No description available.

The increase and changes in the demand for emergency care require pro-active responses from the designers and implementers of the emergency care system. The role of Emergency Care Practitioner (ECP) was introduced in England to improve the delivery of emergency care in the community. The role was evaluated using cost-benefit approach and compared with other existing emergency care roles. An analysis of the cognitive elements (situation awareness (SA) and naturalistic decision making (NDM)) of the ECP job was proposed considering the mental efforts involved. While the cost-benefit approach can justify further spending on developing the role, a cognitive approach can provide the evidence in ensuring the role is developed to fulfil its purpose. A series of studies were carried out to describe SA and NDM amongst ECPs in an ambulance service in England. A study examined decision-making process using Critical Decision Method interviews which revealed the main processes in making decision and how information was used to develop SA. Based on the findings, the subsequent studies focus on the non-clinical factors that influence SA and decision making. Data from a scoping study were used to develop a socio-technical systems framework based on existing models and frameworks. The framework was then used to guide further exploration of SA and NDM. Emergency calls that were assigned to ECPs over a period of 8 months were analysed. The analysis revealed system-related influences on the deployment of ECPs. Interviews with the ECPs enabled the identification of influences on their decision-making with respect to patient care. Goal-directed task analysis was used to identify the decision points and information requirements of the ECPs. The findings and the framework were then evaluated via a set of studies based on an ethnographic approach. Participant observations with 13 ECPs were carried out. Field notes provided further insight into the characteristics of jobs assigned to the ECPs. It was possible to map the actual information used by the ECP to their information needs. The sources of the information were classified according to system levels. A questionnaire based on factors influencing decision-making was tested with actual cases. It was found that the items in the questionnaire could reliably measure factors that influence decision-making. Overall, the studies identify factors that have direct and indirect influences on the ECP job. A coherent model for the whole emergency care systems can be developed to build safety into the care delivery process. Further development of the ECP role need to consider the support for cognitive tasks in light of the findings reported in this thesis.

Les systèmes multi-agents (SMA) permettent à ce jour de simuler des phénomènes impliquant des entités en interactions. Ces entités peuvent représenter des experts et doivent alors utilisent des processus cognitifs de haut niveau (perception, prise de décision, raisonnement, stockage de l'information en mémoire). Depuis longtemps, la psychologie cognitive étudie ces processus cognitifs et a proposé des modèles conceptuels de la cognition humaine. L'approche « Naturalistic Decision Making » (prise de décision naturelle) et plus particulièrement RPD (Recognition-Primed-Decision), modélise la prise de décisions efficaces par des individus dans des situations complexes en fonction de leur expérience et du contexte. L'objectif de cette thèse est d'intégrer au sein d'un SMA, via l'approche Agent-Groupe-Rôle, le modèle RPD pour simuler les comportements d'experts. L'expérience des individus est stockée à l'aide d'une base de patrons. Un patron associe à une situation prototypique une décision générique. Le modèle de prise de décision qui en découle : DBP (Décision à Base de Patrons) est décomposé en quatre phases. La première ; la perception de la situation courante est basée sur des sous-ensembles flous. Ils sont employés pour transformer des données quantitatives en données qualitatives. Une phase d'appariement de la situation courante à une ou plusieurs situations prototypiques est alors lancée. Puis, le patron optimal, en fonction de critères spécifiques au profil de chaque agent, est retenu. Finalement, la décision est traduite en une action. DBP est validé par une extension du simulateur TRANS (Tractable Role Agent prototype for concurrent Navigation Systems) afin de reproduire le comportement d'experts maritimes. L'extension créée ; CogTRANS (cognitive TRANS) porte plus particulièrement sur les décisions des chefs de quart à bord de ferries et de cargos. CogTRANS permet de simuler les évitements de collisions de façon réaliste. Il offre ainsi de bonnes perspectives pour une meilleure compréhension des risques maritimes et l'amélioration d'outils pédagogiques pour l'apprentissage de la navigation.

