Occurrences of extreme weather events are increasing due to the ongoing climate change driven by human actions. In parallel, this triggers a growing need for humanitarian action in the future to help those impacted by disasters. Disaster risk reduction and management has hereby become a central element of today's national and global governance in the aim of preventing and reducing humanitarian crises and minimizing economic loss often resulting from the impacts of natural hazards. The now more global effects from these events has resulted in a collective vision that is constantly concerned with the future and how to reduce the disaster risks it withholds. Due to climate change and a great number of other risks to our societies having been generated through humanity’s own actions, the possible indication of the global society attempting to gain control over uncontrollable risks through collective disaster risk reduction strategies between countries draws attention. This thesis provides a qualitative content analysis of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, which is the most current international disaster risk reduction policy adopted by the United Nations. The risk society theory by German sociologist Ulrich Beck is applied to this study to examine how the Sendai Framework can be seen as an outcome of a risk society that attempts to gain control over risks from the natural environment, which can be perceived as uncontrollable. The results of this study uncover that the Sendai Framework can be regarded as a product of a risk society through several different aspects, and that it generates an illusion of gaining control over uncontrollable risks.

La gestion préventive des risques naturels et technologiques constitue un enjeu de premier ordre pour les autorités étatiques que ce soit à l’égard des populations, des biens et de l’environnement ou pour le coût que la réalisation de tels risques peut représenter. Aussi, le décideur public, contraint juridiquement de protéger ces enjeux, est dans l’obligation, après avoir évalué et qualifié le risque, de déclencher une action publique préventive. C’est au cours d’un processus décisionnel complexe qu’il devra déterminer le degré de dangerosité du risque et les mesures préventives appropriées et proportionnées. S’effectue alors, pour le décideur public, la recherche du meilleur compromis possible entre les libertés et les objectifs de sécurité dans le cadre d’un difficile bilan coûts/avantages. Le droit tente d’encadrer ce processus décisionnel en laissant une marge d’appréciation importante et nécessaire au décideur public dans la détermination du degré d’acceptabilité du risque. C’est la recherche de ce compromis qui sera étudiée dans le cadre de cette thèse et plus particulièrement la manière dont le droit encadre cette recherche, gère cette question délicate et éventuellement contrôle les décisions entérinées. / Preventive management of natural and technological hazards is a major issue for state authorities, in regards to the people, property and the environment or in regards to the cost represented by the realization of such risks. Therefore, policy makers legally bound to protect these interests are required to initiate a preventive public action after evaluating and qualifying the risks. The level of hazard and the appropriateness and proportionality of preventive measures will be determined within a complex decision-making process. The policymakers then strive to reach the best possible compromise between freedom and security objectives within the framework of a delicate cost/benefit analysis. The law attempts to regulate this decision-making process by leaving a large and necessary margin of discretion to the public policy makers in determining the acceptability of the risk. This thesis will explore the process to reach this compromise, and in particular how the law governs it, manages this delicate issue and potentially controls the endorsed decisions.

<div>With increasing focus on large scale planning and allocation of resources for protection against future flood risk, it is necessary to analyze and improve the deficiencies in the conventional flood modeling approach through a better understanding of the interactions between river hydrodynamics and subsurface processes. Recent studies have shown that it is possible to improve the flood inundation modeling and mapping using physically-based integrated models that incorporate observable data through assimilation and simulate hydrologic fluxes using the fundamental laws of conservation of mass at multiple spatiotemporal scales. However, despite the significance of integrated modeling in hydrology, it has received relatively less attention within the context of flood hazard. The overall aim of this dissertation is to study the heterogeneity in complex physical processes that govern the watershed response during flooding and incorporate these effects in integrated models across large scales for improved flood risk estimation. Specifically, this dissertation addresses the following questions: (1) Can physical process incorporation using integrated models improve the characterization of antecedent conditions and increase the accuracy of the watershed response to flood events? (2) What factors need to be considered for characterizing scale-dependent physical processes in integrated models across large watersheds? (3) How can the computational efficiency and process representation be improved for modeling flood events at large scales? (4) Can the applicability of integrated models be improved for capturing the hydrodynamics of unprecedented flood events in complex urban systems?</div><div><br></div><div>To understand the combined effect of surface-subsurface hydrology and hydrodynamics on streamflow generation and subsequent inundation during floods, the first objective incorporates an integrated surface water-groundwater (SW-GW) modeling approach for simulating flood conditions. The results suggest that an integrated model provides a more realistic simulation of flood hydrodynamics for different antecedent soil conditions. Overall, the findings suggest that the current practice of simulating floods which assumes an impervious surface may not be providing realistic estimates of flood inundation, and that an integrated approach incorporating all the hydrologic and hydraulic processes in the river system must be adopted.