The understanding of the mechanism determining exchange rates is still an unsolved puzzle in the field of international economics. In the search for the underlying causes of the failure of existing approaches to explain a large proportion of short term exchange rate movements, our review of methodology literature revealed that a significant number of scholars consider the methodological approach employed by mainstream economics as a main cause for the disappointing result of established approaches. In particular, the excessive use of formal modelling and quantitative data as well as the use of oversimplified assumptions has been criticized. In response to this critique we chose to use a more pluralistic approach in our research methodology by employing both qualitative as well as quantitative data analysis. For the analysis of qualitative data, we employed an approach based on grounded theory principles, where we analyze Reuters Foreign exchange market reports. The findings of the qualitative data analysis show that, based on market practitioners commentary, there are two predominant variables affecting exchange rates. First, expectations on interest rate changes appears to be a major variable affecting currency value. An upward revision of interest rate expectations usually suggests an increase in the value of the currency concerned and vice versa. Second major variable affecting exchange rates appear to be global equity returns. In contrast to interest rates, which is a country specific variable, global equity returns is a global variable affecting currencies based on their relative interest rate levels and safe haven attributes. In particular, it is suggested that higher yielding currencies’ value is positive related to global equity returns, while low/lower yielding and safe haven currencies’ value is negatively related to global equity returns. The empirical test we performed to explore the relationship between exchange rates and global equity returns suggest that they are indeed linked. The sign of the relationship depends on the characteristics of the currencies examined. When equity prices increase, currencies with higher interest rates tend to appreciate, whereas currencies with lower interest rates tend to depreciate and vice versa. In addition, the strength of the relationship depends to some extent on relative interest differentials. A stronger relationship is observed when interest differentials are relatively large, while the explanatory power of the model is reduced when interest rate differentials are relatively narrow. Our study presents evidence on the role of stock markets in exchange rate determination which is considerable different to the focus of current theory. Whereas current research focuses on stock market’s relative stock market returns in the respective countries, the findings of this thesis suggests that global stock market returns affect exchange rate movements based on differentiated characteristics of different currencies. Another important contribution of this thesis is that we illustrate the complexity of interactions and links among different variables. For example, whereas interest changes were seen as positively correlated to the home currency value, the relationship was seen as being reversed because of the possible effect of higher interest rates on the subprime crisis. Another example of complex links is the relationship between exchange rates and equity markets. For example, whereas the USD effective exchange rate was not related equity returns during the initial stages of the subprime crises, the strength of the relationship increased significantly when the crisis escalated and the demand for USD increased due to safe haven flows.

[pt] O objetivo desta dissertação é investigar a existência de retornos anormais no contrato de dólar futuro de primeiro vencimento nos momentos próximos à realização dos leilões de câmbio pelo Banco Central do Brasil. Em respondendo positivamente à primeira indagação, avaliamos a persistência de tais retornos que, em última instância, descreverá o quão rápido novas informações são difundidas e incorporadas aos preços. Para isso, aplicamos os arcabouços de estudos de eventos e microestrutura do mercado de câmbio aos dados de alta frequência obtidos junto à BMEFBovespa e ao BC. A disponibilidade dos dados dos negócios permite que se utilize da variável de fluxo de ordem e, assim, se corrijam potenciais problemas relacionados a viés de variável omitida, não considerados na literatura sobre intervenções dos bancos centrais. Encontram-se retornos anormais estatisticamente positivos nos minutos que seguem à abertura de um leilão e negativos nos minutos seguintes ao fechamento do mesmo. Adicionalmente, as evidências mostram que o horário do leilão pouco afeta os resultados. / [en] The goal of this dissertation is to investigate the existence of abnormal returns in U.S. dollar futures contract maturing in the first moments near to the realization of exchange auctions by the Central Bank of Brazil. On the occasion of a positive response to the first question, we evaluated the persistence of these returns that ultimately describe how fast new information is disseminated and incorporated into prices. For this, we apply the frameworks of Event Studies and Microstructure of the exchange market to high-frequency data obtained from the BMANDFBovespa and the CB. The availability of transactions data allows the use of variable order flow and thus to correct potential problems related to omitted variable bias, not considered in the literature on Central Bank intervention. We found statistically positive abnormal returns in the minutes following the opening of an auction and negative in the minutes following the closure of the same event. Additionally, the evidence points to the direction that, among the times chosen by the monetary authority in the database, there is no statistically significant difference with respect to the effects of such events on the movements in the exchange rate on intraday basis.

