Accurate forecasting and up-to-date warning is very important for the coastal people to protect them from the devastation of cyclone. Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and their concern organizations have important role to provide proper and accurate cyclone forecasting and warning message to the people. The coastal zone of the country is the most precarious place to natural disaster due to its geographical location, frequent formation of cyclone in the Bay, poor infrastructure and insecure socio-economic conditions of the people.  Accurate and timely warning, good infrastructure such as roads, transportations, cyclone shelters, cyclone preparedness training centers can reduce  human vulnerability to cyclone in the coastal area of the country. Due to very high population growth rate in the coastal zone, new settlements are being built in the areas which were under agricultural land, forest or bare before. To study the people’s perceptions on cyclone forecasting, warning and management system in Bangladesh, two questionnaire surveys have been done, one with meteorologists of BMD and the other with the people living in the coastal zone. As land use change has great impact on human vulnerability to disaster so, a brief study on land-use change has also been done under the current research.   Keywords: Cyclone, forecasting technique, questionnaire survey, Natural hazards and Land- use change.

Les risques naturels majeurs constituent une menace plus ou moins récurrente pour la plupart des populations de la planète. Les catastrophes naturelles sont à la fois sources et révélatrices d’inégalités sociales et environnementales, dans le monde, mais aussi sur le territoire de la République française. Les Antilles françaises sont très fréquemment, et très lourdement frappées par les aléas naturels. La réponse en matière de gestion des crises, et, en amont, en matière de prévention, ne nous semble pas à la hauteur des défis, et des besoins des populations. C’est la raison pour laquelle nous nous interrogeons, à travers la présente thèse, sur la place de la solidarité et de l’égalité, dans le régime juridique des risques naturels majeurs. C’est une préoccupation doctrinale majeure, inscrite dans la constitution. La recherche du lien entre droit des risques naturels majeurs et justice sociale et environnementale est l’objet de la présente étude, s’agissant de la réponse juridique à la préoccupation des populations et catégories défavorisées, qui s’avèrent a priori les plus atteintes par les catastrophes naturelles. Les limites des textes, l’insuffisance des moyens, ainsi que les pratiques locales, facteurs d’aggravation des vulnérabilités, le laxisme des pouvoirs publics nationaux et territoriaux, l’absence de culture de risque et l’esprit « kokagneur » des populations (avec des différences de comportement entre la Guadeloupe et la Martinique), toutes ces considérations rendent illusoire la détermination proclamée des pouvoirs publics de résoudre les problèmes de risques naturels majeurs. Des voies d’un renforcement de la solidarité sont proposées. Cette contribution à la recherche sur les risques ambitionne d’apporter aux acteurs, une vision transversale de la problématique des risques naturels, par l’analyse du régime juridique confronté à une exigence de justice sociale et environnementale. Les Antilles françaises servent de support à cette étude. / Major natural hazards are more or less recurring threat for most people in the world. Natural disasters are both sources and revealing social and environmental inequalities in the world, but also in the French Republic. The French West Indies are very frequently and strongly hit by natural hazards. The answer in terms of crisis management, and beforehand, in terms of prevention, doesn’t seem to be up to the population’s challenges and needs. This is why we wonder, in this thesis, about the place of solidarity and equality in the legal system of major natural hazards. This is a major doctrinal concern in the constitution. The research of the relationship between major natural hazards law and environmental and social justice is the subject of this study, concerning the legal answer to the concerns of the underprivileged people and categories, which prove to be a priori the most struck by natural disasters. The limits of the legislation, inadequate resources and local practices, vulnerabilities worsening factor, the laxity of the national and territorial public authorities, the lack of risk culture and the "kokagneur" spirit of the populations (with behavior differences between Guadeloupe and Martinique), all these considerations make unreal the government’s proclaimed determination to solve the major natural hazards issues. Ways to strengthen solidarity are proposed. This contribution to risks research aims to bring to the players an interdisciplinary view of natural hazards issues, through the analysis of the legal system confronted with the requirement of social and environmental justice. The French West Indies are used as research support.