</div><div><br></div><div>The second objective focuses on providing solutions to better characterize scale-dependent processes in integrated models by comparing two model structures across two spatial scales and analyzing the changes in flood responses. The results indicate that since the characteristic length scales of GW processes are larger than SW processes, the intrinsic scale (or resolution) of GW in integrated models should be coarser when compared to SW. The results also highlight the degradation of streamflow prediction using a single channel roughness when the stream length scales are increased. A distributed channel roughness variable along the stream length improves the modeled basin response. Further, the results highlight the ability of a dimensionless parameter 𝜂1, representing the ratio of the reach length in the study region to maximum length of the single stream draining at that point, for identifying which streams may require a distributed channel roughness.</div><div><br></div><div>The third objective presents a hybrid flood modeling approach that incorporates the advantages of both loosely-coupled (‘downward’) and integrated (‘upward’) modeling approaches by coupling empirically-based and physically-based approaches within a watershed. The computational efficiency and accuracy of the proposed hybrid modeling approach is tested across three watersheds in Indiana using multiple flood events and comparing the results with fully- integrated models. Overall, the hybrid modeling approach results in a performance comparable to a fully-integrated approach but at a much higher computational efficiency, while at the same time, providing objective-oriented flexibility to the modeler.</div><div><br></div><div>The fourth objective presents a physically-based but computationally-efficient approach for modeling unprecedented flood events at large scales in complex urban systems. The application of the proposed approach results in accurate simulation of large scale flood hydrodynamics which is shown using Hurricane Harvey as the test case. The results also suggest that the ability to control the mesh development using the proposed flexible model structure for incorporating important physical and hydraulic features is as important as integration of distributed hydrology and hydrodynamics.</div>

The significance of risk is growing in many Western societies, a phenomenon linked to increasing individualism, personal choice, and outcome uncertainty in multiple spheres of life. Despite being healthier and more physically protected from harm than any previous society, a serious concern for safety and risk control is emerging as a defining characteristic of modern social life. Within the context of a risk-averse society, this thesis investigates the nature and relevance of risk in natural resource recreation and tourism settings. Millions of people every day visit national parks and other protected areas around the world in which natural hazards inhere. Many visitors fail to recognise these hazards, creating moral, legal, and ethical issues for natural resource managers. People travel to national parks anticipating a degree of adventure, to escape routines, and to witness the grandeur of nature. Ironically, the very qualities that attract people to natural areas may also put them at risk. Managers of natural resource tourism and recreation areas in New Zealand are confronted with a paradox born out of visitor demand for nature experiences, a legal obligation to facilitate free access, and a growing social emphasis on health and safety. In particular, this study assesses the risk perceptions of visitors to the Fox and Franz Josef glaciers, popular tourist attractions on the West Coast of New Zealand's South Island, and explores the risk perceptions and beliefs of resource management agency staff. The study also investigates the issue of risk communication at these two sites, and the degree to which existing hazard messages are successful at encouraging appropriate visitor behaviour. Pictorial hazard warning signs are introduced to the sites and their effectiveness evaluated. The findings show that many visitors (especially international visitors) have relatively poor awareness of natural hazards, and behave in ways which potentially compromise physical safety. It is argued that perceptions and behaviour are a consequence of diverse individual and situational factors including limited knowledge of the sites, beliefs about management, poor comprehension of hazard warning signs, and freedom from the normative constraints of everyday life. In contrast to visitors, managers at the glacier sites consider the risks to be significant, and, potentially, severe. It is argued that managers' perceptions of risk are influenced by several important social and site-specific factors, including their own experiences of hazards at the glaciers, perceived legal and moral obligations, the organisational culture, and impressions of high societal expectation concerning safety. The situation is further complicated by the freedom of access principle in national parks, and increasing tourist demand for nature-based experiences. These factors governed beliefs about the subject of risk. This study identifies several dimensions of risk in nature-based recreation and tourism settings. Visitors are at risk of personal accident or injury at certain tourism attractions. Awareness of hazards is limited, visitor behaviour compromises safety, and existing communication strategies are only partially effective. Risk is also apparent in the agency responsible for management of outdoor recreation areas. Site managers perceive a risk in their failure to prevent visitors from harm, whereas senior managers identify risk as primarily financial, legal, and political. Collectively, these factors demonstrate that the phenomenon of risk is increasingly important in the tourism and recreation context, and has the potential to influence significantly both management and experience of protected natural areas in New Zealand.

