The increasing frequency and economic losses from natural disasters within the framework of decreasing agricultural prices and trade liberalization is becoming crucial in increasing poverty in the Mexican rural economy. During the past two decades, the governmental withdrawal from supporting the agricultural sector with investments in physical, financial and logistic instruments continues to stress agricultural livelihoods, as current private mechanisms have not replaced them effectively. It has contributed to making the agricultural sector particularly vulnerable to a number of hazards as it has weakened economic agents' response and impeded assets accumulation. This dissertation identifies economic vulnerability to natural and economic hazards in order to assess public and private coping capacity, and provides a conceptual framework and economic theory that supports the overall approach and employed methodologies. It is based on quantitative and qualitative research methods, and makes use of econometric analysis and stakeholders' views aimed at finding feasible solutions. Further, this dissertation offers a spatial model that can support policy-decision-making for the creation of differential investments in productive infrastructure, as well as financial instruments to reduce current vulnerability and poverty throughout the national territory. During the past two decades, over 80% of total economic losses from weather-related disasters occurred in the agricultural sector. In the same period, mean weighted agricultural prices have decreased over 50% in real terms, and since 1996 a trade deficit has persisted in this sector. Currently, the insufficient credit access, low coverage of crop insurance, as well as the near lack of investments to expand irrigation and further productive infrastructure is sharpening the vulnerability of rural livelihoods. These facts explain why this sector produces only 4% of the GDP despite employing over 20% of the national workforce. These facts undermine farmers' expectations of future incomes within the community, stimulating rural-urban out migration, which usually cannot be absorbed by the urban economy in sight of the modest industrial dynamism of the recent years. This leads to the enlargement of the informal sector in large cities and migratory flows to abroad, among others. (author's abstract)

Teilw. zugl.: Paris 3, Univ., Diss. / Literauturverz. S. 321 - 344. - Webliogr. S. 344 - [345]

[pt] A crescente participação das Forças Armadas (FA) em cooperação com a Defesa Civil em situações de desastres naturais tem demonstrado a importância do aprofundamento e aprimoramento dos estudos da logística humanitária no campo militar. Sabendo que a excelência nos processos pode gerar economia dos recursos a serem mobilizados para alcançar as necessidades da população afetada, bem como a minimização do tempo de resposta, este estudo objetiva apresentar e analisar as atividades de resposta a desastres naturais desempenhadas pela Força Aérea Brasileira (FAB), sob a ótica da modelagem de processos. Para isso, realiza-se um estudo de caso pautado no mapeamento das atividades realizadas pela Aeronáutica com base nas legislações em vigor e com base na operação real de apoio às vítimas do desastre da região serrana fluminense em 2011, considerada uma das maiores tragédias climáticas ocorridas no Brasil. Simultaneamente, é conduzida uma comparação de adequação ao padrão em relação à literatura acadêmica. Os resultados deste trabalho apontam para processos realizados pela FAB que podem ser considerados na elaboração de uma doutrina específica relativa ao tema e ainda os processos não previstos nas legislações vigentes, os quais podem ser objeto de futuras pesquisas na FAB, além de sugerir a inclusão de processos não representados nos modelos de processos de resposta a desastre da literatura acadêmica. Com isso, almeja-se subsidiar futuras pesquisa no meio acadêmico sobre o tema, bem como contribuir para a elaboração de uma doutrina específica relativa a essas atividades, a fim de se obter uma maior eficácia e eficiência no apoio da FAB em missões humanitárias. / [en] The growing participation of the Armed Forces (AF) in natural disasters situations has ratified the importance of deepening and improvement of studies in humanitarian logistics in the military field. Knowing that excellence in processes can generate savings of resources to be mobilized to meet the needs of the affected population as well as minimizing the response time, this study aims to present and analyze the response activities to natural disasters performed by the Brazilian Air Force (BRAF), from the perspective of process modeling. For this, a case study is carried out according to the mapping of activities performed by the BRAF based on the legislation in place and on a real operation of support to victims of a disaster in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in 2011, considered one of the biggest climate tragedy in Brazil. Simultaneously, a pattern matching comparability in relation to the academic literature is conducted. The results of this study point to processes performed by the BRAF that can be considered in the preparation of a specific doctrine on the subject and to processes not considered in current legislation, which may be the subject of future research in the BRAF. It also suggests the inclusion of processes not represented in process models of disaster response in the academic literature. Thus, it aims to support future studies in academic research on the subject, as well as contribute to the development of a specific doctrine on these activities in order to achieve greater effectiveness and efficiency in the BRAF support for humanitarian missions.