We sought to examine the potential differences between different types of risky decisions. While some decisions are easily represented as choices between future alternatives, other decisions may be better represented as the management of a personally owned situation. Schneider (2003) created the risk management task, which manifested these situated improvement decisions, and identified a unique pattern of risk preferences when compared to the standard gambling paradigm. To determine what cognitive processes might be differentially activated for each type of decisions so as to yield these risk preference differences, we incrementally manipulated the gambling paradigm to parse potentially influential elements of situational context from both risky choice and risk management. The elements of context found to be influential were (a) making an improvement of your situation rather than a choice within your situation, (b) integrating information into a more compact display, and (c) limiting the visual salience of consequence information. The implications of these results as they relate to current formal models of decision making and subsequent investigations of decision context are addressed. Future directions using a similar appreciation of individual perceptual and cognitive processes when studying decision making are also discussed.

Submitted by Fabio Sobreira Campos da Costa (fabio.sobreira@ufpe.br) on 2017-04-19T14:49:21Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) TeseDoutorado_JoseAdsonOliveiraGuedesCunha_CInUFPE_vFinal.pdf: 2184943 bytes, checksum: 928987ce07e4113b3596a20086cbc4c7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-04-19T14:49:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 1232 bytes, checksum: 66e71c371cc565284e70f40736c94386 (MD5) TeseDoutorado_JoseAdsonOliveiraGuedesCunha_CInUFPE_vFinal.pdf: 2184943 bytes, checksum: 928987ce07e4113b3596a20086cbc4c7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-09-15 / Background: In software project management, the decision-making process is a complex set of tasks mainly based on human relations, individual knowledge, and cultural background. The factors that affect the decisions of Software Project Managers (SPMs), as well as their potential consequences, require attention because project delays and failures might be related to a series of poor decisions. Aims: To understand how SPMs make decisions based on how they interpret their experiences in the workplace. Further, to identify antecedents, moderators and consequences of those decisions to increase the effectiveness of project management. Method: Firstly, an exploratory study based on semi-structured interviews was conducted with SPMs from a large Brazilian governmental organization and from a small Portuguese private organization to shed light on the causal factors of SPMs’ cognitive biases and how they deal with them, including techniques and tools they used to minimize the cognitive biases’ adverse effects. The initial findings suggested that we needed a more grounded understanding of the mechanisms of decision-making. Thus, a broader research protocol based on semi-structured interviews was carried out with SPMs within a large Brazilian governmental organization and a large Brazilian private organization. We also conducted interviews with software engineers and PMO managers to triangulate the data, which was analyzed using techniques from grounded theory. Data from observations, document analysis and selected studies from a systematic literature review were also used. Results: We found that decision-making in software project management is based on knowledge sharing in which the SPM acts as a facilitator. This phenomenon is influenced by individual factors, such as experience, knowledge, leadership style, and skills, and by situational factors such as the autonomy of the SPM, task complexity and team members' technical competence. Conclusions: Due to the uncertainty and dynamism inherent to software projects, the SPMs focus on making, monitoring and adjusting decisions in na argument-driven way. Also, the involvement of the team members in decision-making aims to minimize the SPM's decision regret and cognitive biases as well as to maximize the team member's commitment. / Contexto: No gerenciamento de projetos de software, o processo de tomada de decisão refere-se a um conjunto complexo de tarefas baseadas, principalmente, nas relações humanas e no conhecimento e background de cada indivíduo. Os fatores que afetam as decisões dos gerentes de projeto de software (GPs), bem como as suas consequências potenciais necessitam de atenção uma vez que atrasos e falhas de projeto estão relacionados a uma série de más decisões. Objetivos: Entender como os GPs tomam decisões com base em como eles interpretam suas experiências no ambiente de trabalho. Além disso, pretende-se identificar os antecedentes, moderadores e consequências dessas decisões para aumentar a eficácia no gerenciamento de projetos. Método: Primeiramente foi realizado um estudo exploratório com base em entrevistas semi-estruturadas com GPs de uma organização governamental brasileira de grande porte e de uma organização privada portuguesa de pequeno porte para analisar os fatores causais dos vieses cognitivos dos GPs e como estes lidam com eles, incluindo técnicas e as ferramentas utilizadas para minimizar os efeitos adversos dos vieses cognitivos. Os resultados iniciais sugeriram uma compreensão mais fundamentada dos mecanismos de tomada de decisão. Dessa forma, um protocolo mais amplo de pesquisa baseado em entrevistas semi-estruturadas foi realizado com GPs de uma organização governamental e de uma organização privada, ambas brasileiras e de grande porte. Foram realizadas entrevistas com engenheiros de software e gerentes de escritório de projetos para triangular os dados, que foram analisados usando técnicas de teoria fundamentada. Também foram utilizados dados de observações, análise de documentos e estudos selecionados a partir de uma revisão sistemática da literatura. Resultados: Verificou-se que a tomada de decisão no gerenciamento de projetos de software é baseada no compartilhamento de conhecimento em que o gerente de projetos de software atua como um facilitador. Este fenômeno é influenciado por fatores individuais, como experiência, conhecimento, estilo de liderança, e habilidades, e por fatores situacionais, tais como a autonomia, complexidade da tarefa, e competência técnica dos membros de equipe. Conclusões: Devido à incerteza e dinamismo inerente aos projetos de software, os GPs concentram-se em agir, monitorar e ajustar as decisões com base em argumentos. Além disso, o envolvimento dos membros da equipe na tomada de decisão visa minimizar o arrependimento de decisões e influência de vieses cognitivos por parte dos GPs, bem como maximizar o comprometimento dos membros da equipe.

