This report covers a study testing the possibility of adding portfolio optimization by mean-variance analysis as a tool to extend the concept of momentum strategies in contrast to naive allocation formed by Jegadeesh & Titman (1993). Further these active investment strategies are compared with a passive benchmark as well as a randomly selected portfolio over the entire study-period. The study showed that the naive allocation model outperformed the mean-variance model both economically as well as statistically. No indication where obtained for a lagged return effect when letting a mean-variance model choose weights for a quarterly holding period and the resulting investment recommendation is to follow a naive investment strategy within a momentum framework.

The combination of two or more portfolio rules is theoretically convex in return-risk space, which provides for a new class of portfolio rules that gives purpose to the Mean-Variance framework out-of-sample. The author investigates the performance loss from estimation risk between the unconstrained Mean-Variance portfolio and the out-of-sample Global Minimum Variance portfolio. A new two-fund rule is developed in a specific class of combined rules, between the equally weighted portfolio and a mean-variance portfolio with the covariance matrix being estimated by linear shrinkage. The study shows that this rule performs well out-of-sample when covariance estimation error and bias are balanced. The rule is performing at least as good as its peer group in this class of combined rules.

Submitted by Daniel Pires (danielpcr@hotmail.com) on 2011-03-02T17:43:09Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Daniel Pires Campos Ribeiro - Revisão v2.pdf: 522500 bytes, checksum: 34144c9e44a0828dcc774f0e934b9d42 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Gisele Gammaro(gisele.gammaro@fgv.br) on 2011-03-02T18:45:08Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Daniel Pires Campos Ribeiro - Revisão v2.pdf: 522500 bytes, checksum: 34144c9e44a0828dcc774f0e934b9d42 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2011-03-14T14:12:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação - Daniel Pires Campos Ribeiro - Revisão v2.pdf: 522500 bytes, checksum: 34144c9e44a0828dcc774f0e934b9d42 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-12-16 / The Prospect Theory is one of the basis of Behavioral Finance and models the investor behavior in a different way than von Neumann and Morgenstern Utility Theory. Behavioral characteristics are evaluated for different control groups, validating the violation of Utility Theory Axioms. Naïve Diversification is also verified, utilizing the 1/n heuristic strategy for investment funds allocations. This strategy causes different fixed and equity allocations, compared to the desirable exposure, given the exposure of the subsample that answered a non constrained allocation question. When compared to non specialists, specialists in finance are less risk averse and allocate more of their wealth on equity. / A Teoria do Prospecto é uma das bases das novas Finanças Comportamentais e tenta modelar de forma distinta da Teoria de Utilidade Esperada o comportamento dos investidores, indo além da racionalidade. A avaliação das características comportamentais identifica padrões de comportamento para grupos de controle, confirmando violações aos axiomas da Teoria da Utilidade Esperada. É verificado também que a alocação de investimentos é compatível com a teoria de diversificação ingênua, utilizando a estratégia heurística 1/n para as alocações em fundos de investimento. Além disso, verificamos que esta estratégia de alocação implica em uma exposição à renda fixa e variável diferente da realmente preferida, quando tomada como parâmetro a alocação de um subgrupo da amostra que revelou a alocação desejada em uma pergunta sem restrições. Quando comparados aos não especialistas em finanças, a propensão a risco e alocação em renda variável dos especialistas em finanças é maior.