abstract: This dissertation examines cultural understandings and lived realities of entrepreneurship across South Africa’s economic landscape, comparing the experiences of Cape Town’s Black entrepreneurs in under-resourced townships to those of White entrepreneurs in the wealthy, high finance business district. Based on 13 months of participant observation and interviews with 60 entrepreneurs, I find major differences between these groups of entrepreneurs, which I explain in three independent analyses that together form this dissertation. The first analysis examines the entrepreneurial motivations of Black entrepreneurs in Khayelitsha, Cape Town’s largest township. This analysis gives insight into expressed cultural values of entrepreneurship beyond a priori neoliberal analytical frameworks. The second analysis compares the material resources that Black entrepreneurs in Khayelitsha and White entrepreneurs in downtown Cape Town require for their businesses, and the mechanisms through which they secure these resources. This analysis demonstrates how historical structures of economic inequality affect entrepreneurial strategies. The third analysis assesses the non-material obstacles and challenges that both Black entrepreneurs in Khayelitsha and White entrepreneurs in wealthy areas of downtown Cape Town face in initiating their business ventures. This analysis highlights the importance of cultural capital to entrepreneurship and explains how non-material obstacles differ for entrepreneurs in different positions of societal power. Taken together, my findings contribute to two long-established lines of anthropological scholarship on entrepreneurship: (1) the moral values and understandings of entrepreneurship, and (2) the strategies and practices of entrepreneurship. I demonstrate the need to expand anthropological understandings of entrepreneurship to better theorize diverse economies, localized understandings and values of entrepreneurship, and the relationship of entrepreneurship to notions of economic justice. Yet, through comparative analysis I also demonstrate that diverse and localized values of entrepreneurship must be considered within the context of societal power structures; such context allows scholars to assess if and how diverse entrepreneurial values have the potential to make broad-scale social and/or cultural change. As such, I argue for the importance of putting these two streams of anthropological research into conversation with one another in order to gain a more holistic understanding of the relationship between the cultural meanings and the practices of entrepreneurship. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Anthropology 2018

Obsidian is one of the most common materials preserved in the archaeological record of Mesoamerica. Because of this and obsidian's unique chemical properties, it has become one of the most common means by which to explain ancient exchange and production. Northern Belize has largely been absent from discussions of Postclassic Mesoamerican economies. The limited amount of obsidian research that has been done is unable to draw comparisons to the region's primary site during this period, Santa Rita Corozal. This thesis remedies this by exploring the importation, production, and distribution of obsidian at the Postclassic Maya primary center of Santa Rita Corozal, Belize. Through the application of the lithic technology approach and the use of pXRF (portable X-ray fluorescence) spectrometry, it is possible to establish the sources of obsidian being exploited, the stage of reduction of obsidian imports, the major obsidian industry, and obsidian distribution for Santa Rita Corozal's Postclassic Period.

This diploma thesis is looking into investments to stocks portfolio by methods of psychologica analysis. Structure of the thesis is consisted of three parts. In the first part there are intruduced necessary theoretical prerequisities for understanding of stock market. Second and third part is focused on practical application and major stock market events from the past. Thesis thus describes and analyses the possibilities of psychological analysis usage while deciding about investments into selected portfolio of securities at capital markets.

