In order to improve our understanding of present and future coastal environmental change, we look into the past using sediment that accumulates in coastal environments. We have done this for two disparate systems: a back-barrier lagoon in southwestern Japan, and freshwater tidal marshes along the Hudson River, New York, USA. In Japan, we used a 2,500-year sediment record to investigate coastal flood risk from tsunamis and typhoons. This is a critical area of study to better understand the spatial and temporal variability of these hazards in Japan. In the Hudson River we looked at modern (since 1800) deposition of sediment in anthropogenically constructed embayments that have formed tidal wetlands in the last few centuries. A better understanding of the factors that have attributed to these successful tidal marsh systems in the past can help inform future management decisions in the face of future sea level rise. Studying the history of coastal systems using the sediment record is a valuable tool for assessing hazard risk and habitat loss in the present and future.

Magister Artium - MA / The objective of the study was to find out whether the decentralisation of responsibulities for social economics development facilitated the management of disaster risk during the 2007 floods in Mozambique. the specific aims of the study were to : analyse and discuss national policies for decentralisation and their significance for DRM. Investigate which responsibilities, human and financial resources were available to local governments for the planning, implemantations and monitoring of DRM activities. Identify mechanisms institutions and activities for DRM and find out whether they provided to be effective. Explore how concerned communities participated in DRM activitiesto reduce their vulnerability to disaster risk.

The Jamaican hurricane history goes back a long time. The country has an average ratio of getting hit or brushed every 3.84 years and it is estimated to be hit directly every 9.47 years. This underscores the relevance of this paper since it seeks to investigate the construction, social structure and policy response of Jamaica. The impressions of the author combined with the interviews and literature study resulted in the conclusion of the constructions and social structure not being the main issue, but the policy response.

Adam Emmer: Potential hazardousness of selected moraine-dammed lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru ABSTRACT: This work is devided into the two parts. Firs part reviews contemporary methods of assessment of potential hazardousness for moraine-dammed lakes (eight qualitative methods and three quantitative methods). Second part has two main aims: 1) Assessment of potential hazardousness of seven selected moraine-dammed lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, and 2) Analysis of suitability of these methods for use in this region. Required input data for potential hazardousness assessment were gained from analysis of remotely sensed photographs, research papers of INRENA/ANA institute (Huaráz), and from fieldwork realized in 2012. Ten methods of potential hazardousness assessment were applied on seven studied moraine-dammed lakes. There are no significant differences in results obtained in each method. These results showed, that potentially most hazardous lake is that of Arhueycocha, followed by Palcacocha. On the other hand potentially less hazardous lake is that of Rajucolta. Based on analysis of regional specific of causes and mechanisms of glacial lake outburst floods from moraine-dammed lakes in Cordillera Blanca, five groups of characteristics which reflect these regional specifics were merged: A) possibility of...

Master of Arts / Department of Geography / Richard Marston / Slope failures play a significant role as a mass movement hazard in the deglaciated mountain canyons in Grand Teton National Park. The park’s geologic and glacial histories are unique in comparison to other areas in the Rocky Mountain range. However, few detailed maps and statistical analyses of slope failures as hazards exist for park officials and visitors. The purpose of this study is to produce a comprehensive map of slope failures in five of the most accessible and commonly used canyons of the park: Cascade, Death, Garnet, Granite, and Paintbrush. This project combined fieldwork, LiDAR imagery, and GIS mapping to document five main categories of slope failures—rock slides, rock/debris flows, rock falls, and snow avalanches, as well as complex slope failures involving a combination of these categories. Summary statistics, maps, and histograms of average slope gradient, aspect, and curvature conditions as well as precipitation conditions at the “source” area of slope failures were generated for individual canyons as well as the entire study area. Snow avalanche source areas where debris flows were not readily present occurred most commonly on north and northeast facing slopes, slopes averaging a 40% gradient, and slightly convex slopes. Debris flow source areas occurred most commonly on south and southeast facing slopes, slopes with an average 42% gradient, and on slightly convex slopes. Rock fall source areas were most common on north facing slopes, slopes of an average 55% gradient, and a mostly flat curvature. Rock slide source points were most common on north facing slopes, slopes of an average 54% gradient, and flat to slightly concave slopes. Rock Mass Strength (RMS) values were sampled at a rate of every 0.5 kilometers on the hiking trail of each canyon to provide an introductory insight into rock stability conditions in each canyon. Slope failures not only impact the physical landscape of canyons in Grand Teton National Park but can affect human structures as well. Physical attributes and locations of slope failures were compared to locations of camping zones and hiking trails in the Park to determine areas of common human usage that were most susceptible to past movement events.