Although there are cartographic norms that guide map creation, there is no standardization for thematic maps. Then, most of them are usually made in accordance with the freedom of the professional. So, the aim of this work is to propose a cartographic standardization for flood emergencial charter-image. For this purpose, about 60 flood charter-image and maps made by several institutions, programs and projects, such as the Disasters Charter, UNOSAT and mappings from theses, dissertations, undergraduation final papers, and others were analyzed. A questionnaire was also applied to several professionals who work with maps in different ways, with different themes, being 33 of them answered. The points used in the analysis of the maps and the questionnaire are quite similar, allowing a relationship between them. We noticed that the flood charters-image and maps differ on many issues, deficiencies were observed, such as lack of elements (title, scale, datum, projection, north, source, etc.), mistakes, besides the lack of a standard, i.e., the maps are heterogeneous. For the creation of cartographic standardization of this research, some images were used, such as LANDSAT-5/TM and LANDSAT-7/ETM+ images, available on the Division of Imaging website DGI of INPE. After receiving, the bands 5(R), 4(G) and 3(B) were used and a colorful combination was carried out in ArcGIS software. The images were georeferenced and the thematic ones were drawn in AutoCAD software. The final art was done in CorelDRAW software, resulting in two charters-image at medium scales (1:40.000 and 1:1000.000). After the development of the first two proposed of standardization for flood emergencial image charter, we realized it was necessary to make one more work for a small scale (1:500,000). For this, we used MODIS images, of the satellite TERRA, available in the Quick Message System of MODIS (MODIS Rapid Response System) webpage, with colorful combination of bands 7(R), 2(G) and 4(B). With this image, the same procedures were performed from LANDSAT images. As a result, this research has a proposal of cartographic standardization, which aims to the homogeneity charters-image areas that present the phenomenon of flood, in an attempt to standardize the thematic, facilitating studies. / Apesar de existirem normas cartográficas que norteiam a elaboração de mapas em geral, não há uma padronização para mapas temáticos, fazendo com que eles sejam feitos, grande parte, de acordo com a liberdade do profissional elaborador. Assim, o objetivo deste trabalho é propor um padrão cartográfico para carta-imagem emergencial de inundação. Para tanto, foram analisados cerca de 60 cartas-imagem e mapas de inundação, realizados por diversas instituições, programas e projetos, tais como o Disasters Charter, UNOSAT e mapeamentos retirados de teses, dissertações, trabalhos de graduação, entre outros. Também foi elaborado um questionário, aplicado em diversos profissionais que trabalham com mapas de diferentes modos, com temáticas distintas, obtendo 33 questionários respondidos. Os pontos utilizados na análise dos mapas e os do questionário são bastante semelhantes, o que permitiu uma relação entre eles. Percebeu-se que as cartas-imagem e os mapas de inundação se diferenciam em muitas questões, sendo observadas carências de elementos como título, escala, datum, projeção, norte, fonte, etc., erros, além da não existência de um padrão, ou seja, os trabalhos são heterogêneos. Para a elaboração da proposta do presente trabalho foram utilizadas imagens LANDSAT-5/TM e LANDSAT-7/ETM+, disponíveis no site da Divisão de Geração de Imagens DGI do INPE. Após o recebimento, foram utilizadas as bandas 5(R), 4(G) e 3(B) e foi realizada uma composição colorida no software ArcGIS. As imagens foram georreferenciadas e as temáticas foram extraídas no software AutoCAD. A arte final foi realizada no software CorelDRAW, tendo como resultado duas cartas-imagem em escalas médias (1:40.000 e 1:1.000.000). Após a elaboração das duas primeiras propostas para carta-imagem emergencial de inundação, julgou-se necessária a confecção de mais um trabalho em escala menor (1:500.000). Para tanto, utilizou-se imagens MODIS, do satélite TERRA, disponíveis na página do Sistema de Resposta Rápida do MODIS (MODIS Rapid Response System), com composição colorida das bandas 7(R), 2(G) e 4(B). Com essa imagem foram realizados os mesmos procedimentos das imagens LANDSAT. Como resultado, esta pesquisa propôs um padrão cartográfico para carta-imagem emergencial de inundação, que procura homogeneizar os mapeamentos de áreas que apresentam o fenômeno de inundação, na intenção de sugerir uma padronização para a temática e com isto facilitar os estudos.

Submitted by Claudinei Pracidelli (cpracide@ipen.br) on 2015-03-03T14:44:05Z No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-03T14:44:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Dissertação (Mestrado em Tecnologia Nuclear) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnológicas do Estado de São Paulo, São Paulo

Harrisburg, Chernobyl and Fukushima have changed the world’s view of the probability that a nuclear disaster can happen. But they are also a reminder of how necessary a working crises management is in the times a disaster appears. This paper is a systematic review about accidents and disasters, and the communication in this time. The purpose of the study is to analyse the use of communication in these cases, but also how organizations and media are communicating, and which dimensions they use. The conclusion of this study shows that risk and crisis communication needs to improve in all cases. The best communication was with Sweden’s fire in Västmanland 2014 and the Tsunami 2004. Hurricanes and nuclear power needs better strategic in the whole process.