Orientador: Geraldo de Freitas Maciel / Abstract: This thesis was motivated by the need to better understand time-dependent features related to mudflow evolution on natural sloped channels. Basically, the research is focused on events that are confined in channels formed due to the topography. The rain, source of the liquid discharge, generates the runoff flow which is responsible for wetting the soil surface, promoting reduction of soil cohesiveness and erosion of small particles such as clay and sand. From this point, the sediment transport can increase as small water flows merge and form greater streams. The scenario keeps its evolution until it reaches high concentration of particles in the fluid mixture. In the first part, to study the non-permanent feature of sediment transport, an open-channel experiment was designed for simulating runoff flow over a mobile bed. A measurement system was designed and constructed to instantaneously inspect the solid discharge of particles and the flow friction at the bed. This apparatus is further used to explore the influence of free-surface waves on the sediment transport. Hydraulic properties of flows are qualitatively and quantitatively studied and data are used to correlate characteristics of flow and sediment transport. A set of experimental runs is presented and explored. Analysis of results shows that for fixed flow conditions, waves induce an overall smaller quantity of transported sediment. In a second part, the dynamics of high concentrated flows is addressed and this the... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Resumo: Dentro da temática de riscos naturais, mais precisamente no contexto das corridas de lama, esta tese surge da necessidade que existe na literatura em melhor se conhecer as características temporais destes eventos. A chuva, fonte da vazão liquida, conduz aos escoamentos superficiais, responsáveis pela redução da coesão do material sedimentar do solo (areia e argila) e seu consequente transporte. Em locais de topografia íngreme, de montante a jusante, a vazão sólida do escoamento principal pode, eventualmente, evoluir devido às contribuições laterais de pequenos escoamentos, alterando não só as propriedades reológicas do fluido e dinâmicas do escoamento, como se manter até que o transporte sólido atinja elevada concentração na composição do fluido. Na primeira parte desta tese, um experimento de superfície livre foi projetado para reproduzir escoamentos superficiais sobre um fundo móvel, com o objetivo de estudar propriedades não-permanentes do transporte de sedimentos. Um sistema de medição foi projetado e construído com o intuito de medir quase instantaneamente a vazão sólida e suas correlações com as propriedades hidráulicas do escoamento. Este aparato é também utilizado para observar a influência de instabilidades de superfície livre sobre o transporte. Um conjunto de resultados é apresentado e analisado e mostra que a presença de ondas pode, em média, reduzir a quantidade total de sedimentos transportada. Na segunda parte desta tese, a dinâmica de escoamentos com eleva... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Doutor

<p>Predmet ovog istraživanja su direktne materijalne posledice realizacije prirodnih nepogoda (direktna materijalna šteta) i procena štete na teritoriji AP Vojvodine. U prvom delu istraživanja analizirana je prostorna distribucija prirodnih nepogoda karakterističnih za područje AP Vojvodine sa ciljem utvrđivanja izloženosti populacije rizicima od prirodnih nepogoda. U drugom delu istraživanja, primenom kvantitativnih metoda koje uključuju parametarske i neparametarske statističke metode i regresiono modeliranje utvrđen je optimalni analitički izraz procene štete nastale usled realizacije rizika od oluje kao prirodne nepogode za koju je ustanovljena povećana izloženost populacije AP Vojvodine.</p> / <p>The subject of this research is the direct material consequences of the realization of natural disasters (direct material damage) and the assessment of damage in the territory of Vojvodina. In the first part of the research, the spatial distribution of natural disasters characteristic for the region of Vojvodina was analyzed in order to determine the population&#39;s exposure to natural hazards. In the second part of the research, the optimal analytical expression of damage estimation was determined by applying quantitative methods including parametric and non-parametric statistical methods and regression modeling. The optimal analytical expression of damage estimation has been identified for the risk of a storm as a natural disaster which has created increased exposure of the population of Vojvodina.</p>

Modern engineering structures should ensure an economic design, construction and operation of structures in compliance with the required safety for persons and the environment. In order to achieve this aim, all contingencies and associated consequences that may possibly occur throughout the life cycle of the considered structure have to be taken into account. Today, the development is often based on decision theory, methods of structural reliability and the modeling of consequences. Failure consequences are one of the significant issues that determine optimal structural reliability. In particular, consequences associated with the failure of structures are of interest, as they may lead to significant indirect consequences, also called follow-up consequences. However, apart from determining safety levels based on failure consequences, it is also crucially important to have effective models for stress forces and maintenance planning ... (aus dem Vorwort)