Le permafrost de montagne est menacé par le réchauffement atmosphérique, une évolution qui s’accompagne de l’augmentation des phénomènes tels que les chutes de pierres, la formation de thermokarsts et l’accélération des glaciers rocheux. La déstabilisation des glaciers rocheux, qui compromet l’intégrité structurelle de ces formes, semble liée au réchauffement atmosphérique, et a suscité un intérêt grandissant au cours des dernières années. Ce phénomène, qui peut être provoqué par le réchauffement du pergélisol ou des contraintes mécaniques externes, est caractérisé par une accélération anormale des glaciers rocheux affectés, et par l’apparition des signes géomorphologiques telles que des fissures et des crevasses à sa surface. Bien que ce processus peut être transitoire, il peut déterminer une phase de crise amenant le glacier rocheux à un effondrement.Cet étude se préfixe de fournir une première évaluation des phénomènes de déstabilisation de glacier rocheux à l’échelle des Alpes françaises. Dans un premier temps, l’empreinte spatiale du pergélisol a été évaluée afin de produire une carte de répartition du pergélisol régionale, un outil nécessaire pour estimer l’état du permafrost dans les glaciers rocheux. La deuxième étape a consisté à identifier les formes déstabilisées grâce à une observation ponctuelle des images aériennes afin d’identifier les caractéristiques typiquement observables sur les glaciers rocheux déstabilisés. Il est alors possible de comprendre les conditions topoclimatiques typiques dans lesquelles se produit ce phénomène et de repérer les formes susceptibles de subir ce processus. Enfin, les efforts ont été concentrés sur le glacier rocheux du Lou, déstabilisé, qui, du fait d’un détachement de couche active, a conduit à une lave torrentielle en Août 2015. L’analyse a visé à mieux définir les circonstances de cet événement, en mettant l’accent sur les facteurs de préconditionnement, de préparation et de déclenchement et sur leur interaction avec le processus de déstabilisation.Les résultats ont fourni des informations riches sur la zone périglaciaire de la région. La modélisation de la répartition du pergélisol a mis en évidence les étendues de la zone périglaciaire dans la région qu’on peut trouver sur les pentes de débris au-dessus de 2300 - 2500 m.a.s.l. en fonction de l’exposition solaire et des caractéristiques régionales des précipitations. L’observation des photographies aériennes a permis d’observer 46 formes en cours de déstabilisation, soit 12% des glaciers rocheux actifs des Alpes françaises. Il apparaît que la déstabilisation est plus susceptible de se produire dans certaines conditions topoclimatiques locales spécifiques, en particulier dans des pentes exposées au nord, raides et convexes situées aux marges inférieures de la zone de pergélisol. Un grand nombre de glaciers rocheux ne présentant actuellement aucune déstabilisation sont donc susceptibles d’être affectés par une déstabilisation future. L’analyse du glacier rocheux du Lou a révélé que la déstabilisation est liée à une avancée rapide du front vers un ravin torrentiel. Ce processus semble avoir accru la prédisposition des matériaux détritiques du front à être mobilisés par du ruissellement, des précipitations relativement modérées ayant suffi à déclencher l’événement.Malgré les incertitudes liées aux méthodes impliquées, les résultats suggèrent que les conditions favorables à la déstabilisation sont fréquentes, et que cette dernière peut augmenter le niveau de risque si le site est connecté à des infrastructures humaines. Des efforts supplémentaires doivent donc être entrepris, afin d’améliorer la compréhension de ces processus, notamment par la surveillance des sites ainsi que par une évaluation locale complète des cascades de processus liés à ce phénomène. / As occurring to several geosystems on our planet, mountain permafrost is threatened by climate change as prolonged warming may compromise the geotechnical properties of the frozen ground. As result, increasing occurrence of rockfall activity, thermokarst formation and rock glacier acceleration was observed in the past decades. Rock glacier destabilization, a process that compromises the structural integrity of these landforms, seems to be linked to atmospheric warming, gaining interest in the past years. The destabilization, which may be triggered by warming permafrost or mechanical stress, is characterized by an anomalous acceleration of the landform and the occurrence of specific features such as cracks and crevasses on its surface. Although the occurrence of these processes is mostly transitory, determining a textit{crisis} phase of the landform, in exceptional cases it may lead the rock glacier to structural collapse.This PhD thesis provided an assessment on the occurrence and related processes of rock glacier destabilization in the French Alps. At first, the spatial occurrence of debris permafrost was assessed in order to provide the permafrost distribution map of the French Alps, a tool that was necessary to evaluate permafrost conditions at rock glaciers sites. The second step consisted in an identification of destabilized rock glaciers in the region, which was done by multiple orthoimages interpretation aimed to identify features typically observable on destabilized rock glacier. Once identified the destabilized rock glaciers it was possible to analyse the typical topographical settings in which destabilization occurs and to to spot those landforms that are susceptible to experience this phenomenon. After these efforts at the regional scale, the focus was shifted towards local scale investigations at the Lou rock glacier, a partially destabilized landform that, due to frontal failure, in August 2015 triggered a debris flow that caused significant damages to buildings. The analysis aimed to better define the circumstances of this event, focusing on preconditioning, preparatory and triggering factors and their interaction with the destabilization process.The results provided interesting insights on the issue of destabilizing rock glaciers in the region. Permafrost distribution modeling demonstrated the large extents of the periglacial zone in the region as it can be found in debris slopes above 2300 - 2900 m.a.s.l. depending upon solar exposure and regional precipitation characteristics. Rock glacier destabilization was observed on 46 landforms, i.e. the 12% of the active rock glaciers. Destabilization was found to be more likely to occur in specific local topo-climatic conditions, consisting of north facing, steep and convex slopes at the lower margins of the permafrost zone. A large number of rock glaciers currently not showing destabilization was found to be located in these conditions and suggested to be susceptible to future destabilization. As demonstrated by the Lou rock glacier analysis, destabilization was found to be a relevant phenomena in the context of permafrost hazards. At this site, rock glacier destabilization was linked to a rapid frontal advance towards a torrential gully. This process seemed to have increased the site predisposition to frontal failure as a mild rainstorm was sufficient to trigger the event.Despite methodological uncertainties, results indicated that destabilization occurrence is widespread and it may rise the hazard level of a site connected to human infrastructures. Therefore, it is suggested that, where it has been modelled and where stakes may be at risk downslope, rock glacier destabilization deserves to be more carefully investigated. In this sense further efforts should focus towards a better understanding of the destabilization process by site monitoring as well as towards a comprehensive hazard assessment linked to this phenomenon.