Submitted by Irene Nascimento (irene.kessia@ufpe.br) on 2016-07-15T16:34:56Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Dissertação.pdf: 1712072 bytes, checksum: 3d39945997a8f7b46f9a4c77600b922a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-15T16:34:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) Dissertação.pdf: 1712072 bytes, checksum: 3d39945997a8f7b46f9a4c77600b922a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-03-11 / FACEPE / Os grandes impactos causados pela ocorrência dos eventos naturais em plantas industriais em todo o mundo tem feito com que este campo de estudo ganhe destaque nos últimos anos dado as perdas financeiras, humanas e ambientais que este tipo de evento pode acarretar. Os eventos provenientes de desastres naturais que proporcionam desastres tecnológicos são conhecidos como desastres/eventos Natech. Os eventos Natech apesar da baixa probabilidade de ocorrência apresentam grandes impactos e um nível de complexidade superior ao encontrado no gerenciamento de desastres naturais ou tecnológicos. Devido à necessidade de gerir vários tipos de riscos e dada a natureza finita dos recursos é necessário priorizar os riscos mais elevados e para auxiliar nessa análise dos riscos, é fundamental a utilização de ferramentas e metodologias que proporcionarão uma melhor compreensão dos desastres/eventos Natech. Neste sentido, é realizada uma revisão sistemática da literatura (Systematic Literature Review – SLR) sobre eventos Natech, levando em conta especificamente, trabalhos publicados em periódicos científicos. Vários tipos de classificações dos dados analisados são apresentados neste trabalho com o intuito de prover informação mais detalhada acerca de aspectos considerados no estudo. Esta pesquisa identificou a frequência de publicações dos eventos Natech, as revistas científicas e instituições que mais contribuíram sobre tema e os tipos de desastres naturais e setores da indústria mais abordados nos trabalhos avaliados, como também os tipos de ferramentas e metodologias utilizadas no gerenciamento destes riscos provendo informações relevantes para análises futuras e contribuindo para elucidação acerca do tema para a sociedade. / The great impacts caused by the occurrence of natural events in industrial plants around the world have made this field of study to gain prominence in recent years given the financial, human and environmental losses that this type of event can bring. The events arising from natural disasters that provide technological disasters are known as Natech disaster/events. The Natech events in spite of low probability of occurrence have large impacts and a higher level of complexity to that found in the management of natural and technological disasters. Due to the need to manage several types of risk and given the finite nature of resources is necessary to prioritize the higher risks and to assist in the analysis of the risks, it is essential to use tools and methodologies that will provide a better understanding of Natech disasters/events. In this sense, a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) is performed on Natech events, taking into account specifically, papers published in scientific journals. Several types of classifications of the analyzed data is presented this work in order to provide more detailed information about aspects considered in the study. This research has identified the frequency of publications of Natech events, scientific magazines and institutions that contributed to the theme and the types of natural disasters and industry sectors most discussed in this work, as well as the types of tools and methodologies used in the management of these risk giving relevant information for further analysis and contributing to elucidate the subject for society.

Submitted by Claudinei Pracidelli (cpracide@ipen.br) on 2015-03-03T14:44:05Z No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-03T14:44:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Dissertação (Mestrado em Tecnologia Nuclear) / IPEN/D / Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnológicas do Estado de São Paulo, São Paulo