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Vid inträffandet av naturolyckor och katastrofer påverkas människor i olika omfattning, inte bara beroende på deras bostads läge utan även utifrån deras sociala förhållanden och förutsättningar. I denna studie genomförs en riskanalys samt utvecklas en metod för beräkning av ett områdes sociala sårbarhet genom ett index. Studiens geografiska avgränsning är en sträcka av Klarälven i Värmland och baseras på data framställt av Skogsstyrelsen, Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap (MSB), Lantmäteriet och Statistiska centralbyrån (SCB).   I studien beräknades ett socialt sårbarhetsindex genom att kombinera flera lager av SCB:s statistiska data i ett geodatalager med kvadratiska polygoner. Det sociala sårbarhetsindexet kombinerades sedan med resultatet från en flerfaroanalys (multi-hazard analysis) med flera översvämningsscenarion samt områden känsliga för jordskred och ras. Flerfaroanalysen utfördes genom en sammanställning av MSB:s kartering av potentiella översvämningsscenarion och Skogsstyrelsens kartering av områden som kan drabbas av ras eller jordskred. Det sociala sårbarhetsindexet och flerfaroanalysen karterades och överlagrades för att identifiera särskilt sårbara områden.   Med hjälp av det sociala sårbarhetsindexet identifieras en högre social sårbarhet i mer tätbebyggda områden. Indexet påvisar även en högre social sårbarhet i den södra halvan av studieområdet. I flerfaroanalysen ses naturolyckorna variera i omfattning över studieområdet. I den norra delen är risken för jordskred och ras större än i den södra delen som nästan enbart drabbas av översvämningar. Resultaten från riskanalysen visar en “medel-risk” längs en längre sträcka av Klarälven och ökad risk i tätbebyggda områden. För förbättring av det sociala sårbarhetsindexet behövs mer detaljerade data över mindre områden för att öka indexets tillförlitlighet och användningsområden. / When natural phenomena and disasters occur, people are affected to varying degrees, not only depending on the location of their homes, but also on the basis of their social background. In this study, a multi-hazard risk analysis and a method for estimating an area’s social vulnerability through an index were developed. The study was carried out along River Klarälven in Värmland and was based on data produced by the Swedish forest agency, The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), The Swedish Mapping, Cadastral and Land Registration Authority and Statistics Sweden (SCB).   The study presents a social vulnerability index by combining several layers of SCB's statistical data, in a geodata layer with square polygons. The social vulnerability index was combined with a multi-hazard analysis considering several flood scenarios and landslide susceptibility. The multi-hazard analysis was performed through a compilation of MSB's mapping of potential flood scenarios and the Swedish forest agency’s mapping of areas that may be affected by landslides. The social vulnerability index and the results from the multi-hazard analysis were mapped and combined in order to identify areas with substantial risk.    The social vulnerability index indicates a higher social vulnerability in more densely populated areas. The index also shows a slightly higher social vulnerability in the southern half of the study area. The results from the multi-hazard analysis, the spatial distribution of natural hazards varied. The northern part of the study area has a greater susceptibility to landslides than the southern part, which is almost exclusively are induced by floods and extreme flows. The result of the risk analysis shows a “medium risk” along the largest studied part of the River Klarälven and a slightly increased risk in densely populated areas. For future improvements in the development of the social vulnerability index, more data is needed with a higher spatial resolution to increase the index's reliability and areas of use.

A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Johannesburg, February 2015. / Due to its geographical location, poor economic situation and geological features that are characterised by mostly mountainous terrain, Lesotho is vulnerable to hazardous events associated with climate, such as drought, floods, heavy snow, and severe frost. This research explores factors underlying spatial vulnerability of places to natural hazards in south-western Lesotho. Prior vulnerability assessments in Lesotho have investigated vulnerability in terms of identifying populations that are most food insecure and vulnerable to hunger. By broadening the scope of vulnerability to include biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics, the study emphasises the concept of place vulnerability as a foundation for understanding Lesotho’s vulnerability to natural hazards. Spatial orientation of vulnerability within a geographical area provides an easy way for planners and decision makers to identify areas that may require additional resources in order to prepare for disasters. To date, no quantitatively based vulnerability assessment has been undertaken in Lesotho, so this study is one of the first to assess place vulnerability to natural hazards in Lesotho using GIS and it emphasise the role of geography of a place.