This thesis aims to expand our knowledge about Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) in strategic decision-making. A case study of the Cuban missile crisis has been conducted. The purpose of the case study is to enhance knowledge about how NDM can be performed on a strategic level. The thesis aims to answer the questions how the crisis can be explained from a NDM-perspective, which decisions is likely to be made in a NDM-manner. In what way decision-makers can be said to be experts or experienced decision-makers and what we can learn from the Cuban missile crisis in respect to NDM. No earlier research has been identified that has performed this kind of case study. The main theory in this thesis is NDM and mainly the part of NDM that is called Recognition Primed Decision (RPD) by Klein. As a complement the so called STEP-procedure (Story, Test, Evaluate, Plan) by Cohen is used as an indicator alongside RPD. The result of the case study shows that many decisions during the Cuban missile crisis may have been performed in a naturalistic manner. This shows that decisions on the strategic level may be performed in a naturalistic manner with good results and indicates the importance of utilizing more than rational decision making in order to achieve fast and satisfying results. It is the author beliefs that decision making will be much improved by applying more NDM.

Den här studien handlar om hur svenska officerare fattar sina beslut i dynamiska situationer, det vill säga situationer som bland annat präglas av stress, oklarheter och tidspress. Även frågor kring vad som bygger förmågan till att fatta dylika beslut och hur till exempel gruppen och ledarskapet påverkar beslutsfattandet studeras. Det tycks finnas motsättningar gällande frågan om beslut fattas på ett rationellt och analytiskt sätt eller om det sker på ett intuitivt vis. Syftet med uppsatsen är att studera hur svenska officerare fattar beslut i dynamiska situationer och vad det kan innebära för deras utbildning och utveckling. Frågan studeras genom sammanlagt femton intervjuer med erfarna svenska officerare och officerskadetter och i studien har en tematisk analys med en induktiv ansats använts. Studiens resultat tyder på att det militära beslutsfattandet i dynamiska situationer kan förklaras med två teman: a) individuella och b) strukturella faktorer. Individuella faktorer handlar bland annat om intuitivt beslutsfattande, ledarskap och gruppdynamik medan strukturella faktorer avser erfarenhet och utbildning. Resultaten bekräftar teorier om att det intuitiva beslutsfattandet förutsätter att officeren är erfaren och har en hög nivå av expertis. En expertis och erfarenhet som genom år av träning har skapat en minnesbank som medger igenkänning eller mönsterförståelse i många militära dynamiska situationer. Med resultaten i åtanke diskuteras slutligen huruvida den inslagna vägen för att forma morgondagens officerare och högre officerare är den mest produktiva.

