimization based on Genetic Algorithms and multiple criteria decision-making methods MCDM (Multiple Choice Decision Making, such as ELECTRE, PROMETHEE, M-TOPSIS) that generalizes, automates and optimizes the evaluation of the environmental criteria at earlier design stage. The approach consists of three main stages. The first two steps correspond respectively to process inventory analysis based on mass and energy balances and impact assessment phases of LCA methodology. Specific attention is paid to the main issues that can be encountered with database and impact assessment i.e. incomplete or missing information, or approximate information that does not match exactly the real situation that may introduce a bias in the environmental impact estimation. A process simulation tool dedicated to production utilities, Ariane, ProSim SA is used to fill environmental database gap, by the design of specific energy sub modules, so that the life cycle energy related emissions for any given process can be computed. The third stage of the methodology is based on the interaction of the previous steps with process simulation for environmental impact assessment and cost estimation through a computational framework. The use of multi-objective optimization methods generally leads to a set of efficient solutions, the so-called Pareto front. The next step consists in identifying the best ones through MCDM methods. The approach is applied to two processes operating in continuous mode. The capabilities of the methodology are highlighted through these case studies (benzene production by HDA process and biodiesel production from vegetable oils). A multi-level assessment for multi-objective optimization is implemented for both cases, the explored pathways depending on the analysis and antagonist behaviour of the criteria.