The debt-for democracy hypothesis is that undemocratic governments were largely responsible for not only the accumulation but also poor management of externally sourced capital resources. External borrowing had therefore failed to lead to growth of the economies of debtor countries under undemocratic political leadership. Despite this explanation of the debt problem conventional empirical analyses of the debt-growth relationship did not include political institutional variables. This study investigates the relationship between democratization and debt-led growth, using Nigeria, a typical debtor country whose politics was dominated by 'undemocratic ' governance, as a case study. Two broad research questions are investigated namely, whether available data support a negative or positive contribution of debt to the growth of the Nigeria economy during the period 1970-2000; and ifso was there any link between the levels of democratization in Nigeria and debt-led growth. Using a census of major political events in Nigeria around four dimensions of democratization, four primary indices of democratization and one composite index were constructed for the period. Using the Taylor (1983) marginal conditions to gauge the contribution of external debt to the growth of the Nigerian economy, the study found that external debt is capable of playing a double edged sword on the performance of the economy. Positive contributions coincided with the periods when Nigeria's oil dominated foreign exchange revenues were robust, and/ or when debt management strategies were better articulated and vice versa. The analyses of the link between democratization and debt-led growth using both correlation and regression techniques, yielded different results in two definitional contexts of debt-led growth. When defined purely in terms of the Taylor marginal conditions for a positive contribution of debt to the economy of a borrowing nation, the results support the pessimist view that democratization impeded growth. On the contrary, when debt-led growth was defined in a broader sense to incorporate variables such as domestic savings and investment, foreign direct investments, public and private consumption and debt burden, there was strong evidence that debt-led growth performed beller at higher levels of democratization than other wise. The result using the narrow definition was found to be a direct consequence of the overriding influence of export performance in the Taylor conditions. With Nigeria's exports almost entirely dominated by extractive industry the result derived using the narrow definition confirmed the theoretical links between natural resource endowment and regime type on the one hand, and external capital and the nature of the host country 's industry on the other. In the first resource dependence allowed the political leadership to be more detached and less accountable to the electorate since they did not need to levy taxes. Secondly foreign investors concerned with security of their sunk investments in the extractive oil induslly in particular favoured continuity of powerfol regimes with less democratic content. In both findings one thing was common: democratization was associated more with those factors whose decreases affect growth positively than with those whose increases improve growth. The conclusion from this is that the impact of democratization is stronger with negative than with positive growth factors. In other words, while democratization may be supportive of growth its greater impact appears to be in limiting the factors that themselves limit growth. To benefit from the favourable impact of democratisation on debt-led growth therefore the study suggests that improvements in the democratisation process in Nigeria is needed It identifies political education as central to this improvement. A model is developed to show how improvements in the political institutional framework may trickle down, through an enabling environment that is capable of engendering growth-enhancing domestic and international responses to lead in the direction of debt-led growth.

This study examined the effects and expectations of external economic dependence on foreign investment policy outputs with particular reference to the Nigerian experience between 1954 and 1980. Three basic kinds of external economic dependence were studied: foreign investment, the penetration of the Nigerian economy by foreign capital through the agency of the multinational corporations (MNCs); foreign trade, a measure of the Nigerian economy's participation in the world market; and foreign aid (loans and grants), a measure of Nigeria's reliance on financial assistance from governments and international financial inst itutions. For the most part, the level of Nigeria's economic dependence was very high. However, economic dependency is not translated into changes in foreign investment policy in favor of the foreign investors in Nigeria as is predicted by the dependency paradigm. The Nigerian case casts doubt on the dependency paradigm as a framework for fully explaining factors that may determine foreign direct investment policy changes that occur in a less developed Third World country. In other words, the dependency paradigm has a limited explanatory power; there is a factor independent of the economic factor operating out of the control of global capitalism (the center of the center in alliance with the center of the periphery); and that factor is the political process in Nigeria. The web of the Nigerian political process involves the various aspects of its internal functioning such as the manner in which needs, interests and demands are conveyed from the individuals and groups in the country to those performing state duties. Thus, Nigerian policy makers were more influenced by those elements than pure economic considerations treated in isolation.

This thesis attempts to analyze the military government's role in solving the country's agricultural problems. This analysis is essential because it was during the military's stay in power that Nigeria's potential as a selfsufficient and food exporting nation declined. Materials collected to analyze the above problems reveal that the military government's lack of adequate personnel to supervise and implement decisions taken on agriculture, unplanned schemes, and unresearched projects were partly responsible for the government's inability to solve Nigeria's agricultural problems. While it may be necessary to blame the military government for not being able to completely solve the country's numerous agricultural problems, the presence of global political and economic decisions seriously hampered measures taken by the military government.