Les chutes de blocs constituent un aléa naturel majeur dans les Alpes françaises en raison de leur probabilité d'occurrence spatiale et temporelle très élevée. Les forêts peuvent constituer une solution naturelle et efficace pour atténuer ce phénomène tout en protégeant les populations et leurs infrastructures. Cependant, ce service écosystémique peut être perturbé par d'autres aléas naturels comme les feux de forêts, susceptibles d'être plus fréquents et intenses dans le contexte actuel et futur de changements climatiques.Cette thèse propose ainsi d'évaluer les effets des incendies sur la capacité de protection des forêts contre les chutes de blocs dans les Alpes françaises.Une méthodologie pour évaluer la capacité de protection d'une forêt contre les chutes de blocs est d'abord développée et consiste à utiliser des simulations de propagation de chutes de blocs réalisées sur 3886 placettes forestières des Alpes françaises pour calculer trois indicateurs quantitatifs évaluant la réduction de la fréquence (BARI), de l'intensité (MIRI) et la réduction globale (ORPI) de l'aléa chutes de blocs dues à la présence d'une forêt. Ces indicateurs sont utilisés pour identifier les variables forestières prépondérantes pour évaluer la capacité de protection : la longueur boisée sur le versant, la surface terrière et le diamètre moyen. Les peuplements présentant une distribution hétérogène des diamètres et composés de plusieurs essences offrent généralement une meilleure protection que les peuplements monospécifiques et réguliers, soulignant ainsi l'influence de la diversité forestière. Cette thèse montre ainsi que les taillis présentent les capacités de protection les plus élevées, suivis par les futaies feuillues et les futaies mixtes ; les peuplements résineux venant en dernier.Les évolutions spatiales et temporelles des conditions climatiques favorables aux incendies, étudiées sur la période 1959-2015, révèlent un contraste majeur entre les Alpes du Sud qui ont connu une forte augmentation (en intensité, fréquence, durée et saisonnalité) surtout à haute altitude, et les Alpes du Nord, où une légère hausse est observée à basse altitude, mais aucune tendance significative n'est observée à haute altitude. Ces résultats sont ensuite utilisés pour définir trois types de feux (d'hiver, d'été moyen et d'été très sec) pour lesquels la mortalité post-incendie est étudiée à l'échelle de l'arbre et du peuplement forestier. Ces analyses montrent que seuls les feux d'été sont susceptibles d'affecter significativement les peuplements, en particulier à basse altitude où les peuplements feuillus (notamment les taillis) dominent.L’effet des incendies sur la capacité de protection des forêts est évalué en comparant les simulations de propagation de chutes de blocs sans feu aux simulations après chaque type de feu pour lesquelles les arbres avec une forte probabilité de mortalité post-feu ne sont pas pris en compte. Les valeurs de ORPI pour chaque placette forestière et chaque type de feu sont ainsi calculées et comparées au scénario de référence sans feu, permettant ainsi d'évaluer quantitativement la réduction de la capacité de protection. Les peuplements de basse altitude, soumis à des conditions climatiques plus chaudes et sèches, présentent des réductions de la capacité de protection après des feux d'été de l'ordre de 60 à 100 %. Il s'agit principalement de taillis et de futaies feuillues. À plus haute altitude, la réduction est de l'ordre de 30 à 65 %.En conclusion, ce travail de thèse propose une méthode originale pour quantifier la capacité de protection d'une forêt contre les chutes de blocs avant et après un incendie et alimente les connaissances sur ces deux aléas naturels et les risques associés. L'analyse multi-aléas conduite en fin de thèse permet d'appréhender les effets cascades potentiels à l'échelle du peuplement forestier et de quatre territoires bioclimatiquement homogènes des Alpes françaises. / Rockfalls are a major natural hazard in the French Alps due to their high probability of spatial and temporal occurrence. Forests constitute an efficient nature-based solution to mitigate this hazard while protecting human lives and assets. However, this ecosystem service may be disrupted by others natural hazards such as wildfires likely to be more frequent and intense in the current and future context of climate changes.This PhD thesis proposes to assess the effects of fires on the protection capability of forests against rockfalls in the French Alps.A methodology to evaluate the protection capability of a forest against rockfalls is first developed. It consists in modeling rockfalls propagations on 3886 forest plots taken in the French Alps to calculate three quantitative indicators that assess the reduction of the frequency (BARI), the intensity (MIRI) and the overall reduction (ORPI) of rockfalls due to the presence of a forest. These indicators are used to identify the predominant forest variables for assessing the protective effect: the length of forest along the slope, the basal area and the mean diameter. Forest stands with a heterogeneous distribution of diameters and made up of several tree species generally offer a better protection than monospecific and regular stands, thus underlining the influence of forest diversity. This work shows that coppices have the highest protection capabilities, followed by hight stands dominated by deciduous species and mixed stands; coniferous stands coming last.Spatio-temporal trends in fire weather in the French Alps are investigated over the period 1959-2015 and reveal a major contrast between Southern Alps which experienced a strong increase (in intensity, frequency, duration and seasonality) especially