<p>Рањивост од&nbsp; природних хазарда представља атрактивну тему<br />данашњице, која произилази из значаја који има за проблематику<br />природних непогода. Рањивост представља обавезну компоненту<br />сваке природне непогоде, тачније схвата се као &bdquo;контролна<br />полуга&ldquo; за смањење ризика од природних непогода. Социјална<br />рањивост од природних хазарда треба да укаже и опише ко или<br />шта је угрожено деловањем природног хазарда и у којој мери, као<br />и на обим и озбиљност последица које из потенцијалне колизије<br />могу произаћи. Из тог разлога, јавила се&nbsp; потреба да се социјална<br />рањивост измери, премери или процени у тежњи да се теоријске<br />поставке боље разумеју и добију практичну примену. Тај<br />комплексан приступ треба да пружи информације о нивоима<br />рањивости, као и отпорности одређених елемената у простору,&nbsp; а<br />потом и да омогући идентификацију покретачких фактора који<br />утичу на формирање и развој појаве социјалне рањивости. С<br />обзиром да је процена социјалне рањивости базирана на<br />званичним статистичким подацима, који дају уопштену, стерилну<br />слику стварности, за&nbsp; њено употпуњавање и хуманизацију<br />неопходно је истраживање перцепције, знања, ставова и искуства<br />становништва са природним хазардима и природним непогодама.<br />Најбољи приступ за испуњење тог циља је анкетно истраживање<br />које треба да омогући увид у поменуте карактеристике код<br />појединца, а потом обрадом добијених података и њиховим<br />уопштавањем стиче се потпуна слика о друштву и његовом<br />односу према природним хазардима и спремност за природне<br />непогоде.</p> / <p>Ranjivost od&nbsp; prirodnih hazarda predstavlja atraktivnu temu<br />današnjice, koja proizilazi iz značaja koji ima za problematiku<br />prirodnih nepogoda. Ranjivost predstavlja obaveznu komponentu<br />svake prirodne nepogode, tačnije shvata se kao &bdquo;kontrolna<br />poluga&ldquo; za smanjenje rizika od prirodnih nepogoda. Socijalna<br />ranjivost od prirodnih hazarda treba da ukaže i opiše ko ili<br />šta je ugroženo delovanjem prirodnog hazarda i u kojoj meri, kao<br />i na obim i ozbiljnost posledica koje iz potencijalne kolizije<br />mogu proizaći. Iz tog razloga, javila se&nbsp; potreba da se socijalna<br />ranjivost izmeri, premeri ili proceni u težnji da se teorijske<br />postavke bolje razumeju i dobiju praktičnu primenu. Taj<br />kompleksan pristup treba da pruži informacije o nivoima<br />ranjivosti, kao i otpornosti određenih elemenata u prostoru,&nbsp; a<br />potom i da omogući identifikaciju pokretačkih faktora koji<br />utiču na formiranje i razvoj pojave socijalne ranjivosti. S<br />obzirom da je procena socijalne ranjivosti bazirana na<br />zvaničnim statističkim podacima, koji daju uopštenu, sterilnu<br />sliku stvarnosti, za&nbsp; njeno upotpunjavanje i humanizaciju<br />neophodno je istraživanje percepcije, znanja, stavova i iskustva<br />stanovništva sa prirodnim hazardima i prirodnim nepogodama.<br />Najbolji pristup za ispunjenje tog cilja je anketno istraživanje<br />koje treba da omogući uvid u pomenute karakteristike kod<br />pojedinca, a potom obradom dobijenih podataka i njihovim<br />uopštavanjem stiče se potpuna slika o društvu i njegovom<br />odnosu prema prirodnim hazardima i spremnost za prirodne<br />nepogode.</p> / <p>Today,&nbsp; vulnerability&nbsp; to natural hazards is one of the most attractive topic, which stems from its importance for the research field of natural disasters. Vulnerability is a mandatory component of any natural disasters, more precisely understood as the &quot;control lever&quot; to reduce the natural disasters risk. Social vulnerability should point to and describe who or what is at risk from natural hazards and the extent and severity of the consequences of potential collisions. For this reason, there is a need to&nbsp; measure or estimate social vulnerability, which will enable theoretical assumptions to be better understood and receive practical application. This complex approach should provide information on the levels of vulnerability, as well as the resistance of certain elements in space,&nbsp; and then to allow the identification of the driving factors that influence the formation and development of the social vulnerability phenomena. Social vulnerability assessment is based on official statistics, which provide a general, sterile picture of reality, but its humanization is necessary through exploring of perceptions, knowledge, awareness and experiences of the society to natural hazards and natural disasters. The best approach for achieving that goal is the survey that should provide insight into the mentioned characteristics of the individual, and then processing the data and their generalization gets the full picture of the society and its relation to natural hazards and natural disasters preparedness.</p>