Thesis (MA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Instability in foreign political and social systems, changing power structures in international relations, and growing demands by host countries for a greater control over the operations of multinational enterprises (MNEs) have all led to the necessity of an improved way in which to determine foreign investment opportunities. Not surprisingly therefore, political risk assessment has become one of the fastest growing fields of study. Being concerned with the identification, analysis, management, and reduction of socio-political risks for foreign investors. The focus of this study is that of political risk analysis and the way in which it impacts on investor perception and consequently determines levels of foreign direct investment received by a particular country. Numerous definitions for the term "political risk" exist. Consequently, no specific definition is regarded as being completely correct since consensus still needs to be reached. One of the definitions used within this study is that political risk analysis is the analysis of the possibility that factors caused or influenced by governmental political decisions or other unforeseen events in a country will affect business climates in such a way that investors will lose money or not make as much profit as they expected when the initial decision to invest was made. These factors can be of internal (from inside the host country) or external origin, and can pose macro or micro risks. Foreign Direct Investment in brief is an investment involving a long-term relationship and reflecting a lasting interest and control of a resident entity in one economy in an enterprise resident in an economy other than that of the foreign direct investor. This study is a comparative between South Africa and Nigeria. South Africa and Nigeria share many similarities, they are both resource based, African countries. They are both fairly recent democracies, although some may contest the status of Nigeria as being a democracy. They are also both heterogeneous states, both consisting of various ethnic groups. Nigeria offers investors a low-cost labour pool, abundant natural resources, and a large domestic market. However, Nigeria suffers from an inadequate and poorly maintained infrastructure, confusing and inconsistent regulations, endemic corruption, and a lack of confidence in the rule of law. Despite all of this, Nigeria alone accounts for a quarter of FDI flows to Africa. In comparison, South Africa's FDI potential has not been fully exploited. This study will discuss the possible reasons why this is the case. The labour market in both countries and the challenges they face are discussed in depth within this study. Due to the fact that aside from investment, the economic growth within a country is dependent on a variety of factors, the backbone of which is the labour market. In determining levels of risk within both South Africa and Nigeria, this study made use of a political risk model. Although the intention has been to be as accurate and as thorough as possible, it should be noted that as yet, no generalised systematic method of conducting political risk assessment exists. Results, although extensively substantiated, remains the interpretation of the researcher and as such remains open to debate. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Onstabiliteit in buitelandse politieke en sosiale stelsels, veranderende mag strukture in internasionale betrekkinge, en die groeiende behoeftes van gasheer lande om meer beheer uit te oefen oor die funksioneering van buitelandse maatskappye het alles gelei na die noodsaaklikheid van 'n beter manier om buitelandse investering te bepaal. Dus is dit nie verbasend dat politieke risiko analise deesdae een van die vinnigste ontwikkelende onderwerpe is wat bestudeer word nie. Politieke risiko analise is belangrik vir die identifikasie, analise, bestuur en vermindering van sosio-politieke risiko vir buitelandse investering. Hierdie studie fokus op die impak wat politieke risiko' analise het met betrekking tot belegger waarneming en hoe dit dan ook moontlik die bedrag van buitelandse investering wat 'n land ontvang, kan bepaal. Daar is verskeie definisies wat die term "politieke risiko" beskryf en gevolglik moet konsensus nog bereik word oor 'n "korrekte" een. Een van die definisies wat in hierdie studie gebruik word is dat politieke risiko die analise is van die moontlikheid dat sekere faktore wat veroorsaak is of wat beïnvloed is deur die regering se politieke besluite, asook ander onvoorspelbare gebeurtenise in 'n land wat die investerings klimaat so kan beïnvloed dat die buitelandse beleggers moontlik geld kan verloor of miskien nie die verwagte winste behaal wat hulle aanvanklik gereken het, sou behaal nie. Hierdie faktore kan of intern (binne die gasheer land) of ekstern van aard wees en kan dus makro of mikro risiko behels. Direkte buitelandse investering in 'n land is 'n belegging wat In lang termyn verhouding insluit en dit reflekteer ook 'n blywende belangstelling en beheer van 'n buitelandse maatskappy in 'n gasheer land in. Hierdie studie is 'n vergelykende studie tussen Suid-Afrika en Nigerië. Suid-Afrika en Nigerië deel baie ooreenkomste. Beide lande is ryk aan natuurlike bronne en beide is nog "jong" demokratiese lande. Sommige mense stem nie saam dat Nigerië wel aan al die vereistes van 'n demokrasie voldoen nie. Suid-Afrika en Nigerië is ook heterogene state wat uit verskeie etniese groepe bestaan. Nigerië bied vir die buitelandse belegger billike arbeid, oorvloedige natuurlike bronne, asook In groot binnelandse mark. Ten spyte hiervan, moet dit ook in ag geneem word dat Nigerië onder onvoldoende en In swak instandhouding van infrastruktuur, wispelturige regulasies, korrupsie en ook In swak regsisteem ly. Ten spyte van al hierdie faktore, ontvang Nigerië In kwart van alle buitelandse investering in Afrika. Suid-Afrika se buitelandse investerings potensiaal in vergelyking met ander lande moet nog ontwikkel word. Hierdie studie sal die moontlike redes vir Suid Afrika se oneksploiteerbare buitelandse investerings potensiaal bespreek. Die arbeidsmark en die uitdagings wat gestel word het In groot invloed op buitelandse investering. Hierdie studie het ten doelom beide lande se arbeidsmark te bespreek en te vergelyk met betrekking tot buitelandse investering. Om die moontlike risiko in altwee lande te bepaal, maak hierdie studie gebruik van In politieke risiko analise model. Die navorser het gepoog om so deeglik en akkuraat as moontlik te wees. Dit moet ook in ag geneem word dat daar nog geen veralgemeende metode van politieke risiko analise ontwikkel is nie.