at high elevation, and Northern Alps, where a slight increase at low elevation and no significant trends at high elevation are observed. These results are then used to define three types of fires (winter, summer, and dry summer) for which post-fire tree mortality is studied at the tree and forest stands levels. These analyses show that only summer fires are likely to significantly affect the forest ecosystems, particularly at low elevations where deciduous stands (especially coppice) dominate.The effect of fires on the protection capabilities of forests is assessed by comparing rockfalls propagation simulations without fire to simulations after each type of fire in which the trees with a high post-fire mortality are not taken into account. The ORPI values for each forest plot and fire type are thus calculated and compared to the reference scenario without fire thus making it possible to quantitatively assess the reduction of the protection capabilities. Low elevation stands, subject to warmer and drier climatic conditions, show reductions of the protective effect in the range 60-100%. It mainly concerns coppices and deciduous stands. At high elevation, the reduction is in the range 30- 65%.In conclusion, this PhD thesis proposes an original method to quantify the protection capabilities of a forest against rockfalls before and after a fire and improve the knowledge of these two natural hazards and their associated risks. The multi-hazard analysis conducted at the end of the thesis makes it possible to understand the potential cascading effects in the main forest types and for four bioclimatically homogeneous territories of the French Alps.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-06-11T19:26:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2004-12-10Bitstream added on 2014-06-13T19:13:08Z : No. of bitstreams: 1 menquini_a_me_rcla.pdf: 6995160 bytes, checksum: be2e7b0c13c3c93bb2cdf685d7c9f0a7 (MD5) / A ocupação de espaço nas regiões costeiras constitui problemática de difícil solução, devido à complexidade de sua natureza. A rápida ocupação desordenada desses espaços, motivada pelo desenvolvimento econômico e potencializada por diferentes atividades turísticas, nessas últimas cinco décadas, resulta no desperdício de solo e recursos, que afetam os ecossistemas da área, provocando risco às populações fixa e flutuante. A análise geoambiental compreende a área entre a Ponta de Itaipu ao Maciço de Itatins, situada na linha de costa do Estado de São Paulo, na Região Metropolitana da Baixada Santista. Voltada às unidades geomorfológicas praias, manguezais, morros e encosta, a análise fornece dados para conhecimento dos processos críticos de erosão, deslizamento e inundação existentes na área desse estudo. O levantamento desses dados auxilia a equação dos principais fatores geológicos e geomorfológicos que influenciam o controle das áreas onde ocorre a interação entre os complexos ecossistemas urbanos e os ecossistemas costeiros em equilíbrio dinâmico. O estudo compreende diferentes fases: reconstrução histórica da colonização, emancipação dos municípios que integram a área de estudo, análise das características de ocupação, bem como a comparação de fotografias aéreas (1962 com 2002) e trabalho de campo. Assim, foram identificados dezesseis pontos de áreas críticas, constatando-se que processos críticos têm origem no uso indevido do solo, principalmente no desmatamento. Para a racionalização do uso do solo e recursos, que preservam os ecossistemas, minimizam e até evitam risco à população, propõe-se que seja trabalhada a cultura de segurança, indicada no Planejamento Ambiental dos programas direcionados ao Desenvolvimento Sustentável, contida na Agenda 21, que trata da Promoção do Desenvolvimento Sustentável... / The space occupation in coastal regions is always a difficult problem to be solved due to the environmental complexity of these areas. The rapid and disorganized occupation in the studied area is due to the economic development and by tourist activities in these last fifty decades. These combined actions had a direct impact into soil waste and other resources that affect the whole area ecosystems leading to risks to the fixed and seasoning population. A geoenvironment analysis was carried on in the coastal line of the São Paulo State between the Ponta de Itaipu and Maciço de Itatins located in the Região Metropolitana of the Baixada Santista. This analysis had been concentrated in the geomorphological units of beaches, mangroves and topographic elevated terrains within, this area, and its results leads to better understanding of the critical processes of erosion, floods and landslides presently in action. The resulting data also allows to the better knowledge of main geologic and geomorphologic factors equation that affects these areas where we have the interaction of complex urban ecosystems and coastal ecosystems of dynamic equilibrium. The historical reconstruction from the beginning of the colonial time to the present days with the analysis of the specific characteristics of the different types of occupation, the comparison of air photos dated from 1962 to those of 2002 and field work, allowed to the identification of sixteen critical points in this area. The critical processes is mainly a result of the undue soil management specially its deforestation. It is here proposed to these areas the use of the principle of safety culture as indicated by the Environmental Planning as mentioned in the Sustentation Development Program inside of the Agenda 21 that deals with the promotion of the sustainable development of the humans enrolments... (Complete abstract, access undermentioned electronic address)