No description available.

The Indian Ocean tsunami on 26 December 2004 made many New Zealanders more aware of the devastating affects that a tsunami can have on coastal communities, and highlighted the need for people living in the coastal zone to be prepared for natural hazard events. The east coast of New Zealand is at high risk from both local and distantly generated tsunami, and Poverty Bay and Hawke Bay have been identified among the most at risk areas from tsunamis in the country. Three surveys were conducted between January and November 2006 to assess community understanding of, and preparedness for tsunami risk in the eastern North Island, New Zealand. These surveys were a camping ground visitor survey; a tourism sector preparedness survey; and the 2006 National Coastal Survey. Findings of all three surveys show that the general public does not appear to have sufficient knowledge of tsunami risk in their area. Also, there does not appear to be adequate information on tsunamis available to the public. Understanding of official tsunami warnings was high amongst residents surveyed in the 2006 National Coastal Survey. However, it was low amongst visitors surveyed in the camping grounds, with the majority of camping ground survey respondents indicating that they do not know what makes up the New Zealand public notification system. It is encouraging to find that overall the public are aware of the correct actions to take in the event of a tsunami warning being issued. Staff in hotels/motels in the Napier area were not well prepared for managing natural hazard events, with the majority of respondents having no training for dealing with emergencies, and none of those who had received training had received training for tsunami hazards. It is recommended that steps be taken to better educate and prepare the public and tourism managers in eastern North Island communities. This will require not only public education but a range of activities that engage, empower and motivate at-risk communities to respond effectively and appropriately to tsunami warnings.

Reinsurance is one of the most important tools to be used by insurance companies, for managing risks. This is an effective way / however, there are situations where reinsurance is insufficient, such as the occurrence of a natural hazard. When a natural hazard occurs, many insured experience loss at the same time, which drains the reinsurance market capacity. If future market capacity could be forecasted, then it would be easier for companies to decide when to include cat bonds or any other additional securities in their portfolio. In order to establish a model for market capacity, its relationship with other market parameters and the association among parameters are examined. In this study, these relationships are analyzed and used to establish an algorithm for predicting the next years reinsurance capacity. Moreover, last 10-year data for market capacity is used to establish and AR(1) model, in order to create a comparison with the algorithm. A case study of cat bonds is done, which uses the pricing load calculation of the Lane model and aims to ease the decision-making process by comparing the loads of cat bond and reinsurance pricing.

Anecdotal evidence in disaster studies suggests that multifamily housing takes longer to recover than single family homes, but almost no studies have provided quantitative evidence to clarify this “multifamily home lag” phenomenon. This research examines the recovery of single family, duplex, and apartment complex housing in south Miami-Dade County, Florida, after 1992 Hurricane Andrew to determine if there is indeed a "multifamily home lag." This research also provides a better understanding of the factors influencing the recovery trajectories of these three housing types. The findings of this research indicate that duplexes and apartment buildings have slower recovery trajectories than single family dwellings. In addition, rental housing, housing that sustained higher levels of damage, and single family dwellings and duplexes located in predominately non-Hispanic Black neighborhoods show significantly slower recovery trajectories. The analyses specific to apartment buildings also finds that apartment buildings with fewer than 10 units have significantly slower recovery trend than apartment buildings with more than 50 units.