A análise da morfologia é uma importante ferramenta para avaliação das características internas do sistema bacia hidrográfica. Os atributos morfológicos podem demonstrar um padrão de comportamento dos processos ocorridos em seu interior, sobretudo os processos hidrogeomorfológicos, como enxurradas e corridas de detritos. As corridas de detritos possuem características específicas, em sua maioria relacionadas aos canais de drenagem, portanto, sua análise morfológica é fundamental para o entendimento do processo. São importantes os estudos que visam compreender de forma mais aprofundada os condicionantes relacionados à ocorrência de corridas de detritos, devido tanto à magnitude quanto e, principalmente, ao seu poder destrutivo, e, sobretudo, devido a recorrência do processo. Conforme o exposto, esta pesquisa teve como objetivo central avaliar a suscetibilidade de bacias hidrográficas a partir da análise de parâmetros morfológicos e sua relação com a magnitude das corridas de detritos ocorridas em 1967 no município de Caraguatatuba/SP, visando a elaboração de um índice de potencial de magnitude e suscetibilidade com base nos resultados. Para alcançar tal objetivo, as seguintes etapas metodológicas foram definidas: i) seleção de bacias hidrográficas com evidência de ocorrência de corridas de detritos; ii) mapeamento dos parâmetros morfológicos; iii) caracterização morfológica dos depósitos e definição da magnitude das corridas de detritos de 1967; e iv) elaboração de índice de potencial de magnitude e suscetibilidade à ocorrência de corridas de detritos. Os resultados mostraram a influência dos parâmetros morfológicos na magnitude das corridas de detritos, com destaque para perfil longitudinal, hierarquia de drenagem e área da bacia acima de 25°. As bacias classificadas com nível de magnitude maior obtiveram os valores mais críticos com relação a estes parâmetros. A metodologia utilizada para determinação da magnitude se mostrou eficiente, ficando as consequências potenciais condizentes com a realidade. Com o estabelecimento da relação entre os valores críticos dos parâmetros e a maior magnitude, foi possível a elaboração de um índice de potencial de magnitude e suscetibilidade com base nos parâmetros morfológicos. Esta pesquisa contribui para os estudos referentes às corridas de detritos, sob uma perspectiva geomorfológica, agregando mais informações a respeito do processo e colaborando para o melhor entendimento de sua dinâmica na Serra do Mar. / The morphological analysis is an important tool in the evaluation of the inner characteristics of the hydrographic basin system. Its attributes demonstrate a pattern of behave of the processes occurred in the basin, especially hydrogeomorphic processes, such as flood and debris flow. Debris flow have specific characteristics, mostly related to the drainage channels, being primordial the study of the characteristics of the hydrographic basin. Studies which aim to better understand the conditioning factors related to the occurrence of debris flow are important due to the magnitude but also the recorrence of the process. As explained before, the main goal of this research was to evaluate susceptibility of hydrographic basins through morphological parameters and its relation with the magnitude of the debris flows occurred in Caraguatatuba, 1967, aiming to elaborate an index of potential of magnitude and susceptibility based in the results. To achieve this goal, the following methodological steps were defined: (i) selection of hydrographic basins with evidence of occurrence of debris flow; (ii) morphological parameters mapping; (iii) morphological characterization of the deposits and definition of the magnitude of debris flow; and (iv) elaboration of an index of potential of magnitude and susceptibility to de occurrence of debris flow. The results showed the influence of the morphological parameters in the magnitude of debris flows, highlighting the parameters longitudinal profile, drainage hierarchy and area above 25°. The basins classified with higher magnitude obtained the most critical values relation to those parameters. The methodology used to determine the magnitude proved to be efficient, with the potential consequences consistent with the reality. With the establishment of the relation between the critical values of the morphological parameters and the basins with higher magnitude, it was possible to elaborate an index of potential of magnitude and susceptibility. This research contributes to the studies related to debris flow from a geomorphological approach, adding more informations about the process and collaborating to better understand the debris flow dynamics in the Serra do Mar.

Two of the main challenges facing communities and governments in developing countries are the reduction of risks of hydro-meteorological hazards and adaptation to climate change. As climate variability and change impacts are becoming more visible in the form of disasters, and are negatively affecting climate sensitive livelihoods and eroding communities' ability to fully recover, leading to increased vulnerability to subsequent climate risks. The unpredictability of current weather systems, therefore, makes it very difficult for poor governments and households to deal with adverse impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the fragmented approach to DRR and CCA with regards to practice, policy and organisational frameworks for dealing with climate risks is resulting in coordination challenges for the government departments. This study aimed to explore how local households and communities perceive and are experiencing and coping with climate change and drought, and what that means for integrating hydro-meteorological disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The study was carried out in Chirumhanzu district and the methods used for data collection included: 217 household surveys; six focus group discussions; participatory learning actions methods; key informant's interviews and document review. The majority of households owned low value material assets and had low levels of livelihood capitals and this exposed them to the impacts of climate variability and successive droughts. This low adaptive capacity largely affected their ability to engage effective drought risk reduction and adaptation strategies for their livelihood activities in small-scale farming and livestock rearing. Vulnerability to climate risks was exacerbated by seasonal weather forecasts, which were deemed by some households to be unreliable, inaccurate and not easily understood, while others used of indigenous knowledge. Successive droughts affected households' access to food and cash income for other household demands. Other non-climatic factors that contributed to adverse drought impacts at the household level were an emphasis on reactive humanitarian aid approach and the poor economy in Zimbabwe. Additionally, the policy framework for dealing with climate change and drought hazards is fragmented and weak; and is housed in different government departments making it difficult to coordinate and implement. To improve climate risk management, there is need for the government to appreciate that drought risk reduction and climate change adaptation are all about reducing vulnerability. Understanding this, might assist in improving government focus on addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability and mainstreaming DRR and CCA into development processes through addressing specific and generic adaptive capacities. The thesis argues that as long as rural households are involved in climate sensitive livelihood activities and not getting meaningful intervention to diversity and/or better intensify their livelihood activities, they will continue to be vulnerable to successive climate risks. This fragmented approach to dealing with climate risks, is not yielding any successful results with regards to building resilience, risk reduction or adaptation of rural households.