Militär beslutsfattning präglas av: tidspress, oklarheter, stress och en föränderlig miljö. Trots den inneboende dynamiken i strid visar tidigare forskning att militära beslutsfattare tenderar att använda sig av analytiskt beslutsfattande.  Syftet med studien har varit att undersöka om svensk militär beslutsfattning influeras av analytiskt beslutsfattande trots den inneboende komplexiteten i strid. Vidare syftar studien till att beskriva hur två motstående ideal, analytiskt- och intuitivt beslutsfattande påverkar beslutsfattning på lägre taktisk nivå. Särskilt tre aspekter av beslutsfattning studeras: tempo i beslutsfattning, dynamisk beslutsfattning och planeringsmetod som stöd för beslutsfattning. Studien har genomförts som en fallstudie vid en manöverbataljon under Brigadstridsövning 2022. Studiens resultat tyder på att tempo i beslutsfattning skapas i huvudsak av intuitivt beslutsfattande. Dock indikerar studien att det analytiska beslutsfattandet får negativ inverkan på det dynamiska beslutsfattandet genom försök till att förutse framtiden. Vidare indikeras att planeringsmetoden som används påverkas av båda beslutfattningsperspektiven. Erfarenhet framkommer som centralt för den intuitiva beslutsfattningen.

No description available.

Decision making study has been the multi-disciplinary research involving operations researchers, management scientists, statisticians, mathematical psychologists and economists as well as others. This study aims to investigate the theory and methodology of decision making research and apply them to different contexts in real cases. The study has reviewed the literature of Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach, Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM) movement, Social Judgment Theory (SJT), and Adaptive Toolbox (AT) program. On the basis of these literatures, two methods, Evidence-based Trade-Off (EBTO) and Judgment Analysis with Heuristic Modelling (JA-HM), have been proposed and developed to accomplish decision making problems under different conditions. In the EBTO method, we propose a novel framework to aid people s decision making under uncertainty and imprecise goal. Under the framework, the imprecise goal is objectively modelled through an analytical structure, and is independent of the task requirement; the task requirement is specified by the trade-off strategy among criteria of the analytical structure through an importance weighting process, and is subject to the requirement change of a particular decision making task; the evidence available, that could contribute to the evaluation of general performance of the decision alternatives, are formulated with belief structures which are capable of capturing various format of uncertainties that arise from the absence of data, incomplete information and subjective judgments. The EBTO method was further applied in a case study of Soldier system decision making. The application has demonstrated that EBTO, as a tool, is able to provide a holistic analysis regarding the requirements of Soldier missions, the physical conditions of Soldiers, and the capability of their equipment and weapon systems, which is critical in domain. By drawing the cross-disciplinary literature from NDM and AT, the JA-HM extended the traditional Judgment Analysis (JA) method, through a number of novel methodological procedures, to account for the unique features of decision making tasks under extreme time pressure and dynamic shifting situations. These novel methodological procedures include, the notion of decision point to deconstruct the dynamic shifting situations in a way that decision problem could be identified and formulated; the classification of routine and non-routine problems, and associated data alignment process to enable meaningful decision data analysis across different decision makers (DMs); the notion of composite cue to account for the DMs iterative process of information perception and comprehension in dynamic task environment; the application of computational models of heuristics to account for the time constraints and process dynamics of DMs decision making process; and the application of cross-validation process to enable the methodological principle of competitive testing of decision models. The JA-HM was further applied in a case study of fire emergency decision making. The application has been the first behavioural test of the validity of the computational models of heuristics, in predicting the DMs decision making during fire emergency response. It has also been the first behavioural test of the validity of the non-compensatory heuristics in predicting the DMs decisions on ranking task. The findings identified extend the literature of AT and NDM, and have implications for the fire emergency decision making.