Étant donné que les catastrophes sont un phénomène spatial, l’application de systèmes d’information géographique (SIG) est un outil pratique et fiable pour le processus de réduction des risques de catastrophe (RRC). Les SIG peuvent servir le processus de RRC en tant que base de données pour la collecte et l’intégration de données, ainsi que pour l’incorporation de données multi‐sources, en tant que systèmes d’observation, en tant qu’outil pour la production de cartes de risques, en tant que calculateur d’exposition, constructeur de modèles déterminant les vulnérabilités des éléments, en temps quasi réel, traqueur de crise, etc… Mais ces applications SIG ont été intégrées de manière inégale à travers les différentes phases du cycle de RRC. De plus, l'utilisation efficace de ces technologies nécessite des recherches et des développements plus poussés, en particulier dans les pays en développement où de nombreux obstacles entravent l'utilisation des SIG pour la protection civile. Cette tâche devient encore plus compliquée au niveau local en région rurale comme dans notre zone d’étude Baalbek‐Hermel, Gouvernorat du Liban. Le manque de ressources humaines et financières et des données spatiales critiques lacunaires limitent l’utilisation des SIG pour améliorer la décision en matière de RRC ? Dans quelle mesure le SIG pourrait‐il être efficace dans les actions de RRC dans un pays en développement comme le Liban, où le nombre d’enjeux exposés augmentent sans cesse et où le gouvernement a d'autres priorités urgentes que de s'engager dans un plan de RRC? Plusieurs études de cas menées à Baalbek‐Hermel servent à tester les hypothèses retenues et à discuter de l’adoption et de l’adaptation de techniques SIG afin de les rendre efficaces et capables de servir tout le cycle de RRC ; évaluation des dangers, de la vulnérabilité et des dommages, planification d’urgence et d’évacuation, systèmes d’alerte précoce, zonage des terres, données en temps quasi réel pour l’intervention, rétablissement et renforcement de la résilience. Les défis posés par le déploiement de ces technologies SIG dans chacune des phases susmentionnées du cycle de la RRC et la manière dont ils peuvent être surmontés sont discutés, en considérant les approches autochtones pour l’application de technologies et d’innovations en matière de RRC. Les résultats de cette thèse offrent le potentiel de surmonter certains des obstacles qui entravent l'utilisation des SIG pour une RRC efficace dans les pays en développement. Ainsi, les praticiens de RRC au Liban et dans d'autres pays en développement pourraient exploiter ce potentiel pour tenter de réduire la vulnérabilité aux dangers et améliorer la capacité de prévention des catastrophes. / Given that natural disasters are spatial phenomenon, the application of geographical information systems (GIS) has proven to be a convenient and reliable tool for the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) process. GIS can serve DRR as a database for data gathering, integration and incorporation,an output viewer, a tool for hazard maps production, a calculator for exposure, a model builderfor determining assets’ vulnerabilities, a near real time crisis tracker, etc… Nevertheless, GIS applications have been integrated unevenly across the different phases of the DRR cycle.Moreover, the effective use of these technologies requires further research and development,especially in developing countries where numerous barriers hamper the use of GIS for civil protection. The task is further complicated at the local level in rural areas such as our study area Baalbek‐Hermel, Governorate of Lebanon. Restrictions include limited human and financial resources and a lack of critical spatial data required to support GIS application to DRR. To what extent could GIS be efficient in DRR actions in a developing country like Lebanon where themajority of assets at risk is ever‐growing and the government has other urgent priorities than tocommit to DRR plans? Several case‐studies in Baalbek‐Hermel were taken to test these assumptions and discuss the adaptation of GIS techniques to make them effective and to be able to serve the whole DRR cycle; hazard, vulnerability, risk and damage assessment, emergency and evacuation planning, land‐use zoning, recovery and resilience building. Challenges in the deployment of GIS technologies in each afore mentioned phase of the DRR cycle and how they may be overcome were discussed, considering indigenous approaches for the application of technologies and innovations in DRR. The results of this dissertation suggested ways to control some of the barriers hampering the effective use of GIS for DRR in developing countries. Thus,DRR practitioners in Lebanon and other developing countries could harness this potential in anattempt to reduce hazard vulnerability and improve disaster reduction capacity.

No description available.

