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1	An analysis of a dust storm impacting Operation Iraqi Freedom, 25-27 March 2003 Anderson, John W. 12 1900 (has links) Approved for public release; distribution in unlimited. / On day five of combat operations during Operation IRAQI FREEDOM, advances by coalition forces were nearly halted by a dust storm, initiated by the passage of a synoptically driven cold front. This storm impacted ground and air operations across the entire Area of Responsibility, and delayed an impending ground attack on the Iraqi capital. Military meteorologists were able to assist military planners in mitigating at least some of the effects of this storm. This thesis examines the synoptic conditions leading to the severe dust storm, evaluates the numerical weather prediction model performance in predicting the event, and reviews metrics pertaining to the overall impacts on the Operation IRAQI FREEDOM combined air campaign. In general, the numerical model guidance correctly predicted the location and onset of the dust storms on 25 March, 2003. As a result of this forecast guidance, mission planners were able to front load Air Tasking Orders with extra sorties prior to the onset of the dust storm, and were able to make changes to planned weapons loads, favoring GPS-guided munitions. / Captain, United States Air Force Iraq War, 2003- Logistics Dust storms Iraq Forecasting Sandstorms Weather forecasting Operation IRAQI FREEDOM Southwest Asia Iraq Middle East Case Study Analysis Dust Storm Sand Storm Shamal Synoptic Cold Front Extra-tropical Cyclone Numerical Weather Prediction Models NOGAPS COAMPS GFS
2	Characteristic errors in 120-H tropical cyclone track forecasts in the western North Pacific Kehoe, Ryan M. 03 1900 (has links) Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / occurring most frequently. For the 217 large-error cases due to midlatitude influences, the most frequent error mechanisms were E-DCI (midlatitude), excessive response to vertical wind shear, excessive midlatitude cyclogenesis (E-MCG), insufficient midlatitude cyclogenesis (I-MCG), excessive midlatitude cyclolysis (E-MCL) and excessive midlatitude anticyclogenesis (E-MAG), which accounted for 68% of all large errors occurring in both NOGAPS and GFDN. Characteristics and symptoms of the erroneous forecast tracks and model fields are documented and illustrative case studies are presented. Proper identification and removal of the track forecast displaying an error mechanism could form a selective consensus that will be more accurate than a non-selective consensus. / Captain, United States Air Force Cyclone forecasting North Pacific Ocean Cyclones Tropics Tracking Atmospheric circulation Tropical cyclone track forecasting Systematic approach Conceptual model error mechanisms Dynamical model track errors Joint Typhoon Warning Center Western North Pacific typhoons

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An analysis of a dust storm impacting Operation Iraqi Freedom, 25-27 March 2003

Characteristic errors in 120-H tropical cyclone track forecasts in the western North Pacific