Background: Business relationships between buyers and suppliers are of great importance to maintain a profitable and beneficial business environment. Every organization’s relationship characteristics vary and are influenced by various factors, including environmental conditions and competitors in the market. Also, Brexit is an event that brings uncertainty to these relationships. It is unknown how Brexit will affect the business environment and it is, therefore, necessary to investigate Brexit’s effect on buyer-supplier relationships. The research of Brexit could contribute with valuable insightsfor both companies and policymakers since it will demonstrate the way Brexit has influenced buyer-supplier relationships and companies' responses to the event.  Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationships between buyers and suppliers in the EU and the British market under the effect of Brexit. The supplier-buyer relationship will be focused on EU buyers and British suppliers, which will illustrate the adaptations and changes companies in the EU are facing regarding their relationships. Further on, the relevance of this paper will be highlighted through the long-debated case of Brexit. Method: The research is a qualitative study that follows a case study frame of logic. Data has been collected through semi-structured interviews with a sample of three individuals with a purchasing background. The empirical findings were analysed through a logic of thematic analysis using the Bensaou (1999) buyer-supplier relationships portfolio model as an analysis tool. Conclusion:  The analyses have found that there is no change experienced in the current buyer-supplier relationship characteristics due to Brexit. The participants expect to have some influence on their cost in the future which then may affect their product category. Otherwise, the EU buyers have not changed their outlook on their UK suppliers because of Brexit and for the time being continue their business as usual.

[pt] O mercado cambial doméstico, bem como o de outros países são objeto de estudo de vários e diversificados trabalhos. Neste estudo, utiliza-se a regressão quantílica e algumas de suas novas formulações para analisar a relação dos retornos cambiais com os retornos no mercado de bolsa, a volatilidade cambial e os efeitos das intervenções governamentais no nível e na volatilidade da taxa de câmbio. Encontrou-se que o mercado de câmbio é mais sensível a variações na bolsa,na presença de maiores desvalorizações cambiais. O método CAViaR, que aplica funções autorregressivas à regressão quantílica para estimar a volatilidade, mostrou-se eficaz quando comparado a outros métodos. Por fim, as reações do mercado cambial às intervenções governamentais foram analisadas com o ferramental da regressão quantílica com variáveis instrumentais, o que permite tratar o problema de endogeneidade existente. Não há conhecimento por parte da autora de aplicação desse método para o caso das intervenções cambiais. Os resultados abrem uma nova forma de análise para dados que não possuem o comportamento completamente aleatório e que se mostraram, ainda, com diferentes impactos (coeficientes angulares) ao longo da distribuição da taxa de câmbio, seja seu retorno ou sua volatilidade. / [en] Not only the Brazilian Exchange Market, but also those of other countries are studied in a great number of works. In this study, we use the regression quantile and some of its new formulas to analyze the relationship of currency returns with the returns in the stock market, exchange rate volatility and the effects of government intervention in the level and volatility of the exchange rate. It was found that the currency market is more sensitive to variations in the bag in the presence of major devaluations. Caviar method, that applies autoregressive functions in quantile regression to estimate volatility, was effective when compared to other methods. Finally, the reactions of the forex market to government interventions were analyzed using quantile regression with instrumental variables, which can deal with the existing endogeneity problem. The findings open up a new way of analysis to data that do not have the completely random behavior and also showed different impacts (slope coefficients) over the distribution of the exchange rate, either its return or volatility.

The submitted diploma thesis describes particular types of European energetic exchanges, focuses in depth on principles market in Czech Republic and studies the price development on spot and futures markets. The main idea of this work is to focus on renewable energy sources (RES) and their influence on energetic markets. At first, operational and reliability properties of RES are explained and then their development support is analyzed. Last chapters focus on how the power grid is impacted by RES that are hardly predictable source with local production characteristic. There are also outlined problems originating from irregular production that are linked to a surplus of electric energy, but also on energy shortage caused by bad weather. These problems influence international commerce and reduce the capacity of cross-border profiles.