One of the great challenges facing human systems today is how to prepare for, manage, and adapt successfully to the profound and rapid changes wreaked by disasters. Wellington, New Zealand, is a capital city at significant risk of devastating earthquake and tsunami, potentially requiring mass evacuations with little or short notice. Subsequent hardship and suffering due to widespread property damage and infrastructure failure could cause large areas of the Wellington Region to become uninhabitable for weeks to months. Previous research has shown that positive health and well-being are associated with disaster-resilient outcomes. Preventing adverse outcomes before disaster strikes, through developing strengths-based skill sets in health-protective attitudes and behaviours, is increasingly advocated in disaster research, practise, and management. This study hypothesised that well-being constructs involving an affective heuristic play vital roles in pathways to resilience as proximal determinants of health-protective behaviours. Specifically, this study examined the importance of health-related quality of life and subjective well-being in motivating evacuation preparedness, measured in a community sample (n=695) drawn from the general adult population of Wellington’s isolated eastern suburbs. Using a quantitative epidemiological approach, the study measured the prevalence of key quality of life indicators (physical and mental health, emotional well-being or “Sense of Coherence”, spiritual well-being, social well-being, and life satisfaction) using validated psychometric scales; analysed the strengths of association between these indicators and the level of evacuation preparedness at categorical and continuous levels of measurement; and tested the predictive power of the model to explain the variance in evacuation preparedness activity. This is the first study known to examine multi-dimensional positive health and global well-being as resilient processes for engaging in evacuation preparedness behaviour. A cross-sectional study design and quantitative survey were used to collect self-report data on the study variables; a postal questionnaire was fielded between November 2008 and March 2009 to a sampling frame developed through multi-stage cluster randomisation. The survey response rate was 28.5%, yielding a margin of error of +/- 3.8% with 95% confidence and 80% statistical power to detect a true correlation coefficient of 0.11 or greater. In addition to the primary study variables, data were collected on demographic and ancillary variables relating to contextual factors in the physical environment (risk perception of physical and personal vulnerability to disaster) and the social environment (through the construct of self-determination), and other measures of disaster preparedness. These data are reserved for future analyses. Results of correlational and regression analyses for the primary study variables show that Wellingtonians are highly individualistic in how their well-being influences their preparedness, and a majority are taking inadequate action to build their resilience to future disaster from earthquake- or tsunami-triggered evacuation. At a population level, the conceptual multi-dimensional model of health-related quality of life and global well-being tested in this study shows a positive association with evacuation preparedness at statistically significant levels. However, it must be emphasised that the strength of this relationship is weak, accounting for only 5-7% of the variability in evacuation preparedness. No single dimension of health-related quality of life or well-being stands out as a strong predictor of preparedness. The strongest associations for preparedness are in a positive direction for spiritual well-being, emotional well-being, and life satisfaction; all involve a sense of existential meaningfulness. Spiritual well-being is the only quality of life variable making a statistically significant unique contribution to explaining the variance observed in the regression models. Physical health status is weakly associated with preparedness in a negative direction at a continuous level of measurement. No association was found at statistically significant levels for mental health status and social well-being. These findings indicate that engaging in evacuation preparedness is a very complex, holistic, yet individualised decision-making process, and likely involves highly subjective considerations for what is personally relevant. Gender is not a factor. Those 18-24 years of age are least likely to prepare and evacuation preparedness increases with age. Multidimensional health and global well-being are important constructs to consider in disaster resilience for both pre-event and post-event timeframes. This work indicates a need for promoting self-management of risk and building resilience by incorporating a sense of personal meaning and importance into preparedness actions, and for future research into further understanding preparedness motivations.

Atmospheric features, such as tropical cyclones, act as a driving mechanism for many of the major hazards affecting coastal areas around the world. Accurate and efficient quantification of tropical cyclone surge hazard is essential to the development of resilient coastal communities, particularly given continued sea level trend concerns. Recent major tropical cyclones that have impacted the northeastern portion of the United States have resulted in devastating flooding in New York City, the most densely populated city in the US. As a part of national effort to re-evaluate coastal inundation hazards, the Federal Emergency Management Agency used the Joint Probability Method to re-evaluate surge hazard probabilities for Flood Insurance Rate Maps in the New York – New Jersey coastal areas, also termed the New York Bight. As originally developed, this method required many combinations of storm parameters to statistically characterize the local climatology for numerical model simulation. Even though high-performance computing efficiency has vastly improved in recent years, researchers have utilized different “Optimal Sampling” techniques to reduce the number of storm simulations needed in the traditional Joint Probability Method. This manuscript presents results from the simulation of over 350 synthetic tropical cyclones designed to produce significant surge in the New York Bight using the hydrodynamic Advanced Circulation numerical model, bypassing the need for Optimal Sampling schemes. This data set allowed for a careful assessment of joint probability distributions utilized for this area and the impacts of current assumptions used in deriving new flood-risk maps for the New York City area.